When it comes to the automotive market sector,
there are numerous factors to consider when looking for stocks as an
investment opportunity. Obviously, America is not booming, but growing
at a very slow pace, yet there might be some possibilities for an
investment opportunity.
With interest rates set to be low until
2015, this means that financing for cars will be extremely affordable
for the next few years. Currently, the interest rates banks are charging
for car loans are among the lowest since 1971, when the Federal Reserve
started keeping track of such data. This will greatly increase the
affordability of product in the automotive market sector, and should
allow for an investment opportunity.
Data just released by
Autodata Corp., the market research firm, say sales of cars and light
trucks in November jumped by 15% to 1.14 million units from year-ago
levels. The annualized rate for the automobile market sector is 15.5
million units, the highest since January 2008. (Source: “U.S. November
Auto Sales Rise,”
Bloomberg, December 3, 2012, accessed December 6, 2012.)
One
of the firms in the automotive market sector that I brought to my
readers’ attention several months ago was Ford Motor Company (NYSE/F),
when it was below $10.00 per share. Ford reported a year-over-year
increase of 6.4% in total for November, to 177,092 vehicles. Sales of
small cars were up an astonishing 76% year-over-year, the highest in 12
years. The “F-Series” pickup truck increased sales by 18%
year-over-year, the strongest since 2005.
Obviously, this is not a
coincidence. The low interest rate environment encouraged by the
Federal Reserve is working in some areas of the economy. We all know
that real estate is starting to rebound, and now we’re seeing several
months of strong sales in the automotive market sector.
As I noted
several months ago, this investment opportunity is based on an easy
monetary policy, along with a rebound in the housing market. The senior
economist at Ford, Jenny Lynn, echoed my sentiment in the conference
call, stating, “Economic indicators are pointing to modest economic
growth with a better housing sector ahead.” (Source:
Ibid)
The
interesting item to note is that the automotive market sector is having
strong sales, in spite of a weak economy. As an investment opportunity,
as long as the fiscal cliff issue is resolved, and the economy picks up
steam next year, we could see significant increases in both revenue and
earnings for the automotive market sector. Over the short term, damage
due to Hurricane Sandy will increase vehicle sales on the East Coast
between 20,000 and 30,000, according to Ford.
One caveat for Ford
is related to some very serious European concerns. The market sector in
Europe is clearly in trouble, but when such an event occurs, it
sometimes can provide an investment opportunity for the long-term shareholder.
Europe
makes up approximately less than a quarter of Ford’s revenue. While
this is clearly not immaterial, the profitability in America should
cover this exposure. The company is doing the right thing; cutting costs
in Europe and focusing on the most profitable parts of the world.
Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com
Ford
has clearly broken its downtrend, as well as the triangle formation.
While the company offers an interesting long-term investment
opportunity, one should never rush into a stock. The automotive market
sector still has several potential speed-bumps on the road, including
the fiscal cliff and Europe.
The automotive market sector has two
conflicting themes going forward. The first is an economy that’s growing
slowly, while the second is the wind in their sails from an easy
monetary policy that’s creating a resurgence in the housing market and
car sales. The investment opportunity is clearly to err towards the
bullish side long-term. The American fleet is aging, and the new
vehicles built by all of the firms within the automotive market sector
are far more fuel-efficient than ever before. One should be patient, and
look for opportunistic entry points into stocks like Ford, as long as
revenue continues to grow and the stock remains above its support
levels.