Monday, March 10, 2014

Gold and Silver Stocks: Buy, Sell or Hold? (GLD, SLV, GDX, XGD, CEF, HUI)

Gold sector cycle – up as of 12/27.
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Charles Nenner Research: Danger Of Deflation Is Real

Today’s research focuses on certain long-term cycles and their relation to ‘economics.’

We still feel that equity markets are flirting with deflation, and that commodities are continuing in a bear market. Supply has been growing faster than demand—and this is only partly the fault of the Federal Reserve.
Interest rates are close to zero, leading to fear of deflation. Therefore, under classic economic theory, prices either have to decline or output has to contract or both. Most economists today, however, believe that supply will create demand.  (more)

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Ixia provides converged Internet protocol (IP) network validation and network visibility solutions in the United States and internationally. The company’s solutions are used to design, verify, and monitor a range of Ethernet, Wi-Fi, and 3G/long-term evolution equipment and networks. It offers hardware platforms, such as chassis; interface cards, which generate, receive, and analyze various traffic types at multiple network layers; and Net Tool Optimizer, a hardware appliance that provides network visibility into physical and virtual networks, and optimizes monitoring tool performance. The company also provides a suite of software applications tools for video testing, voice testing, intelligent network testing, conformance testing, security testing, application testing, router testing, switch testing, wireless testing, Wi-Fi testing, broadband testing, and automated testing requirements.
To review Ixia’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of XXIA (Ixia) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of XXIA (Ixia)
XXIA has been trading mostly sideways for the last 3 months. Over that period of time, the stock has formed a clear resistance at $13.50 (purple), which had also been a prior support. In addition, the stock has created a strong level of support at $12 (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: XIA has identifiable levels of support and resistance. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $12, or on a solid close above $13.50. The ideal short opportunities would be on either a break below $12 or on a rally up to $13.50.
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NYSE Investor Leverage Is Higher Than During the Tech Bubble

Say you have 100% of your brokerage account in a diversified portfolio of stocks. And you’re absolutely certain that the market is going to rise.
Sounds great, right? But if you’re like most investors, you want to get rich as soon as possible.
If the market cooperates and blasts higher from here, you want to be sure that you’ve maximized your gains when your investments rise.
Unsurprisingly, the financial services industry has a way to help you satisfy this greedy impulse… It’s called margin debt.  (more)

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Bill Murphy is Fired Up: Gold Will Become Explosive Within A Month, New Highs Coming!

GATA’s Bill Murphy joins The Doc & Eric Dubin this week to discuss:
1. Friday’s massive cartel raid on the metals as gold pummeled by $25, and silver by nearly $1 on the NFP release
2. Ukraine crisis rapidly escalating as Russia has halted ammo exports to the US, both sides threaten economic war & retaliation, and Russia invades Ukranian Air Force Base in Crimea late Friday
3. SD Exclusive Report: After hundreds of BBB complaints over 6 month delays shipping bullion to customers, Tulving Company goes out of business
4. Bill discusses the latest on BaFin’s PM investigation, and whether GATA might be involved in assisting the German regulators
5. Murphy provides his outlook for the metals, and makes the case why gold and silver will become explosive within a month!

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
  None scheduled        
TUESDAY, march 11
7;30 am NFIB small-business index Feb.      
10 am Job openings Jan.
-- 4.0 mln
10 am Wholesale inventories Jan.   -- 0.3%
2 pm Federal budget Feb.   -- -$204 bln
THURSDAY, march 13
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3-8
--- 323,000
8:30 am Retail sales Feb.   0.2% -0.4%
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos Feb.   0.2% 0.0%
8:30 am Import price index Feb.
0.7% 0.1%
10 am Business inventories Jan.   0.4% 0.1%
FRIDAY, march 14
8:30 am Producer price index, final demand Feb.   0.2% 0.2%
8:30 am Core PPI, final demand Feb.   0.1% 0.2%
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment March   81.0 81.6
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