Tuesday, November 4, 2014

The Charts Warn Something is Very Wrong in This Sector : CHRW, CNW

It is hard to write a bearish stock review when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is having one of its best two-week rallies. But that is where the data takes me when we look at the trucking sector.
The Dow Jones U.S. Trucking Index has outperformed all year, but on a day when the Dow industrials soared over 200 points, up 1.3%, the trucking index was down about 2%. Something has changed here, and it looks to be time for investors to sell these stocks.
Let's start with a trucker with a chart that mirrors that of the sector as a whole, CH Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ: CHRW).
CHRW Stock Chart
We can see a nice rally with a gently corrective decline. When the market as a whole bottomed out in mid-October, CHRW went on a tear higher. (more)

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Buy the Eventual Bounce in Newmont Mining Corp (NEM)

Shares of gold mining company Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) tumbled again Friday on the back of its latest earnings report.
NEM stock is materially lower year-to-date along with the rest of the gold mining group. Gold prices have been flatlining for weeks, but with Friday’s post-Japan-QE rally in stocks, they sold off more, and now the metal is lower on the year. However, NEM stock looks increasingly oversold and ripe for a bounce.
Specifically, Newmont Mining reported net income of $213 million, significantly lower than the year-ago period’s $398 million. Still, the per-share figure of 50 cents trounced the average analyst estimate for 16 cents. Meanwhile, sales dropped from $2.02 billion to $1.75 billion, while the company’s gold producing or “sustaining” costs in the quarter dropped from $1,018 per ounce down to $995. (more)

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3 Oil Refiners on Sale from Falling Crude Prices: PBF, MPC, DK

Though most of the energy sector is under pressure recently, refiners are posting good results amid the turmoil. These stocks have been put on sale temporarily by the market, and have great chances to beat earnings going into the future which will send these stocks to new highs. 
The market has rallied sharply since indices hit their recent lows in the middle of October.  Both the S&P 500 and DJIA are back at all-time highs as “risk on” money has flooded back into the market on better than expected third quarter earnings results and as money managers take one last stab at beating their benchmarks before year-end bonuses are determined.
One sector that has not participated in the rally and has posted losses in October is the energy complex which has been hit hard by falling oil prices.  The recent, more than $25 a barrel, fall in oil prices has hit the entire sector, pummeling the small exploration and production sector particularly brutally.
Refinery stocks have not been immune to this pull back but seem to be posting stellar results this quarter. This counterintuitively makes senses as the cost of their primary feedstock has plunged faster than the price of refined products.  Several major independents have crushed expectations and both Chevron’s (NYSE: CVX) and ExxonMobil’s (NYSE: XOM) better than expected results last week were driven by their refinery operations.
Let’s take a look at a few attractive and cheap refinery stocks where the recent downturn looks overdone.
PBFFirst up is PBF Energy (NYSE: PBF) whose stock rallied sharply this week after posting earnings that just crushed bottom line expectations on a better than expected 8.2% year-over-year rise in revenues during the quarter.  Even with the rise this week, the shares are almost $7 a share below their recent highs this summer and go for a little less than $26 a share. (more)

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Marin Katusa: Startling Rise of ‘The Colder War’

by Anthony Wile
The Daily Bell

Introduction: Marin Katusa is chief energy investment strategy for Casey Research and managing editor for Casey Energy Confidential Casey Energy Report and The Colder War Letter. Katusa’s 2014 book, The Colder War, “is a timely and fascinating look at Vladimir Putin’s master plan to make Russia a world leader again, and what this could mean for everyone’s energy consumption in the decades to come.”
Marin Katusa is a regular commentator on BNN and is a member of the Vancouver Angel Forum where he and his colleagues evaluate early-seed investment opportunities. He also manages a portfolio of international real estate projects.
Daily Bell: Marin, The Colder War is a great book. I took it with me as a companion on a long flight, and I’m glad I did. It’s full of geopolitical history and insight, and it’s a joy to read.
For the benefit of readers who haven’t yet read The Colder War, please tell us what the war is about.
Marin Katusa: Vladimir Putin and his inner circle have set about to restore Russia’s influence in the world, perhaps to the point of preeminence. That necessarily entails an attack on US economic and political power.
Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…
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WTI Tumbles To 29-Month Lows After Saudi Price Cut

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden on 11/03/2014 14:48
After initially jerking higher after Saudi Arabia released its new ‘lower-prices-for-the-US’ strategy, it appears the market began to realize that in fact – as we warned – Saudi Arabia may be willing to accept prices “lower for longer.” WTI futures are trading below $78.50 – the lowest since June 2012 (and its dragging Trannies lower today)…
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Coach Inc (NYSE: COH)

Coach, Inc. provides luxury accessories and lifestyle collections for women and men in the United States and internationally. It offers handbags, money pieces, wristlets, rings, charms, and cosmetic cases for women; and business cases, computer bags, messenger-style bags, totes, wallets, card cases, and belts, as well as time management and electronic accessories for men. The company also provides wearables, such as outerwears, gloves, scarves, and hats; jewelry comprising bracelets, necklaces, rings, and earrings made with sterling silver, leather, and non-precious metals; travel bags, including luggage, travel kits, and valet trays; fragrances comprising eau de perfume spray, eau de toilette spray, purse spray, and body lotion for women; and fragrances for men, as well as footwear, watches, and sunglasses.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Coach (NYSE: COH) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Coach (NYSE: COH)
COH has been trading basically sideways for the last 4 months. You will notice that during that time the stock has found support at $33 (blue) whenever that level has been approached. Now the stock is almost there again. A bounce from that level should lead to a run up to the common resistance area at $36 (red).

The Tale of the Tape: COH has a key level of support at 33. A trader could enter a long position at $33, or on a break above $36, with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below $33 a short position could be entered instead.
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