Monday, June 30, 2014

American Capital Ltd. (NASDAQ: ACAS)

American Capital, Ltd. is a private equity and venture capital firm specializing in management and employee buyouts, subordinated debt, leveraged finance, mezzanine, acquisition, recapitalization, middle market, early venture, mature, industry consolidation, and growth capital investments. The firm seeks to invest in senior debt mezzanine, unitranche, and equity financing for buyouts of private equity firms and direct in private and public companies. It also invests in special situations and in government. In special situations, the firm invests in troubled situations and in distressed situations. The firm also considers smaller investments as add-on acquisitions for existing portfolio companies.
To review American’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ACAS (American Capital, Ltd.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ACAS (American Capital, Ltd.)
Over the last 5 or 6 months ACAS has traded mostly sideways, while forming a trend line of support (blue). Always remember that any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its relevance. As you can see, the market deems ACAS’ trendline to be very important. In addition, the stock also has a key level of resistance at $16 (red).

The Tale of the Tape: ACAS has a trend line support and a $16 resistance. A long position could be entered on a break above $16, or on a pullback to the trendline, with a stop placed below the level of entry. A short position could be entered if ACAS were to break below trendline or if the rally continues up to $16.
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Prepare for a Natural Gas Price Explosion

In my last article, I discussed how ISIS’ actions in Iraq [1] aren’t likely to send oil prices blasting higher in the short term.
Supplies are simply too plentiful for prices to experience a major spike.
For natural gas, however, a price explosion is imminent…
Indeed, even though natural gas is such an abundant resource, there are other factors in play right now that point to a significant increase in prices over the next six to eight months.
In fact, seeing natural gas reach the $6 level by December isn’t out of the question.
A Roadmap to $6 Natural Gas
Remember, the trajectory for natural gas prices is decided mainly by five factors: usage predictions, demand forecasts, current inventory levels, a healthy dose of speculation and – of course – the weather.
Let’s take a closer look at the first four…
Price Driver #1: Usage. We’re certainly going to see greater commercial usage of natural gas – both for transportation (the fastest-growing segment) and for electricity generation. Because of tougher carbon emission regulations, many power plants are transitioning out of coal and into natural gas.  (more)

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Sinovac Biotech Ltd – SVA

SVA has been on a tear since 2012 and has recently pulled back to work off some of it’s overbought condition. While there is a risk of this pulling back further, I think now is a good time to initiate a starter position as this could retest it’s highs in the coming months. I like the position of the RSI here and as it gets closer to 40. Typically that is an area after a big run-up it finds support. Keep this on your watchlist.
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Sodastream International Ltd (NASDAQ: SODA)

SodaStream International Ltd. develops, manufactures, and markets beverage carbonation systems and related products. The company operates in four segments: The Americas; Western Europe; Asia-Pacific; and Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa. It offers soda makers, exchangeable carbon-dioxide cylinders, which enable consumers to easily transform ordinary tap water instantly into carbonated soft drinks and sparkling water; and consumables, such as carbon-dioxide refills, reusable carbonation bottles, and flavors to add to the carbonated water. The company also sells accessories, including bottle cleaning materials and ice cube trays. In addition, it distributes Brita water filtration systems in Israel. The company markets its products under the SodaStream and Soda-Club brand names. It sells its products through individual retail stores and local distributors, as well as directly to customers.
To review Soda’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of SODA (Sodastream International, Ltd.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of SODA (Sodastream International, Ltd.)
SODA has been trending mostly lower for most of the entire year. During the last 5 months though, the stock had held a clear level of support at $35 (blue). Even though the market has caused most stocks to move higher over the last year, SODA had not been able to follow along and has recently broken below $35. This breakdown is not only a new 52-week low, but its also a break of a clearly defined support level.

The Tale of the Tape: SODA has broken a key support level of $35, which was a 52-week low breakdown. This should signal lower prices ahead for the stock. A short trade could be entered on SODA on a rally up to $35, with a stop set above that level. A break back above $35 would negate the forecast for a move lower and a long position could be considered instead.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
9:45 am Chicago PMI June   64.3 65.5
10 am Pending home sales May   -- 0.4%
9:45 am Markit PMI June   -- 57.5
10 am ISM June   55.6% 55.4%
10 am Construction spending May   0.6% 0.2%
TBA Motor vehicle sales June   16.4 mln 16.8 mln
8:15 am ADP employment June   -- 179,000
10 am Factory orders May   -0.4% 0.7%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 6/28
314,000 312,000
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls June
215,000 217,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate June   6.3%  6.3%
8:30 am Trade balance May   -$45.2 bln -$47.2 bln
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing June   56.3% 56.3%
  Independence Day
None scheduled
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Saturday, June 28, 2014

Charles Nenner & Chris Waltzek

Veteran quantitative investor, Charles Nenner of Charles Nenner Research Center uses the skills he honed as a proprietary trader at Goldman Sachs to search for cyclical patterns within market data. His cycles work indicates that a bottom is likely in place for the precious metals sector. His sophisticated neural network models remove human emotion from trading systems, enhancing returns. He’s in the deflation camp, because the herd are positioned for inflation. Nevertheless, gold remains an essential investment choice amid deflationary conditions, since virtually all other asset classes will likely implode. But inflationists will be vindicated, hyperinflation will stage a comeback within 4-5 years. The best examples of what to expect are the precedents set by the financial fiascoes in Cyprus, Greece and the European periphery, where savings and pension accounts were raided without compunction or retribution. He outlines a unique speculative opportunity involving the VIX index, which includes options for risk-takers or an ETF for the risk-averse.
Click Here to Listen
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Gold Cycle Top June 27, Next a Summer Low Buy-Of-A-Lifetime Before $2000 Gold in 2014 — Bo Polny

from Silver Doctors:
On June 4, 2014 Gold made a Cycle bottom, turned up on June 5, 2014, exploded higher June 19 post-FOMC. June 27, 2014, Gold completes its Cycle Turn Date Top with a down Cycle into the summer low STARTING on July 1 – 2, 2014!
This June 2014 rally has been nothing more than a short squeeze & ‘False’ Breakout! After a 3-Year Bear and a Final Summer corrective Low ahead, none but the Resolute Bulls will be left standing to experience a Moon Shot to $2000 by year end! …and ‘year end’ may not exactly mean the end of the year.
Cycle work allowed me to called then Silver $49 top, the $1900 Gold top, the June 28, 2013 Gold BOTTOM within 2-hours, the December 31, 2013 retest and higher low. The coming summer low will be the FINAL ENTRY LOW and the Back-Up-The-Truck ‘Buy-of-a- Lifetime’ before a Moon Shot to $2000 by year end!
Read More @
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Paul Craig Roberts – The Entire U.S. Gold Hoard Is Now Gone

from King World News

Today former US Treasury official, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, told King World News that the entire United States gold hoard, including gold supposedly held at the Fed for other countries, is now gone. This is very bad news for Germany and other countries which have trusted the Fed to safely store their gold. Below is what Dr. Roberts had to say in this remarkable interview.
Eric King: “Dr. Roberts, I know you’ve seen the report on Bloomberg about Germany (all the sudden) supposedly being happy with storing their gold at the New York Fed. It seemed to be a propaganda piece. What was your take when you saw that?”
Continue Reading at…
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Last Time Lenders Did This, They Triggered The Financial Crisis / Wolf  Richter / JUNE 27, 2014 AT 1:25AM
During the first quarter, 3.7 million credit cards were issued to subprime borrowers, up a head-scratching 39% from a year earlier, and the most since 2008. A third of all cards issued were subprime, also the most since 2008, according to Equifax. That was the glorious year when “subprime” transitioned from industry jargon to common word. It had become an essential component of the Financial Crisis.
As before, subprime borrowers pay usurious rates. These are people who think they have no other options, or who have trouble reading the promo details, or who simply don’t care as long as they get the money. In the first quarter, the average rate was 21.1%, up from 20.2% a year ago, while prime borrowers paid an average of 12.9% on their credit cards, and while banks that are lending them the money paid nearly 0%.

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Gold Miners Nearing Strong Monthly & Quarterly Close / By Jordan Roy-Byrne / 27 June 2014
The gold and silver miners have cooled off in recent days after a red-hot start to the summer. Could this cool off be the start of another move lower or a pause before another leg higher? We continue to be bullish and a new reason is the sudden strength in the monthly and even quarterly charts. For larger or developing trends, monthly charts supersede weekly charts, which supersede daily charts. With only two days left, the gold and silver miners are poised to end the month and quarter with their strength intact.
If GDXJ, (shown below) can close June above $41.34 then it will achieve its highest monthly close in 10 months. At the least, GDXJ is set to close at a four month high in monthly terms while engulfing nearly the last three months of trading. Compare that to the monthly advances in July and August of last year and January and February of this year. Those gains were weaker in comparison. Moreover, the strong gains in June are confirmed by the explosion in the volume.

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Central Banks Buying Stocks – The Beginning of a Major Trend?

by Cris Sheridan
Financial Sense

In case you haven’t heard already, another report has been released showing that central banks around the world are becoming new long-term buyers in the stock market.
The findings come after a comprehensive survey of $29.1 trillion worth of investments by 157 central banks, 156 public pension funds and 87 sovereign funds by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF).
Released a couple weeks ago, the report states:
Continue Reading at…
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Steve Todoruk on Prospect Generators – June 2014

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Friday, June 27, 2014 Inc (NASDAQ: SOHU) Inc. provides online media, search, gaming, community, and mobile services in the People’s Republic of China. The company’s brand advertising business offers advertisements on its Websites to companies to enhance brand awareness; and search and others business provides customers pay-for-click and online marketing services. Its online game business develops, operates, and licenses online games and Web games; mobile business offers short messaging services, mobile games and, ring back tones, and interactive voice response to mobile phone users; and others business offers Internet value-added services and licensed video content.
To review Sohu’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of SOHU (, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of SOHU (, Inc.)
After breaking its key support level of $60, SOHU has been trading sideways for the last 2 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $60 (red), which, again, was the prior support. In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $55 (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the sideways consolidation has created.

The Tale of the Tape: SOHU has clear levels of support ($55) and resistance ($60). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $55, or on a breakout above $60. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $55.
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Lowest Put-Call Ratio in 3 Years Suggests Near-Term Caution Is Warranted

  • Recent put-call ratio hit a 3-year low
  • Prior elevated readings preceded the 2010 and 2011 summer corrections
  • Credit markets and current economic data suggest mild correction
Summer is officially here. The kids are out of school and families are beginning to embark on summer vacations. Everyone is in a good mood, particularly investors when looking at equity put-call ratios.
Currently, the 10-day moving average for the CBOE equity put-call ratio rests at 0.50, the lowest reading seen since the spring of 2011 which marked the top before a nasty correction in the summer. When we have seen sentiment this overly bullish over the last five years future returns in the coming months have not been pretty.
Just take a look at the green boxes below which highlight the periods when the ratio has been this low in the past (shown inverted in the chart in red below), which have also corresponded to peaks in the market.  (more)
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Missing China Gold Warns Of Catastrophic Bullion Bank Default / June 26, 2014
On the heels of the news out of China that some shadow bank loans are backed by non-existent gold, today King World News spoke to the man who has been focused on uncovering sensitive government and market information for over 15 years.  What he had to say will surprise KWN readers around the world.  Powell discussed Eric Sprott’s warning and stated that we will eventually see the paper gold Ponzi scheme lead to “bullion bank catastrophes” that will create a short squeeze unlike anything the world has ever seen.  Below is what Chris Powell had to say in this remarkable and timely interview.
Eric King:  “We now have news out of China that some of the shadow banking system loans were backed by non-existent gold.  Over here, Eric Sprott has warned that the West cannot continue to hemorrhage gold out of its vaults indefinitely — that the West will simply run out of gold.”

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Starbucks' SBUX Break Past Key Technical Level Makes It an Immediate 'Buy'

Coffee chain giant Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) has been good to its shareholders. In just five years, the stock ascended around 1,000% in a near vertical fashion into its November 2013 all-time high. But so far in 2014, the going has been choppy, as it has been for the broader stock market.
Recently, though, both the news flow and technical picture have taken on a much more constructive tone, and SBUX looks poised to make a run higher.  (more)

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Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: SRPT)

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of RNA-based therapeutics for the treatment of rare and infectious diseases. Its lead product candidate is Eteplirsen, an antisense PMO-based therapeutic in clinical development for the treatment of individuals with Duchenne muscular dystrophy. The company is also involved in developing treatments that are in clinical development include AVI-7288 for the treatment of Marburg virus and AVI-7100 for the treatment of influenza. In addition, it focuses on developing preclinical research product candidates for the treatment of other neuromuscular, infectious, and rare diseases.
To analyze Sarepta’s stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of SRPT (Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of SRPT (Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc.)
SRPT has been trading between $30 and $35 for almost two months. Those two price levels are not new to the stock. Both $30 and $35 have been prior supports and resistances throughout the last year. SRPT’s next bigger move should be dictated based on which of those two levels break first.

The Tale of the Tape: SRPT is trading between $30 and $35. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to $30 or on a break through $35. Short trades could be made if the stock breaks below $30 or approaches $35 again.
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Thursday, June 26, 2014

6 Stocks With 50 Years Of Consecutive Dividend Raises

Yesterday, I mentioned how bond investors are being ripped off.
More importantly, I made the case that if you're invested in long-term bond funds right now, you could be setting yourself up for double-digit losses in less than a year's time.
So if long-term bond funds are risky, and we are given a pittance in exchange for our hard-earned dollars in short-term bonds, where are income investors to turn?
An investment with a dividend yield over 3% would be nice for starters -- beating the 2.6% yield that the 10-year Treasury currently offers, without locking up your money for the next 10 years.
But why stop with a 3% yield? How about something that would give us an income raise every year, even through market corrections and recessions?  (more)

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Twitter Shares Approach Important Resistance: TWTR

This is a stock that definitely used to get a lot of hype but lately the noise surrounding it has quieted down. We like that. After a 30% rally from last month’s lows, prices are now approaching that key $40 level that had previously served as support twice last November and again in April. On the first day of technical analysis kindergarten we’re taught that former support should turn into resistance. But through experience, I have since learned that if prices break through that potential resistance without much hesitation, an epic rally can develop quickly.
Here is a daily chart of $TWTR since the November IPO. It’s easy to see the former support and what could/should theoretically become overhead supply. My question is, What if it doesn’t?
6-24-14 twtr
What if we blow right through this level? What if the overhead supply right here doesn’t cause much trouble? What if we get a gap higher above this level? What if we pull back a bit and then break through? (most likely outcome in my opinion) <– All of these would be really bullish developments.  (more)
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United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX)

United Technologies Corporation provides technology products and services to the building systems and aerospace industries worldwide. Its Otis segment designs, manufactures, sells, and installs a range of passenger and freight elevators, escalators, and moving walkways; modernization products to upgrade elevators and escalators; and maintenance and repair services. The company’s UTC Climate, Controls, & Security segment provides heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration solutions, such as controls for residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation applications. Its Pratt & Whitney segment supplies aircraft engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation markets, as well as provides fleet management services for commercial engines; spare parts; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services. The company’s UTC Aerospace Systems segment supplies aerospace products, including electric power generation, management and distribution systems, flight control systems, engine control systems, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems, engine components, environmental control systems, etc. Its Sikorsky segment manufactures military and commercial helicopters, as well as provides aftermarket helicopter and aircraft parts and services.
To review United’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of UTX (United Technologies Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of UTX (United Technologies Corporation)
UTX has essentially been trading sideways since March, while forming a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. UTX’s rectangle pattern has formed a $120 resistance (red) and a $112.50 support (blue). A break above $120 would also be a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: UTX is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $112.50, or on a breakout above $120. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $112.50.
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Copper, Aluminum & Gold, Where’d it all go? McAlvany Commentary

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The Paper Silver Market is 250 Times the Size of the Physical Silver Market / By Fabrice Drouin Ristori / June 25, 2014
Bloomberg recently published an article on the discussions taking place concerning the establishment of a new « fix » on the silver price. The old « fix » will end on August 15, 2014, bringing potential consequences that I’ve already analysed.
What is interesting in this Bloomberg article is not so much that discussions have taken place to determine a new way of fixing the price of silver, but rather the information about the scope of the silver market.
The article states that the size of the global annual silver market is equal to $5 trillion.
Bloomberg has always been a reliable source with their published data; thus it is interesting to compare the size of the silver market as announced by Bloomberg with the size of the physical silver market.

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Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Volatility has Completely Dried Up

Note the rising bearish wedge on the Nasdaq indicating we could be close to a point where the current rally stalls.

Volatility has all but dried up. High volatility leads to low volatility and vice versa. We could be getting close to a reversal in volatility.

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Nimble Storage Inc (NYSE: NMBL)

Nimble Storage, Inc. provides flash-optimized hybrid storage platform. The company’s software and storage systems handle various mainstream applications, including virtual desktops, databases, email, collaboration, and analytics. It offers systems that provide adaptive performance for high-input/output and high-capacity mainstream business applications and environments, such as Exchange, Oracle, SharePoint, SQL Server, virtual desktop infrastructure, and server virtualization. The company sells its products through a network of value added resellers and distributors to a range of industries comprising cloud-based service providers, education, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, state and local government, and technology worldwide.
To analyze Nimble’s stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of NMBL (Nimble Storage, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of NMBL (Nimble Storage, Inc.)
NMBL rallied well after its IPO only to fall pretty hard into May. The stock has been moving higher as of late and has recently hit a new recovery high. One level in particular that stands out on the stock is the $30 (blue) mark, which the stock broke back above yesterday.

The Tale of the Tape: NMBL is back above its key level of $30 and should be moving higher. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to that $30 level with a stop placed above that level. A break back below $30 would negate the forecast for a higher move.
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Thoughts on Gold Stocks / By Gary Tanashian / 24 June 2014
After making fools of the gold stock bears the initial thrust off of the right side of the bottoming pattern is making heroes of the bulls, especially those who remained steadfast in their bullishness throughout the bear market. Indeed, there is now some chest thumping going on by Team PermaBull.
The first move has been impressive in bursting upward off of what NFTRH has called ‘the 205 parameter’ (a right side shoulder point of a large Inverted Head & Shoulders). The initial move is maturing amidst the bullish cheer.
We have done extensive work on various time frames and components of the precious metals sector, beyond the weekly view of HUI above. Of particular interest lately has been the silver-gold relationship, and its relevance beyond the insular and highly obsessed upon precious metals sector. There is an entire macro story playing out.
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iStar Financial Inc. (NYSE: STAR)

iStar Financial Inc. operates as a finance and investment company focusing on the commercial real estate industry in the United States. The company provides custom-tailored investment capital to high-end private and corporate owners of real estate; and invests in a range of real estate sectors. The Real Estate Finance segment offers senior and mezzanine real estate loans; preferred equity investments, as well as senior and subordinated loans to corporations; and whole loans and loan participations. The Net Lease segment owns and leases corporate facilities to single creditworthy tenants. As of December 31, 2013, this segment owned 263 facilities comprising 20.4 million square feet in 33 states. The Operating Properties segment operates commercial properties consisting of office, retail, hotel, and other properties; and residential properties, including luxury condominium projects. This segment operated 28 commercial properties comprising 5.5 million square feet in 10 states; and 12 residential projects representing approximately 616 units located in principal cities in the United States. The land segment owns 27 properties, including 11 master planned community projects, 10 infill land parcels, and 6 waterfront land parcels.
To review iStar’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of STAR (iStar Financial, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of STAR (iStar Financial, Inc.)
STAR has been trading sideways for the last 3 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $15 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $14 (black). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the sideways consolidation has created.

The Tale of the Tape: STAR has clear levels of support ($14) and resistance ($15). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $14, or on a breakout above $15. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $14.
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Repeat: Get Your Money Out Of Bond Funds – NOW / Dave Kranzler / 
This article was in Bloomberg News today:
There’s a bigger risk “that when the the Fed starts hiking in earnest, outflows from high-yielding and less-liquid debt will lead to a free fall in prices,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jan Loeys wrote in a June 20 report. “In extremis, this could force a closing of the primary market and have serious economic impact.”
It’s just like I said (video link), BlackRock is leading the charge, there’s a massive derivatives blow-up coming at some point and there will be capital controls placed on bond funds.
Don’t say you have not been warned.   And move your money in to physical gold and silver.
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Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Headwaters Inc (NYSE: HW)

Headwaters Incorporated provides products and services in the light and heavy building materials sectors primarily in the United States and Canada. The company’s Light Building Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells siding and exterior siding accessories, including decorative window shutters, gable vents, mounting blocks for exterior fixtures, roof ventilation, trim board and molding products, specialty siding products, synthetic roofing tiles, and window well systems; professional tools, such as portable cutting and shaping tools; manufactured architectural stone products; and concrete-based masonry products, including standard grey blocks, split and ground faced blocks, and polished and textured blocks. Its Heavy Construction Materials segment markets coal combustion products (CCP), including fly ash that is used as a replacement for Portland cement in various concrete applications, such as infrastructure, commercial, and residential construction; and provides CCP disposal services, as well as services to electric utilities related to the management of CCPs. The company’s Energy Technology segment is involved in the heavy oil upgrading processes, and the liquefaction of coal into liquid fuels.
To review Headwaters’ stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of HW (Headwaters Incorporated) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of HW (Headwaters Incorporated)
HW had been trending higher from October til March, but then sold off into mid-April. Since then the stock has been climbing a trendline of support (blue). The stock has also formed at 52-week high resistance at $14 (red). At some point HW will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: HW has a $14 resistance and an uptrend line of support to watch. A long trade could be made on either a pullback down to the trendline, which currently sits just under $13, or on a break through the $14 resistance. A break below the trendline support should lead to lower prices.
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Wilbur Ross sees bond bubble bursting in next couple of years so does that mean buy gold and silver now? / 23 June 2014 
The bubble currently brewing in sovereign debt will likely burst in the next couple of years, US billionaire Wilbur Ross warned today.
‘I’ve felt for some time that the ultimate bubble, when we look back a few years from now, is going to be sovereign debt, both US and other, because it’s way below any sort of reversion to the mean of interest rates,’ the famous distressed debt investor told CNBC.

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Decline of U.S. Shale Energy & The End Of Precious Metal Manipulation

The Bakken’s decline rate increased from a 63,000 bd in December, 2014 to an estimated 72,000 bd in July, 2014

The U.S. Shale Energy Industry is heading for big trouble and very few Americans realize it.  Not only will the peak and decline of U.S. shale oil and gas production spell disaster for the U.S. economy U.S. economy, it will also be one of the factors responsible for ending precious metals manipulation.
The only way the Fed and Central Banks can continue propping up their fiat currencies is with massive monetary printing and bond purchases.  While this tactic keeps the system together, it does so by adding debt on top of more debt.  This debt can only be settled by a growing economy.
Unfortunately, the world is currently experiencing a plateau in global oil production.  Without continued growth of the world’s oil supply, the massive government debt (which backs the global fiat currencies) becomes a real nightmare.
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Crude Oil – Speculative Frenzy Kicking Off

In going over some of the various COT reports and having a look-see to observe who is doing what, I wanted to make a few comments about the crude oil market, especially in light of one of our astute posters here who pointed out the very large imbalance currently existing in that market ( thanks Jesse L.!).

Take a gander at the COT chart and you will see exactly what he was referring to. This chart goes back Eight Years – to the time that the CFTC began breaking out the Disaggregated Report.

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Voya Financial Inc (NYSE: VOYA)

Voya Financial, Inc. operates as a retirement, investment, and insurance company in the United States. The company has five segments: Retirement, Annuities, Investment Management, Individual Life, and Employee Benefits. The company was formerly known as ING U.S., Inc. and changed its name to Voya Financial, Inc. on April 7, 2014. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Voya Financial, Inc. is a former subsidiary of ING Insurance International B.V.
To review Voya’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of VOYA (Voya Financial, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of VOYA (Voya Financial, Inc.)
VOYA has been trading sideways for the last 7 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a resistance area around $37.50 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a level of support at $33 (green) that was also a resistance back in August. At some point the stock will have to break out of its current consolidation.

The Tale of the Tape: VOYA has levels of support at $33 and resistance at $37.50. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $33, or on a breakout above $37.50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $33.
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Monday, June 23, 2014

Zinc: The Next Base Metals Superstar

Zinc: The Next Base Metals Superstar

This year has already seen the price of one base metal skyrocket higher – nickel. It hit a 27-month peak recently, north of $21,000 per metric ton (mt).
Now Zinc – a base metal that’s been priced low for many years – might be positioned for a sharp price rise.
Why? It’s simple supply/demand at work.
We have demand increasing, thanks to a combination of rapidly rising vehicle sales in emerging economies – along with a resurgence in automobile sales in the developed world.  (more)

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WTI Crude Oil on the Move $112 Next Stop

The energy sector has surged during the last two months which can be seen by looking at the XLE Energy Select Sector Fund. If crude oil continues to climb to the $112 level, XLE will likely continue to rally for another few days or possibly week as energy stocks are considered a leveraged way to play energy price movements.
Another way to look at this info is through the USO United States Oil Fund. This tracks much closer to the price of oil. The only issue is that many ETFs that “try to track” an underlying commodity is in how the funds are built. They own multiple contracts further into the future which does not exactly provide us with the short term news/event driven price movements in the current front month contract as they should.
What does this mumbo jumbo mean? Well, it means funds like USO and the highly respected UNG, and VIX ETFs… (just joking about the highly respected part), fail to track the underlying commodity or index very well when it comes to short term price movements. This means, you can nail the timing of a trade, and the commodity or index will move in your favor, yet your fund loses money, or goes nowhere…

WTI crude oil has formed a bullish ascending triangle pattern from March to May of this year. The breakout to the upside is bullish and should be traded that way until the chart says otherwise. This breakout and first pullback must hold, or I will consider it a failed breakout. So if price dips and closes 2 days below the breakout level, it will be a major negative for oil in my opinion.
The range of the ascending triangle provides us with a measured move to the upside which is $112. Typically the first pullback after a breakout can be bought. The first short term target to scalp some gains would be $109, and at that point moving your stop to breakeven is a wise decision. Trading is all about managing capital and risk, if you don’t, then the market will take advantage of your lack in discipline.
Looking further back on the chart, you can see the double bottom formation also known as a “W” formation. Once the high of the “W” formation is broken the trend should be considered neural or up.
Also note that the RSI (relative strength) has been trending higher for some time now. This means money is rotating into this commodity.

WTI Crude Oil Trading Conclusion:

In short, oil has some extra risk around it. The recent move has been partly fueled by news overseas. So at any time oil could get a lift or take a hit by news that hits the wires. I tent to trade news related events with much less capital than I normally do because of this risk.
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Chart of the Day: NYSE Trading Volume 20 Day M.A..

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Look At This Stock –Energous: WATT

WATT IPO’d in late March and after an initial run up it’s essentially been basing for the last 8 weeks. Today it is starting to move higher and if it can clear this base (and close above it) it could be a short trip back to recent highs. Keep this stock on your radar however be aware that it is a lower traded volume stock.
If it can keep the momentum going with the RSI and make it above 70 then the chances that this move is for real increases in my opinion.
Per Yahoo – “Energous Corporation, a development stage technology company, is engaged in developing wireless charging solutions. Its solutions could enable wireless charging or powering of electronic devices at distance. “
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index May   -- 0.19
9:45 am Markit flash PMI June   -- 56.4
10 am Existing home sales May   4.75 mln 4.65 mln
9 am Case-Shiller home prices April   -- 12.4%
9 am FHFA home prices April   -- 6.5%
10 am Consumer confidence index June   83.5 83.0
10 am New home sales May   443,000 433,000
8:30 am GDP revision 1Q   -2.0% -1.0%
8:30 am Durable goods orders May   -0.4% 0.6%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 6/21
312,000 312,000
8:30 am Personal income May
0.4% 0.3%
8:30 am Consumer spending May   0.4% -0.1%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment index June   81.8 81.2
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Saturday, June 21, 2014

GDXJ Signals that MAJOR BREAKOUT and STRONG PM SECTOR ADVANCE IMMINENT… / By Clive Maund / June 16th, 2014 
Most investors or would-be investors in Precious Metals stocks are so soured by the seemingly interminable bearmarket in the sector, that has gone on for 3 years now and been made even worse by its having unfolded against the background of a rising stock market, that they won’t see the major opportunity now being presented, even when it’s as plain as the nose on your face, which it is. This is a bit sad really, because huge profits look set to be reaped by those buying the sector now.
The charts below make it crystal clear that we are on the verge of a major bullmarket advance across the PM sector. While these charts are for the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF, GDXJ – what happens to this has major implications for the whole sector, for the simple reason that this is not going up without the entire sector going up too.
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Why The Next 20 Years Will Be Completely Unlike The Last 20

We're facing a future in which the economic growth the world has enjoyed over the past century can no longer continue.
Over-indebtedness, mal-investment, cronyism, manipulation, and misguided policymaking have all certainly contributed to our current predicament. But the principal causes are much bigger. And much harder to address.
Simply put, we're entering an era when it's becoming increasingly difficult to obtain the resources we need -- at the cost we need -- to power the economic activity we need.
The trends of resource depletion, escalating mining & drilling costs, species die-offs, emptying aquifers, declining energy yields and the like are increasingly pitting the world's 7 billion people (soon to be 9 billion before 2050) against each other in competition for the remaining biomass and minerals that make industry possible.
As a result, massive changes to our way of life are in store. No matter where each of us lives.
This brand-new video shines a bright light on these trends and the risks we face as a result. But it also offers hope. If we take action now, while there's still time, there's much we can do not only to reduce our personal vulnerability to these threats, but also to step into this new future with newfound optimism:
For the best viewing experience, watch the below video in hi-definition (HD) and in expanded screen mode

The above video is a condensation of the 4.5-hour long full Crash Course video series. The data and analysis underlying the material represent over a decade of intensive research and study. Over that decade, its forecasts have proved increasingly validated by events like the collapse of the housing bubble in 2007, the 2008 credit crisis and the anemic 'recovery' since, oil prices persistently over $100 per barrel, the five-fold rise in gold prices, and many other symptoms of an unsustainable world economy reaching its failure point. Sadly, the risks warned of in this video are very real, and they are arriving now.
Once you've finished watching the video, please share it with those whom you think would most benefit from it. The more people we wake up to its message, the more hands we'll have supporting us today in planning for tomorrow.
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U.S. Govt to PLUNDER Citizens During COLLAPSE

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Massive Central Bank Buying To Crush Gold Shorts: Andrew Maguire

from King World News
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that massive central bank buying is going to crush the shorts in the gold market. Maguire described unimaginably high physical demand from both central banks and sovereigns and also discussed where buy-stops will trigger a major move in gold. Below is what London metals trader Andrew Maguire had to say in Part I of a series of interviews that will be released on KWN.
Maguire: “The patient central banks and sovereign size buyers have been able to absorb as many tons of discounted physical (gold) as they were able to into the sell-downs of the June and December 2013 lows. This central bank buying activity was backed up by daily wholesaler feedback (I was receiving), and flies under the radar for everyone except the well-connected bullion banks who are close to the physical market….
Continue Reading at…
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Interest Rates Are Setting Up for a Surprise Move

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement didn't surprise anyone Wednesday.
At the end of its two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve said the same thing it has been saying all year: The economy is improving, but not too fast. Inflation is under control. The Fed will continue to taper its bond-purchasing program (a form of quantitative easing meant to keep interest rates low). But it will also keep its target for interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
But interest rates may give us one anyway...
Take a look at this chart of the 30-year Treasury bond yield...
Interest rates have been falling all year. The 30-year Treasury yield kicked off 2014 at 3.95%. It dropped to as low as 3.3% three weeks ago.
With the FOMC tapering its bond-purchasing program, most analysts expected interest rates would rise. Instead, we got the opposite.
The fall in yields wasn't a straight shot lower. It was a stair-step decline of lower lows and lower highs. Today, interest rates are all the way back down to where they were last June – before the Fed even talked about tapering.
Today, it seems most analysts are expecting rates to continue even lower or at least remain at their current depressed levels. They argue the tapering program is going smoothly. Growth in the economy is slow and steady. And the Fed has everything under control.
Rates started moving higher three weeks ago. This time, the 30-year Treasury yield did not form a lower high. It rallied above the blue down-trending resistance line and gave the first signal that interest rates may be ready to start trending higher.
Rates have trended lower over the past week, and the yield is now retesting its former resistance line as support. If rates hold up here and start to bounce, we'll have the first set of higher highs and higher lows. That will likely indicate the start of a new uptrend for interest rates.
In short, despite what analysts say, interest rates look poised to rally.
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Friday, June 20, 2014

Legend Warns Of World Economic Crash & Oil Spike To $250 / June 19, 2014
Today a legendary trader and investor warned King World News that the world is in danger of seeing the oil price soar to $250.  He also warned this will crash the world economy and collapse confidence in the financial system and currencies.  Victor Sperandeo has been in the business 45 years, and has worked with famous individuals such as Leon Cooperman and George Soros.  Another legend, hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, said, “Victor Sperandeo is gifted with one of the finest minds I know.  No wonder he’s compiled such an amazing record of success as a money manager.” Below are the dire warnings issued by Sperandeo.
Continue reading the Victor Sperandeo interview below…
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Rare Earth Metals Staging a Comeback?

The market for rare earth metals represents the ultimate paradox.
Rocketing prices a few years ago sent manufacturers scrambling for lower-cost alternatives, causing the bottom to fall out of virtually every rare earth mining stock.
The weakest junior miners were forced to shutter their doors.
But a 60% spike in praseodymium prices is a surefire signal that demand is back.
Hold your applause, though…(more)

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Trimble Navigation Limited (NASDAQ: TRMB)

Trimble Navigation Limited designs and distributes positioning products and applications enabled by global positioning system (GPS), optical, laser, and wireless communications technology. It serves agriculture, architecture, civil engineering, construction, environmental management, government, natural resources, transportation, and utilities industries through dealers, distributors, and authorized representatives worldwide. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
To review Trimble’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TRMB (Trimble Navigation Limited) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TRMB (Trimble Navigation Limited)
Since August of last year TRMB has grinded its way higher. Over the last 3 months though, the stock has formed a key level of resistance at $40 (red). That resistance is also a 52-week high resistance. After a sharp drop back in May, the stock appears to be headed back up towards its $40 resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: TRMB has a $40, 52-week high resistance level to watch. A long trade could be made on a break above that $40 with a stop placed below it.
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Amazon AMZN Buy Sell or Hold?

With the recent announcement of Amazon’s new phone, shares initially surged but then retraced all the gains today.
Let’s step above the noise and chart a bullish breakout pathway but also balance this expectation with the broader downtrend and potential breakdown bearish price pathway.
We’ll plan trading strategies based on the current price levels and targets.
AMZN Amazon Weekly Chart Price Pathway and Trade Planning
Starting with the Weekly Chart, we can see the broader price pathway depending on what happens at the current level.
Shares retraced in an “ABC” retracement down from the $400 per share level and now challenge the underside of the 20 and 50 week EMA confluence near the $330.00 per share level.
The current two candles are bearish reversal candles – like shooting stars – with upper shadows scraping against $340.00 per share.
We also saw distribution volume – or strong sell volume – during the 2014 multi-month retracement.
The weekly chart suggests a potential downside pathway away from $340 toward the $300 or even $290 levels.
Before we expect downside action, let’s study bull and bear price pathways as seen on the Daily Chart:

The “Neutral Zone” or focal point is the yellow highlight between the $320 and $335/$340 levels.
We would look to deploy bearish strategies (in alignment with the weekly chart) on a trigger-break under the $320 trendline and 20/50 day EMA support level – a breakdown here would simply target $300 per share then the $290 level.
Otherwise, a trend reversal and bullish breakout price pathway quickly opens above the $340 and $345 per share.
Any clean bullish upside break suggests shares will travel the bullish pathway through “Open Air” toward the prior high from March near $380 per share.
For now, focus on the yellow “neutral” range and be eager to deploy bullish breakout strategies above $345 or else bearish protective strategies under $320.
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Steel Market About To Rally

A few days ago I talked about how commodities tend to perform well near the end of a bull market in the United States stock market. I also pointed out which hot index was going to benefit from this.

In this article I want to bring your attention to the steel market. Using the SLX Steel ETF you can clearly see the bottoming pattern and basing pattern for this commodity.
Currently steel is underperforming the stock market and is vulnerable to lower prices. But if we see a few things come together in the coming days or weeks, this could be a screaming buy.

My technical take on steel is this:

SLX has formed a bottoming pattern from January – mid March. It has since put in a strong impulse rally to make a higher high, and is now consolidating above key support. The RSI (Relative Strength) remains in a down trend, but if this starts to rise and SLX breaks above its recent highs around the $47.75 level I feel steel will start to rally with $50 being the next major whole number and previous high for steel to find some resistance.
Also price has been riding along the 200 day moving average which is acting as support. If price closes a couple of days below the 200 moving average I would consider this to be a bearish sign.

Steel Trading Conclusion:

In short, we are looking for the relative strength to start making new highs. Also we want to see a reversal bar on the SLX chart to the upside which we got on Tuesday. Or you can wait for a breakout and close above $47-48 area. Stop would be somewhere around the $45.75 area to start, then raise it as price rallies using intraday pivot lows on the 30 minute chart.
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Thursday, June 19, 2014

Get Ready For The Precious Metals And Miner Breakout

from Financial Survival Network
Chris Vermeulen, a.k.a. The Gold and Oil Guy, is convinced that the precious metals correction has nearly run its course. He sees the smart money starting to pour into the mining stocks. The base is nearly complete and prices should start going up shortly.
He’s also upbeat on commodities and sees plenty of upside there. He’s wary of energy and believes it could go way higher or crash, time will tell.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Solar Energy Sector ETF TAN Breaking Out – How to Trade It

During the past couple months several indexes, sectors and commodities have sold off more than 10 – 20%. But now some are looking like new buying opportunities. Over the next week I will bring a few of these trades to your attention as they start to unfold.
Today we are looking at the TAN solar ETF. This sector recently had a 23% hair cut in price. A 20-25% correction in price is a typical intermediate correction for a fast moving sector. The price correction has pulled the sector down to its 150 and 200 simple day moving averages. These levels tend to act as long term support for investors, a buying point.
Many of the individual stocks within this sector are starting to pop and breakout of bullish price patterns. These individual stock prices point to higher prices for TAN going forward.
Be aware of crude oil…. I do think that as long as the price of crude oil stays up solar stocks will continue to rise overall. But if oil starts to roll over and break down, TAN will struggle.
My Technical Take on The Chart:
Big picture analysis shows a powerful uptrend with bullish consolidation.
Intermediate analysis shows a falling bullish wedge, test of moving averages, and a reversal breakout pattern.
tanShort term analysis shows we are at a resistance level and we will likely see a pause of pullback over the next few days before it goes higher.
TANshorttermTAN Trading Conclusion:
If price closed back below the $39.00 I would consider this bounce/rally failed.
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CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) : Tech Bargain Could Soar 40%

When CommVault Systems (NASDAQ: CVLT) was founded roughly 25 years ago, corporations were only beginning to grasp just how hard it would become to manage far-flung internal networks. CommVault initially had modest hopes of delivering a few key software tools, on a platform known as Simpana, that could help IT managers archive, search and restore key corporate databases.
We now know that such networks have become remarkably large and complex as the era of cloud computing takes root. And such complexity has paid off for CommVault in the form of rising demand.   (more)

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Wyndham Worldwide Corporation (NYSE: WYN)

Wyndham Worldwide Corporation provides various hospitality services and products to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Lodging, Vacation Exchange and Rentals, and Vacation Ownership. The company offers its hospitality services and products under the Wyndham Hotels and Resorts, Ramada, Days Inn, Super 8, Howard Johnson, Wingate by Wyndham, Microtel Inns & Suites, Tryp by Wyndham, RCI, The Registry Collection, Landal GreenParks, Novasol, Hoseasons, cottages4you, James Villa Holidays, Wyndham Vacation Rentals, Wyndham Vacation Resorts, Shell Vacations Club, and WorldMark by Wyndham brand names. Wyndham Worldwide Corporation is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
To review Wyndham’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of WYN (Wyndham Worldwide Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of WYN (Wyndham Worldwide Corporation)
Since the beginning of the year WYN has essentially been trading sideways while forming a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. WYN’s rectangle pattern has formed a $75 resistance (blue) and a $70 support (green). A break above $75 would also be a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: WYN is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $70, or on a breakout above $75. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $70.
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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Historic Breakout Will Launch The Price Of Silver To $65 / June 17, 2014
Today KWN is putting out a special piece which features a chart showing a historic breakout in the price of silver.  This is the type of chart that the big banks follow closely, as well as big money and savvy professionals.  David P. out of Europe sent us the astonishing silver chart that all KWN readers around the world need to see.
Below is the extraordinary silver chart sent to KWN by David P. out of Europe along with his commentary.
“Silver has just experienced a historic breakout.  If you look at the 7-year chart below it shows it shows a trendline which traces back to the the $50 high on silver in 2011, to this historic breakout.  This may usher in the long awaited bullish move which will take silver to new all-time highs.
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My No. 1 Gold Play: Franco Nevada FNV

The best way to buy into gold isn’t through the miners. It’s through the royalty companies.
Royalty companies make money by buying chunks of the production from the miners, and then getting paid royalties for their investment in the project.
They don’t own the mines, which means they hold zero obligations for the cost of operations, labor, etc.
And today, I’ll reveal my favorite royalty company…(more)

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Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTEN)

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. provides onshore contract drilling services to major and independent oil and natural gas operators in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Contract Drilling, Pressure Pumping, and Oil and Natural Gas. The Contract Drilling segment markets its contract drilling services primarily in Texas, New Mexico, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Alaska, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, and western and northern Canada. The Pressure Pumping segment offers pressure pumping services that consist of well stimulation and cementing for the completion of new wells and remedial work on existing wells, as well as hydraulic and nitrogen fracturing, cementing, and acid pumping services in Texas and the Appalachian region. The Oil and Natural Gas segment owns and invests in oil and natural gas assets as a non-operating working interest owner located principally in Texas and New Mexico.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of PTEN (Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of PTEN (Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc)
PTEN has rallied nicely all the year. Along the way, the stock has found support and resistance areas primarily at the levels of $26, $28, $30, $32 (red) and $34 (blue). Each of those prices has been either support or resistance, or even both, multiple times. The stock is now trading just under the 52-week high resistance level of $34.

The Tale of the Tape: PTEN is currently trading between $32 and $34. A long trade could be made on a pullback to $32, or even better, on a break above $34. A short trade could be made on a break below $32.
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