Thursday, October 31, 2013

Jim Sinclair: Gold Will be $50,000 per Ounce, Gold Confiscation, Dollar Gets Hammered and More

According to Jim Sinclair of, by 2016, "Gold will be $3,200 to $3,500 an ounce." By 2020,
Sinclair predicts, "Emancipated gold will be $50,000 per ounce." As far as gold confiscation goes, Sinclair says that Its not going to happen, but a windfall tax could definitely be in the cards. Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with renowned gold expert Jim Sinclair.
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Toll Brothers Inc (NYSE: TOL)

Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, and arranges finance for detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities. It is also involved in building or converting existing rental apartment buildings into high-, mid-, and low-rise luxury homes. In addition, the company, through joint ventures, is developing a high-rise luxury condominium/hotel project and a for-rent luxury apartment complex. Further, it owns, develops, and operates golf courses and country clubs associated with various planned communities. The company serves move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, age-qualified, and second-home buyers in 19 states in the United States. Toll Brothers, Inc. was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Horsham, Pennsylvania.
To review Toll's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) TOL has been trading mostly sideways for the last 5 months. Over that period of time, the stock has formed an obvious resistance level at $35 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $30 (red) that has held ever since mid-August, for the most part. At some point the stock will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: TOL has identifiable levels of support and resistance. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $30, or on a breakout above $35. The ideal short opportunities would be on a break below $30 or on a rally up to $35.
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Kyle Bass: The Fed Has Made “Stocks Only Game In Town” So The “Rich Will Get Richer”

Having previously exposed the world to the “nominal stock market cheerleaders,” it is clear that Kyle Bass sees things as only having got worse among developed nations. In fact, the following interview shows that he does not fear US losing its credibility since “developed western economies with the largest debt loads are all in the same boat.” The discussion expands from the debt ceiling debacle to bonds and stocks, “given the lack of nominal yield in the bond market, all of the new money is going to continue into stocks. The interesting thing is it’s going to make the rich people richer and the middle and lower class won’t be any better off, which is the opposite of what the administration is trying to pull off,” adding that being in stocks “is not your choice,” thanks to Fed repression and that deficit contraction is all that can stop the Fed now.
As Bass warned previously,
he caveats that nominally bullish statement with a critical point, “Zimbabwe’s stock market was the best performer this decade – but your entire portfolio now buys you 3 eggs” as purchasing power is crushed. Investors, he says, are “too focused on nominal prices” as the rate of growth of the monetary base is destroying true wealth.  (more)
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Bill King: “Buy Real Things”

About this week’s show:
-Fed is causing deflation by killing income
-Tapering is now off the table
-Real assets provide quiet wealth
About the guest: Market Strategist, Bill King, has authored “The King Report” for over 18 years. It is an independent view on global, political, financial, and economic factors that influence world markets. As author of the firm’s daily market commentary, Bill’s candid observations and forecast on the economic, financial, and political forces that are impacting the markets have been extremely accurate.

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China Is Preparing To Declare Financial War Against The US / October 30, 2013
Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb stunned King World News when he warned that the Chinese were preparing to declare financial “war” against the United States.  Leeb also discussed the frightening implications of this for the United States as well as other Western nations in this powerful interview.
Leeb:  “People don’t completely understand this because the stock market is on the move, but the reality is that  the US is in a great deal of danger.  There is a ‘black swan’ out there than could very easily destroy the US dollar and collapse the United States….
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Some Very Interesting Charts

The first one is the current decade breakout in $SPX compared to the one in 1980. As excited as many people get about this breakout, notice how one more pullback was needed before the eventual 1982 low in the market:
10-30-13 spx 60s and today
The next one shows the Small-cap Russell2000 vs the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking out of a monster base. Isn’t this beautiful?
10-30-13 iwm vs dow
We’ve all heard about how great healthcare has done this year, and more specifically biotechnology. Jonathan took this a step further and plotted the Top 15 names in the S&P Healthcare Index minus the biotech names. Look at the difference in the two charts. I think there’s a mean reversion play here:
 10-30-13 biotech
Everyone I speak to these days is bullish Japanese stocks. Do you know anyone who isn’t? It’s almost an insult to someone if I come up with a counter-argument. Well, here is a chart of the Nikkei running into a mufti-decade downtrend line, as well as the exact measured move from the 5500 point consolidation before last year’s monster breakout:
10-30-13 nikkei
And while we’re on the Japan topic, here is the highly correlated Dollar/Yen cross. And like the Nikkei, we’re looking at a mufti-decade downtrend line as well as horizontal resistance:
10-30-13 usdjpy
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