Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Dollar Bears – Look Out – It’s Buy Time!

IBJYTrading 2012-m
Quite a few readers have asked:
“You must be advising Japan again. China is too obvious. You say don’t buy bonds from NY and 2 weeks later they stop. Looks like Japan is following you again.”
We just cannot comment on who is a client or not. As for the trend, yes. The dollar bottomed precisely against the yen after 51.6 months. On the 23 year target two Monthly Bullish Reversals were elected in December. The breakout was right on schedule – 23 years to the month (12/1989 to 12/2012).
Yes, the Japanese government is now talking up the markets and they will publicly be given the credit for the turn. The wind has changed so they are no longer “pissing in the wind” so to speak. There is a lot more going on behind the scenes. (more)
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From Homeless Teen To Retired Millionaire In 9 Easy Steps

from FinancialSurvivalNet
At 15 years old, Aimee Elizabeth‘s alcoholic mother threw her out of the house. Aimee had a choice, give up and live on the streets or take control of her life and make things happen. Fortunately she chose the latter. Now it’s several decades later and Aimee has started a series of companies that have all been successful. She’s got a proven system that can help you retire in record time and she’s also a bestselling author. How great is that? She never lost faith in herself and you should never lose faith in yourself. In the end, it’s all we have.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Financial Astrology: New Trend In Solar

Today we had a very bullish move in my two solar sector stocks, First Solar Inc. (FSLR) and SunPower Corp.  SunPower ended the day up over 18%.  I was expecting to see a move in the solar sector this week as Saturn in Scorpio moving to trine the U.S. natal Sun later this Fall, is the business of solar.   This rare transit has the potential to reignite the solar industry and produce substantial gains in leading stocks for years to come.  The trend is most likely starting now and we could see continued strength in February.  Watch for news and another bullish move for FSLR and SPWR February 14th.

 Today’s move!
This section is from January 6th update:
FSLR (First Solar Inc.)
First Solar is the leader of this solar six pack with sales of $2950 million.  As I mentioned two weeks ago the North Node passing over the IPO Sun (solar) could be signaling a trend change for the company.  Watch for a pullback next week and we are revising the entry point to $32.23-$32.69.  Fridays pullback was not quite enough to warrant a trade alert so we will be watching closely this next week.  January 14th could see this entire sector higher.  Mid February could also bring a bullish move.

SPWR (SunPower Corp.)
The 47.96% bullish move on January 3rd was on news that Berkshire Hathaway acquired SunPower’s Antelope Projects.  The acquisition gives Berkshire two plants in California that will create the world’s largest permitted photovoltaic development.  The news came while the North Node was in the degree of the Sun (solar) for both the IPO and incorporation chart.  Saturn will sextile Venus (IPO chart) on January 15th which may produce another bullish move and suggests the business is getting noticed and could be negotiating contracts.  Pluto will make a grand trine to Venus and Mars (IPO chart) in February that could produce another very bullish move.    Consider scaling in near Jeff’s first target at $8.25 and add on pullbacks.

This section is from Feb. 10th update
FSLR (First Solar Inc.)
First Solar has moved off of support near $28 and closed on Friday at $30.40.  We could see a continued move higher from Jeff’s second entry near $29.41.  There could be growth coming in the solar sector as Citigroup indicated last week.  We may see a bullish move next week.  Continue to hold.
SPWR (SunPower Corp.)
The reversal on Friday may have been to shake out some traders as the stock fell and then bounced off of support.  The technicals have not been violated and the bullish breakout from the first week of January remains intact.  The stock looks to be consolidating.  We could see another bullish move in February.
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Peabody Energy Corporation (NYSE: BTU)

Peabody Energy Corporation engages in the mining of coal. It mines, prepares, and sells thermal coal to electric utilities and metallurgical coal to industrial customers. The company owns interests in 30 coal-mining operations located in the United States and Australia, as well as owns joint venture interest in a Venezuela mine. It is also involved in marketing, brokering, and trading coal. In addition, the company develops a mine-mouth coal-fueled generating plant; and Btu Conversion projects that are designed to convert coal to natural gas or transportation fuels; and clean coal technologies. As of December 31, 2011, it had 9 billion tons of proven and probable coal reserves. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.
To review Peabody's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) BTU created a couple of short-term price levels over the last (3) months. First, the stock formed a clear support level at $24 (red). In addition, the stock had also formed a down trending resistance level (blue). These two levels combined had the stock stuck within a common chart pattern known as a descending triangle that would eventually have to break one way or another. Well, last week the stock finally broke the support and should be moving lower overall from here.
The Tale of the Tape: BTU broke out of the bottom of a descending triangle. A short trade could be made on BTU on any rallies back up to the $24 area.
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Why America Should Default and You Should Live Abroad: Q&A with Doug Casey

from ReasonTV :
“I recommend defaulting on the debt for several reasons,” explains New York Times’ best-selling author, investment strategist, and libertarian commentator Doug Casey. “Perhaps the best one is that I don’t think it’s correct to make the next several generations of Americans indentured servants”
His new book, Totally Incorrect, is a collection of conversations with Louis James that explore the ways in which government policy and centralized power threaten cultural and economic progress. In a series of engaging and wide-ranging dialogues, Casey and James talk about everything from the Great Depression to drug use to the Roman Empire.
Reason TV’s Nick Gillespie sat down with Casey to discuss why America should default on its debt, why he spends most of his time in Argentina these days, and the importance of self-reliance and free-market principles.

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4 Reasons Mortgage Rates are Moving Higher in the Face of QE3

It’s interesting to note that mortgage rates have actually moved higher since QE3 began.  That’s not surprising since the economic data appears to have improved and the risk on rally has continued, but Sober Look has some more thoughts on the rise in rates:
There are a number of reasons for the sell-off and the recent (mild) rise in the 30y conventional mortgage rates:
1. Dealers have built up a massive inventory of this paper, making it a bit more vulnerable to a correction.
2. Treasuries have sold off materially since early December (about 35bp yield increase on the 10y note), dragging MBS with them.
3. Some institutional investors are preparing for the Fed’s eventual exit by unwinding their MBS holdings.
Reuters: – The PIMCO Total Return Fund, the world’s largest bond fund run by Bill Gross, decreased its mortgage holdings to its lowest level since mid-2011, ahead of the prospect of higher interest rates and emerging inflationary pressures.
4. The Fed’s purchases have been increasingly focused away from the 30yr FNMA, which they probably view as overpriced, and more on the GNMA and the shorter maturity FNMA (such as 15yr) bonds.
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James Turk – Last Piece Now In Place To Trigger Hyperinflation

from King World News
Today James Turk spoke with King World News about the smash in gold and silver yesterday, and what to expect going forward. Here is what Turk had to say about the action: “The precious metals took it on the chin yesterday, Eric. But how many times have we seen this happen, only for the metals to bounce right back? In fact, the last time this happened was also a Monday, just two weeks ago. With yesterday’s drop, gold and silver are simply re-testing support formed two weeks ago at $1650 on gold and near $31 on silver.”
Continue Reading at…

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NII Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: NIHD)

NII Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides wireless communication services under the Nextel brand name to businesses and individuals in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Chile. Its services include mobile telephone service; Nextel Direct Connect service, which allows subscribers to talk to each other on a push-to-talk basis for private one-to-one calls or on group calls. The company also provides value-added services, including text messaging services; mobile Internet services; e-mail services; location-based services, such as the use of global positioning system technologies; digital media services; and a set of applications available via its content management system and the Android open application market. In addition, it offers business solutions, such as security, work force management, logistics support, and other applications to improve productivity; and international roaming services. NII Holdings, Inc. sells its products and services through direct sales representatives, indirect sales agents, retail stores, kiosks, and Website.
To analyze NII's stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of NIHD (NII Holdings, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of NIHD (NII Holdings, Inc.) NIHD has been trading sideways for the last (6) months, and over that period of time $6 (blue) has commonly been an area of support. Yesterday the stock broke below that $6 support and should be on its way back down to the lower level of support at $5 (red).
The Tale of the Tape: NIHD has broken below $6 again. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up to $6 with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $6 would be an opportunity to go long on the stock.
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