2013 Forecast - Tis The Season To Drink & Own Coffee

Coffee prices have fallen more than 50% since 2010 which can be seen through the coffee exchange traded fund symbol: JO. This investment seeks to replicate the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in coffee futures contracts as well as the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills.
Weekly, Hourly and Seasonal chart of JO Coffee Exchange Traded Fund
The top weekly chart shows my price targets for 2013 while the lower hourly chart shows strong on balance volume meaning big money is slowly building a long position in coffee. The small white chart is the seasonal chart of coffee futures showing prices historically rise from Jan  - March, then a correction followed by another rally in to May.
Coffee prices are still in a down trend but it looks as though the end is near and if played properly it could provide up to 100% return on your capital in 2013.


Coffee Futures Monthly Long Term Chart
This chart gives you a bird's eye view on where coffee prices are trading in the big picture scheme of things.

JO Coffee ETF VS. SBUX Starbucks Share Price:

Lower coffee bean prices has helped lift share prices of coffee companies like Starbucks: SBUX, Coffee Holdings Co.: JVA, Coffee Roasters Inc.: GMCR, and PEET's Coffee: PEET. But cheap coffee may not be around that much longer and the lower earnings for coffee brewers may be closer than most may think.

2013 Caffeine Conclusion:

In short, I have been watching coffee prices for a bottoming pattern for months and I now feel it is getting really close to a bottom and it could be a great trade and investment in the new year. As for companies like Starbucks it will likely not have much of an affect on the bottom line until the second half of the year though it is something to keep an eye on during earning seasons.

Alasdair Macleod’s Outlook for 2013

from Gold Money:

I have not faced the prospect of a new year with so much trepidation as when I contemplate what is in store for 2013. Systemic risks abound, which of themselves are not the main story, only milestones on the road to final currency destruction, unless governments somehow regain their senses.
To help understand the perils of 2013 I shall give them their background context first before listing them individually. No such list can be exhaustive or temporally sequenced, but all on it have the same root: the long-term accumulation of a burden of unsupportable debt.
This is a story that started with the end of the First World War, and involves a world which replaced laissez-faire with political motivation in economic and monetary affairs, moving away from wealth-creation into wealth-destruction in the cause of the common good. This was what motivated Keynes.
Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA)

Under Armour, Inc. engages in the design, development, marketing, and distribution of apparel, footwear, and accessories for men, women, and youth worldwide. The company offers its apparel in three fit types: compression, fitted, and loose that are designed to be worn in hot, cold, and changing temperatures. Its footwear products include football, baseball, lacrosse, softball and soccer cleats, as well as slides, performance training footwear, running footwear, basketball footwear, and hunting boots for athletes. The company’s accessories comprise baseball batting, football, golf, and running gloves; and licensees offer socks, team uniforms, baby and kids’ apparel, eyewear, and custom-molded mouth guards, as well as hats and bags. Under Armour, Inc. sells its products primarily under the UA and UNDER ARMOUR brands through wholesale channels, which include independent and specialty retailers, institutional athletic departments, leagues and teams, national and regional sporting goods chains, and department store chains.

To analyze Armour’s stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of UA (Under Armour, Inc.) below with my added notations:

 

UA had held a strong level of support at $45 (navy) from March through July before rallying to its September peak. Since then, the stock has been selling off and has recently fallen below the $50 level (brown). Now, it would appear that UA is on the way back down to the old $45 support.

USDA: Higher Food Prices In 2013

2013 Expectations

thedailybell.com / By Andrew Hoffman /
In last December’s “2012 EXPECTATIONS,” I expressed reluctance to predict near-term events.  Frankly, I find most “year-ahead” forecasts to be USELESS; particularly when utilized as marketing tools rather than honest thought pieces.  I feel no differently of this age-old rite of the financial industry; so again, I am caveating my “forecast” with the following disclaimer…

I mean, who knows what will happen?  There are simply too many moving parts to gauge, as the global economy is a ‘living system’ comprised of volatile, unpredictable human beings and – in today’s world – increasingly dangerous computer algorithms capable of reeking incomprehensible damage by accident.  Throw in the wrath of Mother Nature – who in recent years has been on the warpath; and the largest unknown of all – collective human confidence – and such forecasts become comical at best.
Nearly all “2013 forecasts” I’ve read thus far are simple extrapolations of what we see today; a psychological trait common to all human activity, particularly in financial markets where for centuries investors have ‘bought high and sold low’ – following the near-term trend instead of understanding the bigger picture.
Given these constraints, and exponential growth in government market intervention – both OVERT and COVERT; I will not attempt any wild predictions – “pulled out of my arse,” as some might say.  Instead, I will cite general trends that I expect to continue, if not accelerate, in the coming 12 months.  Forgive me if I too, fall victim to the “extrapolation bias.”

That said, I reviewed my 2012 forecasts and found them to be pretty close to reality – by essentially ALL metrics – per the bullet points below…

1. The European debt crisis will dramatically deteriorate
2. The U.S. Economy will weaken­  
3. “Global QE” will become increasingly OVERT
4. Gold will rise for the 12th straight year  
5. Gold will not remain below its 200 DMA for long
6. The gold/silver ratio will decline
7. Market volatility will EXPLODE  
8. Survivalism” will grow, worldwide
9. The 2012 U.S. elections will break all records of campaign contributions, lies, smear campaigns, and SURPRISES
10. Most investments will be deadly

READ MORE

8x8 Could Offer a Quick Double-Digit Return

By now, "the cloud" -- the space where data is electronically stored in the ether -- is old news. Less known, however, and potentially far more profitable for traders, is a trend emerging from cloud computing called "unified communications."

Unified communications can be thought of as a technological system that integrates several communication tools -- such as phone, video conferencing and instant messaging services -- into a single, easy to access and use service. When integrated into the cloud, the system allows anyone, anywhere to securely access data through a computer or smartphone, without the need for multiple machines or apps.

The unified communications industry is growing rapidly. A recent study by research firm Frost & Sullivan concluded unified communications will be a $1.9 billion industry in 2012, up about 16% from 2011.

One of the best-known publically traded unified communications companies is 8x8 (NASDAQ: EGHT), a large Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) provider in the United States. The company offers its customers unified voice, video and mobile communications solutions, from voicemail and call center services to virtual offices with all data stored in the cloud. 8x8 occupies a defined market niche, catering to small- and medium-sized enterprises, while leaving larger companies to tech giants like Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO).

Recently, Gartner, a leading IT research firm, ranked 8x8 as a North American market leader. In the past several months, 8x8 has added thousands of new subscribers and now serves more than 30,000 businesses. As the need increases for small-scale businesses to have teleconferencing and virtual communications solutions, 8x8 should continue to grow.

From a technical perspective, the stock looks strong.

Since the stock's May 2010 low of $1.09, shares have been in a major uptrend, up almost 600%. The stock recently hit a multi-year high of $7.58, and the technicals point to further price appreciation ahead.

In July 2012, the stock popped nearly 25% in a week. Continuing higher from there, an accelerated uptrend line formed. In September, shares hit a high of $7.02, but encountered resistance. Soon after, the stock fell to a low near $5.73, which acted as support.

This initial trading activity marked the beginning of a "W" shaped technical formation, which if it were at the bottom of the formation, would look suspiciously like an inverse head-and-shoulders.

Surging off support in early October, the stock quickly rose to $7.02 resistance, which it unsuccessfully tested twice before falling again to $5.73 support by late October. In early-November, the stock rose off $5.73 support and quickly climbed to $7.02 resistance.

In early December, resistance at $7.02 was finally broken. During the Dec. 17 trading week, the stock hit a multi-year high of $7.58. This shortened holiday trading week, shares held near this level albeit on lower than normal trading volume.

According to the measuring principle for the small "W" shaped basing pattern -- calculated by adding the height of the pattern to the breakout level -- the stock could potentially reach a new high of $8.31 ($7.02-$5.73 = $1.29; $7.02+$1.29 = $8.31). At current levels, this target represents 14% potential returns.

This bullish technical outlook is supported by strong fundamentals. With a surge of new customers adding paid services, analysts project fiscal first-quarter 2013 (ending Dec. 31) revenue will rise 17% to $27.3 million, from $23.3 million, in the comparable year-ago quarter. For the full fiscal 2013 year, the seven analysts following the company expect that an increase in new customers will cause revenue to rise 25% to $107.2 million, from $85.8 million last year.

The earnings outlook is similarly positive. Driven by an increase in new customers for the upcoming fiscal third-quarter, analysts project earnings will rise to $0.05, from $0.04 in the same period a year-ago. For the full fiscal 2013 year, analysts expect increased demand for VoIP services will cause earnings to nearly double, reaching $0.20, from $0.11 last year.

In addition to a strong fundamental outlook, the company is in a cash-solid position with $40.1 million in available cash and no long-term debt.

Risks to consider: Because the unified communications sphere is lucrative, it is also becoming increasingly competitive. Well-established companies, like AT&T (NYSE: T), Sprint (NYSE: S) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) have all begun offering competing voice communication services. However, these companies charge extra for messaging and web conferencing options. In contrast, 8x8 offers its customers one low-cost, all-inclusive price for its complete host of services. This low-cost strategy should continue to retain and draw customers, helping the stock stay strong.

Copper ETFs and Copper Stocks About To Move Big

With 2012 now behind us it's time to start looking for some new long term investments which have big potential gains in the new year. Copper is one metal that has caught my eye.
The long term monthly chart of the copper ETF JJC shows a potential cup and handle pattern accompanied with bullish volume characteristics. Last year copper traded sideways in a narrowing range. This type of price action tends to bore traders and investors forcing them to look elsewhere for new to trades. The saying is "If the market doesn't shake you out, it will wait you out"
You can see on the monthly chart that the interest in this commodity diminished. You can tell because of the sideways movement and declining volume. I like to focus on investments which are out of favor but are showing signs of another big trend starting. getting on the train before it leaves the station can make for a fun ride.
Take a look at the charts, analysis and my best copper stock setup below:
JJC - Copper Total Return ETN Profile
Description: The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).

Copper Miner Stocks ETF COPX - Weekly Chart

This ETF holds a basket of copper mining stocks which is showing signs of a new trend starting. Take a look at the top holdings stocks and fund breakdown to get a feel for the exposure it provides.
COPX Top Ten Holdings

1. Inmet Mining Corporation (IEMMF): 6.62%
2. KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH): 5.24%
3. Xstrata PLC (XTA): 5.04%
4. Grupo Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. (GMEXICO B): 4.89%
5. Jiangxi Copper Company Limited H Shares (00358): 4.83%
6. HudBay Minerals, Inc. (HBM): 4.82%
7. Antofagasta PLC (ANTO): 4.78%
8. Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): 4.75%
9. Lundin Mining Corp (LUNMF): 4.55%
10. Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ): 4.55%

Best Copper Stock Setup - LUNMF
After reviewing the main holdings in this fund I noticed one stock that looks ready to start a new bull market. Lundin Mining. shares look to be building a Stage 1 base and could break out and start to rally any week. Keep in mind 3/4 stocks move with the broad market so we do want the major indexes to find a bottom or at least trade sideways if we want copper stocks to start their run.


Copper Futures, ETF and Stock Trading Conclusion:
Copper has lost its shine over the past 12 months but could start to make headline news in the near future. I like both COPX and LUNMF if we see further strength.

Chart of the Day - Standard Motor Parts

 In the past quarter SMP has posted new highs in 22 trading sessions and is up 18.40% for that period.  Analysts are high on the stock and look for increased revenue and earning in the coming year. SMP manufactures and distributes replacement parts for motor vehicles. They are now organized into two principal segments, each focused on a specific type of replacement part. The Engine Management Division consists primarily of ignition and emission parts, on-board computers, ignition wires, battery cables and fuel system parts. The Temperature Control Division consists primarily of air conditioning compressors, other air conditioning parts and heater parts.