Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Volatility has Completely Dried Up

Note the rising bearish wedge on the Nasdaq indicating we could be close to a point where the current rally stalls.

Volatility has all but dried up. High volatility leads to low volatility and vice versa. We could be getting close to a reversal in volatility.

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Nimble Storage Inc (NYSE: NMBL)

Nimble Storage, Inc. provides flash-optimized hybrid storage platform. The company’s software and storage systems handle various mainstream applications, including virtual desktops, databases, email, collaboration, and analytics. It offers systems that provide adaptive performance for high-input/output and high-capacity mainstream business applications and environments, such as Exchange, Oracle, SharePoint, SQL Server, virtual desktop infrastructure, and server virtualization. The company sells its products through a network of value added resellers and distributors to a range of industries comprising cloud-based service providers, education, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, state and local government, and technology worldwide.
To analyze Nimble’s stock for potential trading opportunities, please take a look at the 1-year chart of NMBL (Nimble Storage, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of NMBL (Nimble Storage, Inc.)
NMBL rallied well after its IPO only to fall pretty hard into May. The stock has been moving higher as of late and has recently hit a new recovery high. One level in particular that stands out on the stock is the $30 (blue) mark, which the stock broke back above yesterday.

The Tale of the Tape: NMBL is back above its key level of $30 and should be moving higher. A long trade could be made on a pullback down to that $30 level with a stop placed above that level. A break back below $30 would negate the forecast for a higher move.
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Thoughts on Gold Stocks / By Gary Tanashian / 24 June 2014
After making fools of the gold stock bears the initial thrust off of the right side of the bottoming pattern is making heroes of the bulls, especially those who remained steadfast in their bullishness throughout the bear market. Indeed, there is now some chest thumping going on by Team PermaBull.
The first move has been impressive in bursting upward off of what NFTRH has called ‘the 205 parameter’ (a right side shoulder point of a large Inverted Head & Shoulders). The initial move is maturing amidst the bullish cheer.
We have done extensive work on various time frames and components of the precious metals sector, beyond the weekly view of HUI above. Of particular interest lately has been the silver-gold relationship, and its relevance beyond the insular and highly obsessed upon precious metals sector. There is an entire macro story playing out.
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iStar Financial Inc. (NYSE: STAR)

iStar Financial Inc. operates as a finance and investment company focusing on the commercial real estate industry in the United States. The company provides custom-tailored investment capital to high-end private and corporate owners of real estate; and invests in a range of real estate sectors. The Real Estate Finance segment offers senior and mezzanine real estate loans; preferred equity investments, as well as senior and subordinated loans to corporations; and whole loans and loan participations. The Net Lease segment owns and leases corporate facilities to single creditworthy tenants. As of December 31, 2013, this segment owned 263 facilities comprising 20.4 million square feet in 33 states. The Operating Properties segment operates commercial properties consisting of office, retail, hotel, and other properties; and residential properties, including luxury condominium projects. This segment operated 28 commercial properties comprising 5.5 million square feet in 10 states; and 12 residential projects representing approximately 616 units located in principal cities in the United States. The land segment owns 27 properties, including 11 master planned community projects, 10 infill land parcels, and 6 waterfront land parcels.
To review iStar’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of STAR (iStar Financial, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of STAR (iStar Financial, Inc.)
STAR has been trading sideways for the last 3 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $15 (blue). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $14 (black). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels that the sideways consolidation has created.

The Tale of the Tape: STAR has clear levels of support ($14) and resistance ($15). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $14, or on a breakout above $15. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $14.
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Repeat: Get Your Money Out Of Bond Funds – NOW / Dave Kranzler / 
This article was in Bloomberg News today:
There’s a bigger risk “that when the the Fed starts hiking in earnest, outflows from high-yielding and less-liquid debt will lead to a free fall in prices,” JPMorgan strategists led by Jan Loeys wrote in a June 20 report. “In extremis, this could force a closing of the primary market and have serious economic impact.”
It’s just like I said (video link), BlackRock is leading the charge, there’s a massive derivatives blow-up coming at some point and there will be capital controls placed on bond funds.
Don’t say you have not been warned.   And move your money in to physical gold and silver.
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