Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Gold Traders and Investors Get Ready To Rumble

Gold has plummeted 17.5% dropping from $1600 down to $1320 per ounce with silver and gold stocks falling also they are now headline news once again. This move has caused some serious damage to the charts when looking at it from a technical analysis point of view. Below are some basic analysis points that show a new swing trading entry point.
The Technical Traders Chart Analysis:
Broken Support – Once a support level has been broken it becomes resistance. Gold is trading under a major resistance level.
Momentum Bursts - Since the April 15th low, gold has been setting up for another short selling entry point. Remember the market tends to move in bursts of three, seven or ten days then price reverses direction or pauses. It has now been 10 days.
Moving Average Resistance – Gold has worked its way up to the 20 day moving average which can act as resistance.
Bearish Inside Bars – This type of chart pattern points to lower prices. When there is a big down day followed by 3, 7 or 10 up days inside the price action of the down bar we can typically expect another sharp drop which tests the recent lows as shown with the arrow on the chart.

Gold Short Selling Conclusion:
In short, gold is setting up for a low risk entry point that should allow us to profit from lower gold prices. Using an inverse ETF like DZZ or even the gold mining stock inverse ETF DUST could be played. These funds go up in value as the price of gold falls.
While I expect gold to pullback, I do not think it will make another leg lower. Instead, a test of the recent low or pierce of the low by a few bucks then reverse and start building a bullish basing pattern before going higher.
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Report: Farmers Hoarding Food To Protect Against Currency Collapse

shtfplan.com / By Mac Slavo /
Which asset is more secure than money in the bank?
The answer is simple.
It’s the asset that will still have value when the money or the bank collapse.
All over the world, when people have been faced with the prospect of having their savings wiped out or confiscated they have turned to hard assets – physical goods they could hold in their possession and trade if necessary – as protection.
Argentina, a country that is no stranger to economic hard times and hyperinflation, gives us a prime example of what becomes money when the system collapses.
At an inflation rate of 25%, while their currency loses significant purchasing power, Argentines have made a mad rush into gold, silver, and other tangible goods that retain their barterable value.
Like many Greeks, who have headed to the countryside to grow their own food in the midst of complete economic destruction, farmers in Argentina are hoarding the one tangible investment they know will not lose value, no matter what their currency does.
With world food demand on the rise, growers in the Pampas grain belt are filling their silos with soy rather than converting their crops into pesos, a currency that hit a new all-time low in informal trade this week.
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Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB)

Facebook, Inc. operates as a social networking company worldwide. It builds various tools that enable users to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other on mobile devices and computers. The company's Facebook Platform is a set of development tools and application programming interfaces that enables developers to integrate with Facebook for creating social apps and Websites. As of December 31, 2012, it had 1.06 billion monthly active users and 618 million daily active users. The company has a strategic partnership with Trend Micro Inc. for educating and protecting users' digital lives against malicious sites and malware. Facebook, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of FB (Facebook, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of FB (Facebook, Inc.) FB has been holding a very important level of support at $25 (navy) for the last (5) months. No matter what the market has or has not done over that period of time, FB has not broken below that $25 support level. The stock approaching $25 again should provide another bounce higher. However, if the overall market were to sell-off, FB could break that support.
The Tale of the Tape: FB has a very strong level of support at $25. A trader could enter a long position at $25 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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We Will Never See Cheap Oil Again

Doesn't $2.50 per gallon for gasoline sound just dandy? During the 2012 presidential race, a couple candidates used that number as a way of showing how increased American production would lead to lower prices and higher energy security. The problem is, though, that despite the increase in production in the U.S., cheap gas and cheap oil will more than likely remain a pipe dream.
Let's look at why oil prices will remain high despite our best efforts.

Drilling costs just aren't what they used to be

The boom in U.S. energy has been made possible by several factors: development of advanced drilling technology, a large distribution network already in place, and a favorable regulatory framework. One element that is commonly overlooked, though, is the price of oil production. Accessing shale deposits requires not only deeper wells, but also much more energy for extraction. Today, wells are drilled for miles underground and cracked open with high pressure pumps and lots of water. Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) estimates that each new well requires 5 million gallons of water. Despite the best efforts of exploration and production companies to reduce costs, these new drilling techniques have break-even wellhead prices for most U.S. shale plays at $55-$80 per barrel.

The U.S. is not the only country that needs expensive oil prices. Both Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two largest global oil producers, need high oil prices for economic sustainability. For Saudi Arabia, its $630 billion economic development program is funded on the back of its national oil company, Saudi Aramco. In order for the country to meet its budgetary obligations, it needs current production levels priced at about $90. The same can be said for Russia; its government's largest revenue source is oil royalties. For the country to balance its budget, oil export prices need to be north of  $120. For both of these countries, it is imperative that oil prices remain high enough to prop up government spending.  (more)

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Why Shorting the Aussie Is ‘Trade of the Century’

by Rajeshni Naidu-Ghelani

The resilient Australian dollar, which has overcome global headwinds to stay above parity against the U.S. dollar for most of the past two years, is due for a major correction, according to one analyst who predicts the currency could fall over 40 percent in the next 18 months.
“It’s difficult to see any clear major direction in any of the currencies other than the Aussie dollar longer term, which we obviously think looks like the trade of the century, trying to short the Aussie, “Paul Gambles, managing partner at advisory firm MBMG International told CNBC’s “Asia Squawk Box” on Monday.
Continue Reading at CNBC.com…

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4 Things That Will Surprise You About Retirement

Retirement is supposed to be a time of leisure, when folks who've worked and saved their whole lives get to enjoy the fruits of their labors.
The reality is a lot more stressful. Consider just this one stat: Some 45% of Americans enter retirement still paying off their house. With no more earnings coming in the door, that puts a further strain on savings accounts.
In the video below, senior editor Dayana Yochim and Robert Brokamp, a Certified Financial Planner and advisor of Motley Fool Rule Your Retirement, discuss four of the most surprising things about retirement.

The best investing approach is to choose great companies and stick with them for the long term. 

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Dennis Gartman: I Hate This Gold Play

Stay away from an implied bet on gold by buying mining company stocks, Dennis Gartman says.

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Weaponized America: Sturm, Ruger Backlog Doubles; Gun Production, Shipments Surge

zerohedge.com / By Tyler Durden /
Whether it is due to the recent governmental attempt to enforce assorted gun controlling measures in the aftermath of the Newtown, CT shooting, or, merely driven by the same catalyst that saw a surge in gun sales four years ago, namely the presidential election, one thing is certain: America is weaponizing itself at an unheard of pace, with both Sturm, Ruger shipments and units produced surpassing 500,000 each in one quarter for the first time in history.
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Monday, April 29, 2013

Eric Sprott – Silver To Skyrocket Hundreds Of Dollars in Price

from KingWorldNews:
Eric King: “Eric, what has you worried going forward?”
Sprott: “These policies of supporting the financial system or the banking system are not going to work. QE1 didn’t work, QE2 didn’t work, now we’ve got QE3 and Japanese money printing. Central banks are (also) now buying stocks.
How much lunacy do we have to have? Just think through it a little. It has to stop some day. We just can’t keep accelerating this without one of two things happening: You are going to get a financial collapse, or you are going to get hyperinflation….
Eric Sprott Audio Interview @ KingWorldNews.com

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Overbought and Oversold Markets

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price moves. The RSI moves between zero and 100 and is considered overbought with a reading above 70 and oversold when below 30.  Note the RSI can sustain an overbought (oversold) reading in a strong up (down) trend.
Click chart to enlarge.
(click here if chart is not observable)
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Alasdair Macleod – What COMEX Default?

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Investment Education 101: Time Value of Money

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KB Home operates as a homebuilding and financial services company in the United States. The company constructs and sells various homes, including attached and detached single-family residential homes, townhomes, and condominiums primarily for first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers. It also provides title and insurance services to homebuyers. As of November 30, 2012, the company delivered 6,282 homes. It has operations in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. The company was formerly known as Kaufman and Broad Home Corporation and changed its name to KB Home in 2001. KB Home was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
To review KB's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of KBH (KB Home) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of KBH (KB Home) For the last (2) months KBH has been stuck within a common pattern known as a rectangle. Rectangle patterns form when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. KBH's rectangle pattern has formed a $22.50 resistance (red) and a $20 support (navy). A break above $22.50 would also be a new 52-week high.
The Tale of the Tape: KBH has formed a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $20, or on a breakout above $22.50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $20.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
MONDAY, April 29
8:30 am Personal income March   0.4% 1.1%
8:30 am Consumer spending March   0.1% 0.7%
10 am Pending home sales March   -- 3.9%
TUESDAY, April 30
8:30 am Employment cost index 1Q   0.5% 0.5%
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Feb.   -- 8.1% (yoy)
9:45 am Chicago PMI April   52.8 52.4
10 am Consumer confidence index April   61.3 59.7
8:15 am ADP employment index April   170,000 158,000
10 am ISM April   50.9 51.3
10 am Construction spending March
0.7% 1.2%
TBA Motor vehicle sales April   15.3 mln 15.3 mln
2 pm FOMC announcement        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 4/27
346,000 339,000
8:30 am Trade deficit March   -$42.0 bln -$43.0 bln
8:30 am Productivity 1Q   1.0% -1.9%
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls April   160,000 88,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate April
7.6% 7.6%
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing April   53.5 54.4
10 am Factory orders March   -2.9% 3.0%
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Saturday, April 27, 2013

Notes on Gold’s Commitment of Traders Report

traderdannorcini.blogspot.com / By Dan Norcini / 

A brief summary – All classes of speculators, hedge funds, other large reportables, and the general public, were net sellers of gold this past reporting period.
The other side of the equation, the buying, was done by the commercial category (bullion banks, etc,) and the swap dealers. The swap dealers, in particular, are a very good group of traders since they trade not only for clients and for the purpose of hedging, but can also speculate for their own interests.
I should note here that both of the latter categories, remain net short overall but continue to consistently reduce that position as they cover existing shorts and institute fresh long positions.
The small specs, the general public, are now showing the smallest net long position on record from this report which dates back to the beginning of 2006. In going back even further to 1999, they still have the smallest net long position that they have held in over a decade. That is quite remarkable!
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Bonds 101: Yields, Prices, And Inflation

We recently showed 220 years of US Treasury bond yield history but all too often, the average investor is unfortunately unaware of the relationship between bond yields (interesting on a relative-value perspective) and bond prices (the thing that matters for your portfolio’s returns). The two measures are inextricably linked obviously (a higher yield implies a lower price and vice versa) but the relationship is not a straight line – it has ‘convexity’. The following charts may help understand the upside-downside changes from ‘yield’ movements, what the Fed is doing to the relationship, and how inflation expectations impact these changes.
Via Goldman Sachs:
Bonds are loans that investors make to governments, municipalities or companies, which typically pay the investors a fixed rate of interest until the bonds mature and the loans are repaid.
The most well-known US government bond is the 10-year US Treasury bond, which matures ten years from the issue date. Right now, investors can purchase a bond for $100 with a yield of about 1.7%, or about $1.70 per year – almost nothing! But there is a bond market that moves daily, so the price of bonds will move depending on interest rates and the economy.

Although investors can simply hold the bond they purchased until maturity and be paid back what they spent in full (plus the interest they’ve received), they can also sell the bond before maturity. What they get back, however, will depend on interest rates at the time that they sell. If interest rates have risen, then it will be harder to sell their lower-yielding bond, and they will have to sell it for less than they paid for it. If interest rates have declined, then other investors will want to own the bond, and the seller can charge more than they paid for it. So bond holders don’t fare well when interest rates rise (more)

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How to Set Up a Trust Fund for Your Child

Establishing a trust fund is one way to transfer assets between generations. With the right type of trust, you can distribute assets to your child both before and after you die, without subjecting your child to the expenses and delays of the probate process. Depending on how you set it up, you may also enjoy significant tax benefits.


The creation of a trust requires at least three parties -- the grantor, the trustee and the beneficiary. If you own trust assets jointly with your spouse, you should name both yourself and your spouse as grantors -- the property owners who are transferring assets to the beneficiary, your child. The trustee is the person who manages the property for the beneficiary. If you prefer, you can name yourself as trustee. If you name yourself as trustee and you want the trust to continue after you die, however, you need to name a successor trustee. Alternatively, you can name another individual or even a trust company as your trustee. If you plan to distribute assets to your child before he reaches the age of majority, you might appoint someone to manage his distributions from the trust until he becomes an adult.


A living trust is established by creating a declaration of trust, a document that takes trust assets out of the jurisdiction of the probate court. The declaration of trust should name all parties to the trust as well as any successors. Most importantly, it should set out specific instructions that tell that trustee what to do with trust assets. Trusts are quite flexible instruments -- you might have your trustee distribute assets all at once, distribute them gradually both before and after you die, or even invest trust assets and distribute only investment profits to your child. You should also state whether the trust is revocable or irrevocable during your lifetime.


Transfer the titles to titled trust assets such as real estate, automobiles and bank accounts into the name of the trustee in a form such as "John Doe, Trustee of the Smith Family Living Trust." This format makes it clear that the trustee is holding trust assets for the beneficiary rather than for himself. You might also make a list of untitled trust assets, such as household furnishings, to attach to the declaration of trust as an appendix.

The Testamentary Trust

A testamentary trust differs from a living trust in two ways -- it doesn't take effect until you die, and it is created by the terms of your will. Testamentary trusts contain the same terms as living trusts, but can be quite complex in some cases. The probate court will have jurisdiction over your trustee until the trust terminates. Because the trust doesn't take effect until you die, it is necessarily irrevocable. In many cases, the grantor will provide that the remaining assets of a testamentary trust are to be distributed to the beneficiary as soon as he reaches the age of majority.

Getting Help

Creating a trust can be tricky. For this reason, you might hire a local lawyer to set up a trust for you if you will contribute substantial assets to it. Alternatively, you might take advantage of online resources (please see Resources section) that offer templates, or software that allows you to create a declaration of trust. Since every trust is different, be sure to individualize your declaration of trust to fit your needs and your state's laws.
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Central Banks Buying Shares & Selling Gold?

What is interesting is that those who manage the more than $11 trillion in reserves for central banks know more than what they are revealing. Previously, on April 4th we reported that China’s debt holding in Euros fell to BELOW 7%.
We have been collecting the raw data on the reserve holdings and will report shortly on that breakdown. However, what has been going on is nothing but shocking. While the gold promoters are touting hyperinflation, the central bank reserves have been diversifying and moving into TOP BLUE CHIP STOCK!!!!!!! Yes – you read correctly.
Even when the Federal Reserve was originally formed in 1913, to “stimulate” the economy it once upon a time bought corporate paper. When World War I came, the politicians told the Fed it had to buy only US government paper – not corporate. During World War II, the Fed was ordered to support US government bonds at PAR until 1950.They thereafter began a crash and burn nosedive for 31 years into 1981.
Some central banks appear poised to sell gold to raise money given they have no intent to return to a gold standard. This is the shadow behind the advice to Cyprus to dump gold. Meanwhile, Switzerland had recalled its gold because the US was going after them for helping Americans avoid taxes. The Swiss hold 70% of their gold reserves at home, 20% is held by the Bank of England, and 10% by Canada. They removed all gold from the USA. Thus, those who said Germany would find the US vaults empty, have been proven wrong by the Swiss who preceded the Germans on that score.
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The Last Time Gold Dropped This Much

The Last Time Gold Dropped This Much
goldsilver.com / April 26, 2013
As recently as April 15th of this year, gold plunged $144 an ounce in Its “biggest two-day decline since 1983,” totaling a 14.9% drop in price. However, the speed of gold’s most recent price drop is not rare. As Dr. Ron Paul explained on Bloomberg, “in the 1970′s… it went from $35 to $200 rather rapidly, and then it lost 50%. Then it went up to $800.” Paul continued:
“To compare a couple of months or a couple of weeks and forget about a bull market in gold price in relationship to the dollar for 12 years. I would say the comparison is not an authentic comparison. What you have to look at is the inflation. Inflation is an increased supply of money [currency].”
The last time gold dropped this much, Seeing “disorderly, hurried selling in the past five years,” it was July 2008. Gold quickly dropped 21%, and the Price collapse “sent a ripple of alarm through the investment world.”
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Commodities Could Turn Lower

CRX is at support and Gold looks like it’s at resistance nearing the 20 ema. If this is a major long term bottom I think we need a retest to make it complete. Look for a pullback to the $1375 and if that holds then it may be safe to buy gold. Right now I think we’re at some strong resistance.

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Investment Education 101: Compound Interest

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Wealth From a Prepper’s Perspective

by DocLiberty, Survival Blog:
Many (if not most) people seek wealth, yet few can define it. There are many practical definitions. One author defines wealth as having sufficient assets to provide the cash flow necessary to meet your monthly living expenses. That’s a great definition for normal times, but having a bunch of rental houses when the dollar is worthless and the hungering hoards are loose upon society won’t do you much good.
If you are at all familiar with the concepts promoted in this blog you know what you need to have for basic survival. I will not spend space and electrons reviewing what we already know. But what do you do after you have the basics? Do you continue to accumulate more of the basics until you need a multilevel secret subterranean warehouse to house your supplies?
Read More @ SurvivalBlog.com

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Friday, April 26, 2013

Sinclair – This Is The Beginning Of The End For The Gold Shorts

from KingWorldNews:
Sinclair: “I think it’s critically important for investors to realize that the COMEX warehouse is not going to wait for significant further declines in their inventories before they adjust their settlement mechanism.
Yesterday we pointed out that during the Hunt crisis there was this type of adjustment made by the COMEX Board of Directors. We also quite clearly demonstrated that there is a strong correlation between the present lack of supply in the gold market and what happened back in 1980.
So any further significant drawdowns on the COMEX warehouse are going to cause to the COMEX go to a new type of settlement….
Jim Sinclair continues @ KingWorldNews.com
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The Market & Cycles – Why We Must Crash & Burn

One Response regarding this problem that we must crash and burn states that this “is somewhat of a paradox though, see some people, not so conflicted by their personal conscience (against obedience to authority / control ), but influenced by their uncertainty and/or lack of confidence. obviously, not all people are the same. Guess for the higher circumscribed step, to a world Government, should always pass through crash and burn stages, as history dictates, can never take the step smoothly:) ?

ANSWER: This is what makes cycles function. (1) there is the overall cycle of the economy such as the ECM, (2) then there are the cycles of individual markets that each has its own unique frequency like DNA, and finally (3) each of us has a personal cycle of life through which we pass, mature, and hopefully learn from our mistakes.

We all have our individual cycle of life, experience, and knowledge. We buy the high and sell the low in our youth. As we grow older, we realize we have been there, done that. Wisdom emerges and we then sell the high and buy the low. Not everyone is in the same position or place within the cycle. This is what makes the world tick. (more)

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Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: LGF)

Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., an entertainment company, engages in motion picture production and distribution, television programming and syndication, home entertainment, family entertainment, digital distribution, new channel platforms, and international distribution and sales activities. The company operates through two segments, Motion Pictures and Television Production. The Motion Pictures segment engages in the development and production of feature films; acquisition of North American and worldwide distribution rights; North American theatrical, home entertainment, and television distribution of feature films produced and acquired. The Television Production segment is involved in the development, production, and worldwide distribution of television productions, including television series, television movies and mini-series, and non-fiction programming. The company distributes a library of approximately 13,000 motion picture titles, television episodes, and programs directly to retailers, rental kiosks, and pay and free television channels through various digital media platforms in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Ireland, as well as indirectly to other international markets through its subsidiaries and various third parties.
To review Lions' stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of LGF (Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of LGF (Lions Gate Entertainment Corp.) For the last (2) months LGF has been stuck within a common pattern known as a rectangle. Rectangle patterns form when a stock gets stuck bouncing between a horizontal support and resistance. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. LGF's rectangle pattern has formed a $24 resistance (red) and a $22 support (blue). A break above $24 would also be a new 52-week high.
The Tale of the Tape: LGF has formed a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $22, or on a breakout above $24. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $22.
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Child Hunger Is Exploding In Greece – And 14 Signs That It Is Starting To Happen In America Too

The world is heading into a horrific economic nightmare, and an inordinate amount of the suffering is going to fall on innocent children.  If you want to get an idea of what America is going to look like in the not too distant future, just check out what is happening in Greece.  At this point, Greece is experiencing a full-blown economic depression. And as you will read about below, child hunger is absolutely exploding in Greece right now.  Some families are literally trying to survive on pasta and ketchup.  But don't think for a moment that it can't happen here.Sadly, the truth is that child hunger is already rising very rapidly in our poverty-stricken citiesNever before have we had so many Americans unable to take care of themselves. Unfortunately, more poor families slip through the cracks with each passing day, and these are supposedly times in which we are experiencing an "economic recovery".  So what are things going to look like when the next major economic downturn strikes? (more)

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A fantastic new interview with top market analyst Ned Davis

“We are in the business of making mistakes. The only difference between the winners and the losers is that the winners make small mistakes, while the losers make big mistakes.”
-Ned Davis

If you are a regular main street investor, you may never heard of Ned Davis.
If you are a market technician, however, you certainly have –  Ned Davis may be the single most highly respected Technical Analyst working today.
The 67 year old Davis began Ned Davis Research (NDR*) in 1980. The firm quickly developed a reputation as independent, institutional research company by offering unbiased, in-depth financial analysis. Compared to compromised wirehouse research, NDR was driven instead by sophisticated analytic tools and data integrity. (See this year 2,000 article for a deep dive into the firm).
Ned was a regular on Louis Rukeyserer, and frequently graces the pages of Barron’s. Typical observations: In October 2012, Davis said the data suggested Gold was Facing ‘Excessive Optimism’.
If you want to know if its worth your time to spend an hour with this legendary technician, consider what Ned calls the four basic traits of successful investors:
1. They look at objective indicators. Removing the emotions from the investing process, they focus on data instead of reacting to events;
2. They are Disciplined:  The data drives decision making with pre-established rules. External factors do not influence them;
3. They have Flexibility:  The best investors are open-minded to new ideas, or revisiting previous thoughts;
4. They are Risk adverse: Not always obvious to investors, it is a crucial part of successful investing.
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Catherine Austin Fitts: Another Gold Smackdown Coming?

Last weekend the disturbingly-brilliant Catherine Austin Fitts, publisher of the Solari Report, passed through town, giving us a chance to finally meet face-to-face. In the following excerpt from a much wider-ranging talk she explains the deeper, more sinister reasons for the recent action in precious metals.
DollarCollapse: It’s great to finally meet you, Catherine. The timing couldn’t be better, what with the recent, um, correction in gold and silver. What’s your take: was it driven by fundamentals or manipulation?
Catherine Austin-Fitts: We’re in a world where we have markets and we have management, so the question is which is dominant at any given time. In terms of fundamentals, the global economy is slowing, no doubt about that. The timing of the big drop in precious metals coincided with an announcement that growth in China had slowed. So there’s lower growth, particularly in the markets where there’s big demand for gold. (more)

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JPMorgan’s Eligible Gold Plummets 65% In 24 Hours To All Time Low

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 04/25/2013 17:30 -0400
We are confident that in the aftermath of our article from last night “Just What Is Going On With The Gold In JPMorgan’s Vault?” in which we showed the absolute devastation of “eligible” (aka commercial) gold warehoused in JPM’s vault just over the Manhattan bedrock at 1 Chase Manhattan Place (and also in the entire Comex vault network in the past month), we were not the only ones checking every five minutes for the Comex gold depository update for April 25. Moments ago we finally got it, and it’s a doozy. Because in just the past 24 hours, from April 24 to April 25, according to the Comex, JPM’s eligible gold plunged from 402.4K ounces to just 141.6K ounces, a drop of 65% in 24 hours,and  the lowest amount of eligible gold held at the vault on record, since its reopening in October 2010!
Everyone has seen what a run on the bank looks like. Below is perhaps the best chart of what a “run on the vault” is.
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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Real Estate Pump and Dump Scheme-Fabian Calvo

Fabian Calvo of TheNoteHouse.us processes $100 million of distressed real estate annually. He says we are in the process of a pump and dump real estate crisis.

Calvo contends, “The big hedge funds and big private equity are buying all the real estate right now. . . . So, when they start dumping, they will be dumping to those buyers who will be getting money for free from the government. It has all the characteristics of a pump and dump scheme.” Calvo claims, “No money down loans are up nearly 20%.” Calvo predicts, “It will be bigger than the last one because it will be a bursting of multi-bubbles–not just the housing bubble, but the bubble in U.S. Treasuries. It will take out the real estate bubble. They will both go down together.” Calvo contends, “You have a mad scramble for hard assets globally. It’s not just gold. Sovereign wealth funds are buying real estate like crazy.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Fabian Calvo of TheNoteHouse.us.

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Oil Surges Most In 5 Months With eMini Volume Near Lows Of Year

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden /
After touching multi-year highs amid the exuberance of liquidity sloshing around the world, Oil became too glaring a concern and two weeks of suppression took the only Central-Bank-’Governor’ to much more comfortable levels. But, the last week has seen the biggest 5-day jump in WTI in 8 months and today the biggest jump in 5 months. It seems the ‘Brent Vigilantes’ are back. Equities traded in a very narrow range after yesterday’s #HashCrash and eMini volumes were among the lowest of the year. An early afternoon ramp, aided by EURUSD, failed at overnight highs and collapsed back to VWAP as the machines were in charge once again. Treasuries rallied from early morning high yields ending the day lower in yield (TSY yields down 1-2bps on the week against a 30 point rally in the S&P!!) Durable goods dismal data just reinforced Europe’s donut and stirred the bad-is-good mantra as Trannies outperformed, but interestingly once again the Dow was unable to break above pre-Boston levels. FX markets were relatively calm for once as gold, silver, and copper all gained. VIX ended up for the day by 0.25vols at 13.75%.
WTI Crude on the resurgence – must be all the growthiness in the data – or simply the Brent Vigilantes back..
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Winnebago Industries, Inc. (NYSE: WGO)

Winnebago Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells recreation vehicles primarily for use in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. It manufactures motor homes, which are self-propelled mobile dwellings that provide living accommodations and include kitchen, dining, sleeping, and bath areas, as well as a lounge; and optional equipment accessories, such as generators, home theater systems, king-size beds, upholstery, and interior equipment. The company offers motor homes constructed directly on medium- and heavy-duty truck chassis, which include engine and drivetrain components; motor homes built on van-type chassis onto which the motor home manufacturer constructs a living area with access to the driver's compartment under the Winnebago and Itasca brand names; and panel-type vans with sleeping, kitchen, and/or toilet facilities under the Era brand name. It also manufactures travel trailers and fifth wheel towable products under the Winnebago and SunnyBrook brand names, as well as original equipment manufacturing parts, including extruded aluminum and other component products for other manufacturers and commercial vehicles. The company sells its products through independent dealers primarily in the United States and Canada. Winnebago Industries, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Forest City, Iowa.
Before discussing potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of WGO (Winnebago Industries, Inc) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of WGO (Winnebago Industries, Inc) WGO had been rallying for most of the last year until March. Over the last (4) months the stock has found support at the $18 level (blue). Last week the stock broke that $18 support. The breakdown occurred on a slight increase in volume, which should add validity to the breakdown.
The Tale of the Tape: WGO has broken its support at $18 and the stock should be moving lower. A short position could be entered on any rallies back up near $18 with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $18 would negate the forecast for a move lower.
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

David Stockman on the Corruption of Capitalism

About this week’s show:
-Rogue Central Bank
-Rigged markets
-Radically different world to follow
-Stockman’s latest book: Click here
About the Guest: David Alan Stockman is a former U.S. politician and businessman, serving as a Republican U.S. Representative from the state of Michigan and as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Read | Subscribe@iTunes
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Beer Maker's Breakout Signals It's an Immediate 'Buy': SAM

Large beer brewer such as Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD) and Molson Coors (NYSE: TAP) may have something to worry about concerning Americans' evolving tastes.

According to the Brewers Association, a trade association representing small and independent American brewers, in 2012, craft brewers' percentage of the U.S. beer market rose to 6.5%, up from 5.7% in 2011. This 15% year-over-year growth stands in stark contrast to the major brewers, which are experiencing flat growth and losing market share.

As craft brewers blossom, the big beer brewers appear to be faltering. In the last two quarters of reported earnings, for example, BUD had two straight negative earnings surprises, falling short of analysts' estimates by 7.9% and 5.1%.

The largest -- and arguably most successful -- U.S. craft brewer is Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM). While the maker of the popular Samuel Adams brand currently claims only 1% of the total U.S. beer market, it has about 20% market share in the craft beer arena. (more)

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Sinclair – Full-Blown Panic As People Ask “Where Is The Gold?”

kingworldnews.com / April 24, 2013
Today legendary trader Jim Sinclair warned King World News about the full-blown panic that has erupted in both the financial world, and the gold market as well, as people ask, “Where is the gold?”  Below is what Sinclair, who was once called on by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to assist during a Wall Street crisis, had to say in this remarkable interview.

Sinclair: “People have to understand what the motivation was for the recent takedown in the gold price.  It was so well organized, strategized, and executed by the gold banks, in unison, even though it has had the unintended consequence of creating a massive and worldwide buying frenzy in the physical gold market.

There is a comparison that is obvious today because I was very involved in the $1 billion loan which had to be made at the time that the Hunt’s positions went into default (in 1980).  This was at a time when Bache & Company, and Merrill Lynch were rumored to be at least on the fence, if not entirely insolvent.

You have to understand that back in 1980 when gold had risen to $887.50, and silver traded above $51 an ounce, the financial world was in a full-blown panic and many people firmly believed the dollar was going into oblivion.

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Net Asset Value Premiums of Certain Precious Metal Trusts and Funds – Record Asian Buying

jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com / By Jesse /
The Gold/Silver Ratio is now around 61.
And still hardly anyone is talking about silver in this recent market takedown.
The last chart shows a YTD comparison of gold and silver.  It shows what is meant when one says that ‘silver is more volatile.’  It tends to higher highs and lower lows as compared to gold.
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Investing in REITs Instead of Property: Our Pick

news.goldseek.com / By Dennis Miller
I get a lot of questions from readers about holding real estate as an investment. Indeed, many are in response to another newsletter editor who was recently advocating that the only way for retirees to make decent income was to own property.

Personally, I wouldn’t hold physical property in our portfolio for three reasons.
First, it’s very illiquid; that makes it an instant failure on our Five-Point Balancing Test.
Second, you won’t get yield from a property for three to five years, but will instead pay to own it.
And third, depending on the size of your portfolio, an investment in physical real estate could throw off your balance. Allocating too much of a portfolio to a single industry is never a good idea. With a piece of property worth $100K, $200K, or more, you can suddenly find your retirement very dependent on the outcome of a single asset class.

However, at the same time, it’s hard to ignore that something is happening in real estate. The post-crash taboo around it is starting to disappear as prices increase. Are we so bullish on real estate that we would buy properties in Las Vegas? No, we’re not there; but at the same time, we wouldn’t mind dipping our toe into the shallow end of the pool with some more conservative opportunities.
Furthermore, rather than invest in physical properties directly, we’d rather invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs), which are traded on stock exchanges like any other stock. REITs are corporations that buy, sell, and rent real estate for their shareholders.

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Wabash National Corporation (NYSE: WNC)

Wabash National Corporation engages in designing, manufacturing, and marketing standard and customized truck trailers, intermodal equipment, and transportation related products in North America. It operates in three segments: Commercial Trailer Products, Diversified Products, and Retail. The Commercial Trailer Products segment manufactures truck trailers; proprietary composite products; dry van trailers; standardized sheet and post, and refrigerated trailer products; and steel and aluminum flatbed, and dropdeck trailers. The Diversified Products segment focuses on diversifying its product offerings using intellectual technology. It offers complementary products to company's truck trailers and transportation equipment; AeroSkirt, an aerodynamic solution for over-the-road trailers; and customer-specific solutions to original equipment manufacturers and aftermarket customers. The Retail segment operates 12 retail branch locations, which sell new and used trailers, aftermarket parts, and services throughout the United States.
To review potential trading opportunities with Wabash's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of WNC (Wabash National Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of WNC (Wabash National Corporation) WNC formed a double top price pattern (red). Double tops are reversal patterns and are as simple as they sound: Rallying up to a point (T), selling off to a support, and then rallying back up again to approximately the same top (T). As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. WNC confirmed its pattern by breaking the $9 support (purple) that was created by the double top pattern.
Chart patterns can also provide price targets. Simply take the height of the overall pattern and add or subtract that amount to or from the breakout or breakdown point to get the minimum price objective. For example, since the double top pattern for WNC is $2 high ($11 - $9), WNC should fall to a minimum of $7 ($9 - $2). Chart pattern price targets are certainly not guarantees, but they are often fulfilled.
The Tale of the Tape: WNC has broken down from its double top and should be moving lower overall. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up to $9, while a long trade could be made if the stock were to break back above the $9 level.
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Low Gold Sentiment Means......

"Gold lately has had about as much luster as a rusty tin can," wrote Time magazine -- in August 1976.

"After that article was published," EverBank's Frank Trotter reminds us, "the yellow metal rallied about 600% in the following four years. I tell you this story because investors' sentiment toward precious metals is also terrible today."

Look no further, says Frank, than the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index. "It's a survey that shows what gold newsletter writers are telling their subscribers. Right now the index is showing a reading of 31% net short, a historical record low since the inception of the survey in 1997. This means the average gold newsletter adviser is recommending that clients and subscribers short gold with 31% of their portfolio. 

"Since 2000," Mr. Trotter continues, "this index has registered a reading below 20% only three other times. The chart below shows the performance of gold since 2002 and the readings of the index. As you can see, gold had a huge rally on all three of those occasions. 

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Investment Education 101: Compound Interest

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Goldman Closes Gold Short

zerohedge.com / By Tyler Durden / April 23, 2013,
It appears Goldman (together with virtually everyone else focused on physical not paper gold) has bought enough gold from its clients. Now, there is only upside.
Goldie on gold:
We closed our short trading recommendation on gold
We have closed our recommendation to short COMEX Gold, as prices moved above the stop at $1,400/toz. We have exited the trade significantly below our original target of $1,450/toz, for a potential gain of 10.4%. The move since initiation was surprisingly rapid, likely exacerbated by the break of well-flagged technical support levels. Our bias is to expect further declines in gold prices on the combination of continued ETF outflows as conviction in holding gold continues to wane as well as our economists’ forecast for a reacceleration in US growth later this year.
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Jim Sinclair: Get Out of the System Now! Significant Deposits & Retirement Accounts Are in Banksters’ Cross-Hairs!

Jim Sinclair has turned his sights from warning investors to protect themselves with gold to urgently warning them to exit the financial system immediately, and take possession of physical gold held in your own possession.   Sinclair, who Friday warned investors that the US will be Cyprus’d and gold will reach $50,000/oz sent an email alert to subscribers Monday night warning that merely owning gold and storing is not enough, and that:
How you own and store becomes of critical and possibly terminal importance. Investors with significant deposits at in the system banks and brokers are in the dead center of harm’s way. Retirement accounts are also in the cross hairs of central planners.
Sinclair urges readers not to become a casualty of the central planners via the coming bail-in deposit confiscations, but to protect yourself by owning physical gold held outside of the financial system.
Read More @ Silver Doctors
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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

"Dow 16,000": What you should know about this weekend's big bullish prediction

"The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years."

"Dow 16000!" Barron's Magazine Big Money Poll, April 20, 2013

A few reminders…

"Still Bullish! (Dow 13000)" Barron’s Magazine Big Money Poll, May 1, 2000

The May 2000 Big Money Poll was published with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10733.91. The Dow had already peaked nearly a thousand points higher in January of 2000, and would go on to lose about 40% of its value in the 2000-2002 bear market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq faring far worse.

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Delek US Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DK)

Delek US Holdings, Inc. operates as an integrated downstream energy company that operates in petroleum refining, logistics, and convenience store retailing businesses. The company operates in three segments: Refining, Logistics, and Retail. The Refining segment owns and operates two refineries in Tyler, Texas, and El Dorado, Arkansas; and produces various petroleum-based products used in transportation and industrial markets. The Logistics segment gathers, transports, and stores crude oil, as well as markets, distributes, transports, and stores refined products. This segment serves oil companies, independent refiners and marketers, jobbers, distributors, utility and transportation companies, and independent retail fuel operators. The Retail segment markets gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products, as well as convenience merchandise.
Delek's stock is forming a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. Please take a look at the 1-year chart of DK (Delek US Holdings, Inc) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of DK (Delek US Holdings, Inc) DK finally broke out through its $27 resistance area in January and rallied higher as expected. Over the last (3) months the stock has created a very important level at $35 (navy), which is also the “neckline” support for DK's H&S pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (blue). Confirmation of the H&S would occur if the stock broke below its $35 support. If DK breaks that level, the stock should move lower from there.
The Tale of the Tape: DK seems to have formed a head & shoulders pattern. Although a trader could go long at $35 expecting a bounce, the stock's pattern implies an eventual breakdown. If that happens, a short trade should be entered on a break of the $35 level.

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Maguire – Elaborates On The LBMA Default & Ensuing Panic

kingworldnews.com / April 22, 2013
Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News, providing even more details by elaborating on the events surrounding the LBMA default.  Maguire, who recently appeared in the extraordinary CBC production titled, “The Secret World of Gold,” also told KWN about the ensuing panic which has taken place in the aftermath of the LBMA default.  Maguire described entities as “panicking.”  Below is what Maguire had to say in part II of his remarkable and exclusive interview.
Eric King:  “Inside that piece (“The Secret World of Gold”) you talked about gold leasing and the mechanics of that.  Jim Sinclair wanted me to bring that up to you, the gold leasing, the mechanics of it, can you talk about that?”
Maguire:  “We did a piece on King World News about it, about the LBMA bullion bank default.  Stepping back, how did they get to such a mismatched (trading) position where they had so little gold and silver in their inventory to be able to back up people coming and asking for their gold and silver?  They never anticipated that this would happen….
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Investment Education 101: Introduction to compound interest

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Double Top Forming In US Dollar?

The Dollar looks to have put in a DCL right in the timing band.  The 12 day decline into the low has more than provided the consolidation needed to confirm the low and recharge the Cycle.  This was fairly evident today with the Dollar rocketing out of its Cycle Low with an impressive 0.80 move.
The Dollar is an interesting Cycle to study here because there are some varying scenarios that could be unfolding.  Firstly, it’s pretty clear on the chart that the Dollar is sporting a Daily Cycle failure.  Typically such a failure means that the dominant Cycle is now in decline, in this case it’s the Investor Cycle.  This isn’t an unreasonable expectation; the Investor Cycle is on Week 11 and in the timing band for a top.

It’s important to understand that a Cycle failure does not have to mean a Cycle in decline though.  Generally they are telling of future weak price action, but there are no hard and fast rules in Cycles around these failures.  So for this reason, an Investor Cycle decline does not need to occur imminently or from a new Left Translated Cycle.
But at this point with a Daily Cycle failure and a Week 11 Investor Cycle, we should be on the lookout for a new Cycle that tops fairly early.  The logical top or turn would be after a move to a double top (83.50) or a quick burst to new highs.
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A Visual History Of All Asset Bubbles

Maybe not all, but certainly the vast majority of the most popular asset bubbles since before even the Tulip Mania of 1637 (including the Kipper and Wipper currency debasement of the German 30 years War, circa 1621, which is appropriately enough deja vu in contemporary retrospect, only the war is missing). While it may be worth noting that all the bubbles to the right of center have been central-bank induced (except for that amulet bubble of 2006, although even that is likely debatable), we will not note it as it is quite obvious even without us highlighting this simple fact. One can only imagine what would happen to asset prices - all of them - when the world's central banks, which are now collectively and voluntarily "all in" on reflating the biggest asset bubble of all time across all asset classes, decide to close the liquidity spigots (if ever).

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U.S. Equity Market Radar (April 22, 2013)

U.S. Equity Market Radar (April 22, 2013)
The S&P 500 suffered its worst losses of the year, falling by more than 2 percent this week. A combination of factors was the likely culprit. Chinese GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter, with investors remaining skeptical that China will be able to grow as fast as expected for 2013 with a relatively slow start to the year. Gold sold off sharply on Monday after a big drop on Friday in what appeared to be a market dislocation that was difficult for even seasoned investors in the space to explain. This sharp selloff in gold spilled over to other markets as investors feared it was a precursor to financial market volatility to come. Defensive groups outperformed, while more cyclical areas were hit the hardest.
  • The telecommunication services sector was the leader this week as Sprint Nextel rose by more than 15 percent on a takeout offer from Dish Network.
  • The utility sector also outperformed as investors appreciated the stability and dividends that utilities offer.
  • Sprint Nextel was the best performer this week as discussed above but Life Technologies rose by more than 8 percent on a takeout offer from Thermo Fisher Scientific.  (more)
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Monday, April 22, 2013

Gold Falling to $800?: Gold-CPI Ratio Says Yes

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Switzerland Revises 1934 Banking Act to Allow Bail-in Deposit Confiscations!

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has quietly joined the growing parade of western nations who have quietly re-written banking laws to allow depositor bail-ins upon the next banking crisis.
If Switzerland, the once ultimate safe haven for banking deposits across the world is preparing to confiscate depositors funds, there truly is no protection anywhere other than physical gold and silver in your own possession!
In the event that a bank is failing or where its capitalization is no longer adequate, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (“FINMA”) may take measures to improve such bank’s financial viability rather than liquidating it. “Loss absorption” and “bail-in” are important instruments to support any such measures. (more)
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Buyers Of Physical Silver - Here Is A Key Chart For You

Today top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick’s team sent King World News four tremendous charts covering the key markets of silver, crude oil, copper and the FTSE Mining Index.  One of the charts is especially important for the silver bulls.  KWN is pleased to share this information with with our global readers.  Below is what top Citi analyst Fitzpatrick’s team had to say in their latest report, along with four powerful charts.

Fitzpatrick’s Team: “The present set up on Brent and Nymex both suggest that lower levels in the oil price are a danger in the weeks ahead.  The spread chart between the two further suggests that Brent may continue to underperform (as it has done recently). 

Copper also looks set for further losses.  That target corresponds closely to the converged 200-month moving average (which we hit in 2008), and rising trend line support off that 2008 low (196.5-198.5).

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Do Charts Say Big Correction Coming?

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Commodity slump ripples run through global economy

Lower airfares, cheaper food and rising profit margins are among the benefits that should flow from tumbling oil and commodity prices - but only after a long lead time.

Having poured $400 billion into commodities over the past decade, many investors are now selling. Their confidence that risky assets could only float higher on a rising tide of cheap central bank money has crumbled as the global economy fails to respond to the stimulus.

Even China, an important buyer of natural resources, is slowing. Inflation, against which gold in particular is a classic hedge, is falling nearly everywhere.

Price pressures will ease further if natural resources keep falling. That is bad news for exporters such as Saudi Arabia and Brazil but good news for net importers. (more)

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How to Be Financially Prepared for a Crisis

Most people don’t have a disaster plan, including the wealthy—who are used to having things go their way. The WSJ’s Deborah Kan and Wei Gu talk about how to be prepared without being paranoid.

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
MONDAY, April 22
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index March      
10 am Existing home sales March   5.03 mln 4.98 mln
TUESDAY, April 23
9 am Market flash PMI April   -- 54.6
9 am FHFA home price index Feb.   -- 6.5% y-o-y
10 am New home sales March   421,000 411,000
8:30 am Durable goods orders March   -4.0% 5.6%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 4/20
351,000 352,000 
FRIDAY, April 26
8:30 am GDP 1Q   3.0% 0.4%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment April
72.3 72.3
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Saturday, April 20, 2013

NatGas Spikes To 21-Month High, Market Must Loosen To Prevent Winter Surge To $8

Natural gas rose to near $4.40/mmbtu today after the Energy Information Administration reported that operators injected 31 billion cubic feet into storage last week, below the 33 to 38 bcf build most analysts were expecting.

The injection was above last year’s build of 23 bcf, but below the five-year average build of 41 bcf.

In turn, inventories now stand at 1,704 bcf, which is 797 bcf below the year-ago level and 69 bcf below the five-year average (calculated using a slightly different methodology than the EIA). (more)

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7,000 Tons of Gold Bullion Removed from Fort Knox From 1973-74!

We have discovered the manuscript of a 1981 article by The Globe which reported that 7,000 tons of gold bullion were removed from Fort Knox from $1973-74, and the only bullion that remained was from melted down gold coins & was of such poor quality (at least 10% copper) that it would not be accepted on the open market by any nation.
“300 truckloads of bullion were simply driven away.” 

 The American Gold Commission in Washington will this week begin an examination of Treasury documents to decide whether 7000 tons of gold, enough to fill 300 lorries, has been stolen from Fort Knox, the world’s biggest and most protected bullion store.
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