Saturday, September 27, 2014

Shale Boom Will Not Last

Natural gas and oil prices have been falling off a cliff.
This was expected, and it's the reason I've been shy on oil and gas in my stock advisory services for a few months now.
Natural gas has fallen from above $6.00/mmBtu in February to below $4.00 this month. Gas prices were around this price last September... and quickly added 80% over the next few months.
One Year Natural Gas Price Chart NYMEX
Oil prices haven't been this low, currently trading around $90/barrel, since January. (more)
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Andrew Maguire: Stunning 650 Tons Of Gold Bought In Takedown / September 26, 2014
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that a stunning 650 tons of physical gold has been purchased by sovereigns and central banks during the recent takedown in the gold market.  Below is what London metals trader Maguire had to say in Part I of a series of interviews that will be released today on KWN.
Eric King:  “Since gold exited the $1,300s in the third week of August (just over one month ago), how much physical gold has been purchased by sovereigns and central banks?”
Maguire:  “A good example was yesterday, and that (21 tons of physical gold buying) was slightly more visible because the name was known….
Continue reading the Andrew Maguire interview below…
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Anything and Everything About the Mining Sector: Jason Stevens

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Is Japan on the Road to Default?

from The Daily Bell

Japan’s Debt Trap … Japan’s government has a lot of debt. Not as much as people think — since much of that debt is owed by one branch of the government to another, net debt held by the public is only 134 percent of gross domestic product, not the widely quoted figure of 240 percent. But 134 percent is still a lot. About 15.6 percent of Japanese tax revenue goes to pay interest on this debt every year — about the same as for the U.S … In the end, a sovereign default is just an accounting exercise — marking down the assets of some Japanese people and marking up the assets of others. It would redistribute wealth from the old to the young. – Bloomberg
Dominant Social Theme: Japan is getting older but its economy is healthy. Never mind the naysayers.
Free-Market Analysis: This is an interesting article by a Bloomberg editorialist – Noah Smith – whose editorials sometimes border on the ridiculous. He’s a firm Keynesian – a believer that money-from-nothing can cure most economic ills – and we’ve written about some of his editorials in the past.
Continue Reading at…
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This Technical Indicator May be the Simplest Way to Pick Winning Stocks

What's the first rule of successful real estate investing? Of course, you just said to yourself, "location, location, location." Well, when it comes successful equity trading, the first rule that should come to your mind is "price, price, price."
More specifically, it is the share price performance of a stock or ETF relative to other stocks and ETFs traded in the market that is the most important metric to put in your favor.
If a security you are looking to buy has a proven track record of outperforming others in the broad market, or within its specific industry group, then that tells you others on Wall Street think there is something special about it that makes it worth buying. (more)

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“The Murder of The Middle Class: How To Save Yourself And Your Family!”

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“Major Risk Should The Market Drop”: BofA On Fresh Record Low In NYSE Investor “Net Worth” / by Tyler Durden / 09/26/2014 07:59 -0400
While we have argued previously that looking at NYSE margin debt in isolation is quite meaningless for two simple reasons: i) in the New Normal hedge funds and algos, not retail and certainly not traders on “lit” venues like the NYSE but instead in dark pools, are the marginal traders, and ii) the relevant trading leverage is obtained from the “shadow banking” and repo markets, not plain vanilla margin debt from exchange clerks, monthly NYSE trading stats do provide some sense of just how levered the individual investor is, and what it may portend for the market should there be a selloff. Which is why we were not surprised to see that based on August data, the trend has continued: while NYSE margin debt rose once again, from $460 billion to $463 billion, just shy of the record set in February when it hit $466 billion and well above the previous bubble peak, it is the investor “Net Worth”, or Net Free Credit as some call it: the difference of total free credit + cash balances and margin debt, that for the second consecutive month sank to a fresh record low of ($183) billion.

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