Thursday, February 28, 2013


The US Treasury Bond market is the longest unbroken bull market known to the financial world. For more than 30 years it has trended higher in nominal US dollar terms.
Of course, it has been helped greatly by price fixed and market fixed, Ben Bernanke, who has now bought up more Treasuries, by far, than any other identifiable group, but didn’t pay for them out of production; he just did it with the pressing of a button, using a pretty fat finger!
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Class Divide: UK masses slide into poverty as austerity ramps up

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Looking At The Other Metals

By Jeff Pierce
I believe Silver will hold up much better than Gold and until it makes a new multi-year low I have to believe those will hold. I will do some further analysis if that scenario plays out.
Copper is in a multi yr range and is near the apex of a giant symmetrical wedge. RSI is right near 50 (no edge). The long term trend remains up so definitely give the edge to the bulls here, but I don’t see any good trade in this commodity at this time.

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The Value Guys : Val’s Personal Stock Screen Edition

Two Veteran Wall Street analysts have taken on secret identities in order to freely provide a few candid stock ideas each week. As veterans of well known Wall Street firms, you have seen them quoted in the press and their faces on TV, but their employers would never allow their unvarnished views on the air, so we’ve electronically altered their voices so they’ll never know! Listen to The Value Guys! offer an ‘after-hours’ view of a few favorite stock ideas. Warning: This show is for Entertainment Purposes Only! Copyright 2012 The Value Guys, LLC
Listen to the Value Guys! discuss: AVAV, LOGI, SO
 Click Here to Listen to the Podcast

Cirrus Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRUS)

Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company, develops signal processing integrated circuits (ICs) for audio and energy markets. The company's audio products include amplifiers, codecs, converters, and audio DSPs for applications, such as smartphones, tablets, home theater equipment, automotive entertainment systems, and professional audio gear. It also provides controllers for LED lighting products, as well as high-precision analog and mixed-signal products for energy measurement and energy exploration applications. The company sells its products through direct sales force, external sales representatives, and distributors. Cirrus Logic, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Before discussing potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) During the entire year CRUS has shown $25 to be a key level to the stock, specifically as support (green) since the end of April. CRUS has been steadily moving lower since September even though the overall market has been moving higher. Earlier this week the stock broke that $25 support, which shouldn't be a surprise considering the recent trend lower.
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Markets at Inflection Point

About This Week’s Show:
-Gold Turning
-Equities potentially burning
-Bond investors still yearning

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This Is How You Can Make A Fortune In Gold Right Now

from King World News
Today one of the wealthiest people in the financial world spoke with King World News about how people can invest to make fortunes right now in the gold and silver markets. He stated, “… in 1996 I paid more in capital gains tax than my net worth was in 1992.” This interview is about how to make the big money when others are panicking.
Here is what Rick Rule, who is the CEO of Sprott USA, had to say about creating great wealth: “I’m a contrarian. It’s interesting with regards to physical assets how people shop sales, and with regards to financial assets they prefer it when goods are overpriced. It’s an interesting contradiction, and of course very, very good for me. Goods are on sale and I’m loving it.”
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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Gold – Silver – Hyperinflation

It is vital to understand that what we face is by no means the plain vanilla version of governments just printing into hyperinflation. These people are fighting back as is ALWAYS the case with core and major economies. The German hyperinflation took place AFTER a revolution with a unstable government that lacked credit. When there is “credit” then government FIRST tries to keep the game afoot and that means the bankers threaten they will collapse unless debt is serviced. This is why the FIRST response is all out financial war against the people.

Literally, you will PRAY for only hyperinflation. Society CAN survive that. It cannot and has NEVER survived an all out Sovereign Debt Crisis. I hope to have a book out this year on this subject covering NOT my OPINION, but uncovering every event and how do empires, nations, and city states die. There is just too much bullshit out there. There is a danger that unless we turn back, we could end up in World War III and a new Dark Age. One reader wrote:

Am following your reasoning about hyperinflation etc and very illuminating it is. I can appreciate deflation overwhelming printing and forcing the USD higher — in which case tangible asset protection becomes a chimera? As you also say the USD will be the last to plummet during a bond collapse ( inflationary?) so then tangibles rise? Separately you said earlier that any gold held had better be in coin form,I believe you were talking in the context of the underground economy. Ditto Silver coins? Am an avid daily reader of the blog and greatly indebted to you for throwing light over the darkening scene.

The USD will rise FIRST because the Sovereign Debt Crisis emerges on the peripheral of the core economy. Today that is Europe and Japan. I had a front row seat with the Euro since the commission came to us and attended our London conference taking the whole back row. As Europe and Japan implode, capital rushes from one currency to the next and that pushes the dollar higher. As the dollar soars, currency wars and trade wars always follows. The rise in the dollar will reverse the trend on the debt and it will appreciate in “real terms”. When I met with the US Treasury back during the Reagan Administration to argue against the rate hikes of Volcker, using that simple pocket calculator the debt would jump 800% by the end of the decade of the ’80s. I was told point-blank, it was ok because they would be paying back with cheaper dollars. (more)

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"Euro Crisis Will Return Shortly And With A Vengeance"

For all the groundless, starry-eyed optimism permeating Europe's bureaucratic corridors of the fading oligarchy these days (because this time is not like every other time that, too, was different), there has always existed one sure, never-fail antidote: Germany, which without fail has managed to ground Europe any time its delusion of grandure hit escape velocity. Sure enough, while all the statist soothsayers who threatened with armageddon if the outcome of the Italian elections happened to be precisely the one that transpired, were stuck in backpedal mode, and scrambling to calm nerves that all shall be well after all, one person who refuses to play by the script is Lars Feld, member of panel of economic advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung tomorrow says the euro crisis is to return shortly and "with a vengeance" as capital loss will lead to higher risk premiums for Italy’s interest rates.
From Handelsblatt, previewing the FAZ Wednesday edition:
The Italian economy would not find their way out of the recession, according to the pessimistic assessment by Lars Feld: "The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance."

Apparently, the Italians were not ready to move on the path of reform that has been taken by Mr. Mario Monti, Field said.

"You can not expect that Italy's European partners or the ECB will stabilize the Italian economy, when its people are not ready for reform."
And making sure Feld is not alone, he was joined by Anton Boerner, head of Germany’s BGA exporters’ association, who in turn said Italy must reform tax, labor, judicial system or risk "irreparable damage" of euro. Finally, Boerner says if Italy not willing to reform, "we have to think about how to deal with a modified eurozone."
What exactly a "modified" eurozone means we don't know. We will, however, surely find out soon enough.

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6 High-Yield REITs to Profit from Aging Boomers

The aging U.S. population is one of the most powerful social trends in the country. Retirees searching for income are one of the most powerful financial forces in the market. When you add the two together, you have the perfect cocktail of growth and income.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve punishing retirees by smashing interest rates into the ground, yield-hungry investors continue to turn away from traditional income safe havens like Treasury and investment-grade corporate bonds. One of the places they are turning to is real estate investment trusts (REITs). The key feature of a REIT is that its corporate structure requires it to pay 90% of its income to its limited partners, or unit holders.

This corporate structure has produced some very high yields during this time of record-low interest rates.

At the end of 2012, the average dividend yield on a REIT was about 3.6%, almost twice the yield of the benchmark 10-Year Treasury note, which yields a mere 2%. And after years of falling yields on REITs, the trend has begun reversing, with the groups average dividend yield up almost 12% in 2012. Looking forward, dividend yields on REITs are projected to grow about 6.5% annually through 2016, according to investment research company Cohen and Steers.  (more)

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Patience Will Reward Gold Bugs In Coming Months

After last weeks plunge in gold prices I expect a little more upside near the $1639 level before this starts it’s final leg down to the $1400 level. And when you check out the monthly chart below a drop of $200 is nothing.. (nooothing) when you compare the move it has had for all of 2000. I personally would like to see it drop even further as the more fear that happens when this drop the better.
When the monthly RSI gets to 40 start to watch for signs of support on the chart…and buy into that fear. I warn you it will be difficult as everyone will be declaring the gold bull market over. My analysis suggests that anybody buying now will be underwater very soon, but a great long term buying opportunity in gold could be a few months away.

Trading bias – I would either be short or neutral looking to add to shorts in the coming days to weeks. I would not be long gold right now as there is too much risk to the downside.


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What Happens Next After the Italian Elections?

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Chart of the Day - Clorox (CLX)

The Chart of the Day is Clorox (CLX) .  The stock has a 96% Barchart technical buy signal and has increased 15 times for a 7.65% gain in the last month.  The Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 1/14.

Clorox Company's business operations, represented by the aggregate of its U.S. Household Products and Canada, U.S. Specialty Products and International segments, include the production and marketing of non-durable consumer products sold primarily through grocery and other retail stores.

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Traders Could More Than Double Their Money With This Oil Play: PBR

The Brazil turnaround story garnered headlines and investors' attention in the first half of the last decade. But the past two years have seen an economic slowdown and a pullback in stock prices that I believe signals a great long-term buying opportunity.

The drop in oil prices, after a double-digit gain from $85 in December to $98 in February, has seen energy stocks unwinding. But global political risks and potential disruption concerns always provide bullish price shock possibilities in crude. 

I see the combination of Brazil and rising oil prices as an investment theme that is likely to do well in the future.

Petrobras (NYSE: PBR), an integrated oil and gas company in Brazil, fell from a peak at $77 to a low of $14 in 2008. The stock saw a recovery in 2009 to $53 before a long, long decline. It currently sits near $15, and I'm watching for a double-bottom to form at that $14 extreme low, which should act as a base.

The 2012 high at about $32 is more than 100% higher than the current price around the $15 area. A modest price objective is the halfway point of that 2012 high to 2013 lows, at about $23.50. (more)

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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

We May Be Seeing A V-Shaped Bottom In Gold

from KingWorldNews:
Today Ben Davies told King World News that we may well be seeing a “V-shaped bottom” in the gold market right now. But first, here is what the rising star had to say about the recent smash: “It feels like a smash to some extent. I think that’s because the market had been trading sideways for a while, so the release lower feels much more aggressive than perhaps it is. We’ve ostensibly come off about 5% or 6%.
Not withstanding that, it still feels quite aggressive. It’s disappointing for the bullion participants there is no doubt about it. When a market is giving you the best fundamentals in the world to be invested in, but is consistently showing a poor response to bullish news, you have to take note.
I believe when I last came on (to KWN) last time we talked about our trend system being ‘trend ready.’ The markets released lower, and now we’re into extremes that I haven’t seen in terms of sentiment since 1993 and 1997…”
Ben Davies continues @
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The USD Reversal No One is Talking About

The US dollar is one of the most important, yet least discussed chart of the year.  Noticing the dollar's break below 79600 late January, early February, only to establish a bearish bias and lure in shorts before turning around higher. The market has held above its reversal window, thus reversing the bearish bias which has led the market to take out its year highs of 8100 set early January.  This U turn is having a major effect and pressure on commodity markets as the USD failed to break lower and is trading on new highs for the year. Take note of the gold chart how it is completely opposite of the dollar chart and is an upside down "U" from the beginning of the year. Going forward, 80400-8100 is a new area of major support for the dollar market with stops below the year lows.  (more)

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Express Scripts Holding Company (NASDAQ: ESRX)

Express Scripts Holding Company provides a range of pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services in North America. It offers healthcare management and administration services on behalf of its clients, which include health maintenance organizations, health insurers, third-party administrators, employers, union-sponsored benefit plans, workers compensation plans, and government health programs. The company's integrated PBM services comprise network claims processing, home delivery services, patient care and direct specialty and fertility home delivery to patients, benefit plan design consultation, drug utilization review, formulary management, drug data analysis services, distribution of injectable drugs to patients homes and physicians offices, bio-pharma services, and fulfillment of prescriptions to low-income patients through manufacturer-sponsored patient assistance programs. It is also involved in the distribution of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies to providers and clinics; international retail network pharmacy management; home delivery pharmacy services in Germany; scientific evidence to guide the use of medicines, and diabetes prescriptions and testing supplies; and healthcare administration and implementation of consumer-directed healthcare solutions.
To analyze Express' stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ESRX (Express Scripts Holding Company) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ESRX (Express Scripts Holding Company) ESRX has a key price level at $56 (navy). Not only can you see the $56 resistance from back in July and over the last (4) months, but that price has also acted as support on a couple of occasions. So, the $56 level is key to this stock. If you are bullish, you would want to buy the stock on a pullback to $56. However, if you are bearish, you might short ESRX on a break of the $56 support.
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Arch Crawford – Is A Market Crash Coming By This Thursday?

from FinancialSurvivalNet
Arch Crawford, the renowned technical and astrological investor joined the show today. He believes that if there’s a crash coming in the next 6 months, it will occur by February 28, 2013. He’s not sure that it will happen, but if it does it will soon be here. While his forecasts are not 100 percent accurate, they are always interesting and provocative. He still thinks gold and silver are the investments for the intermediate and long term. Furthermore, he doesn’t see Congress fixing anything. So, what else is new? In addition, he said to watch out for May 20, a significant date on the Mayan Calendar.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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What’s Going on With This SILVER Correction? … Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Mining

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Market Plunges As European Crisis Is Back

from Zero Hedge
JPY saw a massive correction today – gaining 3% against the USD – its biggest single-day gain since May 2010 – dragging all the carry traders with it. S&P 500 futures volume exploded to its highest since the rally began in November as it broke its uptrend and slumped 40 points from its intraday highs. VIX’s term structure collapsed to its flattest in 18 months as spot surged above 19% (no – everyone wasn’t hedged). The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all red for the month and even the Trannies are almost unch. Treasuries soared with 10Y ending -10bps (after being +4bps at its worst of the day). Gold and Silver surged (with the latter testing near $1600 again) as WTI dropped 1%. Homebuilders (not helped by lumber’s price collapse) dropped 3.5% but every sector was ugly today and closed at its lows.
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James Turk Warns The Federal Reserve Is Already Insolvent / February 25, 2013
Today James Turk told stunned King World News when he warned, “… the Federal Reserve is already insolvent.”  Turk also stated, “Because of the intense leverage that the Federal Reserve employs, this means the mark-down on its $2.844 billion of securities is, in reality, a staggering $57 billion loss.”  Here is what Turk had to say in this extraordinary interview:  “There was an interesting article in The Telegraph here in London over the weekend, Eric.  It highlighted a study just released by former a Federal Reserve governor that examined the Fed’s solvency.”
James Turk continues:
“As The Telegraph explains, “The Federal Reserve is acutely vulnerable because it has stretched the average maturity of its bond holdings to 11 years, and the longer the date, the bigger the losses when yields rise.”  The paper then went on to say that “trouble could start by mid-decade and then compound at an alarming pace, with yields spiking up to double-digit rates by the late 2020s.”
I have been watching the yield on the 10-Year T-note and long-bond carefully here.  It is significant that yields have been rising fairly steadily over the last several months, and yields are already well above the record low they made back in June.  So I decided to read the study….
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Monday, February 25, 2013

Richard Russell – 3 Key Charts & Some Things To Think About

from King World News
With key global markets at or near breakout levels, and gold turning higher in after-hours trading, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, released 3 key charts covering everything from stocks, to commodities and gold. KWN even included a bonus chart of hedge fund activity in gold. Here is what Russell had to say in a note to subscribers: “From its recent high, the Dow (intraday yesterday) was down almost 200 points. Normally, this would be considered an overdue minor “back-off” from an overbought situation … When one Average advances to a new high, and that new high is unconfirmed by the other Average, trouble may be waiting.”
Richard Russell continues:
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The Best Stock for the Comeback Commodity of 2013

Although gold prices have taken a big hit of late and may be at the onset of a major pullback, there's one metal that's only recently started to rebound and is taking some stocks with it -- aluminum.
Since August of last year, aluminum prices have rallied from a multi-year low of 82 cents a pound to the current price of 96 cents a pound. Some say the shape of aluminum's price chart suggest a breakout is imminent, while others say the breakout is already underway.
Either way, with aluminum prices on the mend, companies like Alcoa (NYSE: AA) and Century Aluminum (Nasdaq: CENX) are finding it's easier to turn a profit. If aluminum prices continue their march toward higher levels, then these companies may post far wider profits this year than anyone is expecting, making aluminum stocks a potential Cinderella story for 2013.
A picture is worth a thousand words
The past couple of years haven't been good for the aluminum industry. After aluminum prices peaked around a two-year high of $1.35 a pound in early 2011 and began to fall to that late-2012 low of 82 cents a pound, aluminum companies commensurately suffered. For example, Alcoa's per-share profit plunged from 72 cents in 2011 to only 24 cents per share in 2012. Noranda Aluminum Holding (NYSE: NOR) watched its bottom line slump from $1.05 a share in 2011 to 2 cents a share in 2012.
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Crisis Investing 101: Real Estate Assets Provide Safety in Good Times and Bad

Real estate used to be the bedrock of many investors' portfolios. It used to stand the test of time as a sensible, solid investment across most every economic situation. That was until 2007, when the entire real estate market experienced what was unthinkable only a few years earlier: It plunged in value.
The real estate bubble that led to a stock market crash and the subsequent Great Recession is a story most people know: Overzealous lenders were giving away too many bad loans, while builders with access to easy money were developing too many homes. Everyone was happy and home prices soared.
But as home prices went up, people needed to borrow a lot more money. And eventually, those lenders couldn't afford to keep up with all the defaulted loans from bad creditors. Meanwhile, the oversupply of homes started to punish prices lower, leaving many homebuyers stuck owing way more than their homes valued.

Despite the real estate crisis, many savvy investors used the downturn to buy properties at bargain basement prices that will likely create profits regardless of what happens with the overall market. And indeed, just recently this downtrend in prices started to stabilize. Statistics from around the country are indicating upticks in prices and demand. (more)

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Why Warren Buffett is Loading Up on This Agricultural Giant

During the course of 2012, investing in agricultural stocks proved to be tricky. One of the nation's worst droughts on record up-ended the business model of so many companies as crops wilted and cattle were brought to premature slaughter.
Yet there were a few beneficiaries of the drought.

Back in July, I suggested that Bunge (NYSE: BG) and Ingredion (Nasdaq: INGR) would prosper, and in that time, they've scored gains of 22% and 42% respectively.

Back then, I looked at another major agricultural play, but sensed that it was too soon -- perhaps the back half of 2013 and into 2014 was the time to really focus on this company, I thought.

Warren Buffett has other ideas. He's already loading up on shares of Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM), acquiring 6 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2012 at an average price of $27.

Shares have risen a bit further since, and show signs of breaking out of a longstanding trading range.
Though the turnaround for Archer Daniels is several quarters away, Buffett and others have begun buying now. (more)

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Hyperinflation: A Graphic Presentation

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Why Investors Should Prepare for a Correction

We've all been through this drill before.
As if living through the effects of the 2007-2008 financial crisis and the Great Recession wasn't enough, investors continue to sit by and watch as officials in Washington wrangle over the question of how to get the U.S. government's spending problem under control.
If there's any lesson the whole "fiscal cliff" fiasco taught us, it's that our leaders in Washington have absolutely no problem with dragging out negotiations while bringing financial markets to the brink of disaster.

That's why, as we approach the March 1 deadline for the "sequester" -- a series of across-the-board cuts to the U.S. government's discretionary budget put in place in order to force Washington's hand -- investors should expect more of the same.
"We've seen this once or twice pretty much every year for the past three years. People get very optimistic about U.S. growth and then some sort of a shock happens that causes a growth scare and each time it catalyzed into a 5-10% correction in the S&P 500... And I expect exactly the same thing this time around," said Elliott Gue, Chief Strategist for Top 10 Stocks and High-Yield International on CNBC Asia Thursday evening.
"I actually think it's one of a number of things that's going to represent a bit of a headwind for the U.S. market going forward." said Elliott.
You can watch Elliott's full interview here.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Feb.   -- -0.11 (3-mo)
TUESDAY, Feb. 26
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Dec.   -- 5.5% (y-o-y)
9 am FHFA home price index Dec.   -- 5.6% (y-o-y)
10 am Consumer confidence index Feb.   62.5 58.6
10 am New home sales Jan.   384,000 369,000
8:30 am Durable goods orders Jan.   -5.0% 4.3%
8:30 am  Weekly jobless claims  2-23
-- 362,000
8:30 am GDP revision 4Q   0.5% -0.1%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Feb.   53.9 55.6
8:30 am Personal income Jan.
-2.4% 2.6%
8:30 am Consumer spending Jan.   0.2% 0.2%
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment Feb.   76.4 76.3
10 am ISM Feb.   52.5 53.1
10 am Construction spending Jan.   0.7% 0.9%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Feb.
15.1 mln 15.3 mln
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Saturday, February 23, 2013

Eric Sprott: The US Gov’t May Be Exporting German Gold to China!

from Silver Doctors:
Eric Sprott’s Shocking interview with The Doc is below:
The Doc asked Eric how tight the physical silver market is currently, and if he might soon be able to achieve his goal of not being able to source the last bar of silver for an offering:
That’s always one of my dreams! Some of the things that those in the precious metals market might hope for: 1. Money printing- I mean who would have imagined when they got involved in 2000 that we would see money printing which began in 2008/2009?
And then we see bank runs, which are two of the most wonderful things for precious metals owners, because those are reasons you own precious metals, and then you see the physical demand coming through, these are the perfect things that we want to see.
Read More @ Silver

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Moody Cuts UK Credit Rating

If anyone doubts we are in a serious Sovereign Debt Crisis, then explain why even the Credit Agencies are cutting the credit ratings of sovereign nations. There was France, and now there is the UK. Moody’s cuts the UK Credit Rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing weakness in the nation’s medium-term growth outlook that it now expects to extend for a number of years. Europe should put in a NEGATIVE growth rate in GDP for 2013. We are in absolute denial that the world around us is crumbling. Only those who are on point and think outside of the box will even survive. The rest as usual will see their futures stripped from them. This will be the most important event in our lifetimes. 

China-Republic-1921 8%The last generation that saw the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931 watched over 3,000 banks fail in the United States and capital simply when into hibernation. Government is doing absolutely everything they could do wrong at the perfect time to ensure we are in a shit-load of trouble. Forget the hyperinflation nonsense. These people are not about to print into oblivion. They are under pressure from the bondholders to pay and that means austerity, reducing spending, and raising taxes. Just look at these policies and their effect in Greece. Welcome to the real world where reality cannot be ignored forever. Interest rates will rise and as they do – oh boy! This is the serious issue of the Sovereign Debt Crisis.

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BMO Advisor Coxe: “This Is the Worst Trading Situation I Have Ever Seen”

Don Coxe Taking inspiration from George Orwell’s “1984,” renowned BMO advisor Don Coxe has coined the expression “Weakness is Strength” to describe the current economic situation. In a far-ranging interview with The Gold Report, Coxe explains how an international regime of weak currencies has set the scene for a upsurge in the price of gold shares and believes that gold will return as a preferred hedge against loss of value because inflation is inevitable.

from The Gold Report
The Gold Report: Your investors’ report last week was entitled, “Orwellian Currencies: Weakness is Strength.” Could you please explain?

Don Coxe: In his classic book, “1984,” George Orwell’s Big Brother rules society with three slogans: “War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Ignorance is strength.” I coined the slogan “Weakness is Strength” to sum up the idea that a weak currency creates a strong economy. But it has to be weak like Goldilocks’ porridge: Weak enough so that domestic industries can still sell products abroad, but not so weak that people dump government bonds and cause a financial crisis, which is the situation that threatened the Eurozone when the euro went south 18 months ago.
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Gasoline Prices Rise 34 Straight Days: Are Speculators to Blame? If Not, Who Is?

by Mike Shedlock, Global Economic Analysis:
Given a two-day plunge in crude futures, gasoline prices may have hit a temporary peak.
Nonetheless, consumers feel the pinch as pump prices have risen 34 straight days. For only the fifth time in history Gas prices topped $4 a gallon in District of Columbia.
Nationwide, the price of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $3.78 a gallon, up 47 cents in the past month, the AAA said.
In parts of California, Gasoline Prices Topped $5.00 on February 5. CNN Money has an interactive Gas Price map to check prices in your state.
Read More @

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Economics in One Lesson

Henry Hazlitt wrote this book following his stint at the New York Times as an editorialist. His hope was to reduce the whole teaching of economics to a few principles and explain them in ways that people would never forget. It worked. He relied on some stories by Bastiat and his own impeccable capacity for logical thinking and crystal-clear prose.

He was writing under the influence of Mises himself, of course, but he brought his own special gifts to the project. As just one example, this is the book that made the idea of the “broken window fallacy” so famous.

What thrills us in particular about this new edition is that it is beautiful, it is hardcover, and it is newly typeset for modern readers. It has a full index. It includes a wonderful foreword by Walter Block. It’s the right size, shape, and feel – perfect for making this book central to all educational efforts of the future.

This is the book to send to reporters, politicians, pastors, political activists, teachers, or anyone else who needs to know.

Professor Block explains that it was this book that turned him on to economics as a science. He believes that it is probably the most important economics book ever written in the sense that it offers the greatest hope to educating everyone about the meaning of the science.

Written for the non-academic, it has served as the major antidote to fallacies in the popular press, and has appeared in dozens of languages and printings. It’s still the quickest way to learn how to think like an economist. And this is why it has been used in the best classrooms more than sixty years.
Many writers have since attempted to beat this book as an introduction, but have never succeeded. Hazlitt’s book remains the best. Even if you own this book already, or have several past editions, you will want to have this book as your own as a wonderful testament to its place in the world of ideas.

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Speculators Exit from Gold Market Continues

This week’s Commitment of Traders report indicates a continuation of the trend that has been in place for some time now when it comes to gold, namely, the mass exodus of speculators from the gold market. Not only that, more and more hedge funds are playing gold from the short side of the market expecting lower prices in the future.
The following chart pretty much says it all. Take a look at the sharp drop in the number of outright long positions hedge funds are holding. Do you see the plummeting line. Is it any wonder that gold is plummeting lower? And what makes it even more noteworthy, is that this report DID NOT PICK UP the plunge through $1600 on Wednesday and the subsequent further pressure down towards $1555 the remainder of the week.
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Stunning 225 Tons of Physical Gold Bought By CBs

from KingWorldNews:
Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that Eastern central banks have taken a massive 225 tons out of the physical gold market on this recent takedown. This is the first in a series of interviews with Maguire lifting the curtain on what is going on behind the scenes in the ongoing gold and silver war which continues to rage.
Andrew Maguire continues @
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Tyrant v Statesman

Why do cycles work? Because indeed history repeats since the passions of man never change regardless of the centuries. The majority are always wrong for like Marx, they ignore HOW things function and prefer to believe only WHAT pleases their expectations. It is not that someone need be clairvoyant, all they need do is read history for it is both the script for how to create and destroy civilization, as well as the solution if we dare to truly learn HOW things function instead of merely pleasing our expectations.

Aristotle said “Now the corruptions attending each of these governments are these; a kingdom may degenerate into a tyranny, an aristocracy into an oligarchy, and a state into a democracy. Now a tyranny is a monarchy where the good of one man only is the object of government, an oligarchy considers only the rich, and a democracy only the poor; but neither of them have a common good in view.” (CHAPTER VII, A TREATISE ON GOVERNMENT;

Without foreseeing Marx, Aristotle understood that “democracy” can also be very dangerous for it can degenerate precisely into what Obama is doing right now where the majority suppress the minority when they discover they can merely vote themselves the assets of the minority. There can be no equal justice for all, honor, dignity, or beacon of light to guide the world as long as there is any class warfare and oppression of the minority by the majority that is merely slavery in another form. Thomas Jefferson also warned: “A democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where fifty-one percent of the people may take away the rights of the other forty-nine.”  This is why the glue of civilization is the rule of law. Without rights being established, then you defeat the very purpose of coming together to form any society. Why should anyone stay where he is oppressed?  Jefferson also warned that “It is more dangerous that even a guilty person should be punished without the forms of law than that he should escape.”  

The United States has used 911 to unleash tyranny in the classic sense. James Madison warned:  “If tyranny and oppression come to this land it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.”  Hence Jefferson explained: “When the people fear the government there is tyranny, when the government fears the people there is liberty.”  Government is paranoid for it looks out to the world. It saw the Arab youth use Twitter to organize a revolution and within 6 months Congress introduced the kill switch to shut down the internet in case of a cyber-attack. We have cyber-attacks going on right now. So? Government lives in fear for it knows it has lost control. It is destroying all freedom to cling to its last hopes of survival just as a Goldbugs refuse to accept that gold is a market that rises and falls. As long as government remains desperate in its quest to retain power refusing to reform, there will be no rule of law, no security, and not future but uncertainty. Thank you Obama for destroying our civilization following the same path as every tyrant before you. Tyrants are those who are concerned only about their self-interests. Great Statesmen, care about their country.

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Friday, February 22, 2013

Are we heading towards an Economic Collapse? Preparing for Financial Armageddon

from Off Grid Survival:
Our county sits at over 16 trillion dollars in debt, with unfunded obligations that make the actual debt number about $120 trillion. The reality of the situation is there’s really no way out of the situation. Our government, thanks to both political parties, has spent us into a hole that we cannot dig ourselves out of. The facts, that nobody seems to want to talk about, indicate our country is still heading towards a complete meltdown of the financial system.
You can choose to believe the lies that are being spoon feed to you by the mainstream media, or you can look at the reality of the situation; our Economy is still facing some enormous challenges, and the prospects for a full economic recovery don’t look very good. The financial problems that lead to the housing / financial market crash of 2008 have not been fixed; in fact, many of these problems are even worse today than they were in 2008.
Read More @

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It’s A Disgrace To Think Money Printing Solves Problems

from KingWorldNews:
With gold rebounding today after Marc Faber told King World News yesterday that a major bottom was forming in gold, we now focus on Faber’s comments on global money printing and how it is impacting key markets and society. Faber, who is author of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, stated, “… it’s a disgrace to think with money printing you can solve problems.”
Here is what Marc Faber had to say: “My view is that the money doesn’t flow, really, into the real economy. In other words, if you look at the whole recovery since 2009, and don’t forget the recovery officially started in June 2009 in the United States, so we are almost 4 years into an economic expansion, but when you compare this expansion to expansions in the 1960s, 1970s or 1980s, following recessions, it’s a very, very shallow expansion.”
Faber continues @

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3 Short-Squeeze Stocks Ready to Pop

The Holy Grail of investing has always been spotting the bubble before it pops. Riding the wave of exuberance and selling out just before the market collapses has made billionaires and gurus, while leaving the rest of the buyers back where they started.

While most investors like to look for bubbles in stocks that Wall Street is hyping on the upside, most don't realize it can work the other way around as well.
Sometimes, a company can be so hated and be the target of so much negative sentiment, the herd piles on to push it further down. This is most commonly done through short-selling, or borrowing and then selling the shares with the promise to buy them back later. If the stock price retreats, then the short seller makes money.

But just as a market bubble can burst when there are no more buyers, a short-seller bubble can burst when there are no more sellers. You see, all the investors who borrowed the shares must buy them back at some point. If the company catches some good news, or at least less bad news as expected, then the short-sellers may not be able to find willing sellers without offering higher prices. This phenomenon is known as a short squeeze (more)

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The Currency War Could Turn Into an Auto War / By Sean Hyman / February 20, 2013
Governments have always been a bit sneaky. They tend to hide what they can from the public. And I’d say the outcome of the latest G-20 meeting this past weekend was a great example of this.
This group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers from the world’s top 20 economies basically spent a ton of taxpayer money to jet over to Moscow to put together a statement that more or less said: “You can continue to devalue your currency… just don’t talk about it.”
In other words, feel free to do most anything. Just don’t let the public in on what you’re doing.
It’s a strategy that worked fairly well in the U.S., so the rest of the G-20 nations can now simply follow our example. Meanwhile, our Federal Reserve can continue to devalue our currency and the public still doesn’t get it.
How you’ve Already been Affected
by Currency Wars in the Past

The American standard of living continues to erode. Americans just don’t seem to realize the impact.
In fairness, there have been a number of mechanisms put in place to disguise what should be obvious.
For example, when I was growing up, people had car loans for two to four years. These days they have to stretch that out for up to seven years.
The food you buy at the grocery store costs more because you get a smaller quantity for a similar amount of money.
Also, what one income-earner used to be able to do in the 1960s and early 1970s, now takes two income-earners to produce a similar lifestyle. Yet all of these things are the result of the currency being undermined by the central bank with the full permission of the government.

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Hedge Funds Have Never Been More Bullish Stocks (And Bearish Gold)

from Zero Hedge:
Across the universe of hedge funds that Goldman Sachs covers, the net long exposure to the market reached a record-breaking 52% in Q4 2012 – the most bullish level on record. It would appear, as we noted here, that the 2-and-20 crowd of alpha generators have merely been corralled into beta-chasers as, just as they did in the run-up to the 2007/8 highs, their exposure is mirroring the broad market performance. It strikes us that a ‘hedge’ fund should, in general, be contrarily reducing exposure as the market rises but with turnover of all positions also at record lows it would appear the managers have set out their chips and are all holding on – as the reality of relative returns (in a fickle investing environment) trump absolute returns. Despite low turnover, hedge funds notably reduced holdings of underperforming long-time favorites Apple and gold (lowest holdings since the crisis began) while raising allocations to rallying Financials. Seems like deja vu to us?
Will hedge funds be turning point indicator as they were in 2007? Hedgies are the most bullish stocks on record currently – given their most net long nature…
Read More @

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Millions expect to outlive retirement savings

Obama is putting a huge effort to disarm Americans, yet he will not spend 1% of this effort to address the economy and honestly try to figure out what the hell is wrong. He is obsessed with always expanding the power of government. Remember how he stood before the nation and criticized Bush for GITMO? He has not closed that camp and the press will not even write about the issue including the NY Times. Nobody calls him out on a single thing. Why? What happened to our free press?
Here lies the seeds of the collapse in CONFIDENCE in Government. It is not the fear of hyperinflation, it is the fear of the FAILURE to be prepared for retirement. This is where the Marxists meet reality. Government is cutting everything and even Obama wants to cut Medicare. We are throwing the elderly under the bus – but he is concerned about mass shootings? The recent polls show the collapse on CONFIDENCE will be our undoing. This is what all the budget cuts are about – not printing relentlessly, but reneging on past promises

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Thursday, February 21, 2013

US dollar update

To the surprise of many, precious metals and commodity prices have continued to weaken since 2011 as the US dollar has been attracting international inflows. As marked in the chart update below, the $83.50 area on the US dollar index (against a basket of world currencies) is the level to watch for a confirmation of this bullish trend for the greenback; and the likely continuation of pain for commodities and commodity-focused economies like Canada, Australia, Brazil and Russia.

There are a couple of factors that may well continue this move over coming months: contracting world demand suggests further weakness for commodity prices, at the same time that the US dollar receives relative “safe haven” inflows from international capital looking for the most liquid places to park. In addition, in a world of near-zero deposit rates most places, currency appreciation offers the prospects for capital gains in the US dollar as it rallies from a 40% decade-long-decline between 2001 and 2011. With US stocks now priced for flat returns and ungodly volatility from present levels–literally return free risk– it is not necessary to hold dynamite for exposure to attractive return potential as the global economy slows down. But one does have to think outside of the group-think box.
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Forget Starbucks, This Growing Coffee Chain Is Ready To Explode: DNKN

I'll never forget my first visit to Starbucks (NYSE: SBUX). Many of my friends were talking enthusiastically about this fancy new coffee shop from Seattle that had just opened in the neighborhood. When I saw the prices and the strange names of the beverages, I nearly fainted in surprise. Heck, I could buy an entire meal at McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) for the price of one of Starbucks' drinks.

Not to mention, it had the nerve to name a small cup of coffee, "Tall." Strange words such as "Venti" and "Frappuccino" quickly became part of yuppie culture and then rapidly spread to all demographics, as Starbucks grew into the behemoth brand it is today.

Soon, paying up to $5 for a cup of coffee became acceptable. This fact alone proves the amazing marketing machine of Starbucks.
There is no doubt this company has become the undisputed king of coffee shops. But cracks are starting to show in its armor.

The bar has simply been set too high for this thriving brand. Despite the company's soaring profits, global expansion, aggressive acquisitions and immense popularity, it failed to meet fiscal first-quarter revenue expectations. During the 2013 fiscal first quarter (ended December 2012), Starbucks earned a little more than $432 million, with revenue of $3.8 billion, just short of the $3.85 billion analysts were expecting.  (more)

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HUI Has “Issues”

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini

The mining shares still continue to sink lower seemingly unable to attract sufficient buying to stem the flow of red ink being seen across the sector. As a fundamentalist, I think one can make the argument that some of the leading shares in the sector are severely undervalued against the price of gold; however, as a technician, one has to respect the chart action be that as it may.
I am presenting a monthly chart but wish to note that the last trading day for February has yet to arrive so there remains sufficient time for the index to recover. It is however flirting with some important chart support level. I thought that the index might have found enough buying near 380 to bottom it. That is evidently not the case.
Continue Reading at…

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The “Big Shift” & The Hidden Meanings In The New $100 Bill / By Bix Weir / February 20, 2013
As the pallets of new US $100 Bills lay waiting for mass domestic distribution in US Treasury warehouses around the United States one has to feel sorry the Sheeple who can’t see what is happening. The US is preparing for a return to the Gold Standard. It is obvious. It is blatant. And it is almost here.
Again, here’s my full analysis of the new $100 Bills…
The Hidden Meanings in the New $100 Bill
These bills will NOT be released until AFTER the crash.
As for the latest gold/silver slam…it’s great news for all Physical metal holders because it both draws attention to the obvious TOTAL control “they” have over the markets AND it means we are closer to the END than we were before the smash. It should also scare the pants off those holding Silver Derivatives such as ETF’s, Mining Shares, Silver Certificates, Pooled Accounts,etc. knowing that these forms of silver can be “set” to zero by computer programs and the markets shut down.That is a more likely End Game than a moonshot as there will be no paper winners.
The “Smart Money” should be shifting from all forms of paper silver into the real thing in their own possession at this point. I call it “The Big Shift”.
In the long run ONLY physical will survive the coming monetary meltdown.
May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
Bix Weir

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The Secret Strategy for Huge Gains in Biotech

The biotech industry is known for extreme innovation that can frequently lead to huge gains for early investors.
Take Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) for example. When the company released its groundbreaking cholesterol medicine Lipitor in 1996, the best-selling drug in the history of the pharmaceutical industry, shares proceeded to climb more than 300% in the following three years. Investors who knew Pfizer was on the cusp of a hot, new mega drug that made a lot of money in a very short amount of time.
Take a look at the incredible gains the stock saw...
But historically, finding the next hot thing in biotech and pharmaceuticals has been extremely difficult. Not only are there thousands of companies across the world pursuing thousands of new drugs and therapies, but most are subjected to strict regulatory standards that can delay or even prevent them from ever putting their drugs into the market.
But thanks to a new program the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) just implemented, finding hot new drugs with high probability of reaching commercialization just became a lot easier. (more)

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

About This Week’s Show:
-The whole world is copying Bernanke insanity
-Excluding deficit spending, the U.S. is in a depression
-Gold: Prices sag but supply/demand screams Bull

Sign Up for Live Conference Call With David!

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  • Dial this number on Thursday, February 21st at 8:00 PM (EST)

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Stocks Drop Most In 2013 As Gold Is Crucified On The Death Cross

from Zero Hedge:
A strange sea of red inhabits the screens of many traders and investors across the USA this evening, and all it took was for the FOMC to hint that the punchbowl will have to be taken away at some point in the future. Biggest jump in VIX in 2013; biggest plunge in Homebuilders in 8 months (as TOL misses and Starts were ugly); biggest dump in stocks in 2013; Gold plunges to $1565 and suffers Death Cross; USD soars and crosses above its 200DMA; and oil has frantic flash crash early on. Not a pretty day as stocks drop below the lower edge of their up-trend channel for the year and test critical support amid the highest volume of the year. The four words on everyone’s lips this evening: Where is Kevin Henry?
Read More @

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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

European Bank CEO Admits: "The Whole Thing Is Doomed"

As the European parliament attempts to create a budget and Draghi repeats how the temporary lull in European growth is merely a prelude to a growth renaissance in the second half of the year (not to be confused with the verbatim lie rehashed by European dignitaries in 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009), it appears a few leaks of truthiness are seeing daylight in the disunion. In a shockingly frank interview, the CEO of Saxo Bank describes the Euro's recent rally as illusory and that "the whole thing is doomed," as the continent is not supported by a fiscal union. As Bloomberg reports, Lars Seier Christensen says he would be a "seller of the EUR at anything near 1.40," noting that "right now we’re in one of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn’t at all." Confirming that the only thing holding the farce together is political not economic efforts, he sums the situation up perfectly: "people have been dramatically underestimating the problems."

Via Bloomberg,
Lars Seier Christensen, co-chief executive officer of Danish bank Saxo Bank A/S, said the euro’s recent rally is illusory and the shared currency is set to fail because the continent hasn’t supported it with a fiscal union.

“The whole thing is doomed,” Christensen said yesterday in an interview at the bank’s Dubai office. “Right now we’re in one of those fake solutions where people think that the problem is contained or being addressed, which it isn’t at all.”


I’d be a bigger seller of the euro at anything near 1.4,” according to Christensen, who said he isn’t making any speculative bets against the currency.


“Another possible fallout is getting rid of some of the countries that are being ruined by being in the euro, notably the southern European economies,” Christensen said. “People have been dramatically underestimating the problems the French are going to get from this. Once the French get into a full- scale crisis, it’s over. Even the Germans cannot pay for that one and probably will not.”


Record Debt

Public-sector debt is at record levels, having more than doubled from 40 percent of gross domestic product in 2008. The European Commission, which is due to update its forecasts this week, sees it rising to 97.1 percent of GDP next year.

“It’s the political world that has been extremely supportive of the euro, not for economic reasons but for political reasons,” said Christensen, a long-time critic of the single currency who now lives in Switzerland.
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Bernard Baruch’s Ten Investing Rules

You want someone to emulate?
Bernard Baruch (August 19, 1870 – June 20, 1965) was the son of a South Carolina physician whose family moved to New York City when he was eleven year old. By his mid-twenties, he is able to buy an $18,000 seat on the exchange with his winnings and commissions from being a broker. By age 30, he is a millionaire and is known all over The Street as “The Lone Wolf”.
In his two-volume 1957 memoirs, My Own Story, Baruch left us with the following timeless rules for playing the game:
“Being so skeptical about the usefulness of advice, I have been reluctant to lay down any ‘rules’ or guidelines on how to invest or speculate wisely. Still, there are a number of things I have learned from my own experience which might be worth listing for those who are able to muster the necessary self-discipline:”
1. Don’t speculate unless you can make it a full-time job.
2. Beware of barbers, beauticians, waiters — of anyone — bringing gifts of “inside” information or “tips.”
3. Before you buy a security, find out everything you can about the company, its management and competitors, its earnings and possibilities for growth.
4. Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. This can’t be done — except by liars.
5. Learn how to take your losses quickly and cleanly. Don’t expect to be right all the time. If you have made a mistake, cut your losses as quickly as possible.
6. Don’t buy too many different securities. Better have only a few investments which can be watched.
7. Make a periodic reappraisal of all your investments to see whether changing developments have altered their prospects.
8. Study your tax position to know when you can sell to greatest advantage.
9. Always keep a good part of your capital in a cash reserve. Never invest all your funds.
10. Don’t try to be a jack of all investments. Stick to the field you know best.
Baruch would later go on from Wall Street to Washington DC as an advisor to both Woodrow Wilson and to FDR during World War II.
Later, he became known as the Park Bench Statesman, owing to his fondness for discussing policy and politics with his acquaintances outdoors.
He lived til a few days shy of his 95th birthday in 1965. You could do worse than to invest and live based on these simple truths.

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Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS)

Barnes & Noble, Inc. operates as a content, commerce, and technology company in the United States. It provides access to books, magazines, newspapers, and other content through its multi-channel distribution platform. It sells trade books, including hardcover and paperback consumer titles; mass market paperbacks, such as mystery, romance, science fiction, and other fiction; children's books; eBooks and other digital content; NOOK products comprising NOOK 1st Edition, NOOK Wi-Fi 1st Edition, NOOK Color, NOOK Simple Touch, NOOK Tablet, and NOOK Simple Touch with GlowLight eBook reader devices and related accessories; bargain books; magazines; gifts; cafe products and services; educational toys and games; music; and movies. The company sells its products directly to customers through its bookstores and on It also sells textbooks and course-related materials, emblematic apparel and gifts, trade books, school and dorm supplies, and convenience and cafe items in college and university campuses.
To analyze Barnes's stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of BKS (Barnes & Noble, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of BKS (Barnes & Noble, Inc.) BKS has a key price level at $14. Not only can you see the $14 resistance (red) from back in April, but $14 has also acted as support (green) on multiple occasions. So, the $14 level is key to this stock. If you are bullish, you would want to buy the stock on a pullback to $14. However, if you are bearish, you might short BKS on a break of the $14 support.
The Tale of the Tape: BKS presents a couple of simple trading opportunities based on its key level of $14. A long position could be entered at the $14 support with a stop placed below that level, or a short play could be made on a break below $14 if that should happen.
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