Friday, February 28, 2014

Why Natural Gas Prices Are About to Plunge

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Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (NYSE: BKD)

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. operates senior living communities in the United States. It offers independent living, assisted living, Alzheimer’s and dementia care, rehabilitation and skilled nursing, continuing retirement care, and life care services for residents. The company also provides Care3 Wellness programs, which include education, rehabilitation, and exercise; and massage therapy, chair yoga, and Tai Chi, as well as health education and group exercise classes. Brookdale Senior Living Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
To review Brookdale’s stock, please take a look at the 18-month chart of BKD (Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.) below with my added notations:
18-month chart of BKD (Brookdale Senior Living, Inc.)
It’s easy to see why traders could think BKD was never going anywhere since the stock just went sideways all year in 2013. However, over that period of time the stock had also created a strong level of resistance at $30 (blue), which constituted a 52-week high resistance. A break through that level would most likely mean higher prices for the stock. As you can see from the chart, BKD finally broke higher this past Friday on massive volume.
The Tale of the Tape: BKD broke out to a new 52-week high. A long trade could be made near $30 with a stop placed below that level. A break back below $30 would negate the forecast for a continued move higher.
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5 Best Dividend Stocks to Buy in March: KO, DPS, GM, LVS, CSCO.

As fourth-quarter earnings season winds down, 72% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings estimates — ahead of the 71% average beat rate from the past year.
Earnings for the holiday quarter are 8.5% higher than they were last year, a better rate than in any of the previous five quarters.
And as U.S. companies rake in more cash, many of them are upping their dividend payouts.  (more)

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Forget Stocks, the Real Money Can Be Made in This Sector

The market had a rough start to 2014, but since February, stocks have made a nice move higher, with the S&P 500 up about 3.5% since the beginning of the month. Yet the real action of late has taken place in many of the hitherto beaten-down commodities markets, where money flows now have come into many sectors such as gold, silver, energy and agriculture.
The gains in the commodities market over the past four weeks have sent the price of the benchmark exchange-traded fund (ETF) pegged to the commodities index, the PowerShares DB Commodity Tracking Index (NYSE: DBC), higher by nearly 5%. And since the low on Jan. 9, DBC has jumped 6.4%, a very nice move in a sector that, unlike stocks, had a very rough go of it in 2013.  (more)

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60% Upside in These Beaten-Down Oil Stocks: DO, NE, ATW, ESV, RIG

After suffering a brutal past few months, the offshore-drilling sector looks set to rally...
For much of the past three years, the price of crude oil has stayed stubbornly above $95 per barrel. It's amazing when you consider that in 2004, oil was just $40 a barrel.
These persistently high prices have produced terrific business conditions for companies that supply drilling equipment and services to large oil firms. According to Barclays research, global oil and gas exploration spending has increased by $291 billion (nearly doubling) in the past five years.
However, over the past few months, some of the world's premier offshore-drilling companies have gotten hammered. Shares of Transocean, the leading deepwater-drilling company, have fallen around 20%. The other giant deep-water specialist, Diamond Offshore, is down over 30%.  (more)

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This Will Send The Price Of Gold Skyrocketing / February 27, 2014
Today one of the most highly respected fund managers in Singapore spoke with King World News about exactly what is going to send the price of gold skyrocketing.  Grant Williams, who is portfolio manager of the Vulpes Precious Metals Fund, also spoke about what this will mean for investors around the world when this historic move unfolds in the gold market.
Eric King:  “Grant, the gold market is very quiet here all of the sudden.”
Williams:  “Yes, it sure is, Eric.  There are plenty of things to be concerned about, but at this point gold is struggling to get through some fairly important technical levels around the $1,340 level.  It’s had a hell of a run….
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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Bon-Ton Stores (NASDAQ: BONT) Stock Could Plummet Another 50% in Next 90 Days

U.S. retailers continue to show signs of improvement across the board. According to the National Retail Federation, 2013 ended with a 3.7% increase in sales, and 2014 is predicted to continue the trend with 4.1% sales growth. However, consumer confidence is weakening, with the Conference Board's index falling more than forecast in February.

This dynamic is interesting. It seems that the improved retail environment is a direct beneficiary of lending institutions loosening their requirements, thus simply lending more money to bored consumers to spend. To put it bluntly, I don't expect the positive retail numbers to continue for much longer.  (more)

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Rick Rule: Why the Resource Supercycle Is Still Intact

by Rick Rule, Chairman and Founder, Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd.
Casey Research

Natural-resource-based industries are very capital intensive, and hence extremely cyclical. It is not unreasonable to say that as a natural-resource investor, you are either contrarian or you will be a victim. These markets are risky and volatile!
Why cyclicality?
Let’s talk about cyclicality first. Some of the cyclicality of these industries is a function of their being extraordinarily capital intensive. This lengthens the companies’ response times to market cycles. Strengthening copper prices, for example, do not immediately result in increased copper production in many market cycles, because the production cycle requires new deposits to be discovered, financed, and constructed—a process that can consume a decade.
Continue Reading at…
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Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. (NYSE: ST)

Sensata Technologies Holding N.V, through its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of sensors and controls primarily in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, and Europe. The company operates in two segments, Sensors and Controls. The company offers its products primarily under the Sensata, Klixon, Airpax, and Dimensions brand names. It serves original equipment manufacturers and suppliers in the automotive, industrial, and commercial end-markets; and industrial and commercial manufacturers and suppliers in the climate control, appliance, semiconductor, datacomm, telecommunications, and aerospace industries, as well as motor and compressor suppliers.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of ST (Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ST (Sensata Technologies Holding N.V.)
For the most part, ST has been trading sideways for the last (7) months. The two most common price levels on this stock during that period of time have been $37 and $39. Each of those prices has been support and/or resistances multiple times. In addition, $41 has been hit as resistance on (2) different occasions and would be a 52-week high if ST could break above it.

The Tale of the Tape: ST is currently trading between $39 and $41. A long trade could be made on a pullback to $39 or on a break above $41. A short trade could be made on a break below $39.
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With Gold And Gas Rebounding, Is It Time To Buy These 3 Commodities? : CORN, Uranium, Silver

When it comes to commodities, investors typically make a classic mistake: They shun them when they are out of favor, and they load up on them when prices are surging.
The contrarian view is so much more profitable.
For example, I noted a few months ago that an extended period of oversupply had pushed coffee prices down to multi-year lows, but added that "signs are emerging that current coffee prices are causing too much distress among coffee growers. Yearlong protests in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has led the government to take action to prop up prices. The iPath Pure Beta ETN (Nasdaq: CAFE), which had lost more than 30% of its value at that point in 2013, has rebounded 50% since then. Coffee prices are simply responding to the first rule of economics: Falling prices lead to falling supply, which eventually moves below levels of demand, providing a boost to prices. In the case of coffee, a change in growing conditions also affected those factors.  (more)
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Here Is The FT’s Gold Price Manipulation Article That Was Removed

from ZeroHedge:
Two days ago the FT released a clear, informative and fact-based article, titled simply enough “Gold price rigging fears put investors on alert” in which author Madison Marriage, citing a report by the Fideres consultancy, revealed that global gold prices may have been manipulated on 50 per cent of occasions between January 2010 and December 2013.
To those who hve been following the price action of gold in the past four years, gold manipulation is not only not surprising, but accepted and widely appreciated (because like the Chinese those who buy gold would rather do so at artificially low rather than artificially high fiat prices) and at this point, after every other product has been exposed to be blatantly and maliciously manipulated by the banking estate, it is taken for granted that the central banks’ primary fiat alternative, and biggest threat to the monetary status quo, has not avoided a comparable fate.
Read More @
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Agricultural ETF Rises Sharply

Above is a chart of the DBA — the agricultural ETF. Since late January, it has risen from a low of 24.4 to ~26.6 — an increase of about 9%. The primary reason is the driest growing season in Brazil in the last 60 years, which has effect both softs (coffee) and grains (soy beans).

The weekly chart places the move in a more historical context. Prices have been bottoming for most of 2013, Falling from a price spike in 2010-2011. Over the last few weeks, the weekly chart has printed some very strong price bars, moving prices through the 10, 20 and 50 day EMA. Also notice that the MACD and CMF are in a position to become far more bullish in their overall measurements.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2014

3 Turnaround Stocks With 50% Upside

Thanks to an impressive recent rally, a number of stocks that had temporarily pulled back to bargain levels have already surged back to fresh highs. If you're looking for solid bargains among companies that are at the top of their game... good luck.
To find true bargains, you need to look at companies that have stumbled. Operational missteps are about the only reason for a stock to be out of favor these days. The key is to find the companies that have the ingredients to fix their problems.
Here's a look at three stocks trading well below recent highs -- each with catalysts to regain its footing in coming quarters.  (more)

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This Is Still The Chart of the Decade

We all have different time frames and risk objectives. That’s something that rarely gets discussed but is probably the most important detail of our investing lives that must be defined. In my work, I incorporate a top/down approach starting with longer-term charts and work my way down to shorter-term time frames. One of my favorite long-term charts is something I coined “The Chart of the Decade” back in 2012. This is the secular shift out of Latin America and into more developed nations.
This chart represents the MSCI EAFE ETF which consists of large- and mid-cap developed market equities, excluding the U.S. and Canada ($EFA) compared with the Latin America 40 ETF ($ILF). I originally brought this up when prices were first breaking out of this monster base. But look at how nicely this one has developed (no put intended):
2-24-14 efa vs ilf
There are a few things we can take from this. The first one is obvious: big round bottoms can be very powerful. We’re seeing similar bases in $USDCAD as well as in the Emerging Markets vs S&P500 spread. The second thing we should be paying attention to is just that, the underperformance in Emerging Markets. Latin America is just another example of money flowing out of this emerging space and into more developed nations. And not just the US, but into Europe and Japan, especially on a relative basis.
This is a huge secular shift that we’re watching and trying our best to take advantage of it. Latin America and Emerging Markets as a group were major outperformers for a long time. This has clearly changed and based on these huge bottoms, it looks like this trend is probably here to stay.
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Bet on Brazil: 3 Prudent Choices

In December last year, Brazil’s economy posted its worst quarterly performance in four years. The economy shrank by 0.5% compared to the third quarter, or by 1.9% on an annualized basis. This was an indication of the challenges the country has been facing for some time now.

Brazil’s Challenges

Growing by 7.5% in 2010, the country’s economy had become a favorite destination for global investment. Since then, Brazil’s fortunes have declined rapidly due to several factors. These include fiscal profligacy, infrastructural bottlenecks and excessive red tape. For instance, the state has set price ceilings on fuel to curb inflation. This, in turn, has a detrimental impact on the fortunes of government owned Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (PBR - Analyst Report).

However, steep inflation continues to be the greatest of the country’s woes. A series of rate hikes since April last year have reduced the rate of price rise to their lowest point in a year. However, inflation still remains significantly higher than the official target center of 4.5%.  (more)
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India to Take Out Resistance and Breakout?

It's been a rough few years for Emerging markets, and India is no exception! From a shorter-term view the India ETF (EPI) is reflecting some year-to-date relative strength compared to EEM, which has now brought it up against a yearlong resistance line (see the chart below).
A breakout so far has NOT happened for EPI at this time. A push above resistance would reflect positive price action for EPI and would most likely attract buyers!

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Extremely interesting developments in the open interest in both gold and silver this week!!
In silver, we see the commercials going FAR more short and the large specs going far more long.  Really interesting is the price rise, yet the speculators, on the surface, are not buying up long contracts by the bucket  – but they covered so MANY short contracts that their net long position went skyrocketing upwards.  For the commercials part, both the producer merchant and the swap dealers added huge on the short side to the tune of over 12,000 new contracts total.
Notice the silver commercials added over 50 MILLION ounces net short!!
So, in my numbers world, with price rising, that tells me the commercials led the way and FORCED the speculators out of short positions.  Notice a very modest pickup of short contracts by the small specs.  Those guys know the top is near and they are getting ready to ride the rocket downhill as the commercials crash price in the coming days.
In gold, we see very similar type actions with the commercials combined picking up an additional 16,000+ short contracts and they exhibit very strong short pickups on both the producer merchant and the swap dealers.
Those bankers and their cohorts absolutely slammed the speculators by forcing PRICE to RISE!!!
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Hedge Funds Most Short Into Latest All Time High Ramp Since September 2012 / by Tyler Durden / 02/24/2014 12:27 -0500
As we have repeatedly pointed out, the one surest way to generate profits in these manipulated, broken markets is to take advantage of the one legacy trade that makes zero sense in a world in which the global central banks are the ultimate providers of downside risk protection: i.e., going long the most shorted names. We did just this most recently past Friday, when we listed the latest hedge fund long hotel, as well as the names most shorted by the “sophisticated” investors, saying “anyone going long these names is virtually assured to outperform the market over the next year.” One day later and this “strategy” is already generating outsized alpha, with the most shorted names solidly outperforming the market.
And as the case may, this latest bout of “most shorted” outperformance is set to continue for one main reason.As the CFTC reported last friday, institutional investors using Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures turned bearish this month for the first time since September 2012.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2014

A Number Of Frightening Black Swans Will Surface In 2014 / February 24, 2014
With gold and silver surging, oil remaining over $100, and the US Dollar Index desperately trying to cling to the 80 level, today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years, and whose business partner is billionaire Eric Sprott, warned King World News that a number of black swans are going to surface in 2014.  John Embry also discussed the implications of the coming chaos for investors around the world.
Embry:  “I’m offended by some of the propaganda coming out of the mainstream media.  The World Gold Council came out with some figures for Chinese demand that dramatically understated the truth, and essentially falsified the demand for gold from China….
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Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) 1,000% Gainer Set to Return Additional Double-Digit Profits

When a stock is up more than 30% in just the past three months, you can say it has "the juice." In the case of Southern California-based Monster Beverage (NASDAQ: MNST) "the juice" is generated by its uber-cool energy drinks.
The company's namesake beverage, Monster Energy Drink, is what propelled it into national and global prominence. But like any good beverage company, Monster offers all sorts of brands for all sorts of tastes, including Java Monster, Worx Energy, Peace Tea, Hansen's, Blue Sky and a host of others.
The success of Monster's existing brands has made it one of the biggest beverage industry success stories of the past decade, and that success has translated into huge success on Wall Street. MNST stock is up 1,000% in the past 10 years, easily vaulting the shares to rock star status among investors.  (more)

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American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO)

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an apparel and accessories retailer in the United States and Canada. The company’s retail stores offer denims, sweaters, fleece, outerwear, graphic T-shirts, footwear, and accessories for 15 to 25-year old men and women under the American Eagle Outfitters brand name; and intimates and personal care products for girls under the aerie brand name. As of February 2, 2013, it operated 893 American Eagle Outfitters stores and 151 aerie stand-alone stores, as well as 49 franchised stores in 13 countries. The company also sells and ships merchandise through its e-commerce Websites, including and to 81 countries worldwide.
To review American’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of AEO (American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.)
Over the last (6) months AEO has traded mostly sideways, but over the most recent month the stock has formed a nice trend line of support (red). Always remember that any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. So, AEO’s trend line is important to the stock since it has been tested on three different occasions. In addition, the stock has a key level at $14 (blue) that is currently acting as resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: AEO has a trend line support and a $14 resistance. A long position could be entered on a break above $14, with a stop placed below that level. A short position could be entered if AEO were to break below $13.50, which would be a break of the trend line support.
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Acorda Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: ACOR)

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the identification, development, and commercialization of therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS), spinal cord injury (SCI), and other central nervous system disorders primarily in the United States. Its products include Ampyra (dalfampridine), a potassium channel blocker to improve walking in patients with MS; and Zanaflex Capsules and Zanaflex tablets (tizanidine hydrochloride), a short-acting drug for the management of spasticity. The company also markets products for the improvement of walking in adult patients with MS under the Fampyra name internationally.
To review Acorda’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ACOR (Acorda Therapeutics, Inc.)
Over the last year ACOR has consistently moved lower. During that time the stock had also formed a nice trend line of resistance (blue). Always remember that any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. As you can see, ACOR’s trend line had been tested multiple times. On Monday the stock finally broke through that trend line.

The Tale of the Tape: ACOR has broken above its trend line resistance. A long position could be entered on a pullback to the trend line, with a stop placed below that level. A short position could be entered if ACOR were to break back below the trendline.
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Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS) The Only Luxury Retailer Worth Buying Now Could Soar 33%

When a company markedly outperforms its peer group, it always captures my attention. Why, I wonder, has it done so much better than its direct competitors?
In a little over two years, Michael Kors (NYSE: KORS) shares have surged almost 300%. KORS opened at $25 on the day of its December 2011 IPO and now trades near its all-time high just under $100. In contrast, Coach (NYSE: COH) has tumbled 20% during that time frame, while Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) is only up about 13%.
Michael Kors' expensive handbags and watches, among its other luxury goods, are coveted. To satisfy strong customer demand, the company is working to open new stores around the world. In the past three quarters, it added 133 new outlets, 91 of which are company-owned and 42 are licensed. Michael Kors now has 533 stores worldwide. (more)

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The One Thing You Must Know to Hit It Big with a Biotech Stock

When you're evaluating a biotech, or even a full-fledged pharmaceutical company, you'll want to look at its product pipeline, upcoming catalysts, and financial indicators.
But the most important asset it possesses, the heartbeat that drives everything else, is its intellectual property (patent) portfolio...
That's what will make it attractive for acquisition, merger, or licensing deals.
And it's what protects its products from marauding generic drug manufacturers, who will produce copycat therapies and sell them at cutthroat prices.
For a drug development company, that spells disaster.
When a drug goes generic, it's not unusual for the original brand manufacturer's market share to drop more than 40%...(more)

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Top Three Closed-End Funds With Yields Over… 8%

Open Your Eyes to Closed-End Funds
Closed-end funds (CEFs) are different from open-end funds (commonly known as mutual funds) in some significant ways.
For example, CEFs trade on an exchange intraday, just like exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
However, mutual funds and ETFs issue and redeem shares at their net asset value (NAV), so the number of shares fluctuates due to demand.
Conversely, CEFs have a fixed number of shares. The price of a CEF is determined by supply and demand in the secondary market, so the shares can trade at a persistent premium or discount to the underlying NAV.  (more)

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Monday, February 24, 2014

Mosaic Co (NYSE: MOS)

The Mosaic Company produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients for the agriculture industry worldwide. It operates in two segments, Phosphates and Potash. The company also offers phosphate-based animal feed ingredients; and produces and sells potash for use as fertilizers and animal feed ingredients, as well as for use in various industrial applications. Its potash products are also used for de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. The Company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts through a network of sales offices, crop nutrient blending and bagging facilities, port terminals, and warehouse distribution facilities.
To review Mosaic’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of MOS (The Mosiac Company) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of MOS (The Mosiac Company)
MOS has been trading sideways for the last 3 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $50 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $44 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels the rectangle pattern has created.

The Tale of the Tape: MOS has clear levels of support ($44) and resistance ($50). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $44, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunities would be on either a break below $44 or on a rally back up to $50.
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COMEX SET TO IMPLODE, ENORMOUS GOLD BUYING & MUCH MORE – Andrew Maguire: / Sunday, February 23, 2014
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Cray Inc. (NASDAQ: CRAY) Supercomputer Stock Could Rally 25%-Plus in the Next 90 Days

I have studied technical analysis for many years. What I have discovered might come as a surprise to many: The majority of technical analysis is pure nonsense.

While patterns and indicators appear to repeat themselves in a consistent manner, most of the time these patterns have zero predictive value and are not consistently repeatable when properly statistically tested in the stock market.

Hindsight bias and flaws in human perception are the main reasons that technical analysis remains popular yet fails again and again when applied to real-time decision making in the stock market.

However, there are two technical analysis patterns that I have found that do actually put the odds in your favor when tested over a series of trades. Remember, this does not mean that every trade entered due to these patterns will be a winner. However, it does mean that more trade entries than not will results in profits. (more)

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Maguire – The Reason Why Silver May Be Set To Skyrocket / February 23, 2014
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News about the massive amount of gold being smuggled into India and the reason why silver may now be set to skyrocket.  Below is what Maguire had to say in Part III of this incredibly powerful series of interviews.
Maguire:  “Here is the problem, and why these banks are willing to throw all credibility out of the window (with wrong-footed bearish calls on gold):  They are heavily underwater in their physical positions in London, and they are desperate to replace these disappearing inventories….
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Organovo Holdings Inc (NYSEMKT: ONVO)

Organovo Holdings, Inc. develops three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting technology for creating functional human tissues on demand for research and medical applications. The company’s 3D NovoGen bioprinting technology works across various tissue and cell types, and allows for the placement of cells in desired pattern. It offers NovoGen MMX Bioprinter, a commercial hardware and software bioprinter platform to create tissues for bioprinting research and development. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in San Diego, California.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of ONVO (Organovo Holdings) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ONVO (Organovo Holdings)
Overall ONVO has done quite well over the last 12 months having gone from a low of almost $3 to a high of over $13. The two most common price levels on this stock during the 3 months have been $8 (blue) and $10 (red). Each of those prices has been both support and resistances multiple times. In addition, $12 was hit as resistance on 3 different occasions in January. So, the stock commonly finds the increments of $2 important.

The Tale of the Tape: ONVO is currently trading between $8 and $10. A long trade could be made on a pullback to $8 or on a break back above $10. Short trades could be made on a rally up to $10 or on a break below $8.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
  None scheduled        
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Dec.
-- 13.7% y-o-y
9 am FHFA home price index Dec.   -- 7.6%
10 am Consumer confidence Feb.   80.5 80.7
10 am New home sales Jan.   405.000 414,000
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 2/22
N/A 336,000
8:30 am Durable goods orders Jan.   -2.5% -4.2%
10 am Janet Yellen testimony at Senate        
8:30 am GDP revision 4Q   2.4% 3.2%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Feb.   56.0 59.6
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment Feb.   81.5 81.2
10 am Pending home sales Jan.   -- -8.7%
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Saturday, February 22, 2014

11 Core Traits of Winning Traders

Want to know if you will be successful even before you dive too deep into the world of trading and spend too much time in front of your computer? The successful trader is wired very differently than the unsuccessful trader.
First of all, we need to define what a successful trader is so we are on the same page. Let's consider a successful trader someone who is active in the markets (five or more trades a month) and makes a consistent, low-risk living over a multi-year period of time.
The successful trader understands that moves in the markets are a result of mass psychology and pure supply and demand. We make money in the markets by being masters of that human psychology and supply and demand. (more)

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Andrew Maguire – China’s Gold Buying “Enormous” Right Now / February 21, 2014
With gold getting a weekly close above the important $1,320 level, today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that despite rumors to the contrary, China’s gold buying is “enormous” right now.  Below is what Maguire had to say in Part I of a timely and powerful series of interviews that will be released today.
Eric King:  “What kind of tonnage have we been seeing taken out of the gold market by China and others?”
Maguire:  “Eric, it’s enormous.  People were saying, ‘Once we get to $1,300 they (China) are going to back off.’  They have not backed off.  In fact, it (their physical gold buying) has accelerated….
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Dead Banksters: A Sign That We Are Close To The END — “V” The Guerrilla Economist

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Dennis Gartman Part II: Natural Gas Could Easily Spike To $10 With Producers Unable To Hedge

Second part of Gartman interview focuses on the energy markets.

Read Part I of the interview, “Dennis Gartman Says He’s Bullish On Gold As Miners Curtail Production.”

HardAssetsInvestor: What's your view on the recent surge in natural gas above $5/mmbtu?

Dennis Gartman: There's two things problematic with the natural gas market. But first, let's applaud the advent and the burgeoning of fracking here in North America. It is making the United States energy-independent faster than anybody might have ever dreamt. It is one of the great benefits to our country, and it will be benefiting us for decades into the future.  (more)

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Rick Rule & Doug Casey Say Miners Extremely Cheap Right Now

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Going Nowhere

Click to view The holiday shortened week was a zigzagging path to nowhere. The intra-week range for the S&P 500 was a relatively small 1.26%, with most of the volatility surrounding the FOMC and especially the release on Wednesday of the FOMC minutes. Today’s close was 0.19% below last Friday’s close.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.73%, down 2 bps from last Friday’s close. The interim high was 3.04% at the end of 2013.
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Man Who Executed QE1 For Fed Says Stocks May Collapse 30% / February 21, 2014
In the aftermath of the recent chaos and market turmoil in emerging markets, today King World News spoke with the man the Fed called on to execute QE1 and who also set up the Fed’s massive trading room, former Fed member and former Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, Andrew Huszar.  What he had to say will stun KWN readers around the world.  He warned stocks may collapse 30% or more in a matter of months if the Fed continues on the current course, and he also said that the Fed is now running the largest hedge fund in the world and it may end in disaster.  Below is what Huszard had to say in Part I of this remarkable interview.
Eric King:  “Andrew, what made you come out publicly and say that QE was a failure and apologize to everybody?  What made you come out and do that?”
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Friday, February 21, 2014

Ciena Corporation (NYSE: CIEN)

Ciena Corporation provides communications networking equipment, software, and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation, and management of voice, video, and data traffic worldwide. The company operates through Converged Packet Optical, Packet Networking, Optical Transport, and Software and Services segments. The Converged Packet Optical segment offers networking solutions optimized for the convergence of coherent optical transport, OTN switching, and packet switching. The Packet Networking segment principally provides the company’s 3000 family of service delivery switches and service aggregation switches, the 5000 series of service aggregation switches, and its Ethernet packet configuration for the 5410 Service Aggregation Switch. The Optical Transport segment transports voice, video, and data traffic at high transmission speeds. The Software and Services segment offers network software suite, including the OneControl Unified Management System, an integrated network and service management software designed to automate and simplify network management, operation, and service delivery.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of CIEN (Ciena Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of CIEN (Ciena Corporation)
CIEN peaked last October at $28 and lost a quarter of its value from there. The stock seems to be forming a base over the last (3) months all the while hitting a very important level of resistance at $24 (blue). No matter what the market has or has not done since November, CIEN has not been able to break through that area of resistance. If the stock can break above $24 higher prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: CIEN has a key level of resistance at $24. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $24.
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Two Charts Say the Market Rally Is Coming to an End

The stock market has had a great run this month. But it looks like the rally has just about run its course.
Many technical indicators are showing negative divergence right now. In other words, as the S&P 500 has been making higher highs on the chart, the momentum indicators have been making lower highs. That's "negative divergence," and it's a strong warning sign that the rally is nearing an end.
So now is not the time to bet aggressively that stocks are going to keep pushing higher. But it's probably a good time to make a bet on the short side of the market.
Here's a 60-minute chart of the S&P 500 as of Tuesday's close, plotted along with three momentum indicators...
s&p500 2/18/2014 closing chart
For the past week, the S&P 500 has been rallying and making higher highs on the chart. But the MACD momentum indicator and the five- and 14-day relative strength indexes (RSIs) have all been making lower highs.  (more)
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BlackBerry Shares Can Double Again: BBRY

Coming into the new year, BlackBerry was one of the names on my radar that I thought could double in 2014. After a monster January, shares of the Canadian mobile services company have been consolidating nicely below a declining 200-day moving average. I think there’s more upside here.
First let’s take a step back and look at this from a longer-term perspective. This is the chart that got me interested in $BBRY in the first place. Here is what I saw in December:
2-20-14 bbry st
You can see why this is my favorite setup: the false breakdown and simultaneous bullish momentum divergence. Here is what this one looks like today:  (more)
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Global Debt Bomb: From TNT Now to Nuclear

About this week’s show:
-Gold up 9%, silver up 12%, gold stock up 23% YTD
-U.S. destabilizing along with the rest of the world
-Trophy headquarters portend a top in tech
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Walter Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WLT)

Walter Energy, Inc. produces and exports metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It also produces thermal and industrial coal, anthracite, metallurgical coke, coal bed methane gas, and other related products. The company offers its thermal coal for electric utilities and industrial customers. Walter Energy, Inc. exports its metallurgical coal to Europe, Asia, and South America; and markets its thermal coal primarily in the United States. The company was formerly known as Walter Industries, Inc. and changed its name to Walter Energy, Inc. in April 2009. Walter Energy, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Please take a look at the 9-month chart of WLT (Walter Energy, Inc.) below with my added notations:
9-month chart of WLT (Walter Energy, Inc.)
WLT found support at $10 (blue) twice back in June and August. The stock then managed to rally up to a high of almost $20. Now the stock has approached $10 again and that might provide another bounce higher. However, the stock’s recent lagging of the overall market could be setting the stock up for a breakdown.

The Tale of the Tape: WLT has a key level of support at $10. A trader could enter a long position at $10 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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Chart of the Day - Novo Nordisk (NVO)

The Chart of the Day is Novo Nordisk (NVO). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for frequency in the last month, skipped the stocks that did not have positive gains for the last week and month, then used the Flipchart feature to review the stocks. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 11/29 the stock gained 23.69%.
NVO is a leader in insulin and diabetes care and also manufactures and markets a variety of other pharmaceutical products. The company is the world's largest producer of industrial enzyme products.

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Thursday, February 20, 2014

Gafisa (NYSE: GFA) Under $3 Brazilian Turnaround Play Could Deliver 100% Upside

More than a half decade removed from a deep crisis, the U.S. housing market is on the mend. Home prices in many cities have been rising again, and the PHLX Housing Sector Index has risen more than 250% from its March 2009 lows.
The other major economy of the Western Hemisphere is still in the midst of a housing hangover. After decades of robust growth that catapulted its economy into the seventh slot in terms of GDP, Brazil's economy in general, and the housing market in particular, is in a pretty deep funk.
As a result, most investors are overlooking a classic turnaround play. Gafisa (NYSE: GFA), a Brazilian homebuilder, has seen its shares plunge by nearly 90% since the global economic meltdown took root in 2008. And though shares are unlikely to re-visit those heights, this fallen stock now has at least 100% upside.  (more)

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The Crash Continues: Oil/Natural Gas Ratio

This is one that we haven’t discussed here in a while but I think it’s worth mentioning. Long time readers remember how annoying I was about the Crude Oil to Natural Gas bubble back in early 2012. A spread that has averaged 10:1 over the past 20 years went parabolic above 54:1 in the second quarter 2012.
I wrote countless blog posts about this, mentioned it on TV several times, and followed up afterwards. But the crash continues into 2014. What was once as high as 54:1 is now down to 18:1 and still falling hard putting in fresh multi-year lows this month. Here’s the beauty of the whole thing: prices are still 45% away from the historic mean. And more importantly remember that, “we are not just in a reversion to the mean business, but in a reversion beyond the mean business” (to quote Soros’ technician John Roque).
Here is the chart of the bubble popping and subsequent crash:
2-16-14 cl vs ng ratio
This is a monthly line chart, so it does not show the absolute highs above 54:1, just the monthly closing prices. But you get the idea. I would not be surprised to see this thing down under 8:1 – 10:1.
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Is Corn Ripe for a Bounce?

The corn market is balancing several factors as we move towards the US planting season. On one hand, we have the bearish factors of a record global corn crop and the largest year ending stocks since 2001. On the other hand, we are witnessing a rapid and sustained growth in exports along with weather complications taking their toll on South American supplies. Given the technical and seasonal factors at play in this market, I think we have finally put in the post-2013 harvest lows and could continue higher into the planting season.
The corn market, particularly here in the US, has been beaten down in the fields and in the papers since the 2012 highs above $7. The corn market has declined by more than 45% since those highs and is now trading around $4.40 per bushel. This past summer's growing conditions turned out wonderful after a late start, and combined with the largest acreage planted since 1936, the resulting record harvest was no surprise. I'm willing to bet that we'll see fewer acres allotted to corn this year after five straight years of acreage growth and increasing South American competition on the world market. (more)

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Tom Dyson: The Big Dividend Cover-Up

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The Best Biotech Takeover Targets for 2014

Insmed Inc. (Nasdaq: INSM) primarily develops inhalation therapies for the treatment of lung diseases. Insmed's most notable project is ARIKACE, an inhaled antibiotic for patients suffering from cystic fibrosis and non-tuberculous mycobacteria. Currently, ARIKACE is in phase II trials in the United States and phase III trials in Canada and Europe.
INSM stock has gained an impressive 241% in the last year and currently trades at $19.73. Insmed has a market cap of just $772 million, which also makes it an attractive takeover option for large-cap pharmaceutical companies.

Acorda Therapeutics (Nasdaq: ACOR) provides treatments for people suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS), spinal cord injuries, and other nervous system disorders. The biggest product for Acorda is Ampyra, which helps MS patients who have difficulty walking. The company reported that through the first nine months of 2013, Ampyra sales had risen by 13%. Ampyra is already approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Acorda currently has three FDA-approved drugs in its portfolio.  (more)

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Chart of the Day - MDU Resources Group (MDU)

The Chart of the Day is MDU Resources Group (MDU). I found the stock by sorting today's New High List for frequency in the last month, skipped the stocks that did not have positive gains for the last week and month, then used the FlipChart feature to review the charts. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 12/24 the stock gained 12.97%.

MDU provides value-added natural resource products and related services that are essential to energy and transportation infrastructure, including regulated businesses, an exploration and production company and construction companies. MDU includes regulated electric and natural gas utilities and regulated natural gas pipelines and energy services, natural gas and oil production, construction materials and contracting, and construction services.

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Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Matador Resources Co (NYSE: MTDR)

Matador Resources Company engages in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Eagle Ford shale play in South Texas; the Haynesville shale play, including the Middle Bossier shale play, as well as the Cotton Valley and Hosston formations in Northwest Louisiana and East Texas; the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring plays in Southeast New Mexico and West Texas; and the Meade Peak shale play in Southwest Wyoming and the adjacent areas of Utah and Idaho. As of December 31, 2012, its estimated total proved reserves were 23.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, including 10.5 million Bbl of oil and 80.0 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of MTDR (Matador Resources Company) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of MTDR (Matador Resources Company)
MTDR had an amazing run from its low of $8 to its November peak at $24. Over the last 6 months the stock has created a key level of $18 (blue) that has been both support and prior resistance. In addition, the stock has been stalling at roughly the $21 area. At some point soon the stock will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: MTDR has a key level of support at $18 and a $21 resistance. A long trade could be made at $18, or on a break through $21, with a stop placed below the level of entry. However, if the stock were to break below $18 traders might want to look to get short on the stock.
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Solar Stocks Break Out To New Highs

There is an interesting pattern taking shape in the Solar Stocks. More specifically, the Guggenheim Solar ETF $TAN is breaking out of what could be an inverse head & shoulders continuation pattern. I first brought up the possibility of this breakout on Saturday in a post showing some of the highlights from a long charting session.
This one is pretty standard: In October, the Solar exchange traded fund ran into resistance in the low 40s. After a brief correction, prices rallied right back up there in November and rolled over once again. This time TAN made lower lows into December. After one more rally and retest of this resistance, prices once again rolled over. As always, the more times that a level is tested, the higher the likelihood that it breaks. Sure enough, Tuesday morning Solar stocks broke out to new highs, finally clearing all of that supply (resistance):
2-16-14 TAN
As long as prices hold this breakout, prices should be heading a lot higher. The measured move based on the size of this pattern takes us above $50. This target is based on the 9 points between the bottom of the head and neckline.  (more)
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Zinc Is Ready for a Breakout

Since the 2008 financial crisis, zinc prices had remained relatively quiet. Meanwhile, copper and gold have since managed to set new highs.

metal Then last fall things started to change, with zinc prices seeing some impressive action. Zinc shot up from $0.84/lb. to $0.96/lb. from mid-November to early December.

That was a 14.3% gain in just three short weeks. That move led the metal out of a tight trading range between $0.81 and $0.89 that lasted for most of 2013.

We've seen a small pullback and bounce since then, but there are increasing signs that this trend is just getting started.  (more)

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Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) Uptrend is Almost Scary, but It's Not Over Yet

Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) is a closely followed stock in the biotechnology industry. It is currently the top holding in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ: IBB), comprising 7.83% of the ETF's assets.
On Thursday, IBB closed at a fresh all-time high, making three new closing highs three days in a row. With such great momentum behind the sector ETF, GILD looks poised to break past its near-term layer of resistance and participate in this rally in a more meaningful way.
On Feb. 4, Gilead Sciences reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat handsomely on both the top and bottom line. The company saw earnings of $0.55 per share versus an estimated $0.50, a 10% increase from the year-ago quarter. Q4 revenue was 20% higher on a year-over-year basis at $3.12 billion versus an estimated $2.85 billion.  (more)

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So What About Silver? / By Bill Holter / February 18th, 2014
I wrote a piece yesterday showing you how the moving averages for both the HUI and gold look to be bottoming and crossing over from very oversold levels.  I got to thinking, what about silver?  I figured in the back of my mind that because silver has underperformed gold and has generally seemed to only “bottom bounce” more that its progress was behind that of gold.
I again tapped my buddy Dan Norcini and asked him what silver looked like?  This is what he sent me!
Silver is exactly where it should be given that historically the shares lead, followed by silver and then gold.  Silver’s MACD’s are not “touching” yet but they are VERY close, much closer than gold’s to crossing over.  I do want to point out that we have “round tripped” back to the $18-$20 levels that was seen in previous years as resistance.  We basically hit this resistance level 3 times prior to the 2011 run up.  Once broken out however, silver ran to $30 in 6 or 7 months.
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Walter Energy, Inc. (NYSE: WLT)

Walter Energy, Inc. produces and exports metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It also produces thermal and industrial coal, anthracite, metallurgical coke, coal bed methane gas, and other related products. The company offers its thermal coal for electric utilities and industrial customers. Walter Energy, Inc. exports its metallurgical coal to Europe, Asia, and South America; and markets its thermal coal primarily in the United States. The company was formerly known as Walter Industries, Inc. and changed its name to Walter Energy, Inc. in April 2009. Walter Energy, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.
Please take a look at the 9-month chart of WLT (Walter Energy, Inc.) below with my added notations:
9-month chart of WLT (Walter Energy, Inc.)
WLT found support at $10 (blue) twice back in June and August. The stock then managed to rally up to a high of almost $20. Now the stock has approached $10 again and that might provide another bounce higher. However, the stock’s recent lagging of the overall market could be setting the stock up for a breakdown.

The Tale of the Tape: WLT has a key level of support at $10. A trader could enter a long position at $10 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Is A COMEX Default & Gold Surge Coming? / February 17, 2014
Today a 42-year market veteran who predicted the spike in gold ahead of time spoke with King World Newsabout the explosive action in gold.  Now that the rally he predicted is unfolding, John Hathaway, who is one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold, and whose fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating, also said investors need to strap themselves in for a COMEX default and a surge in the gold price.
Hathaway:  “Right now the price action in gold and silver is telling the story.  One thing that has surprised me is that the equity markets have seemed to hold together with all of the bad economic news….
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Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion: Headed For a Fall

Soros Fund Management has doubled up a bet that the S&P 500 SPX is headed for a fall.
Within Friday’s 13F filings news was the revelation that the firm, founded by legendary investor George Soros, increased a put position on the S&P 500 ETF   SPY by a whopping 154% in the fourth quarter, compared with the third. (A put or short position basically gives the owner the right to sell a security at a set price for a limited time, and in making such a bet, an investor generally believes the security is going to decline.)
The value of that holding, the biggest position in the fund, has risen to $1.3 billion from around $470 million. It now makes up a 11.13% chunk of all reported holdings. It had been cut to 5.14% in the third quarter, from 13.54% in the second quarter, which itself marked another dramatic lift on the bearish call.  The numbers can be found at, which makes them slightly easier to digest than the actual SEC filing.
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