Crude Oil, Bonds and Homebuilders, $TLT $TNX $CL_F $USO $XHB $ITB $IYR

This week I was over at the Nasdaq chatting with Frances Horodelski about where Crude Oil could be heading next and what we’re looking for in order to put on a long position. For US Stocks I think we start to see breakouts in the Homebuilding stocks very soon. We keep bumping up against this overhead supply and as we always say, the more times that a level is tested the higher the likelihood that we break out. REITs continue to do well relative to the S&P500 as the stock market keeps suggesting to us that interest rates will stay down for a while.
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Chinese Developer Kaisa On Verge Of $5Bn Default; Who's Next?

“You never know where the skeletons in the closet are or what company will be next," warns one Chinese credit analyst and as the CNY30 billion indebted Chinese developer Kaisa Group (that we initially discussed here) admits it can’t say if it plans to meet a bond deadline today as a local news website said lenders took steps to preserve assets. The builder of residential communities and shopping centers must pay about $26 million in interest on its 10.25 percent 2020 debentures today (which appears unlikely) and its bonds have crashed to below 30c. The big question, as Bloomberg notes, is who's next?
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James Grant The Forgotten Depression: McAlvany Commentary 2015

James Grant joints the MWC today to discuss how Govt Inaction shortened the Depression of 1920, Govt Action extended the Depression of 1930’s, When left alone the business cycle self corrects
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Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE: NEM)

Newmont Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, acquires, explores for, and produces gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company’s assets or operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, New Zealand, Mexico, and Suriname. As of December 31, 2013, it had proven and probable gold reserves of approximately 88.4 million ounces and an aggregate land position of approximately 24,000 square miles. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Newmont (NYSE: NEM) below with added notations:

After a steep decline in September and October, NEM has been trading sideways since its November low. All the while, the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
NEM’s rectangle pattern had formed a $20 resistance (green) and an $18 support (blue). At some point the stock had to break one of the two levels, and earlier this week NEM broke the $20 resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: NEM broke out of its rectangle pattern. The possible long position on the stock would be on a pullback to $20. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $20 with an expectation of a fall down to the $18 level.
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