Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Chen Lin’s Secret to Finding the Next GoldCorp

by JT Long
The Gold Report

Chen Lin, author of the popular stock newsletter What Is Chen Buying? What Is Chen Selling?, knows the smart time to look for the next big gold company is when everyone else has left the sector. With China making moves to invest trillions in commodity-hungry infrastructure, Lin is traveling the world looking for the companies with the right projects in the right places making all the right moves. In this interview with The Gold Report, he shares some of the insights from his recent travels and discusses three companies with potential to be the next Goldcorp.
The Gold Report: You’ve written that the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) could lead to a boom in commodities. We recently saw that South Korea is joining a number of European countries and signing on, despite U.S. reservations. Do you see this as a threat to U.S. fiscal dominance?
Chen Lin: I think this is a first step for China. The country has a huge reserve, $4 trillion, much more than it needs on the balance sheet to stabilize its currency. The rest is wasted, collecting no interest. China made some huge mistakes in the past through poor acquisition decisions because of faulty lending standards.
Continue Reading at TheAuReport.com…
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3 Triple-Digit Stocks With Upside Potential of At Least 40%: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD), NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI)

It's a common misconception among new investors, and one that even veterans occasionally make: assuming that a stock's price is the ultimate determinant of value.
Of the more than 7,000 stocks currently listed on U.S. stock exchanges, just 428 have a share price of $100 or higher. By comparison, there are more than 900 companies to choose from with a share price of $5 or less. The perception of being able to buy more shares of a lower priced stock, as well as the idea that it'd be easier for a $5 stock to double in value than a $100 per share stock, tends to lead novice investors and short-term traders away from some very trustworthy and high growth potential triple-digit price tag stocks. (more)
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ECB To Steal Greek Bank Deposits As Greece To Default Within Two Weeks Sending Shockwaves Around The World!

kingworldnews.com /
Today one of the greats in the business warned King World News that Greece will default within two weeks, sending shockwaves around the world!  He also stunned KWN when he said what the ECB is about to do to Greece.
James Turk:  “The situation is Greece is deteriorating rapidly, Eric, and the implications extend far beyond the euro.  KWN readers need to be ready just in case there are some nasty surprises over the next couple of weeks that roil markets around the globe….
Continue reading the James Turk interview below…
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Iconix Brand Group Inc (NASDAQ: ICON)

Iconix Brand Group, Inc., a brand management company, owns, licenses, and markets a portfolio of consumer brands across women’s, men’s, entertainment, and home primarily in the United States and internationally. The company brand portfolio includes Candie’s, Bongo, Badgley Mischka, Joe Boxer, Rampage, Mudd, London Fog, Mossimo, Ocean Pacific, Danskin, Rocawear, Cannon, Royal Velvet, Fieldcrest, Charisma, Starter, Waverly, Ecko Unltd, Marc Ecko Cut & Sew, Zoo York, Sharper Image, Umbro, and Lee Cooper brand names. It also has interest in Artful Dodger, Material Girl, Peanuts, Ed Hardy, Truth or Dare, Billionaire Boys Club, Ice Cream, Modern Amusement, Buffalo, Nick Graham, Hydraulic, and Strawberry Shortcake brands. Iconix Brand Group, Inc. licenses its brands directly to retailers and wholesalers for use across a range of product categories.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Iconix (Nasdaq: ICON) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Iconix (Nasdaq: ICON)
ICON has been trading sideways over the last 3 months. During the sideways move the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
ICON’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $36 (red), which was also support back in October, and a $33 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: ICON is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $33 or on a breakout above $36. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $33.
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Ross Clark on Equity Markets, and Josef Schachter on Oil and Gas. Ted Dixon Discusses Insiders.

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Monday, March 30, 2015

The Top 10 Dow Dividend Stocks for April

It’s hard out there for income investors.

10-year Treasuries are yielding just 1.9%, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 is also stuck right around 2%, and investors are mired in a constant will-they-or-won’t-they with the Federal Reserve.
Interest rates look like they’ll finally edge higher this year, but the Fed’s general dovishness means any rate hikes will probably be fairly insubstantial.

Luckily, there are still plenty of solid blue-chip dividend stocks out there. They’re a little riskier than pure fixed-income investments, sure, but they’re also a lot likelier to appreciate over the next five years or so, which won’t be true for bonds if rates finally advance.
With that said, today we’ll look at the top 10 dividend stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average — a set of blue chips that each yields more than 3% currently: (more)

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Kyle Bass Warns “The Fed Is Backed Into A Corner… Equities Are My Biggest Liquidity Worry”

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/28/2015 – 19:15
While Kyle Bass is usually the smartest man in the room, among this crowd he is Einstein as he carefuly explains – while sitting politely during status quo interruptions – the real state of the world “the unintended consequence of QE has been to widen the income gap,” what is behind the Potemkin Village of the stock markets, how The Fed is “backed into a corner” of raising rates against their will, and why bond yields (at the long-end) will drop further. Currency wars are net positive, as Greg Ip suggests, and will not end well, as he concludes in one section, “why haven’t all the Yen left Japan already?”
How many rich people do you know today that are poorer than they were at the peak in 06/07 (apart from Dick Fuld), I don’t think I know any.. QE has been distributive to the rich… but now that the world has started this policy it is unable to end it…

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Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA)

Tesla Motors, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, electric vehicle powertrain components, and stationary energy storage systems in the United States, China, Norway, and internationally. It also provides development services to develop electric vehicle powertrain components and systems for other automotive manufacturers. The company sells its products through a network of Tesla stores and galleries, as well as through Internet. Tesla Motors, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)
TSLA has formed a relatively clear down-channel chart pattern over the last 7 months. A channel is simply formed through the combination of a trend line support that runs parallel to a trend line resistance. When it comes to channels, remember that any (3) points can start the channel, but a 4th point or more confirms it. You can see that TSLA has several points of channel resistance (red) and support (green).

The Tale of the Tape: TSLA has formed a common pattern known as a channel, in this case a down channel. A long trade could be entered on a pullback down to the channel support, or on a break through the channel resistance, which is currently sitting near $205. Short opportunities would be on rallies up to channel resistance or on a break of channel support.
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ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology Fund (BIB): Your Chance to Get in Early on Massive Opportunities in Biotech

As True Wealth Systems editor Steve Sjuggerud has said many times over the years, "If you catch just one biotech bull market in your lifetime, you may never have to work again..."
And the returns in the ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology Fund (BIB) – a double-long exchange-traded fund – supports Steve's statement. (Remember, the returns for BIB will be higher than a simple biotech index due to leverage. But the returns for the normal index are still incredible.)
BIB hit a low of $8.48 per share on August 8, 2011. It has soared to more than $160 today – a return of nearly 20 times in less than four years. (more)
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
8:30 am Personal income Feb. 0.3% 0.3%
8:30 am Consumer spending Feb. 0.3% -0.2%
8:30 am Core inflation Feb. 0.1% 0.1%
10 am Pending home sales Feb. -0.2% 1.7%
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Feb. -- 4.6% yoy
10 am Consumer confidence March 96.9 96.4
8:15 am ADP employment March -- 212,000
9:45 am Markit PMI March -- 55.3
10 am ISM March
52.7% 52.9%
10 am Construction spending Feb. 0.2% -1.1%
TBA Motor vehicle sales March 17.0 mln 16.2 mln
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims March 29
283,000 282,000
8:30 am Trade deficit Feb.
-$42.0 bln -$41.8 bln
10 am Factory orders Feb. 0.0% -0.2%
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls March 255,000 295,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate March 5.5% 5.5%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings March 0.2% 0.1%
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Saturday, March 28, 2015

David Gurwitz - Charles Nenner Research: Gold, Stocks, and All Markets

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Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN)

Superior Energy Services, Inc. provides specialized oilfield services and equipment to oil and gas companies in the United States, the Gulf of Mexico, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Drilling Products and Services; Onshore Completion and Workover Services; Production Services; and Technical Solutions. The Drilling Products and Services segment rents tubulars, and manufactures and rents bottom hole tools, including stabilizers, non-magnetic drill collars, and hole openers, as well as rents temporary onshore and offshore accommodation modules and accessories. The Onshore Completion and Workover Services segment offers pressure pumping services consisting of hydraulic fracturing and high pressure pumping services used to complete and stimulate production in new oil and gas wells. . The Production Services segment provides intervention services. The Technical Solutions segment offers pressure control services, completion tools and services, end-of-life services, and marine technical services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Superios (NYSE: SPN) below with the added notations:
1-year chart of Superios (NYSE: SPN)
SPN declined rapidly last fall, paused for a month or so, and then dropped again to its December low. Over that time the $23 price level (blue) has become very important to the stock. Not only was $23 a key support in October and November, but it has also been a tough resistance for the stock here as of late.

The Tale of the Tape: SPN has a key level at $23. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $23 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on SPN, a short trade could be made instead if the stock rallies up to $23.
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Gold & Silver Stocks Will Rise Again

by Gary Christenson
Deviant Investor

The XAU is an index of gold and silver stocks. It has been hammered hard since the gold and silver peaks in 2011.
The XAU bottomed in November 2014 below 62 at a 14 year low, down approximately 73% from its 2011 high at approximately 230. As of Friday March 20 it closed at 69.27.
I suspect that most investors gave up – long ago – on gold, silver and their stocks. Good! The upcoming multi-year rally will be a surprise and should move the XAU index beyond the 2011 highs.
Examine the 25 year graph of the XAU. The chart has been rising slowly but is currently deeply over-sold.
Continue Reading at DeviantInvestor.com…
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Bullish Reversal Could Score Traders Quick Profits in Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)

The stock market is having a rough week, but I think this could be a short-term opportunity to buy when there's blood in the streets. As 18th century British nobleman Baron Rothschild knew, one of the best times to buy is when everyone else is selling. That's when the astute trader can pick up some good bargains.

I am looking at the market's leading sectors right now for stocks that got hit hard but maintained positive technicals. (more)

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Will You Survive The Next Bear Market ?

Since the beginning of January 2014 stocks have shown signs of institutional selling. This can be seen in the small capitalization stocks index the Russell 2000. This group of stocks generally leads the S&P 500.
Most bull market tops in the S&P 500 shown below take 8-12 months to form before it starts to fall in value. So far the market has been under distribution selling meaning the large traders (institutions, hedge funds) is selling their positions to the average investor to be left holding the bag when things go south.
The chart posted below shows some of my analysis of the SP500 index. This chart shows the 200 day moving average which is a great indicator of the major trend of the market. Green means bull market, red indicates bear market.
Also you will see the red ATR (Average True Range) indicator at the bottom. This tells us if the average daily movement for the index is high or low. When this red area rises we know there is a large amount of money flowing in and out of the equities market. It takes large amounts of capital to do this and is why the sellers are most likely hedge funds and institutions rebalancing their portfolios for an upcoming trend change.

If we step back and take a look at the bigger picture using the monthly chart of the S&P 500 we can foresee what is likely to happen in the next 12-36 months. The US stock market is losing momentum which can be seen by the relative strength indicator at the top of the chart.
Also the support trend line give us a feel on how soon a breakdown in price may happen. It appears to be just months away…

Taking things one large step further back, roughly 70 years you can see some patterns of that in the past. The question is not will there be a bear market, but how far will it correct?
The cart below shows a very bullish outlook of a minor correction of 30% in the next 36 months. Also I do have analysis that shows that if we break below the 30% level we could have a 50-60% correction which could trigger a chain reaction of issues including the US bond bubble to burst.

US Stock Market Conclusion:

In short, the US stock market continues to grind higher but with several warning signs to investors who know how to spot them.
There are three ways to play a bear market. The first is to do nothing, which is what most people do as they watch their life savings slowly evaporate right in front of them month after month.
Second, is to liquidate a large portion of equities and sit safely in cash while others lose money.
The third and last is to position yourself to profit from a falling market. It’s known that stocks fall 4-7 times faster than they rise, which means you can potentially make 7 years’ worth of profits in just 1-2 years if done correctly.
These are ways to play a bear market, and I say play because you do need to be a little more active to enter and lock in profits in this market condition.
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The Dollar Rally Is Over... For Now

The dollar rally is over... at least for the short term.
For the past eight months, the U.S. Dollar Index has been on fire – rallying from a low of 80 last July to a high of more than 100 early last week. That's a remarkable 25% gain for a currency.
And up until last week, most folks thought the gains would continue. You couldn't watch the financial networks for more than a few minutes without some talking head commenting on the strength of the dollar. (more)

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Friday, March 27, 2015

American Tower Corp. (NYSE: AMT), The J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM): 1 Blue-Chip Stock To Sell, 1 To Buy

Even blue-chip stocks can be bad investments.

Take American Tower Corp. (NYSE: AMT) as an example. It is the world's largest independent operator of wireless and broadcast communication sites, and is looking at an onerous, possibly unmanageable debt load.

The company may seem bulletproof, operating roughly 70,000 wireless cell tower sites across the globe.

Financial results have been superb, with revenues more than doubling since 2009 to $4.1 billion. The firm's stock delivered a market-trouncing 17% rate of return during the past five years. (more)
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CarMax, Inc (NYSE: KMX)

CarMax, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles in the United States. It operates in two segments, CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. It sells vehicles that do not meet its retail standards to licensed dealers through on-site wholesale auctions, as well as sells new vehicles under franchise agreements. The company also provides customers financing alternatives through its finance operation, CarMax Auto Finance, as well as through its third-party financing providers. In addition, it offers a range of other related products and services, including the appraisal and purchase of vehicles directly from consumers; sale of extended service plans and guaranteed asset protection services; and vehicle repair services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of CarMax (NYSE: KMX) below with added notations:
1-year chart of CarMax (NYSE: KMX)
After bolting higher from mid-October until the end of December, KMX has been trading sideways over the last 3 months. During the sideways move the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
KMX’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $68 (red) and a $62 support (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: KMX is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $62 or on a breakout above $68. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $62.
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Oil up after Saudi air strikes in Yemen; dollar limits gains

Oil prices rallied for a second straight day on Thursday after Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies began air strikes in Yemen, sparking fears of a bigger Middle East battle that could disrupt world crude supplies.
The military operation against Houthi rebels, who have driven the president from Yemen's capital Sanaa, has not affected oil facilities of major Gulf producers.
But fears the conflict could spread has stoked concerns about Middle East oil shipments.Saudi rival Iran, which backs the Houthi rebels, denounced the air strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a phone conversation with his Iranian counterpart, called for an "immediate ceasefire." Pakistan, a Riyadh ally far away from the conflict, promised a "strong response" to any threat to Saudi integrity. (more)

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David Gurwitz Best Bets: Food, Wheat and Water March 24, 2015

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Thursday, March 26, 2015

Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX)

Diana Shipping Inc. provides shipping transportation services. The company transports dry bulk cargoes, including commodities, such as iron ore, coal, grain, and other materials worldwide. As of December 9, 2014, it operated a fleet of 39 dry bulk vessels, including 2 Newcastlemax, 11 Capesize, 3 Post-Panamax, 3 Kamsarmax, and 20 Panamax vessels. The company was formerly known as Diana Shipping Investments Corp. and changed its name to Diana Shipping Inc. in February 2005. Diana Shipping Inc. was founded in 1999 and is based in Athens, Greece.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Diana (NYSE: DSX) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Diana (NYSE: DSX)
After a steady decline through-out most of 2014, DSX has been trading sideways over the last 3 months. During the sideways move the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
DSX’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $7.25 (blue) and a $6.25 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: DSX is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $6.25 or on a breakout above $7.25. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $6.25.
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Worldwide Markets To See Total Panic As Massive Derivatives Bubble Implodes

from King World News
Today the man who remarkably predicted the collapse of the euro against the Swiss franc warned King World News that worldwide markets are going to see total panic as the massive derivatives bubble implodes!
Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, there are four people whose words and actions are considered to be critical for the world economy. I call them the three not-so-wise men and a lost woman….
Continue reading the Egon von Greyerz interview below…
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…
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John Rubino, Stocks and Commodities – A Reversal of Fortunes?

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XME: Resource Sector Update

by Nick Hodge
Outsider Club

It’s no secret there’s some big contrarian profits to be made in the resource sector.
The metals and mining sector, as represented by the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE: XME), has lost ~63% of its value since this four-year bear market began:
[...] I know individual mining companies with world-class gold, silver, platinum and palladium assets that have lost upwards of 80% of their value.
The metals they own in the ground weigh the same they did five years ago.
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Contango Tumbles To 2-Month Lows As WTI Crude Melts Up Above $49

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 03/25/2015 13:57
Fifth ramp in 5 days takes WTI crude back above $49 for the first time in 2 weeks… on the heels of record production, record streak of inventory builds, and record inventory at Cushing. The 1Y spread has compressed to 2-month lows…
WTI melts up…

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TWTR Twitter – Social Media Stock Starting Bullish Upside Move

Twitter is gaining some serious traction as their business model is starting to make more sense with each passing day. The name of the game is to wait for the charts to confirm one’s bullish assumptions. The long white candle TWTR – Twitter printed today is the confirmation technical traders had been waiting for. There was no serious selling into the close which is a sign traders and institutions were building positions today in order to hold for the medium to long term.
As of yet FB – Facebook is the undisputed social media king but TWTR is starting to get its act together. To make a long story short, from a valuation perspective TWTR has probably more potential than FB and should start to outperform its peer stock. Time will tell.
Today’s break out to the upside with TWTR looks extremely constructive due to the significant volume increase and the break out of its recent sideways trading channel drawn in blue. If we see follow through within the next few days this will drastically increase the odds for TWTR to have started a run to the upside. I drew the potential start of an ABC chart pattern into the chart. According to technical analysis a conservative price target around 60$ seems more than reasonable.

What makes the current situation very interesting is that institutional money can easily pile into such a liquid big cap name like TWTR. Once they pile into a new name the run tends to last for quite some time as institutional money needs a lot of time to build their entire position. They also tend to support the stock all the the way up until their initial reason for entering is invalidated.
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Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Is It Time To Buy SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorers ETF (NYSE: XOP) ?

The Market Loves To Hate Oil
As you'd expect, energy-related ETFs are an especially popular target for short sellers these days. In fact, almost every share held in long accounts for the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorers ETF (NYSE: XOP) is also currently borrowed for short seller accounts.
The latest headache for oil prices and oil stocks: fears are growing that U.S. oil storage tanks could reach capacity in April. While Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD 1) storage is near capacity at around 85%, total storage is only at 60% capacity.
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$GM at a Fork in the Road

Let's lift the hood on $GM (General Motors Company: NYSE) and see what this stock has been up to over the past few months:

$GM : General Motors Company
As the daily chart shows us, the bulls have dominated the price action since early February; +DMI has remained above -DMI for nearly two months, but we're starting to see the spread between these two indicators diminish. What awaits remains to be seen.
Here we are at a fork in the road. The $39 level is resistance and the $38 level is near term support. Below $38, the $35.50 - $36 level would be another key support area to watch for.
Short-term and intermediate-term moving averages are beginning to converge, per the MACD signal. Coupled with a declining RSI signal, any pick up in bearish momentum could put pressure on $GM in the days ahead, assuming the bulls are unable to overcome the $39 level above.
On Monday, $GM closed at $38.59, just a penny above its 5 DMA currently at $38.58. The open price was $38.81 and high for the day was $39, so the bulls lost traction as the trading day neared its end. If the RSI signal falls below 60, this would generally be seen as bearish.
If the price action continues to exhibit overall weakness, and the short-term moving averages cross below the intermediate-term moving average, this would further support the bearish case. A spike in -DMI and subsequent cross and hold above +DMI would further validate the bearish stance; a rising ADX line in such a scenario would portend a trending move lower.
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Seaspan (SSW): High Income on High Seas

Seaspan (SSW) had a fair earnings report in its latest period. Normalized EPS per diluted share rose 3.7% in Q4, but fell 1.2% for the full-year. Normalized earnings have gotten a bit more problematic in the last few years.
The main driver of this measure used to be the fluctuation in currency and interest rate hedges, which I didn't mind at all.  But the company has gotten a bit more aggressive.
It no longer counts options compensation expense and a few others that are real expenses. It also excludes some one-time items that recur. I don't like these fictions, but everyone is doing it, so I guess the company feels it's entitled. My own figures show slightly lower results.
This is of small concern to us as preferred shareholders. More important is that net interest coverage from operating earnings was 4 times at yearend and EBITDA covered preferred dividends 4 times.
The company also raised the common stock dividend 9% and said in the conference call that the common dividend was sustainable. That's a good sign.
The call was upbeat about prospects and the company continues to expand its fleet. My only concerns are that management may be too upbeat for my taste and may be expanding too fast.
This won't affect ships already under contract, but if Seaspan's outlook is too optimistic, it may have trouble getting profitable rates on ships coming off charter in a weaker-than-expected economy.
The average length of the company charters is down to five years and change. When we first bought the common stock years ago, it was closer to eight years. Nonetheless, this is a problem for common stock holders, not us.
It is also encouraging that company insiders converted a lot of high-yielding preferred shares in 2014 (as scheduled), increasing the company's already very high percentage of insider ownership. These guys are definitely watching the ship.
We recommend Seaspan Corporation 7.95% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Shares (SSW-PD) and Seaspan 6.375% Notes due April 2019 (SSWN). Both securities are buys on small pullbacks.
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Cameron International Corporation (NYSE: CAM)

Cameron International Corporation provides flow equipment products, systems, and services worldwide. The company’s Subsea segment offers integrated solutions, products, systems, and services to the subsea oil and gas market, including integrated subsea production systems involving wellheads, subsea trees, manifolds and flowline connectors, and subsea processing systems. Its Surface segment provides onshore and offshore platform wellhead systems and processing solutions, including valves, chokes, actuators, Christmas trees, and aftermarket services to oil and gas operators. The company’s Drilling segment provides drilling equipment and aftermarket services. Its Valves & Measurement segment provides valves and measurement systems to control, direct, and measure the flow of oil and gas.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Cameron (NYSE: CAM) below with the added notations:
1-year chart of Cameron (NYSE: CAM)
CAM was moving along just fine up until the end of August, and from there the stock embarked on a 5-month decline that may, or may not, be over. During the sideways price action of the last 3 months, the stock has shown a tendency to find support and resistance at the $45 level (green). In addition, CAM appears to have a lower level of support at $42 (blue). CAM is currently sitting just under $45.

The Tale of the Tape: CAM has key levels at $42 and $45. A trader could enter a long position at $42 with a stop placed under the level. However, a short trade could be made instead at $45, or if the stock were to break below $42. Another long trade could be considered on a break above $45.
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Twitter TWTR Stock Jumps 6% To Take Buy Point

Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) broke out of a base on the stock market today, gaining more than 6%. The stock closed the session still in buy range.
The short-form social media platform recently unveiled group chat and more video capabilities to attract more users. Twitter also has a new agreement with Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) for the integration of tweets in real time in Google's search results.
Meanwhile, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) broke out of a cup-with-handle base last Thursday and is hitting new highs.
LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) has been trading relatively tight after gapping out of a flat base in early February.
Watch this video for chart analysis of Twitter.

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Tuesday, March 24, 2015

"Revolution, War, Taxes" - The Complete Paul Tudor Jones Speech

Paul Tudor Jones ruffled more than a few feathers last week when he warned first that "we're in the middle of a disastrous market mania," and second he explained that "this gap between the 1 percent and the rest of America, and between the US and the rest of the world, cannot and will not persist," concluding that "historically, these kinds of gaps get closed in one of three ways: by revolution, higher taxes or wars. None are on my bucket list." His thesis is simple and profound as the following full speech shows...
Ultimately, Tudor hopes, the free market will take hold and reward the companies that are the most just...
“Capitalism has driven just about every great innovation that has made our world a more prosperous, comfortable and inspiring place to live. But capitalism has to be based on justice and morality…and never more so than today with economic divisions large and growing.”
Read more here...

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Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX)

Barrick Gold Corporation produces and sells gold and copper. It is also involved in exploration and mine development activities. The company holds interests in various properties located in the United States, Zambia, Chile, Dominican Republic, Argentina, Tanzania, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Peru. As of December 31, 2013, the company had proven and probable mineral reserves of 104.1 million ounces of gold and 14.0 billion pounds of copper. Barrick Gold Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Barrick (NYSE: ABX) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Barrick (NYSE: ABX)
After a strong decline from mid-August until the end of December, ABX has been trading sideways over the last 4 months. During the sideways move the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
ABX’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $13 (red) and a $10 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: ABX is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $10 or on a breakout above $13. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $10.
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URGENT: Take Profits on These 3 Trades: Biotech iShares (NASDAQ:IBB), Health Care Select Sector SPDR (NYSE:XLV), and Russell 2000 iShares (NYSE:IWM)

I'm back in the saddle after roughing it in the desert for a week. I fended off mountain lion attacks…lost a few bucks betting on March Madness during a detour to Vegas…and meditated on the markets while staring up at the stars.
Stocks stabilized in my absence after wandering lower during that pesky early-March pullback. The major averages aren’t setting the world on fire right now, but some of our trades are getting a bit overheated…
So today we’re taking profits on three of them…(more)

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Trade of the Day: Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)

The residential construction group took a huge hit earlier this year when one of its smaller constituents fumbled its profits. From the way other neighborhood developers have maintained their margins, I suspect the risk of contagion is lower than Wall Street initially feared. While entry-level buyers are scarce, competition for contracts does not seem to be forcing many builders to offer concessions to more established homeowners looking to trade up.
In this context, homebuilder stocks like Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV) look cheap even if the housing market simply keeps muddling along through spring. I’m not so sure that’s going to happen, but that’s beside the point.
Hovnanian’s center of gravity remains east of Indiana, with most open inventory in California and Texas limited to high-end housing. While Texas might be a risk factor, inventory there is relatively small, concentrated in the more economically diversified markets of Galveston and Houston. Galveston is not shale country, and Houston is the heart of the “new” Texas, where resource extraction now only accounts for 3% of all employment.
None of this seems to argue for the 7% haircut HOV has seen in March — and Wall Street seems to agree. Although the wide float and low share price make the math for earnings per share tricky, analysts have only reined in their net-earnings estimates by 0.7% since West Coast counterpart KB Home (KBH) sent up the flares on Jan. 13. They may all be grossly wrong, but they’ve had plenty of time now to adjust their models.
If they’re on track, all HOV needs to do is hit their $4.07 consensus price target in the next few months to get within sight of scoring a solid win.
The stock has also been caught up recently in news that February was a not-so-great month for housing construction. I believe this was largely due to the weather, but I’ll be watching closely for any signs of catch-up activity as the spring thaw moves across the company’s core markets in the Northeast United States.
Meanwhile, the chart already seems to be recovering.

The stock’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is approaching a bullish signal cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bouncing out of near-oversold weakness.
What I like about this company has not changed. This is a stock for which the worst-case scenario is already priced in, giving it a multiple below 2X trailing earnings and a doomsday forward valuation that’s still roughly 50% discounted to the broad market. While the stock is certainly vulnerable to housing market sentiment, this remains a well-managed company with a chart that looks ready to make its next run.

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Martin Armstrong on Bill C-51: About Money Not Security; and James Corbett on China

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Monday, March 23, 2015

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A)

Royal Dutch Shell plc operates as an independent oil and gas company worldwide. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The company explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It also converts natural gas to liquids to provide fuels and other products; markets and trades natural gas; extracts bitumen from mined oil sands and converts it to synthetic crude oil; and generates electricity from wind energy. The company holds interests in approximately 24 refineries; 1,500 storage tanks; and 150 distribution facilities. It sells fuels under the Shell V-Power brand. Royal Dutch Shell plc is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Royal (NYSE: RDS/A) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Royal (NYSE: RDS/A)
Like most energy related stocks, RDS/A fell on hard times during the summer and fall. Even recently the stock hit a new 52-week low. However, yesterday RDS/A actually broke back above the prior level of support at $60. That break should mean higher prices for the stock in the short-term, at minimum.

The Tale of the Tape: RDS/A had a key level of support at $60 that it has now broke back above. A trader could enter a long position at $60 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below $60 a short position could be entered instead.
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Protecting Yourself with Gold, Oil and Index ETF’s


Crude oil and energy stocks are tricky to navigate in a situation like this where the equities market is nearing a bull market top.
It is critical to remember that when the US stock market turns down and starts a bear market virtually all stocks and commodities will fall in value including oil and energy stocks. Investors need to understand that even though the price of crude oil is nearing a bottom it could and will likely stay low for a considerable amount of time “IF” the stock market turns down.
Over the last 100 years we have seen nearly thirty 30 bear markets. The average length of a bear market is 18 months and has an average decline of 30%.
I do feel currency problems and a war breakout will be bullish for both oil and gold. So if we get a bear market in equities, and a war oil and oil should rally while stocks in general fall.
But if we do not have those sever crisis’ then if gold and oil break below their critical support level which is the red line on the charts and a bear market in stocks start you do not want to be long stocks or commodities.


The chart below shows the line in the sand for the price of crude oil. If this level is broken with a monthly bar close below $43 per/barrel I think $30-$33 will be the next stop and the low for the oil market. It seems everyone is bullish on precious metals and have been buying like crazy.
The points I made about gold which I talked about in PART II should be reread because if the support levels are broken oil will fall 40%, and gold another 35% from their current prices.
Below are some ETFs that takes advantage of rising oil prices. While there are other funds that cover oil stocks I feel they may not perform well during the equities bear market. Investing in physical oil is the best play at this stage of the game but when the equities bear market looks to be nearing an end, energy stocks will be the best place to invest.


In short, I feel crude oil will has or will find a bottom within the next couple months. Long term the value is great, but we must be aware that if equities start a bear market it will be best close all equity positions and wait for the bear market to subside. When the time is right investing in crude oil and energy stocks which pay high dividends will generate life changing gains and an income stream. Patients is the key.
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Steelcase (NYSE: SCS): Breakout Predicts This Stock is Headed for a Double-Digit Rally

One of my favorite times to trade a stock is just as it's breaking out of a base. If there is a clear, definable stop-loss nearby, so much the better since my risk is limited.
And when the fundamentals support the bullish technicals, the probability that I have found a successful trade is high.
Enter Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), a Michigan-based manufacturer that was founded in 1912. Its first patent was granted in 1914 for a steel, fireproof wastebasket, revolutionary for its time.
At first glance, the company looks like a maker of conventional office furniture and related products. It makes ergonomic chairs, tables, bookcases and cabinets. It also provides LED desk lamps and presentation technology such as interactive whiteboards that fuse analog and digital content. Its products are delivered through a network of independent dealers with 650 locations around the world. (more)

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The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar Just As Storage Runs Out

zerohedge.com /  by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2015 17:58
Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.

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GSR Interviews MARTIN ARMSTRONG – March 19, 2015

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Feb.   -- 0.33 3-mo.
10 am Existing home sales Feb.   4.94 mln 4.82 mln
8:30 am Consumer price index Feb.   0.2% -0,7%
8:30 am Core CPI Feb.
0.1% 0.2%
9 am FHFA home price index Jan.   --  
9:45 am Markit PMI flash March   -- 55.1
10 am New home sales Feb.   453,000 481,000
WEDNESDAY, march 25
8:30 am Durable goods orders Feb.   0.6% 2.8%
THURSDAY, march 26
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims March 21
293,000 291,000
FRIDAY, march 27
8:30 am GDP 4Q   2.4% 2.2%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment March   92.4 91.2
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Saturday, March 21, 2015

Prestigious Firm Just Issued A MAJOR ALERT On The Gold And Silver Space

from King World News
Today one of the prestigious firms that has been successfully forecasting markets for over 60 years just put out a MAJOR ALERT on the gold and silver space! This is an incredibly important report for anyone who is invested in or thinking about investing in physical gold and silver or the mining shares.
From Investors Intelligence, whose legendary work is revered around the globe: “Ecouraging action on the P&F price chart for the gold & silver miners led us to analyze the sector. We consider the potential for further strength.
Rotations into the gold & silver miners from the S&P 500, banks, transports, consumer staples, industrials and biotech are assessed. The final sector is the only area we would not rotate from.
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…
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GDXJ/Gold Ratio

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan

This key predictive ratio continues to struggle when it comes to gaining upside traction. It remains below the starting level of the year.
The HUI/Gold ratio looks a bit better but certainly nothing to write home about.
[...] Consistent with the weak-showing in this ratio, gold is struggling to breach overhead resistance on its chart emerging near $1175 and extending up to the old familiar $1180 level.
Continue Reading at TraderDan.com…
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Japanese Bonds Going Down Big Time

from Financial Survival Network
Tres Knipa has been trading commodities for many years. He believes that shorting the Yen and Japanese Government Bonds is the trade of a lifetime.
It is his opinion that long term there is a significant likelihood Japan will experience a sovereign debt crisis and a notably weaker currency. As a result, he believes there is opportunity in being net short the Japanese Government Bond market and the Yen. Although no one can guarantee the future and there is risk in making such a trade, he is devoted to providing you with a variety of information and analysis that he believes supports his opinion, as well as an avenue to participate in the opportunity yourself.
You can follow Tres’ work at ShortJapanDebt.com.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO): Three Stocks to Profit From Surging U.S. Oil Inventories

“Jody, where can a person invest his money and be guaranteed to make 50% in the next six months?”
No. The question above isn’t from our reader mailbag. Instead, this is the recurring dialogue between me and my cousin Brad at family gatherings.
Below, I’ll share my typical response. I’ll also share three tickers that provide a decent shot at a 50% gain without taking on much risk.
The question above is one I mentally prepare myself for each time my family gets together. Here’s my response and the ensuing back-and-forth…(more)

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WPX Energy Inc (NYSE: WPX)

WPX Energy, Inc., an independent natural gas and oil exploration and production company, engages in the exploitation and development of unconventional properties in the United States. The company focuses on exploiting natural gas reserves base and related natural gas liquids in the Piceance Basin of the Rocky Mountain region, as well as developing and growing oil positions in the Williston Basin in North Dakota and the San Juan Basin in the southwestern United States. As of December 31, 2014, it had proved reserves of 4,360 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent. WPX Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of WPX (NYSE: WPX) with the added notations:
1-year chart of WPX (NYSE: WPX)
WPX has been in a solid downward slide since its September peak. However, over the last 3 months the stock has been finding support at $10 (green). Now that the stock is there again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $10 support were to break, much lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: WPX has a key level of support at $10. A trader could enter a long position at $10 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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Crude Oil To $70 In the Second Quarter?

Since the oil crash first began last summer, I have constantly been asked how low I think Crude Oil prices could go, and especially so the past few months. My answer has been pretty consistent, “I have no idea”. To me there have been so many easier trades to be in out there that messing around with this disaster hasn’t been worth the aggravation. As a market participant that has to allocate assets and manage risk responsibly, fooling around with crude oil has not fit our risk profile with respect to any potential upside. It just hasn’t been there.

Well I actually think we might be getting that. Over the past couple of weeks Crude Oil prices have rolled over and are hitting levels not seen since early 2009, right around the time that the epic 200% rally first got going. I use a 14-day RSI as my momentum indicator and on these new lows in price, RSI is putting in a higher low. Here’s what it looks like:
2015-03-20_11-58-47 cl
From a risk management perspective, there is zero reason to own Crude Oil if prices are below the January lows. So at the very least, we have a clean level to watch. It is marked by the gray shaded area. Above the January lows, and I believe that a mean reversion could really get going. Look how extended the price is from the mean (defined by a 200 day simple moving average).

So here’s how I see it. We know that sentiment right now is near historic bearish extremes rarely seen in the past. So that’s one for the bulls. Second, it looks to me like the US Dollar has put in at least a temporary top (see here and here). If that is indeed the case, that’s gotta help Oil get a little boost. Seasonally, this is the most bullish time of the year for Crude Oil prices as we exit the worst period. And finally, most importantly, this new low the past 2 weeks could be a whipsaw. If we break back above the January lows, this confirms a bear trap leaving all the new shorts caught under support and all the longs that were stopped out of the trade now have to buy it back. This creates momentum as all of the wrong shorts get squeezed and have to cover while all of the longs stopped out have to re-buy. When momentum guys like myself catch this, more buying comes in, not to mention the natural buying already taking place anyway. This then leads to more short covering and more longs “not in the trade” re-buying.

Granted, this is all the best possible scenario here that could create an epic short-squeeze to take crude oil north of $70. From a risk/reward standpoint, there a very few setups that are skewed this much in one’s favor. If we never break out, then who cares. We’ve remained patient this whole time, what’s another few weeks/months? And if we buy the breakout and we rollover again and get stopped out? Oh well. I’d take that risk/reward 100 times out of 100, which is the only thing that really matters to me.
Gun to my head? I think we break out and I’m an aggressive buyer of that breakout.
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Friday, March 20, 2015

Paul Tudor Jones Warns This “Disastrous Market Mania” Will End “By Revolution, Taxes, Or War”

“This gap between the 1% and the rest of America, and between the US and the rest of the world, cannot and will not persist,” warns renowned trader Paul Tudor Jones during his recent TED Talks speech, as he addressed the question – can capital be just? Hoping to expand the “narrow definitions of capitalism,” that threaten the underpinnings of society, Tudor Jones exclaims, “we’re in the middle of a disastrous market mania,” adding “one of worst of my life.” Perhaps most ominously, he concludes, historically this ends “by revolution, higher taxes or wars. None are on my bucket list.”
As TED blog reports,
Can capital be just? As a firm believer in capitalism and the free market, Paul Tudor Jones II believes that it can be. Tudor is the founder of the Tudor Investment Corporation and the Tudor Group, which trade in the fixed-income, equity, currency and commodity markets. He thinks it is time to expand the “narrow definitions of capitalism” that threaten the underpinnings of our society and develop a new model for corporate profit that includes justness and responsibility.
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Celgene Corporation CELG: The Next Biotech Stock to Breakout

Another day, another new all-time high for biotech stocks. The clock-like consistency with which the hottest sector on Wall Street vaults to new heights each week is almost scary.
And yet, the biotech boom rolls on. While this may end badly at some point, no sense in fretting over the inevitable end of a trend. Simply ride it while it lasts.
The next stock bulls should set their sights on is Celgene  Corporation  (NASDAQ:CELG). Unlike many of its peers who have already launched from support or well established bases, CELG stock is just now attempting to break out of a multi-month ascending triangle.

CELG stock CELG: The Next Biotech Stock to Go Boom
A closer inspection of Celgene’s stock chart reveals resistance in the $125 zone. A break above this price level will complete and confirm the setup. The series of higher pivot lows that has taken root over the past two months suggests an increasing aggression by dip buyers willing to snatch up shares at higher prices. As the apex of the triangle approaches a breakout becomes increasingly likely.

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Could 10% Dividend Yielder Crescent Point Energy Corp (NYSE:CPG) Rebound 40% ?

Crescent Point Energy Corp (NYSE:CPG) — This Canadian oil and gas producer is a standout because of its strong balance sheet and high, stable dividend yield. It is currently the largest holding in Guggenheim Canadian Energy Income ETF (NYSE:ENY).

Last week, analysts at Raymond James Financial, Inc. (NYSE:RJF) upgraded CPG stock to “outperform” from “market perform” and increased their target price to $34 from $32. They said that Crescent Point is “one of the only high-yielding energy names with a sustainable business model in a prolonged lower oil price environment.”

Despite the massive decline in crude prices, the company posted record Q4 revenues and production. And management said it could see cost savings in the 15%-20% range this year.

CPG stock has three big potential catalysts: The strong likelihood of a rebound in oil prices, a subsequent strengthening of the Canadian dollar (now at $0.78 U.S.), and it 10.3% dividend yield, which is paid monthly and should provide support for shares if oil prices do continue to fall.

Technically, even though CPG stock is in a bear market, there are signs that a bottom may be near. Buying volume has outpaced selling volume since the low at $18.38 in mid-December. CPG stock failed to hold above its 50-day moving average in the second half of 2014. But it penetrated it in February for the first time since it topped near $44 this summer.

Buy CPG stock under $21.50 with a target of $30. If this is met, investors could see a return of 40%, plus dividends.
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Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) Stock Pop and Global X Funds (NASDAQ:SOCL) Look Bullish

Shares of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) jumped 1% this morning, showing strength amid a rather lackluster day on Wall Street. With stocks mixed ahead of this afternoon’s highly anticipated Federal Reserve announcement, the pop in FB stock was easy to spot as a potential haven for hot money.
Before following the herd into FB stock, however, be aware of it faces a brick wall of resistance, heretofore impenetrable.
More on that in a moment.

But first, it’s worth noting the Facebook stock rally was accompanied by a long awaited breakout in the social media-based Global X Funds (NASDAQ:SOCL). I first mentioned the potential for a big move in the SOCL ETF last month. It certainly took its time, but the bullish action in the fund was pretty convincing this week.
SOCL ETF FB Stock Pop Looks Enticing, But This Should Give You Pause
Source: Stockcharts.com
Further strength in SOCL should aid Facebook’s coming breakout attempt.
As the chart below shows, FB has been locked in its range-bound prison between $81.50 and $72.50 for eight months. And it’s not like the stock pays a dividend, so don’t think investors have been getting paid to wait. 
Any and all previous bids at breaching overhead resistance have flopped, so bulls have their work cut out for them if the current attempt is going to succeed.
FB stock FB Stock Pop Looks Enticing, But This Should Give You Pause
Source: Stockcharts.com
Would-be FB stock buyers seeking more confirmation that today’s rally will continue should wait until we break above the $81.50 zone before piling in.

Should the FB Breakout Come, Play It With Options

Traders looking for a cheaper alternative to buying Facebook shares could consider buying call options on the breakout. With implied volatility at the lower end of its one-year range options premiums are definitely on the cheap side these days.
Buy the Jun $77.50 calls. The current price is $6, but if you wait for a breakout (which I suggest) the price should be a bit higher.
The risk is limited to the initial debit paid, while the reward is unlimited.
Should FB finally break free of its range and embark on a new uptrend, you’ll be well-positioned to profit with these call options.
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