Tuesday, April 15, 2014

VIX Complacency Suggest Stocks Fall Further

While US equities have spent much of the past several weeks under pressure (the NASDAQ bio tech index has fallen over 21%, the NASDAQ Comp is down over 8% and the S&P500 is down over 4%), BofAML’s Macneil Curry is concerned that theVIX index suggests conditions should deteriorate further before greater signs of a base materialize.
Since 2012 most tradable market lows have come only after the VIX has pushed north of 20%. It is currently only 17%.
In such an environment, US Treasuries should rally further. Indeed, US 10yr yields have broken below key resistance at 2.608%/2.632%, exposing the long term pivot zone of 2.469%/2.399%. The Japanese ¥ should benefit as well. The 200d in $/¥ is key (100.81) A break below would do significant psychological damage and force out many trend followers.
Chart of the week: The VIX is not where it needs to be
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Parex Resources (TSX: PXT) Could Hit $15 Per Share

Canadian domiciled and listed Parex Resources (TSX: PXT), a junior oil producer operating in Colombia, is fast shaping up as one of the most exciting plays for investors seeking high growth emerging markets opportunities. Already the company’s share price has shot up a staggering 114% over the last year and there are a number of catalysts indicating it is still undervalued and will continue to climb in value.

Management has also indicated they believe the market is failing to recognize Parex’s true value. Accordingly, a share buyback was initiated in March 2014, which is scheduled to end either in March 2015 or when just over 10 million common shares have been acquired, representing around 10% of the total float. This will certainly act in concert with the catalysts below to drive Parex’s share price higher. (more)

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Tidewater Inc. (NYSE: TDW)

Tidewater Inc. provides offshore service vessels and marine support services through the operation of a fleet of marine service vessels. It provides services in support of offshore exploration, field development, and production, including towing of and anchor handling for mobile offshore drilling units; transporting supplies and personnel necessary to sustain drilling, work over, and production activities; offshore construction, ROV operations and various specialized services, such as pipe and cable laying. The company operates and charters deepwater vessels, including platform supply vessels, and anchor handling towing supply vessels that are used in transporting supplies and equipment from shore bases to deepwater and intermediate water depth offshore drilling rigs, platforms, and other installations; towing-supply and supply vessels for use in intermediate and shallow waters; and crewboats and utility vessels for use in transporting personnel and supplies from shore bases to offshore drilling rigs, platforms, and other installations.
To review Tidewater’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TDW (Tidewater, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TDW (Tidewater, Inc.)
TDW has been trading sideways for the last 2 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $50 (red). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $46 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels the rectangle pattern has created.

The Tale of the Tape: TDW has a clear level of support at $46 and resistance ($50). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $46, or on a breakout above $50. The ideal short opportunities would be on either a break below $46 or on a rally back up to $50.
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Niska Gas Storage Partners (NYSE: NKA) A 9.6% Yield With The Best MLP You've Never Heard Of

Bond investors have a good thing going for them. They finance part of a company's operations in exchange for a return of capital at a later date and pocket steady interest payments along the way.
True, they miss out on any growth the company might have, but for the most part they're exposed to minimal risk. But what if you could have both an equity position and receive a high yield as well?
Enter the master limited partnership (MLP). This asset class behaves much like common stocks do; they're highly liquid, and as a shareholder, you benefit from the growth of the company. The secret to the appeal of MLPs lies in the tax treatment. Unlike a standard corporation, MLPs aren't required to pay any taxes; instead they pass it on to unit holders. (more)
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Jim Rickards: The Coming Crisis is Bigger Than The Fed

And will arrive within the next 3-5 years
Full description and comments at: http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast…
James Rickards, financier and author of the excellent cautionary best-seller Currency Wars, has recently released a follow-on book: The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System. In it, Jim details how history provides plenty of precedent for the collapse that has begun amidst the major world currencies.
The historical progression is predictable enough that Jim is comfortable claiming that the next economic crisis we face will be bigger than the ability of the Federal Reserve (and the other world central banks) to contain it. And that such a calamity will happen within the next five years.

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Three Beat Up Momentum Stocks: ATRO, DXYN, SYUT

Astronics (ATRO - Snapshot Report) is a manufacturer of specialized lighting and electronics for the cockpit, cabin and exteriors of military, commercial transport and private business jet aircraft. ATRO is insulated within the aerospace and defense equipment industry that ranks in the top 31% of our Zacks Industry Rank. Currently, ATRO is a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).
The earnings story has been strong for ATRO for most of the last four years, with one major rough patch coming in 2012. Since then year over year numbers have improved and earnings estimates have continued to be revised to the upside. The price and consensus chart below shows the story of earnings over the last several years.

The technical picture may be turning a corner for ATRO. Usually I look for stocks trading above their 25 day moving average shifted by 5 days (25x5) that are firmly in uptrends.  (more)
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