Friday, March 28, 2025
SPX Rejected at 200DMA - Is This the Beginning of the End?
Not even oversold
SPX reversed right on the 200 day and is putting in a massive down candle. RSI not even oversold. Not looking bueno...
Source: Refinitiv
VIX stress
VIX moving sharply to the upside, but still far from recent "panic" levels. Chart shows SPX and VIX (inverted).
Source: Refinitiv
Fear - not everywhere
VIX
surging....while skew remains well behaved. The theme of people selling
longs, and not paying up for downside protection remains intact.
Source: Refinitiv
Imagine...
High uncertainty raises the ‘potential volatility’ of the system....
Source: Soc Gen
HYG stress
HYG Skew at 99%ile.
Source: Nomura
Falling fundamentally
US corporate profits optimism is now falling.
Source: Soc Gen/Edwards
2nd worst president ever...?
The
chart shows that for all the post-inauguration periods since 1937 (when
the current January 20th date was fixed), this year has been flirting
with being the second-worst for the S&P out of 23 election cycles.
2001 is the worst, back when the stock market collapse accelerated
following the dot com bubble.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Lagnificent
Hartnett
sums it up: "US equities have led global equities & Magnificent 7
stocks have led US equities past 2 years; Magnificent 7 peaked at 35% of
S&P 500 market cap in Dec'24 (up from 20% in Jan’23), set to become
"Lagnificent 7" in '25".
Source: BofA
Sensitive households
Stocks at record 29% of US household financial assets.
Source: BofA
That was quick
Amazing how the US exceptionalism trade died so quickly.
Source: Nomura
1 and 99
Needs little commenting...
Source: Nomura
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