Saturday, February 28, 2015

Regulus Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ: RGLS)

Regulus Therapeutics Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of drugs that target microRNAs for the treatment of various diseases in the United States. The company uses its microRNA product platform to develop anti-miRs, which is chemically modified and single-stranded oligonucleotide. The company has strategic collaboration with Biogen Idec MA Inc. for the evaluation of the use of microRNA signatures as a biomarker for human patients with multiple sclerosis; AstraZeneca AB to discover and develop microRNA therapeutics for cardiovascular diseases, metabolic diseases, and oncology; and GlaxoSmithKline plc to discover and develop microRNA therapeutics for immuno-inflammatory diseases. It also has strategic collaboration with Sanofi for the discovery and development of microRNA therapeutics comprising miR-21 pre-clinical fibrosis program for the treatment of alport syndrome and preclinical program for oncology indications.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Regulus (Nasdaq: RGLS) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Regulus (Nasdaq: RGLS)
RGLS had steadily went nowhere from April until mid-October. Then, the stock jumped massively on route to hitting a new high just above $25. Since that time, the stock has created an obvious resistance at $20 (green). A break above that $20 level should mean higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: RGLS has a key level of resistance at $20. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $20.
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Is Rob McEwen Looking To Buy?

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Biggest Monthly Gain Since October 2011

Click to view

The markets had much to consider this week, most notably Fed Chair Yellen's semi-annual congressional testimony on Tuesday and Thursday and today's updates on Consumer Sentiment and GDP. The S&P 500 showed relatively little reaction to any of this week's economic events, trading within a microscopic 0.79% range from its intraday low on Monday to its intraday high on Wednesday (which was also its record high). Today's -0.30% closing loss trimmed the February monthly gain to a whopping 5.49%, the biggest monthly gain since October of 2011, 40 months ago, when the index rose 10.77%.
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Is This The Greatest Threat To The World?

Is This The Greatest Threat To The World? / February 27, 2015
With the Dow near 18,200, crude oil still below $50 and gold on the move, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece warning about one of the greatest threats to the world that would violently impact every major market and individual around the globe.
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Chicago PMI Crashes to 5 1/2 Year Low: Production, New Orders, Backlogs Suffer Double Digit Declines / Mike “Mish” Shedlock  / February 27, 2015
Fourth quarter GDP was revised lower today to 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent previously estimated.
Looking ahead, I think we are going to see some shocking downward estimates in the months to come. Meanwhile, a shocking PMI report came out today.
Chicago PMI Crashes to 5 1/2 Year Low
ISM Chicago reports Chicago Business Barometer At 5½-Year Low
The Chicago Business Barometer plunged 13.6 points to 45.8 in February, the lowest level since July 2009 and the first time in contraction since April 2013. The sharp fall in business activity in February came as Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Employment all suffered double digit losses, leaving them below the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion.
New Orders suffered the largest monthly decline on record, leaving them at the lowest since June 2009. Lower order intake and output levels led to a double digit decline in Employment which last month increased markedly to a 14-month high.
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Outlook for December 15 Corn Futures

As the winter moves on towards Spring and U.S. farmers begin to gear up for the 2015 planting season, my sense is there is very little downside price risk to new crop corn futures over the next couple of months.  Over the past six weeks December 2015 corn futures have traded in a sideways pattern between $4.00 and $4.20 per bu.  This is the lowest level for December futures during this period since 2010.  Granted there are valid reasons for prices to be this low relative to recent years.  Following last year's record yield and record production, U.S. corn supplies are currently projected to exceed 1.8 billion bu. by the time new crop supplies are available this fall, a nine year high. In addition, global stocks are expected to build to nearly 190 million metric tons, which is a 15 year high. (more)

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Friday, February 27, 2015

SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) Stock Could Soar 60% as the Bulls Come Back Around

Boom or bust. Those are the contrasting views investors seem to hold for clean energy provider SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY). The company -- and its business model -- have been fodder for both bull and bears.

Right now, it looks like the bears are holding sway, as shares of this controversial stock have plunged 40% in the past year. Yet, I believe the bulls will have the last laugh. (more)

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3 Ridiculously Strong “Redneck Stocks”: Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), Tractor Supply Co. (NASDAQ:TSCO), Home Depot (NYSE:HD)

Alright Bubba, hop in your pickup truck and crank up the Patsy Cline.
Because you’re going places, my friend…
The middle class in rural America is coming back—the same folks who were hit hardest by the Great Recession. And it represents one of the largest (and most profitable) market trends today.
In fact, you can ride this wave for an easy double-digit gain…
What’s causing it? Cheap gas, low interest rates and rising wages. That means the good ol’ boys have more cash in their pockets. And companies catering to them are taking off.
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Bonanza Creek Energy Inc (NYSE: BCEI)

Bonanza Creek Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an independent energy company in the United States. The company is primarily engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of onshore oil and natural gas assets in the Wattenberg Field in Colorado and the Dorcheat Macedonia Field in Southern Arkansas. It also owns and operates oil-producing assets in the North Park Basin in Colorado; and the McKamie Patton Field in Southern Arkansas.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Bonanza (NYSE: BCEI) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Bonanza (NYSE: BCEI)
For the most part, BCEI has been trending lower for the last 7 months. However, during the most recent 4 months the stock has had a tendency to create key price levels at the increments of $5 (blue). For example, the current level of resistance is $30. Next, you can see that $35 was the previous support back in October and November, while recently the $20 and $25 levels have both been hit as either support or resistance.

The Tale of the Tape: BCEI is approaching its key level of $30. A long trade could be made on a break above that level with a stop placed under it. A short trade could be made at $30 with the expectation of a fall down to the next $5 level at $25.
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German Bank Predicts Apple AAPL Stock Tumbles Over 50% As Shares Roundtrip To $60 / by Tyler Durden on 02/26/2015 15:15
When it comes to the sellside putting up ludicrous upside price targets on any stock, and especially cult-favorite Apple, the media world is all smiles: after all, with AAPL once again the defining stock of the Nasdaq, and on many low volume days determining how the entire S&P trades, what can go wrong if everyone is invested in one company (and according to Goldman, most hedge funds already are). However, dare to suggest that the price of a company whose forward earnings multiple has more than doubled in the past two years, is massively overbought and prepare to suffer the full wrath of the Apple Borg collective, also known by the NSA as zombies who are paying customers.
Which is why few if any ever dare to go against the wisdom, or madness, of the crowd. After all, there is safety in numbers, and if one analyst is wrong (on Apple or anything else for that matter) they will all be wrong, so there will be no individual blame (one of the main reasons why nobody has gone to prison over the first Great Financial Crisis).
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Thursday, February 26, 2015

One Of The Greatest Danger Signals Is Now Flashing RED!

Today one of the greatest danger signals is flashing RED!
DANGER – From Investors Intelligence:  “A major worry is now signaled from the spread between the bulls and bears. It jumped to 45.4%. Differences over 30% are a worry and above 40% signal major caution.” (see chart below)
Sentiment Chart

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The 10 Highest Dividend Yields in the S&P/TSX 60: BCE, CM, CPG, CVE, PBA, TAC, ARX, BCE, IPL, NA, PPL,TA

Once upon a time, you actually received interest when you lent out money—but now everything has changed.
Today, in Europe at least, investors have to pay for the privilege of lending money to the government. Bond yields in a number of countries—including France, Germany, and Switzerland—are now negative.
That’s why dividend stocks can be so tantalizing. If you can build a portfolio that yields 4% to 6%, you’re well on your way to generating respectable income. (more)

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Chen Lin – Using Austrian Economics to Make Money

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The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming “Recession” / by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2015 16:53
While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in factLumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling – breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well…
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Has the China RRR cut put a bottom in copper?

In a week of reports from major mining companies including Rio Tinto, Market Analyst Jasper Lawler looks at the outlook for copper given the recent sharp decline in prices and the action taken by the Chinese central bank.
Jasper covers
• The difficulty of China’s economic transition
• Improved production at mining companies
• The sharp sell-off in copper in January and subsequent rebound
• The impact of Chinese fiscal and monetary policy
• The impact of the USD and oil prices on copper
Copper rebounded from 5 ½ year lows last week to record its biggest weekly gain since August on the back of new stimulus measures in China and a rebound in oil prices.(more)

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Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Time To Buy Russia? RSX, RSXJ, ERUS

Yes, Russia has a litany of negatives against it — from stagflation and recession, to open conflict with neighboring countries, economic sanctions, ratings agency downgrades, a sharply declining currency, and a megalomaniacal leader.
So you might be wary. But Russian market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are among the best performers year to date. They’re up 20% — and 40% from lows in December. These kinds of returns show the value of thinking outside the box as an investor, and going against the crowd.
But it’s still not too late to buy Russia.(more)

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Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX)

Time Warner Inc. operates as a media and entertainment company in the United States and internationally. The company operates in four segments: Turner, Home Box Office, Warner Bros., and Time Inc. The Turner segment operates cable networks; digital media properties; free-to-air networks; and entertainment and news networks that offer sports, movies, classic films, reality programming, and news. The Home Box Office segment provides premium pay and basic tier television services comprising HBO and Cinemax; and sells its original programming via DVDs, Blu-ray Discs, and electronic sell-through. The Warner Bros. segment produces and distributes feature films, television programming, videogames, and other programming; distribute home video products; and licenses rights to its feature films, television programming, and characters. The Time Inc. segment publishes magazines, including People, Sports Illustrated, InStyle, Time, Real Simple, Southern Living, Entertainment Weekly, and Fortune, as well as titles and books; licenses its magazines for print or digital publication to publishers; operates Websites, such as,, and
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Warner (NYSE: TWX) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Warner (NYSE: TWX)
Minus the gaps higher and lower last summer, TWX has been on a steady trend higher from its April low. Twice over that time the stock has hit that same resistance at $87.50 (red) and pulled back down significantly both times. The stock seems to be on its way back up there, and if TWX can finally break through that $87.50 resistance the stock should be headed higher. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: TWX has a 52-week resistance at $87.50. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Internet Stocks & Natural Gas

I’ve really liked the Internet Index, as you guys know, and these stocks continue to rock n roll. But now I want to turn our attention more specifically to the Social Media space. I think these are the next ones to rip. We briefly discussed the major US averages which I continue to like. I said in the video that the target for the Dow Jones Transportation Index was up near 4760, I meant 9760 obviously. I apologize for that. Finally we discuss Natural Gas as well. I think the risk/reward here very much favors the bulls. I went over all the reasons today with Frances.

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Realty Income (NYSE: O) The Only Income Stock I’d Own ‘Forever’

Realty Income (NYSE: O) reported fourth-quarter earnings last week, missing analyst funds from operations (FFO) estimates by a penny.
Revenues came in at $248 million, actually beating analyst estimates of $230 million by a pretty wide margin.
And you know what? I could really care less what Realty Income did last quarter. Realty Income’s quarterly numbers don’t matter to me. At all. And I say this as a long-term holder of the stock.  (more)

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Gold Still in a Bear Market, But Don’t Lose Hope

We talked with the Gold and Oil Guy today, Chris Vermeulen. He says that Gold is still in a bear market, like it has been for the past three years. There’s an opportunity to pick up a quick profit when it rebounds from its current plunge, but don’t be fooled. It’s all setting up very nicely for the ultimate bull market that’s getting closer. Same with the much maligned Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX:V), which is at record lows due to its composition of miners and resource companies. Chris believes that when it comes back, it will come back very big, so consider the ETF. Chris is very bearish on Oil and doesn’t see it for quite some time, so don’t chase it lower. Believe the technicals, not your heart. Chris also runs an automated trading system that can trade for you on autopilot.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Copper: A Bullish Sign for This Beaten-Down Commodity

Last month, I told you about the ugliest chart in the market.
Copper was sitting precariously close to an important long-term support level. If it broke down, I said it could lead to a sharp decline.
That's exactly what happened.
The price of the metal has fallen 13% so far this year.
But now, the "ugliest chart in the market" is starting to look a little better...
Take a look at this updated weekly chart of copper...
As I said, the price of copper has fallen 13% so far this year. And looking just at this weekly chart, the metal could fall further from here before hitting support at about $2.20 per pound. (more)
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The Real Crisis Will Not Be In Stocks… It Will Be In Bonds

by Graham Summers
Gold Seek

The mainstream financial media likes to focus on stocks because:
1) The stories are a lot sexier than bonds or currencies
2) They make for better hype jobs than bonds or currencies
If your job is to sit in front of a camera selling the notion of getting rich from investing, you’re not going to talk about bonds or currencies (maybe the latter is of interest but only with insane amounts of leverage which usually bankrupts a trader in his or her first trade).
However, today stocks are in fact a very minor story. They are, in a sense, the investing equivalent of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.
Continue Reading at…
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Diverging Developments in Oil Markets vs. Energy Shares

by Walter
Sober Look

Let’s take a look at the recent developments in the US energy markets and the seemingly contradictory reaction by equity investors.
First of all, while we continue to see significant declines in the US rig count (both oil and gas), …
[...] … American crude oil production remains at record levels and still rising. It’s going to take time for this momentum to turn.
Continue Reading at…
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Sangamo Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ: SGMO)

Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of zinc finger DNA-binding proteins for gene regulation and gene modification in the United States. The company has collaboration and license agreements with Shire International GmbH and Biogen Idec Inc.; and strategic partnerships with Sigma-Aldrich Corporation, Dow AgroSciences, LLC, Open Monoclonal Technology, Inc., F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, and Hoffmann-La Roche Inc. Sangamo Biosciences, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Richmond, California.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Sangamo (Nasdaq: SGMO) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Sangamo (Nasdaq: SGMO)
Other than the steep decline in March and April, SGMO has been trending primarily sideways over the last year. During that time stock has created an obvious resistance level at $17 (red). A break above that $17 level should mean higher prices for the stock.
The Tale of the Tape: SGMO has a key level of resistance at $17. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $17.
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The Long Road To Avoiding Grexit / by Tyler Durden on 02/23/2015 11:44
While Friday’s ‘agreement’ to agree to agreeing a deal that would be agreeable between The Eurogroup (and its ‘Institutions’) and Greece was heralded by the markets as a success for avoiding a Greek Exit (Grexit), there are numerous hurdles left in the next few months that could derail this process and bring about the re-introduction of the Drachma. As Deutsche Bank concludes, Greece’s (reluctant) request for a bailout extension is the first step in what is likely to be a difficult path to compromise
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Monday, February 23, 2015

Greece Should Leave Eurozone? – Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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Ross Clark – Equity Markets. Greece. Ross Kay – Real Estate Bubble in Canada? February 21, 2015

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Commercial Traders Are The Most Long 30Y Treasuries In A Year

Via Gavekal Capital blog,
Over the last five years the signal given by investor positioning in options and futures contracts on the 30-year treasury bond has proven prescient. Each time commercial traders have moved to a long position in the long bond rates have been near a peak. Over the last few weeks the commercials have shifted their positioning dramatically, moving from one of the largest short positions to a net long position for the first time in almost a year.

If history is a guide then we may be near an intermediate term peak in rates.
Zero Hedge
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PAREXEL International Corporation (NASDAQ: PRXL)

PAREXEL International Corporation, a biopharmaceutical outsourcing services company, provides clinical research, clinical logistics, medical communications, consulting, commercialization, and advanced technology products and services for pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Clinical Research Services (CRS), PAREXEL Consulting Services (PC), and PAREXEL Informatics (PI).
Take a look at the 1-year chart of PAREXEL (Nasdaq: PRXL) below with added notations:
1-year chart of PAREXEL (Nasdaq: PRXL)
PRXL was on a steady trend higher from April up until its $64, September high. After that, the stock has hit that same $64 (blue) mark several times only to end up eventually pulling back down. If PRXL can finally break through that $64 resistance the stock should be headed higher. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: PRXL has a 52-week resistance at $64. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) The Only Tech Stock You’ll Ever Need

It’s an investors dream to have a winning portfolio comprised entirely of a single stock…
While a diversified collection of companies is in your best interest as a long-term investor, what we really want are the “silver bullets” that can beat the broader market on a consistent basis. (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Jan.   -- 0.39 (3-month)
10 am Existing home sales Jan.   4.95 mln 5.04 mln
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Dec.   -- 4.7% y-o-y
10 am Consumer confidence index Feb.   99.0 102.9
10 am Janet Yellen testimony at Senate        
10 am New home sales Jan.   465,000 481,000
10 am Janet Yellen testimony at House        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Feb. 19
295,000 283,000 
8:30 am Consumer price index Jan.   -0.7% -0.3%
8:30 am Core CPI Jan.   0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Durable goods orders Jan.
0.5% -3.3%
9 am FHFA home price index Dec.   -- 5.3% y-o-y
8:30 am GDP revision 4Q   2.0% 2.6%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Feb.   -- 59.4
9:55 am Consumer sentiment Feb.   93.8 93.6
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Saturday, February 21, 2015

IGI Laboratories, Inc. (AMEX: IG)

IGI Laboratories, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets topical formulations in the United States. The company sells its generic topical pharmaceutical products under the IGI label. It also develops, manufactures, fills, and packages topical semi-solid and liquid products for branded and generic pharmaceutical customers, as well as for over-the-counter (OTC) and cosmetic markets. The company’s products are used in various applications from cosmetics and cosmeceuticals to the prescription treatment of conditions, such as dermatitis, psoriasis, and eczema.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of IGI (AMEX: IG) below with added notations:
1-year chart of IGI (AMEX: IG)
IG rallied from February into December before finally stalling at around $11. The stock has hit that $11 mark again several times this month. If IG can retest the $11 level once more (red) the stock may finally look to break through. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.
The Tale of the Tape: IG has a 52-week resistance at $11. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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Dr. Kent Moors: Low Oil Prices Not Sustainable

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The Symmetrical Triangle Breakout And The U.S. Dollar Index

The 20% appreciation in the U.S. Dollar Index has decimated many commodities. For example Crude Oil is down 60% from the June highs, while Gold, Silver and Platinum are down approximately 25%.  Before you go bottom picking in these volatile commodities, let us first update the current technical condition of the U.S. Dollar Index. It is important to remember that when trading industrial commodities and precious metals it is essential to watch the level of the U.S. dollar, since commodities often move inversely to the price movements of the greenback.

Chart provided by QST
The Symmetrical Triangle
This pattern is identified by drawing two trend lines that connect a series of sequentially lower peaks and a series of sequentially higher lows. Both trend lines act as barriers that, at least temporarily, prevent the price from heading higher or lower. However, once the price breaches one of these levels, a sharp movement often follows. A symmetrical triangle is generally regarded as a period of consolidation that takes place before the price moves beyond one of the identified trend lines. A break below the lower trend line is used by technical traders to indicate a move lower, while a break above the upper trend line signals the beginning of a move upward. In addition, it is important to monitor volume levels when the breakout occurs because a substantial increase in volume tends to add validity to the break out signal. Please refer to the chart for our key technical levels.   
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Neustar Inc (NYSE: NSR)

NeuStar, Inc. provides real-time information services and analytics worldwide. It develops unique solutions using proprietary, third-party and client data sets. The company serves marketing and security functions in the communications, financial services, media and advertising, retail and e-commerce, Internet, and technology industries. Neustar’s integrated marketing solution enhances clients’ ability to acquire and retain valuable customers across disparate platforms. It offers marketing services, including customer intelligence services that provide scientific, cloud-based solutions to identify, verify, and segment existing and potential customers in real-time for marketing solutions, and fraud and risk mitigation; activation services, which enable online display ad targeting of prospect audiences and customers; and campaign conversion analytics that enable clients to measure advertising effectiveness.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Neustar (NYSE: NSR) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Neustar (NYSE: NSR)
NSR has been trading mostly sideways over the last 10 months while repeatedly finding support at $24 (green) whenever that level has been approached. Now that the stock is there again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $24 support were to break, much lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: NSR has a key level of support at $24. A trader could enter a long position at $24 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.
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Chinese Oil Re-Stocking Is Over: Inbound VLCCs Drop To 5-Month Lows

In October 2014, we noted the massive surge (amid a slowing economy) in VLCCs bound for China as they began rebuilding their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, buying the newly low priced crude providing ‘artificial’ demand not reflective of actual current activity. Crude prices continued to drop and China-bound tankers remained high. But, as Bloomberg notes, this week saw the number of supertankers heading to China drop to 62 – the lowest since September 19th (before China began its restocking efforts) – strongly suggesting that ‘artificial demand’ has been removed from the global oil market.
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Hyperinflation To Start in 2015: Economist Says Get Supplies : “Gold, Silver, Canned Goods, Toilet Paper, Bottled Water…” / Mac Slavo /
It’s impossible to predict when and how our economy will finally reach a breaking point, but according to contrarian Shadow Stats economist John Williams  it’s coming one way or the other.
The only thing we can do now is to prepare for it and that means stockpiling critical supplies, just like you might for an earthquake or snowstorm, but in larger quantities.
Because, if and when hyperinflation starts people will quickly realize that their dollars are worthless. And as we have seen time and again, and most recently in Russia, when a currency rapidly loses its value the public will have no option but to panic buy everything that isn’t nailed down in an effort to unload their diminishing purchasing power before their currency is completely worthless.
This means, as John Williams notes in the following interview with Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog, that food and other essential supplies will disappear within a matter of hours.

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Friday, February 20, 2015

Does This Signal A Major Collapse Is Near? / February 19, 2015
With the port disputes creating major problems on both the east and west coasts of the United States, today King World News is featuring a piece that issues a dire warning about the consequences this will have for the future, including further economic collapse.
Do Major Port Disuptes Signal A Collapse Is Near?
By David Lee
February 19 (King World News) – I have so many friends in the business who are complaining about all their containers stuck at the port.  They can’t deliver goods to their clients such as Walmart, Target, Amazon, Overstock, Ebay, etc.  Everybody has come to a complete halt.
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Disaster-Proof Your Portfolio... With Huge Upside Potential

The global monetary system could be on the brink of disaster...
Some experts say world governments have borrowed too much money... which will cause a financial crisis and send currencies plummeting in value.
So how can you protect yourself?
By owning "gold in the ground"...
Gold has been used as money for thousands of years. It has maintained its purchasing power because governments can't print it. If paper currencies collapse, gold will still hold value. (more)
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Oil Crash to $10? – Danielle Park

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Biotech Stocks Are Steamrolling Everything in their Path

Hey, I see you sitting there at your computer like a wimp, with your pumpkin spice latte and lilac crème crepe. Put ‘em away.
It’s time to get to work…
Today you’re hopping on a good ole fashioned steamroller for an honest day’s pay. Your job is to turn every underperforming industry and market sector into pancakes…
So grab your lunch pail, put on a hard hat and get ready to roll, my man. It’s time to flatten financials…utilities…and industrial stocks. They’re dragging down the S&P 500 – and maybe your portfolio, too. What’s left will be a few indestructible diamonds screaming “buy me!” These are the powerhouse stocks that’ll supercharge your trading account over the next few months. And my favorite these days? (more)

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Avnet, Inc. (NYSE: AVT)

Avnet, Inc. distributes electronic components, enterprise computer and storage products, IT solutions and services, and embedded subsystems in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia/Pacific. It operates through two segments, Electronics Marketing (EM) and Technology Solutions (TS). The EM segment markets and sells semiconductors; interconnect, passive, and electromechanical devices; and embedded products for the electronic component manufacturers, as well as offers an array of value-added services that enable customers to evaluate, design-in, and procure electronic components throughout the lifecycle of their technology products and systems. The TS segment distributes enterprise computing servers and systems, software, storage, services, and complex solutions; and provides hard disk drives, microprocessors, motherboards, and DRAM module technologies to manufacturers of general-purpose computers and system builders.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Avnet (NYSE: AVT) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Avnet (NYSE: AVT)
Other than the steep drop in September and October, AVT has been trending primarily sideways over the last year. During that time stock has created an obvious resistance level at $45 (red). A break above that $45 level should mean higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: AVT has a key level of resistance at $45. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $45.
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Warning: Market Fell 57% After It Flashed This Same Signal

The anomaly I see today has only occurred twice before in the past decade.

The last time this indicator flashed its current reading was at the end of 2009, and within six months, the market had undergone a correction.

The previous time it was even close to this high was in October 2007, when stocks began a 17-month, 57% decline. Needless to say, I'm concerned. (more)
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Thursday, February 19, 2015

These 3 Stocks Could Make You Rich: CMG, PCLN, V

The main reason people invest is to achieve financial security, and while getting "rich" can be a moving target that depends on each individual's definition of the word, investors aren't likely to turn down wealth-boosting stocks. So we asked three of our top Motley Fool experts to tell us which companies they think could make them rich, and their answers cut across travel, dining, and finance.
Dan Caplinger
One stock I've followed for a long time is Chipotle Mexican Grill  (NYSE: CMG  ) , the fast-casual restaurant chain that has taken the industry by storm. Even as traditional fast-food outlets focused on efficiency and cost savings, Chipotle emerged with a fresh emphasis on high-quality food, and customers quickly flocked to the burrito maker in droves. (more)

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The Smart Money Loves Natural Gas Here! Going To $4?

When it comes to the market, there is no holy grail that will always tell you when to buy or sell. It doesn’t exist. In my experience, the real value is in the weight-of-the-evidence. We don’t just look at one data point. I want to see momentum, sentiment, trend and most importantly price action. When everything lines up, then we can calculate the risk and figure out whether the risk vs reward meets our strict standards.
Today I want to point out what is currently happening in Natural Gas futures. This is a market that for the most part I have not touched in a long long time. Ever since this hit our upside target above $6 a year ago, I haven’t seen any reason to bother with it. Long-time readers know that this is a market that I loved for a long time throughout 2012-2013 (see 2/12 & 4/12). But since then I’ve been quiet. There’s been nothing to say.
The latest Commitment of Traders Report suggests to us that the, “smart money”, is buying at a near record rate. The numbers are over 210,000 contracts net long from the commercial traders and quickly approaching a new record. From a more broad based sentiment gauge, the community hates it. Our data suggests that we are at the most pessimistic levels towards Natural Gas in over 5 years. It’s this sort of potential sentiment unwind that draws my attention.
Now, the most important thing obviously is price. The sentiment is great and all, don’t get me wrong. But only price pays. And this is where things get interesting. Here are Natural Gas futures breaking down below support from January and putting in fresh lows throughout the first half of February:
2015-02-18_15-00-39 ng d
But a funny thing happened last week. Prices came roaring back, not just back above this key support from last month, but now above an important downtrend line from the highs in November. Natural Gas basically got cut in half in just a few months. I think based on the brief breakdown and quick recovery, we could be in store for a nice rally with well-defined risk. There is no reason to own this if we are back below the downtrend line from November. That’s my line in the sand.
Moving on, it only gets better. Momentum is something we take very seriously. When prices make new lows, particularly in a strong downtrend, and momentum simultaneously puts in a higher low, this is what we call a “Bullish Divergence”. In my opinion, this is precisely what we have here.
Let’s recap:
  • The Smart Money loves it and is buying aggressively
  • Everyone else hates it
  • Momentum put in a bullish divergence this month
  • Price put in a failed breakdown (From failed moves come fast moves in the opposite direction)
  • Futures basically got cut in half in 2 months so a mean reversion is likely
  • The downtrend line from the November highs has now been broken to the upside
  • The risk is very well-defined
  • No one is talking about it

I like it…..I think we go to 4
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Treasury yields drop as Fed says it’s in no rush to hike rates

Treasury yields wiped out about half of Tuesday’s gains, plummeting after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting suggested that the central bank is in no rush to begin raising interest rates.
The yield on the 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.07%  slipped 6.3 basis point to 2.080%, according to data from Tradeweb. The yield on the two-year note TMUBMUSD02Y, -10.66%  shed 6.9 basis points to 0.605%.
Yields move inversely to prices.
As the minutes showed, many on the Federal Open Markets Committee are concerned that weak wage growth could continue to weigh on spending, and officials agreed that policy should stay data-dependent, according to the minutes. (more)

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I may get out of US stocks: Nobel-winner Shiller

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller told CNBC on Wednesday he's thinking about shifting his personal money away from U.S. stocks.
The Yale University professor said on " Squawk Box " he has about half his portfolio in stocks. "I'm thinking about getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper."
Citing moves he's already made, Shiller said, "What I have done is I've invested in Italy indexes, Spain index."
The stunningly low long-term interest rates are pushing U.S. stocks higher, he said. "You look at the major asset classes, they tend to be pricey."
The solution, Shiller said, is to save more. That's the conclusion of his third edition of his book "Irrational Exuberance."
"Retirement will be difficult if you don't save more," he warned. "I don't think people have reached that state of mind yet."
On housing, the co-founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index said he's concerned that the run in recent years may not continue. "We've seen a big increase in home prices since 2012, and I won't bet on that continuing."
"Home prices are ... at about the right level based on history. So may be they won't go anywhere in the near future," he added.
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Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Why Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Might Be the Market’s Biggest Mistake of the Year

Tesla is one of the most talked about stocks in the market. But, it is also one of the most misunderstood, with a sky-high valuation based only off of fanciful words from its CEO. Read here to find out what makes the valuation so out of whack, and learn of a handful of better investments in the auto industry.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has become the ultimate fanboy stock.
TSLAEarnings for the fourth quarter came in at a loss of 13 cents a share, where the company was expected to earn a 32 cent per share profit. Losses continue to grow. Last quarter it lost over $70 million, in the third quarter it lost $60 million, in the second quarter it lost $50 million, and…well, you get the picture.
Tesla shipped just around 9,800 cars during the fourth quarter, versus the expected 12,000. Ultimately, it missed its goal of shipping 33,000 cars in 2014.
The company made a slight profit during 1Q 2013, but it has now posted a loss for seven straight quarters. That’s a trend that’s expected to continue for the foreseeable future. (more)
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Chris Vermeulen – Gold Still in a Bear Market, but Don’t Lose Hope

from Financial Survival Network
We talked with the Gold and Oil Guy today, Chris Vermeulen. He says that Gold is still in a bear market, like it has been for the past three years. There’s an opportunity to pick up a quick profit when it rebounds from its current plunge, but don’t be fooled. It’s all setting up very nicely for the ultimate bull market that’s getting closer. Same with the much maligned Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX:V), which is at record lows due to its composition of miners and resource companies. Chris believes that when it comes back, it will come back very big, so consider the ETF. Chris is very bearish on Oil and doesn’t see it for quite some time, so don’t chase it lower. Believe the technicals, not your heart.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average Outlook - AE

DJIND-W 2-17-2015

The Dow made a new high today above last week. It is still is the sideways mode with the key resistance in the 18500-18600 level. Energy models are not at the highs so we are not in a major topping pattern. The Dow has been contained nicely by the Breakout Channel constructed from the October 2011 low.
DJIFOR-W 2-17-2015

A month-end closing above 17970 will warn that we can still see an early March high. That may then lead to a retest of support going into June. A low at that time will be very constructive for the longer term looking into 2017. It really appears that 2017 will not a a year we are going to forget.
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Morgan Stanley’s 9 Best Stocks in America: AMZN, AAPL, CP, DLPH, M, KORS, PRU, CRM, STLD

Each year Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) publishes its Investment Perspectives – North America research report. In it, the company publishes a list of its “best ideas.”
According to researchers at Morgan Stanley, these are the nine best stocks in North America based on “favorable risk-reward profiles” and “out-of-consensus thinking.”
The list has a few popular stocks and a others that have been flying under the radar lately, but Morgan Stanley’s analysts see upsides in all of them. (more)

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Southern Company (NYSE: SO): Time To Buy The Pullback?

When interest rates bottomed last month, bonds and several interest rate sensitive sectors of the stock market started to fall.
I was looking for a substantial correction in the utilities sector, and it appears to be well on its way to completing one. But some stocks in the group fell harder than others and may already be ripe for the picking. (more)

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Tuesday, February 17, 2015

5 Best Stocks Under $5 This Week: BLDP, ANTH, ARO, PRSS, BXE

“5 Best Under $5 This Week” is a new weekly feature intended to pinpoint smaller stocks that have recently shown outstanding performance — and that, because of recent positive events, seem likely to continue to outperform going forward.
The stocks highlighted in this article have been among the top stocks below $5 for the week ending Feb. 13, and whose big gains have been accompanied by increased and heavy volume.
Let’s take a look at five of these recent high flyers, their current prices and their performance over the past five days (in parenthesis):

Best Stocks Under $5: Ballard Power Systems Inc. (USA) (BLDP)

2/13/15 Closing Price: $2.66 (+55%)
Ballard Power Systems Inc. (USA) (NASDAQ:BLDP) is a fuel cell manufacturer that announced a new $80 million deal with Volkswagen AG (ADR) (OTCMKTS:VLKAY) this week for the “transfer of auto-related fuel cell intellectual property.” In addition, an engineering services contract between the two companies was extended for another two years. BLDP stock shot up like a rocket on the news. (more)

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO)

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It offers insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments, including scheduled interest and principal payments. The company insures various securities, including bonds issued by the United States state or municipal governmental authorities; notes issued to finance international infrastructure projects; and asset-backed securities issued by special purpose entities. It also insures and reinsures various types of the United States public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, housing revenue, infrastructure, investor-owned utility, and other public finance bonds; and various types of non-United States public finance obligations comprising infrastructure finance, regulated utilities, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Assured (NYSE: AGO) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Assured (NYSE: AGO)
AGO has had a wild ride this year. During the swings the stock has reached the $26.50 (blue) mark several times only to end up eventually pulling back down. If AGO can retest the $26.50 level once more the stock may finally look to break through it. A close above that resistance would also constitute a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: AGO has a 52-week resistance at $26.50. The possible long position on the stock would be on a breakout above that level with a stop placed under it.
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John Williams Odds High Hyperinflation Begins in 2015

John Williams, of, says the Fed has given a false sense of security but did not fix the problems that led to the last meltdown. Williams warns, “People say everything is fine again—nonsense. You had a panic in 2008. . . . The system was on the brink of collapse. The Fed and the federal government did everything in their power to prevent it. They pushed things into the future, but they didn’t do anything of substance to address the underlying problems.” So, are we going to have another panic? Williams says, “Yes, and that is the type of thing that can break at any time, and you just don’t have the options you had in 2008 for buying time into the future.” Williams adds, “The odds are high you are going to see the beginnings of hyperinflation this year.”
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10 cheap energy stocks that could soar up to 202%

Where do you think the price of oil is headed?
There’s quite a difference of opinion among investors, analysts and pundits. On Monday, Citigroup analyst Edward Morse said the recent rally for oil looked more like a “head-fake than a sustainable turning point,” and said oil could drop to as low as $20 a barrel before it turns around.
The price for West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery CLH5, +2.81% rose as much as 2.8% to $52.65 on Friday.
The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it expected Brent crude oil to average $55 a barrel this year, with the average price climbing to $60 in 2016 and eventually to $73 in 2020. (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous
  None scheduled
Presidents' Day
8:30 am Empire state index Feb.   9.0 10.0
10 am Home builders' index Feb.   59 57
8:30 am Producer price index Jan.   -0.5% -0.3%
8:30 am Housing starts Jan.   1.07 mln 1.06 mln
9:15 am Industrial production Jan.   0.4% -0.1%
9:15 am Capacity utilization Jan.   79.9% 79.7%
2 pm FOMC minutes        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Feb. 12
290,000 304,000
10 am Philly Fed Feb.   8.0 6.3
10 am Leading indicators Jan.   -- 0.5%
9:45 am Markit flash PMI Feb.   -- 53.9
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Saturday, February 14, 2015

My Most Undervalued, High-Yield Secure Dividend Stock

The stock market volatility and falling share prices we have experienced over the last four months have produced price disruptions that are not justified by the underlying business operations of the companies whose share prices have been driven down. Leaving the field wide open for finding extremely undervalued businesses where investors can find quick price appreciation.
In the case of high-yield stocks, a sharp drop in the share price forces investors to decide whether the decline is due to a possible dividend rate cut or is just a case of overblown fear about a dividend reduction that will not actually happen. In our case, its the latter. The stock unveiled in this article has been hammered along with the rest of the energy sector, but the good news is the business is healthy and the dividend may even increase shooting the stock price even higher. (more)

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Rick Rule: “We Haven’t Seen Capitulation In Natural Resources Yet”

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Seven Danger Signs of Stocks’ Coming Bear Market

Protect your portfolio now before the downturn begins
by Michael Sincere
Market Watch

With the U.S. stock market trying to surpass its all-time highs, many investors still don’t see the problem. After all, if the market is going up, why worry? Lately, many bulls feel invincible.
The problem is that if you wait until a bear market is formally announced, you will have lost a chunk of your paper profits. The key is to slowly take money off the table now. You may also protect your stock portfolio using hedging strategies, such as buying options.
Continue Reading at…
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Robert Shiller Who Got the Dot-com and Housing Bubbles Right Says Bonds Are Next and That’s Your Gold Price Spike

by Peter Cooper
Arabian Money

In the first edition of his landmark book ‘Irrational Exuberance,’ published in 2000, the Yale professor of economics and 2013 Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller presciently warned that stocks looked especially expensive. In the second edition, published in 2005 shortly before the real estate bubble crashed, he added a chapter about real estate valuations.
And in the new edition, due out later this month, Shiller adds a fresh chapter called ‘The Bond Market in Historical Perspective,’ in which he worries that bond prices might be irrationally high. Is this the next bubble to burst in global financial markets? Bond king Bill Gross lost his job for calling this too early but that does not mean it is not going to happen. Watch out pensioners and governments!
Continue Reading at…
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John Manfreda – Great Buys In The Oil Patch

from Financial Survival Network
John Manfreda is convinced that oil prices will return to and exceed their former highs, sooner rather than later.
Whether he’s right or wrong, there are some screaming buys among the downtrodden sector in the stock market. As usual the baby has been thrown out with the bath water. There’s some dividend plays that would bring a smile to Benjamin Graham’s long withered face.
John tells you all about them.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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US Rig Count Plunges By Most Since 1993, Production Hits Record Highs / by Tyler Durden on 02/13/2015 13:11
Despite the dramatic plunge in rig counts, this week saw yet another surge in production to record highs and with storage levels getting close to full, it would seem  – despite the bounce/squeeze in prices to $53 as the data hit – that supply remains well ahead of any demand. Total rig count dropped 98 to 1,358 – for the largest weekly drop of the 10 week run as cutting is accelerating rapidly – now down 30%.  This is the biggest weekly rig count drop since 1993. West Virginia remains the relative hardest hit with rig count depletions but Permian Basin collapse 49 rigs to 369 this week.
US Oil Rig Count Down 84 to 1,056
Canada Rig Count +1

Total Rig count… biggest percentage weekly drop since 1993
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Friday, February 13, 2015

The First Sign of an Impending Crash

Investors have plenty of reasons to be afraid right now...
There's the rapidly falling price of oil... The big decline in the value of global currencies... The Russian military action in the Ukraine... And the possibility of the European Union falling apart.
It's unsurprising that many investors are looking for the stock market to crash. And – as I'll show you today – we've seen the first big warning sign.
But here's the thing...(more)
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Cheniere LNG Will Get Killed

It has been a market truth for most of a decade that the price of natural gas in North America was one-sixth the price of natural gas in Japan.
The dream of many an entrepreneur was to put the fun back in fungible. That is, they want to compress or liquefy cheap American or Canadian natural gas and ship it across the Pacific.
They would reap large rewards from the arbitrage.
I made a lot of money over the last five years by owning Chicago Bridge & Iron (NYSE: CBI) — a company that builds the infrastructure needed to move natural gas around the planet. (more)
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The Problem Country That’s Bigger Than Greece, Spain, Italy and France Combined / By Graham Summers / 12 February 2015
The financial world focuses far too much on stocks.
Today, the market is roaring higher… for no real reason. Nothing substantial has come out of the EU talks with Greece. And the world has much bigger problems to deal with than Greece.
The US Dollar carry trade is over $9 trillion in size.
This means that over $9 trillion has been borrowed (in US Dollars) and plunged into various asset classes and investment projects around the world.
Greece’s GDP is $241 billion in size. Even if you add in the economies Spain, Italy, AND France, the US DOLLAR CARRY TRADE IS LARGER.
Again, if the US carry trade was a single country it’d be bigger than Greece,Spain, Italy, AND France combined.
When you BORROW in US Dollars you are effectively SHORTING the US Dollar. So when the US Dollar rallies… you have to cover your SHORT or you blow up.
And the US Dollar is rallying… HARD.
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