Tuesday, April 23, 2013

"Dow 16,000": What you should know about this weekend's big bullish prediction

"The stock market isn't the only thing that has set records this spring. Barron's semiannual Big Money poll of professional investors also is setting a record for bullishness, that is. In our latest survey, 74% of money managers identify themselves as bullish or very bullish about the prospects for U.S. stocks an all-time high for Big Money, going back more than 20 years."

"Dow 16000!" Barron's Magazine Big Money Poll, April 20, 2013

A few reminders…

"Still Bullish! (Dow 13000)" Barron’s Magazine Big Money Poll, May 1, 2000

The May 2000 Big Money Poll was published with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 10733.91. The Dow had already peaked nearly a thousand points higher in January of 2000, and would go on to lose about 40% of its value in the 2000-2002 bear market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq faring far worse.

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Delek US Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: DK)

Delek US Holdings, Inc. operates as an integrated downstream energy company that operates in petroleum refining, logistics, and convenience store retailing businesses. The company operates in three segments: Refining, Logistics, and Retail. The Refining segment owns and operates two refineries in Tyler, Texas, and El Dorado, Arkansas; and produces various petroleum-based products used in transportation and industrial markets. The Logistics segment gathers, transports, and stores crude oil, as well as markets, distributes, transports, and stores refined products. This segment serves oil companies, independent refiners and marketers, jobbers, distributors, utility and transportation companies, and independent retail fuel operators. The Retail segment markets gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products, as well as convenience merchandise.
Delek's stock is forming a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. Please take a look at the 1-year chart of DK (Delek US Holdings, Inc) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of DK (Delek US Holdings, Inc) DK finally broke out through its $27 resistance area in January and rallied higher as expected. Over the last (3) months the stock has created a very important level at $35 (navy), which is also the “neckline” support for DK's H&S pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (blue). Confirmation of the H&S would occur if the stock broke below its $35 support. If DK breaks that level, the stock should move lower from there.
The Tale of the Tape: DK seems to have formed a head & shoulders pattern. Although a trader could go long at $35 expecting a bounce, the stock's pattern implies an eventual breakdown. If that happens, a short trade should be entered on a break of the $35 level.

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Maguire – Elaborates On The LBMA Default & Ensuing Panic

kingworldnews.com / April 22, 2013
Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News, providing even more details by elaborating on the events surrounding the LBMA default.  Maguire, who recently appeared in the extraordinary CBC production titled, “The Secret World of Gold,” also told KWN about the ensuing panic which has taken place in the aftermath of the LBMA default.  Maguire described entities as “panicking.”  Below is what Maguire had to say in part II of his remarkable and exclusive interview.
Eric King:  “Inside that piece (“The Secret World of Gold”) you talked about gold leasing and the mechanics of that.  Jim Sinclair wanted me to bring that up to you, the gold leasing, the mechanics of it, can you talk about that?”
Maguire:  “We did a piece on King World News about it, about the LBMA bullion bank default.  Stepping back, how did they get to such a mismatched (trading) position where they had so little gold and silver in their inventory to be able to back up people coming and asking for their gold and silver?  They never anticipated that this would happen….
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Investment Education 101: Introduction to compound interest

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Double Top Forming In US Dollar?

The Dollar looks to have put in a DCL right in the timing band.  The 12 day decline into the low has more than provided the consolidation needed to confirm the low and recharge the Cycle.  This was fairly evident today with the Dollar rocketing out of its Cycle Low with an impressive 0.80 move.
The Dollar is an interesting Cycle to study here because there are some varying scenarios that could be unfolding.  Firstly, it’s pretty clear on the chart that the Dollar is sporting a Daily Cycle failure.  Typically such a failure means that the dominant Cycle is now in decline, in this case it’s the Investor Cycle.  This isn’t an unreasonable expectation; the Investor Cycle is on Week 11 and in the timing band for a top.

It’s important to understand that a Cycle failure does not have to mean a Cycle in decline though.  Generally they are telling of future weak price action, but there are no hard and fast rules in Cycles around these failures.  So for this reason, an Investor Cycle decline does not need to occur imminently or from a new Left Translated Cycle.
But at this point with a Daily Cycle failure and a Week 11 Investor Cycle, we should be on the lookout for a new Cycle that tops fairly early.  The logical top or turn would be after a move to a double top (83.50) or a quick burst to new highs.
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A Visual History Of All Asset Bubbles

Maybe not all, but certainly the vast majority of the most popular asset bubbles since before even the Tulip Mania of 1637 (including the Kipper and Wipper currency debasement of the German 30 years War, circa 1621, which is appropriately enough deja vu in contemporary retrospect, only the war is missing). While it may be worth noting that all the bubbles to the right of center have been central-bank induced (except for that amulet bubble of 2006, although even that is likely debatable), we will not note it as it is quite obvious even without us highlighting this simple fact. One can only imagine what would happen to asset prices - all of them - when the world's central banks, which are now collectively and voluntarily "all in" on reflating the biggest asset bubble of all time across all asset classes, decide to close the liquidity spigots (if ever).

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U.S. Equity Market Radar (April 22, 2013)

U.S. Equity Market Radar (April 22, 2013)
The S&P 500 suffered its worst losses of the year, falling by more than 2 percent this week. A combination of factors was the likely culprit. Chinese GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter, with investors remaining skeptical that China will be able to grow as fast as expected for 2013 with a relatively slow start to the year. Gold sold off sharply on Monday after a big drop on Friday in what appeared to be a market dislocation that was difficult for even seasoned investors in the space to explain. This sharp selloff in gold spilled over to other markets as investors feared it was a precursor to financial market volatility to come. Defensive groups outperformed, while more cyclical areas were hit the hardest.
  • The telecommunication services sector was the leader this week as Sprint Nextel rose by more than 15 percent on a takeout offer from Dish Network.
  • The utility sector also outperformed as investors appreciated the stability and dividends that utilities offer.
  • Sprint Nextel was the best performer this week as discussed above but Life Technologies rose by more than 8 percent on a takeout offer from Thermo Fisher Scientific.  (more)
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