Saturday, June 7, 2014

SocGen 10-Year Outlook: 100% Chance Of Recession; S&P To 4,000 Or... 500

No matter what, SocGen sees US equity performance over the next 10 years as modest at best. They note that US equities face three headwinds: cyclically-adjusted valuations (CAPE, starting date 1881) have returned to very expensive territory, corporate margins stand at historically high levels, and after already five years of growth from the 2009 trough, we estimate that the probability of another recession kicking in is close to 100% within the forecast timeframe (the longest cycle ever was 120 months, or 10 years). While their central case is 'moderate growth and inflation', they project a possible high growth surge to 4000 for the S&P 500 and a deflation scenario which would put the S&P 500 at 500 (-12% per annum) (more)

Please share this article

How We Made Our Millions

Is the question that everyone wants an answer to. What is the secret to extraordinary success? Is it grit, is it determination, luck, or is it who you actually know? Peter Jones has been in business now for some thirty years and he can tell you that all successful entrepreneurs share a few unique qualities, certain traits that give them the upper hand. But what are they and can they be learned?
He's on a mission to find out what drives Britain's best entrepreneurs and uncover the human side that determines their success or failure. He wants them to reveal their individual recipes for success so he can discover just how they made their millions. Success in business isn't a fine science. Peter Jones has turned tiny startups into a multi-million pound companies but not all of his ventures have succeeded. Business is tough. But he always believed there are certain factors that can give us all a fighting chance. He's on a journey to get inside the minds of two of the country's top business people and he's hoping to discover the ways in which the most unlikely characters become multi-millionaires.
Peter will be spending time with Richard Reed, founder of a smoothie company with a 165 million pound turnover, and Michelle Mone, the self-made inspiration behind a multi-million pound lingerie business and who, according to the rich list, is worth 50 million pounds. Have they both followed the same blueprint to success or is it their difference that matters most?
Richard is leading a new wave of entrepreneurs who have embraced a business style pioneered in the US by companies like Google. He believes that if his employees feel at home they'll be extra productive. But despite opting for open collar Peter still felt overdressed. Richard has set up the fruit company in 1999 with fellow graduates and today he sells over two million bottles of smoothies a week.
Please share this article

The Platinum Supply Shock

The Real Asset Co

As Peter Schiff points out below, you would have had to have been a fairly bad investor to have missed the ongoing issues in the platinum market in the last year or so.
We have long been reporting on the industrial action currently taking place in South Africa’s platinum and palladium mines. This round of strikes has been going on for over four months now and there is little sign of them abating.
Whilst the platinum price is likely to climb whenever the four month strike comes to an end, it is not likely to be pushed down for too low given how long it will take for production to kick back into action.
But, as with gold and its reaction to Crimea, it is difficult to base an investment decision on something that is likely to be temporary. However, as Peter Schiff soon explains, the fundamentals for platinum this year are just too good to miss out on.
Continue Reading at…
Please share this article

Head & Shoulders in Russell2000

Over the last few weeks I’ve been getting an unusual amount of emails about a head and shoulders pattern in the small-cap Russell2000 Index. I think today is as good a time as ever to address this possibility.
First of all, the Russell2000 has to be considered to be in an uptrend until it starts to make lower lows. We don’t have that yet. But here is the daily chart showing what some chart readers might call a potential head and shoulders topping pattern. I want to reiterate that this is just a potential pattern since confirmation does not come until the neckline is broken.
6-6-14 rut h and s
We can see the shape of this formation taking place with the left shoulder in January, Head in March and the “right shoulder” is being put in as we speak. All of this is only worth discussing at a cocktail party, and there’s no reason to act on it until the neckline around 1080 is broken.  (more)

Please share this article

New Energy Report From I.E.A. Forecasts A Decline In North American Oil Supply / June 4, 2014
A new report from The I.E.A. predicts the United States will have to rely more heavily on Middle East oil in the coming years, as North American sources start to dry up putting more bargaining power back in the hands of OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
This is quite interesting, given that in 2012, the IEA forecast that the U.S. would overtake Saudi Arabia in oil production by 2020, and would be a net oil exporter by 2030.
SRSrocco:  This is an important article on the complete about-face of the so-called U.S.Energy Independence.  I believe the world will be a much different place by the end of the decade.
New Energy Report From I.E.A. Forecasts Decline In North American Oil Supply
by David MacLeod at Integral Permaculture
NPR’s Business News starts with the outlook for oil. This is a change of course – the International Energy Agency has released a report on global energy investment. And this group predicts the United States will have to rely more heavily on Middle East oil in the coming years, as North American sources start to dry up a little bit. U.S. energy production has boomed recently, much of it coming from oil and gas extracted from shale. But the IEA says U.S. production will start to lose steam around 2020, and that would put more bargaining power back in the hands of OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia.
Please share this article