In 2010 and through the midway point of 2011,
Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was one of the best stocks to own. The
shares surged an incredible 450% from January 2010 through their peak in July 2011.
I
remember at one point during that time, my gardener asked me if he
should buy Netflix shares. That was the first sign that the stock was in
for some pain down the road, because in this game, when the "man on the
street" is raving about a stock, you know it's time for the smart money
to bank profits and head for the exits.
In Netflix's case, it was really painful, as a series of
earnings disappointments, analyst downgrades,
business model
changes and the Qwikster debacle kept a flood of agony raining down
upon the shares from the middle of 2011 until just about a week ago.
Slowing
profits, programming misses, original content gambles and, of course,
BIG competitive headwinds from the likes of Amazon.com (NASDAQ:
AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL) and even Coinstar's (NASDAQ:
CSTR)
Redbox DVD rental outlet, all could end up sinking NFLX in the years to
come. Yet even if you agree with this thesis on principle, as I am
inclined to do, there's no denying the incredibly
bullish trading action in the shares of late.
During
the past week, NFLX shares have surged nearly 20%. The big buying in
the stock in just the past few trading sessions has sent it vaulting
well beyond its
50-day moving average of $59.05. Still, the shares have a long way to go before coming close to their
200-day moving average at $83.50, but as the old adage says, a journey of thousand miles begins with a single step.
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