Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Just how low can Copper go?

Last week December 2012 Copper opened at 3.6375 and closed at 3.5500. While new home sales did show an increase in September 2012 building will slow down as winter weather approaches here in the US lowering demand for copper. Also if we see continued global economic weakness in Europe and Asia that will also have an effect on demand.

On the daily chart below you can see that ADX reflects increasing strength to trend as the numbers rise now at 31.6. MACD is bearish and Stochastics are in deep oversold territory. You can see the two "red vertical lines" highlighting technical trade signals from one of the tools at Trends in Futures called the TS Analyzer. When the first one showed up I mentioned to wait for a solid break below 2.7000 in my video commentary. The break took place on the second red line on Oct 19.

On the weekly chart you can see weekly ADX reflects increasing strength to the weekly trend with numbers rising now at 33. Weekly Stochastics are mid-range and coming down. On the COT Disaggregated report Producers had a slight drop to net shorts now -51,488 contracts. Managed Money had a slight drop to net longs now at 18,067 and Swap Dealers had a slight increase to net longs now at 45,586 contracts. With today's price action and a continued posture for weaker prices by big money we could see a test of 3.4500.


Was Arch Crawford Right About Delayed Election / Martial Law?

from FinancialSurvivalNet
Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives was on the show in August and September of this year. He stated for the record that he believed that the election would be delayed or cancelled and that martial law would be imposed. To our knowledge, these were the only public interviews he gave out with such specific predictions. He felt that September 30th would be the day that all hell broke loose. Here we are, a month to the day and the Northeast is suffering a Perfect Storm, only this time we’re not worrying about George Clooney getting lost in a fishing boat, we’re talking about 10′s of millions of people suffering widespread power outages and lack of food and basic services.
Could this turn into a nature-driven ‘Reichstag’ event? We all know that this administration is the most lawless on record. Basic constitutional limitations that kept presidents in check for over 200 years seemingly have no affect or power over this Chicago thug based power-crazed group of sociopaths. Don’t think for a second that the president is actually calling the shots. Rather it’s a control group of labor union collectivist types combined with a group of America haters that are driving the Country closer and closer to chaos.
Listen to these interviews and decide for yourself.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

5 Gold Mining Stocks With Major Upside

NEW YORK (Stockpickr) -- Thanks to a strong upward move in recent months, gold prices are back up around $1,700 an ounce, not far from the $1,900 peak seen in the summer of 2011. For anyone who has owned gold since it traded for just $1,100 an ounce at the start of 2011, these have been happy times indeed.

The same can’t be said for companies that mine gold. These miners have traded down from their highs on concerns that rising costs will crimp profits. Yet concerns about mining profits increasingly appear overblown.

Though production costs had been rising in recent quarters, they now appear to be leveling off. And at current levels, their expenses still ensure ample profits, assuming gold prices hang in there around $1,700.

Here are five gold mining stocks that look like solid bargains, with considerable upside even if gold prices themselves fail to rally further.

Barrick Gold

Any gold mining portfolio needs exposure to Barrick Gold (ABX), which is the world’s largest gold producer, with 26 mines spread across the globe. Despite its massive heft, investors soured on the company’s lack of discipline when it came time to measure investments in each mine for its potential return.  (more)

7 Strategies the Rich Use that You Don’t (But Should)

Monopoly Boardwalk HotelAfter reading all the hoopla about Mitt Romney’s tax returns (I think it would be fascinating to read his returns just to see what sorts of loopholes and tricks his accounting/tax team uses… I don’t begrudge him for doing exactly what I’d do – minimize tax payments by following the rules as written), I start doing a little research into the sorts of strategies the rich use to avoid as much income tax as possible. When the wealth have marginal tax rates north of 30%, it’s amazing how much low tax rate income they must have to bring that number down into the low teens.
Here are a handful of strategies that they use that, while not always 100% accessible to the average person, are at least within the realm of possibility: (i.e. you won’t see carried interest mentioned once!)

Build a strong network

I wanted to start the list off with something that anyone can do but that the wealthy, especially those who derived their wealth in business, do very well – networking. One thing you’ll recognize very quickly is that the most successful individuals often know the most number of people. While it may appear that it has to do with the wealth they’ve generated, that’s often the result of the network itself. Think about some of the more successful people in your workplace, the people who can “get things done” and a lot of it has to do with the other people in the organization that they know. When I worked at large companies, some people were able to circumvent the arduous process cycles to get their work at the head of the line or completed with extra attention to minimize errors. It’s entirely based on networking (read: friendships).
And networking is a delicate process. We all know about the guy who introduces himself and within minutes has his business card in your hand. Or the friend who just joined a multi-level marketing “business” and wants you to buy [insert products here]. Networking is about being a nice person, finding out what other people do, and then, at some later time, figuring out if you can work together. You have to build a network before you need it because rushing the process will turn people off. (what this really means is just be nice to people and don’t think about networking as building a network, think of it more like making a lot of friends that you hope, one day, you can help somehow in a tangible way)  (more)

Nigeria: A Primer on the Hazards of Country Risk

by Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist
Casey Research

Nigeria has 37 billion barrels of crude oil reserve and is Africa’s largest oil producer. The country also boasts 187 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, the ninth-largest reserve in the world.
Nigeria has all the right geology for oil and gas. But geology isn’t everything.
The best geology in the world can still be a terrible place to put your money if other risks threaten to steal all of a project’s profits and potential – and country risk can pose precisely that threat.
Think about it this way. In considering any business venture, you need to know several key parameters, such as how much it will cost to establish the operation, how much you will produce, and what percentage of your profits the government will take. In Nigeria, you cannot calculate any of these metrics with confidence because the rules are so complex and corrupt.
Continue Reading at…

Mexico Joins the US and Others in Implementing Capital Controls

by Jim Karger, Dollar Vigilante:
By 2014, the US Department of Homeland Security will be able to scan you at the molecular level from 164 feet, and you won’t even know it. Starting 2013, the US Department of the Treasury will be able to scan every bank and brokerage account you have in the world, save a few possibilities. In both cases, if the government doesn’t like what it sees, they can make short work of you and your money.
Unfortunately, while the US has become the world’s most invasive police state, combining intent with technology, it is not the only state policing its citizens’ financial transactions. Indeed, many other nations are following in its footsteps, limiting individual freedom as well as financial freedom. One of the most common examples of financial fascism today is currency controls, that is, limiting how much cash one can withdraw over a period of time, what can be purchased with cash, and requiring the reporting of purchases and sales above a certain amount with cash. In the US, for example, transactions above $10,000 must be reported by banks and certain vendors, and suspicious transactions (however defined) also reported. Spain recently banned cash transactions above 2,500 euros.
Read More @

WTI Crude Oil & Oil Stocks Seasonality & Year-End Outlook

Crude oil has had some large price swings this year and another one may be on its way. This report shows the seasonality of crude oil along with where oil is trading and what the oil service stocks are telling us is likely to happen going into year end.
Since WTI Crude Oil topped out in September at the $100 resistance level (Century Number) many traders are looking for a bounce or bottom to form in the next week. Historical charts show that on average the price of oil falls during November and the first half of December.
The charts of oil and oil stocks shown below have formed patterns on both time frames (weekly & daily) that lower prices are to be expected. If you did not read my Gold Seasonality Report I just posted be sure to review it here: Gold Seasonal Report
Crude Seasonality

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart:

Here you can see that price tends to fall going into Christmas and rallies during the last week of trading. This price action falls in line with Dimitri Specks seasonal chart providing us with insight as to what we should expect. Later this week I will finish my report on the Election Cycle Seasonality report which shows weakness in the market during Oct & Nov when a president is up for re-election.
Crude Oil Price

Oil Services Stocks – Weekly Chart:

If you follow oil closely then you know likely know already that oil related stocks can lead the price of oil by a couple weeks. What this means is that if big money is flowing into oil stocks (bullish price patterns with strong volume), then you should expect the price of crude oil to rise in the coming days. That said, if money is flowing OUT of oils stocks then lower or sideways oil price should be expected.
The weekly chart oil stocks show a very large bearish head & shoulders pattern. While I do not think the neckline will be broken it is very possible.
One of the most important pieces of data on the chart is the VOLUME. Notice the lack of it… Volume tells us how much interest and power is behind chart patterns and declining volume clearly tells us these investments are out of favor currently and that big money is not moving into them.
Oil Stocks Weekly

Oil Services Stocks – DAILY Chart:

Zooming into the daily chart of the oil service stocks we can see there is yet another bearish pattern unfolding. Another head & shoulders pattern which looks as though it is just starting to breakdown as of this writing. Next support level is $35-36.
Crude Oil Stocks Daily

WTI Crude Oil and Oil Service Stocks Trading Conclusion:

Looking forward 1-2 months (November – December) taking the seasonal price swings in oil, re-election cycle seasonality and price action of oil stocks I feel oil will trade sideways or down from here. With that being said, expect crude oil to rally during the last week of the year. I hope this provides some useful info for your trading!

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Turk – 15,000 Tons Of Western Central Bank Gold Is Gone

from KingWorldNews:

Today James Turk once again shocked King World News when he stated, “… in 1997 over (a stunning) 2,000 tons of gold moved out of Great Britain.” Turk added, “Now since Great Britain is not a gold miner, we know that gold had to come out of the Bank of England (where they store other countries gold), and it probably went into Zurich (Switzerland) for what’s called ‘leasing’ but I use the word ‘lending,’ or lending into the market.”
Turk added this stunning estimate, “At the time I had concluded that it was about 15,000 tons of gold which had actually been put into the market out of central bank vaults. This is approximately half of what central banks reported to own at the time.”
James Turk continues @

9 Financial Rules You Should Never Forget

The Motley Fool's mission is to help the world invest, better. To do my part, here are nine things I think investors should never forget.

1. Nine out of 10 people in finance don't have your best interest at heart.
Wall Street is a magnet for some of the nation's smartest students hailing from the best universities. And let me tell you: Few of them go into finance because they want to help the world allocate capital efficiently. They do it because they want to get rich.

And the fastest and most reliable way to get rich on Wall Street isn't to become the next Warren Buffett. It's to find people gullible enough to pay outrageous fees and commissions on products that rarely beat a basic index fund.

IBM estimates that global money managers overcharge investors by $300 billion a year for failing to deliver returns above a benchmark index. If you think the regret and shame these managers feel is stronger than the joy they get from driving their Lexus to their beachfront home, I have a bridge -- and a CDO -- to sell you.

2. Don't try to predict the future.
A little more than a decade ago:
  • Greece was strong.
  • Russia was bankrupt.
  • Oil cost $13 a barrel.
  • AOL dominated the Internet.
  • Smart economists thought the government would pay off the national debt by 2009.
  • Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) was a joke.
  • General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) was at an all-time high.
  • Mark Zuckerberg was in middle school.
  • Y2K was a major worry.
  • Fortune named Enron one of America's "most admired corporations."
The coming decade will be filled with just as many shifts. Learning to deal with them is more important than being able to predict them. Because no one -- no one -- will be able to predict them all.  (more)

Profit From This Surprising Commodity With an Investment You've Never Heard Of

To the surprise of almost everyone, natural gas has turned out to be the fastest rising commodity of 2012. Just six months ago, many assumed that gas would struggle to move higher for years to come, thanks to a production glut that overwhelmed demand.
Throw that playbook out the window.
Natural Gas Chart
Natural gas supply has been throttled back in a meaningful way, and I recently opined on our sister site,, that gas could eventually move past $4.50 per MCF (thousand cubic feet).

Yet here's the tricky part: Though the fundamentals for gas imply yet higher prices ahead, the technical picture is much less robust. Simply put, this is a commodity that has been forced higher very quickly as a result of trading dynamics -- most notably short-covering by bearish traders. And there's a good chance that traders will look to lock in gains at current levels, and selling pressures will dominate in coming weeks and months -- before the bright fundamental long-term picture takes hold anew.  (more)

Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you are likely going to get excited because of what my analysis and outlook shows.
Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts knew that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.
Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). You can see that gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.

Weekly Spot Gold Chart:

The weekly chart can be a very powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 – 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.
Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 – 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.
Gold Stock Investing

Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:

If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.
The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.
GDXJ has formed a tight bull flag and the volume levels confirm there is big money moving into these investments. The first price target on GDXJ using technical analysis for a measured move points to the $32 area. Looking forward twelve months with gold trading above $2000 we could see this fund more than double in value.
Bonus: while most traders focus on GDX gold miner fund, I prefer the GDXJ fund because its almost identical in price performance BUT it pays you a 5% dividend…
Junior Gold Mining Stocks

Gold’s Seasonality:

It’s that time of year again where gold tends to move higher. Below you can see where we are and what the price of gold typically does in November.
Gold Seasonality Trading

Gold Investing & Trading Conclusion:

Looking forward one month (November) and factoring in the recent pullback in gold to known support levels along with strong buying of junior gold mining stocks, I feel gold will take another run at the $1800 level and for GDXJ to test its previous higher of $25.50 at minimum. If both those levels get taken out then a massive bull market for precious metals could be triggered. Only time will tell…

Chart of the Day - Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

The "Chart of the Day" is Eastman Chemical Company (EMN), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Eastman Chemical gapped higher Friday and posted an all-time at $61.22 and closed up +12.19%. TrendSpotter exited a short position on Eastman Friday and got long at $59.57. In recent news on the stock, Eastman Chemical reported Friday that in Q3 it earned $1.57 per share on an adjusted basis from continuing operations, higher than analysts' estimates of $1.42 per share. Eastman also raised its full-year 2012 earnings forecast to $5.30 to $5.40 per share for the year on an adjusted basis, up from its prior forecast of $5.30 per share, as CEO Jim Rogers said that the company's acquisition of Solutia this summer boosted earnings. Eastman Chemical Company, with a market cap of $8.327 billion, is a global chemical company that manufactures and sells chemicals and specialty polymers supplied to the inks, coatings, adhesives, sealants, and textile industries; fine chemicals; performance chemicals and intermediates; specialty plastics; polyester plastics such as polyethylene terephthalate sold under the trademark EASTAPAK polymers; and fibers.

Embry – Truth Exposed About Missing Central Bank Gold

from King World News
Today John Embry told King World News, “I firmly believe that if you look at all of the Western central banks, and the gold they allegedly own, I believe a significant portion of that is not in their vaults.” Embry also stated, “So they can say all they want, but in the end the truth will be revealed by the lack of physical gold in the market as they run out of enough gold to keep the price under control.” Embry also predicted, “The revelation of this central bank conspiracy will make the Libor scandal pale in comparison.”

But first, here is what Embry, who is chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say about missing central bank gold: “Well I’m glad that some light is being shed on this publicly. This has been a contention of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee for years, that a lot of the central bank gold is not in the vaults. Gold ownership has changed hands as it’s been swapped, leased and what have you. I think this is very important that this is coming to light.”
Continue Reading at…

QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market

by Catherine Austin Fitts, Solari:
I used to have a deputy who said that the FHA mortgage insurance funds were where mortgages went to die. That was, however, before the creation of MERS, derivatives and the explosion of mortgage fraud during the 1990′s which in combination with the “strong dollar policy” engineered what I have referred to as a financial coup d’etat.

The challenge for Ben Bernanke and the Fed governors since the 2008 bailouts has been how to deal with the backlog of fraud – not just fraudulent mortgages and fraudulent mortgage securities but the derivatives piled on top and the politics of who owns them, such as sovereign nations with nuclear arsenals, and how they feel about taking massive losses on AAA paper purchased in good faith.

On one hand, you could let them all default. The problem is the criminal liabilities would drive the global and national leadership into factionalism that could turn violent, not to mention what such defaults would do to liquidity in the financial system. Then there is the fact that a great deal of the fraudulent paper has been purchased by pension funds. So the mark down would hit the retirement savings of the people who have now also lost their homes or equity in their homes. The politics of this in an election year are terrifying for the Administration to contemplate.
Read More @

Time to Pull the Lever – On Gold

Gold closed at $1,716 per ounce last Friday, almost $80 below the peak of $1,791.75 it reached three weeks ago. The drop was widely attributed to continuing global economic uncertainty and speculators taking profits – which means the experts have no idea what really happened. We don't try to second-guess short-term fluctuations here at Casey Research, but instead keep our focus on the bigger picture.
In the greater scheme of things, a 4.2% decline is not a significant drop for gold; for a savvy investor, it's another chance to buy bullion cheaper. We're not alone in thinking that way: Reuters reports that gold holdings of metal-backed exchange-traded funds grew over this period. There are indications that Indians preparing for their festival season pushed demand higher as well.
An even better buying opportunity can be found with the gold equities. While gold was down 4.2% from October 4 to 26, gold stocks fell by 5.3% at the same time.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The difference isn't all that big – so why do we think it's important? First, the decrease would have been much greater if we'd cheated a bit and used the numbers as of two days earlier, underscoring yet again how volatile our market is. Second, the current decline in the sector is likely to be short-lived due to the traditionally stronger fall and winter season we're entering. Third, the inherent leverage gold stocks carry over the price of the metal should deliver better-than-bullion returns when they rebound – a fact big investment funds have been taking advantage of for some time (more)

Monday, October 29, 2012

Chart of the Day - Kroger (KR)

The "Chart of the Day" is Kroger (KR), which showed up on Thursday's Barchart "52-Week High" list. Kroger on Thursday posted a new 14-month high of $25.36 and closed +1.40%. TrendSpotter has been long since Sep 6 at $23.10. In recent news on the stock, Jefferies on Oct 16 upgraded Kroger to Buy from Hold and raised its target price to $30 from $25. Kroger on Oct 16 raised its long-term EPS growth target to 8-11% and approved a $500 million share repurchase program to replace the program than had $340 million of purchases remaining. Kroger, with a market cap of $13 billion, is one of the larger grocery retailers in the United States.


How to deal with trading losses

I’m not sure if you guys have discovered Gatis Roze, one of the newer bloggers over at I mentioned his new blog back in the Spring, and he certainly did not disappoint. He’s been pumping out blog post after blog post. And since I read a ton of technical work everyday, it’s nice to sometimes sit back and enjoy more of a philosophical discussion on trading and investing.

One of his recent posts at The Traders Journal“How I Deal With Trading Losses” is a must read. Here are a few things that stuck out to me:

As I see it, there are two types of losses.  The first type of loss is simply a result of the laws of probability and is to be expected if you follow your methodology.  I tell my classes that I lose about 4 out of every 10 trades.  The novices in the class react by asking themselves why they are taking an investment class from such a loser. The experienced investors nod their heads in approval.  The point is that when I lose, I cut my losses quickly to minimize the costs. When I have a winner, I let it run.  It works out to be a net positive as the winners more than compensate for the losers.  For you sports fans, another way to look at it might be to ask:  how much would a baseball team pay me if I hit only 6 out of 10 times at bat?  (more)

Red Hat, Inc. (NYSE: RHT)

Sometimes trading in the stock market can be complicated, and at times, confusing. However, there are some trading opportunities that are clear and somewhat obvious. One potentially simple trading opportunity would be for the stock of Red Hat, Inc.

Red Hat, Inc. provides open source software solutions to enterprise customers worldwide. The company also offers enterprise-ready open source operating system platforms. Its products include Red Hat Enterprise Linux, an operating system designed for enterprise computing; Red Hat JBoss Middleware, which offers a range of middleware offerings for developing, deploying, and managing applications, such as hotel and airline reservation systems, online banking, credit card processing, securities trading, healthcare systems, customer and partner portals, retail and point-of-sale systems, and telecommunications network infrastructure that are accessible through the Internet, corporate intranets, extranets, clouds, and virtual private networks; and Red Hat Virtualization, a virtualization solution for server and desktop computers that combines the kernel-based virtual machine hypervisor with the oVirt open source virtualization management system. In addition, the company offers other Red Hat enterprise technologies, including Red Hat Messaging, Real-time, and Grid that integrates open and scalable messaging; and Red Hat Directory Server that centralizes application settings, user profiles, group data, policies, and access control information into a network-based registry. Further, it provides various cloud, storage, and systems management offerings, as well as offers training, consulting, and support services.

Please take a look at the 1-year chart of RHT (Red Hat, Inc.) below with my added notations:

1-year chart of RHT (Red Hat, Inc.)

It's relatively straightforward. RHT has been holding a very important level of support at $50 (navy) for the last (8) months. No matter what the market has or has not done over that period of time, RHT has not broken below that area of support. If the market should move lower, RHT would most likely break that support and move lower from there.

Gold Cycle “Following The Script”

Again tonight yet another “following the script” report with regards to the Gold Cycle; it really has tracked our expectations well. Today Gold touched $1,698 and with that we witnessed a 14 day $100 decline. It helps with keeping expectations in line when you already expect a decline of this magnitude.
With today’s drop, we came very close to the 38.2% fib level of this entire IC, a point that I would normally consider the minimum expected retracement level for a final ICL. Technically we’re now seeing oversold levels which have qualified as ICL events in the past. Although Gold is still far from “extremely oversold” and it’s extremes that normally define ICL events. From a Cycles standpoint, we enter Day 21, now within the timing band for a Cycle Low and right on the average (in days) for 4th or 5th Daily Cycle’s.

As an update to the weekend report, I have provided you (below) with the past 4th and 5th final Daily Cycles, shown by percent decline over Cycle days. As you can see, we now have a Cycle that conforms perfectly to past final Daily Cycle that is also a part of similar dominant (C-Wave) Cycle. The key point is that in both duration and decline, this Cycle is now right on the average of this sample set.

The all-important sentiment towards Gold is also sharply contracting. Typically sentiment drops the most in the final weeks of an ICL move, and these sentiment readings do not take the past 2 days of declines into consideration. You will also notice that I highlighted past C-Wave sentiment decline levels on the chart below. It’s important to understand that sentiment within C-Waves do not decline to the levels as seen during both the recent D and B Wave lows.

The Weekly Cycle has hugged the trend-line I drew 3 weeks ago and now we’re seeing the expected 3 Weekly declining candles.  The foundations for an ICL are now just about in place.  Just like the Daily Cycle, the Investor Cycle has essentially now flashed the “all clear” ICL sign.  This simply means that although we’re not at extreme ICL levels, we have for the most part fulfilled a very wide range of conditions which are present during all other ICL’s.  Any speculation on further price declines from this point forward are simply just a matter of opinion, the evidence comfortably supports a Cycle Low between this point or up to 5 days out and $60 lower.  The point is from a Cycles standpoint, we have entered the “sweat spot”, further declines are possible, but very far from assured.  So as to my personal opinion, I think we have one more 1-3 day drop with gold, most of it being intra-day action that touches as low as the $1,665 level.

How Far Will Apple Fall?: AAPL

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) — On Oct. 3, I suggested three possibilities for the future direction of AAPL, and on Oct. 9, at $638, I concluded that a head-and-shoulders top had occurred. I wrote:
“On Monday, the third option, a head-and-shoulders breakdown, occurred following more production problems with the new iPhone 5. Despite reduced trading volume due to Columbus Day, enough sellers surfaced to drive the stock’s price through the neckline at $655 on a breakaway gap.

“This is a classic breakdown — it just doesn’t get any clearer than this. However, a fall to $605 would not change the long-term direction of the stock (which is still up) and could present a good buying opportunity. I’ll review it when it gets there.

Thursday’s low was $605.55. After the close, Apple missed its earnings target, reporting Q4 2012 earnings of $8.67 versus an expected $8.75. The company also said it sees Q1 2013 earnings per share of $11.75 versus a prior estimate of $15.43.

Those who shorted the stock may want to take profits this morning if it opens lower. However, the stock may head even lower with its next target the 200-day moving average line at $587.
Trade of the Day – Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Click to Enlarge

Why a "bond investor slaughter" could be unavoidable now

I'm going to say this here and now for posterity and I hope you bookmark it:
There's going to be such a brutal bond investor slaughter at some point over the next decade that the streets of Boston's mutual fund district will run red with blood, the skies will be shot through with the lightning and thunder of unexpected capital losses and those who manage to survive will envy the dead.
Now a slaughter in bonds will not look like an equity market crash, the volatility characteristics are different and bonds eventually mature. But in some ways it will feel much worse than a stock crash because the money parked in bonds is thought of as low or no-risk.
The fixed income guys know what's going to happen, too. Why do you think the Bond Kings at PIMCO and DoubleLine are pushing into equity funds? They're getting three-year track records under their belts for when the big switch comes.
And it will come.
You know how I know this? Because you lunatics are plowing money into fixed income at all-time low interest rates during the parabolic final phase of a 30-year bond market rally. You are going limit-up long into one of the most obvious blow-off tops in the history of investing. And you're doing this with almost guaranteed inflation ahead of us and only the prospects of negative real rates of return on your T-bills.  (more)

Marc Faber Sees 20% Decline For Dow, S&P

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report, sees a 20% decline ahead for the Dow and S&P 500 from their recent highs. Here's what a 20% decline in the S&P 500 ($SPX) would look like. He was featured on CNBC in Europe on 10/23/2012.

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual forecast previous
MONDAY, Oct. 29
8:30 am Personal income Sept.   0.4% 0.1%
8:30 am Consumer spending Sept.   0.7% 0.5%
TUESDAY, Oct. 30
9 am S&P Case-Shiller home prices Aug.   -- 1.6%
10 am Consumer confidence Oct.   74.0 70.3
8:30 am Employment cost index 3Q   -- 0.5%
9;45 am Chicago PMI Oct.   -- 49.7
8:15 am ADP employment report Oct.   -- 88,200
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 10-27
367,000 369,000
8:30 am Productivity 3Q   1.8% 2.5%
9 am Markit PMI Oct.   -- 51.3
10 am ISM Oct.   51.0 51.5
10 am Construction spending Sept.
0.7% -0.6%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Oct.   15.0 mln 14.9 mln
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Oct.
120,000 114,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Oct.   7.9% 7.8%
10 am Factory orders Sept.   4.5% -5.2%

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Financial Astrology: Metals Under Accumulation

By Karen Starich

The recent pullback in silver is counter intuitive to the HUI and suggests something is not jiving with the paper price of silver.  There are currently very strong aspects with Jupiter (silver) and Saturn (gold and mining) to the U.S. chart that would suggest institutional investors acquiring large amounts of the precious metals.  There could be more backwardation going on behind the scenes as the miners look bullish while the paper prices are moving lower.  Silver Wheaton (SLW),  Pan American Silver (PAAS),  Mag Silver (MVG), and Coeur D Alene (CDE) have not pulled back in line with the paper price and continue to look bullish.

I would have expected more of a bounce with the paper price along with the Jupiter/Saturn aspects, and that has not materialized.  There is another opportunity for the silver price to move higher near November 6th-23rd, so we will have to see how that plays out.  We may continue to see smaller incremental moves for silver into the end of 2012.

There is a transit to the Federal Reserve chart from the planet Hades that could be very debilitating to the price of silver and gold.  Hades (rules banking) is opposing the Federal Reserve Sun in Capricorn (gold and mining) and suggests an intensifying tug of war over the control of the metals. Hades moves very slow so this transit will be hanging around until mid 2014.  The influence is very exhausting as neither side wants to give in.  We have the bullion banks on one side manipulating through paper transactions and lease agreements, and the gold and mining bugs on the other with their vast network of investors and website propaganda machines.

In order to get another very bullish run we will have to have some very strong transits with Uranus to throw the banks off balance.  That may happen in April of 2013 when Uranus will square the U.S. Sun then oppose the U.S. Saturn while at the same time making an inconjunct to the Federal Reserve Moon.  The setup suggests there could be a change of leadership coming within the Federal Reserve and we could see an explosive move for silver near April 4th-10th of 2013.

The Dollar is Doomed: Asian Economies Turn to Yuan

by Gao Changxin, China Daily:
A “renminbi bloc” has been formed in East Asia, as nations in the region abandon the US dollar and peg their currency to the Chinese yuan — a major signal of China’s successful bid to internationalize its currency, a research report has said.
The Peterson Institute for International Economics, or PIIE, said in its latest research that China has moved closer to its long-term goal for the renminbi to become a global reserve currency.
Since the global financial crisis, the report said, more and more nations, especially emerging economies, see the yuan as the main reference currency when setting their exchange rate.
And now seven out of 10 economies in the region — including South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand — track the renminbi more closely than they do the US dollar. Only three economies in the group — Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Mongolia — still have currencies following the dollar more closely than the renminbi, said the report, posted on the institute’s website.
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Hard-Pressed Canadian Homeowners Just Close Their Eyes and Borrow Some More

by Kelly McParland
National Post

Canadians will learn an ugly lesson if they keep piling on debt the way they are at the moment.
The Bank of Montreal report that came out Monday and noted that almost three-quarters of homeowners would feel a significant squeeze from even a small rise in interest rates shows just how close Canadians are to falling over the edge of their finances. What it means, in essence, is that 73% of the people surveyed can’t afford their own homes. And a lot of them are already feeling the pinch.
A third have cut back on other spending so they can make the mortgage payment. One in six has been forced to raid their savings to pay current costs. This is at a time when interest rates are at historic lows, which means they can only go up from here. That they will rise, eventually, is inevitable. Yet 16% of the people in the survey said they might not be able to make their payments if rates rose by even a tenth.
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Chinese stocks are going to rise whilst the DJIA falls...the InvesTRAC model shows that the decline in the SSE/DJIA ratio which peaked at 0.4566 in January 2008 bottomed at 0.1489 last month after an almost 70% underperformance...this means that the ratio is now going up as the SSE (Shanghai All Share index) beats the DJIA hands down. The SSE has fallen from a high of 6429.6 to a low of 1749 and it is in the process of correcting this decline whilst the Dow is busy correcting its rise. The chart of the SSE/DJIA ratio above shows this year's history and whilst the SSE needs to beat resistance at 2138 to keep rising, the ratio has clearly reversed and is headed higher. If you want to be in equities you know what to do...the InvesTRAC model says be long SSE and short DJIA. ...check the Global Seven scorecard at

The Nuclear Situation Nobody is Talking About

We're in a new era. I call it the era of scarcity.

Around the world, literally billions of people are all fighting for the same limited resources.

Once you burn a barrel of oil or a ton of coal, it's gone forever. Demand keeps going up, and supplies keep shrinking, leading to steady price increases for these expiring resources.

But that's not a reason to fear. It's an opportunity to profit. And right now, there's a situation of scarcity that almost no one is talking about. Yet the consequences could be felt by every American. And only savvy investors who are ahead of the game will be ready to profit.

Here are the details...  (more)

The Road To Bullion Default: Part II

by Jeff Nielson
Bullion Bulls Canada

In Part I, readers were reminded yet again of the totally unsustainable parameters in the gold and silver markets. To be specific, manipulating gold and silver prices lower (for several decades) is resulting in the collapse of inventories – with the only possible long-term outcome being the collapse of the bankers’ fraudulent paper-bullion markets.
As with any other item, the collapse in inventories (and the increasing scarcity that implies) means that gold and silver prices must concurrently soar as the banksters’ paper-bullion scams collapse. Putting these two factors together, readers will soon see that the final rupturing of the paper-bullion markets does not necessarily have to result from any sort of formal default event.
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If Romney Wins, Expect the End of Quantitative Easing

It’s been nearly eight years, since Fed chief Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee at his confirmation hearing, that “with respect to monetary policy, I will make continuity with the policies and policy strategies of the Greenspan Fed a top priority.” The former Princeton University professor who served as a Fed governor from August 2002 to June 2005 before accepting the post as President George W. Bush’s top economic adviser, also pledged, “I will be strictly independent of all political influences,” Bernanke said.

History will show that Bernanke did follow in the footsteps of his mentor for the first 3-½ years of his tenure. The infamous “Greenspan Put,” or the knee-jerk reaction by the Fed to rescue the stock market whenever risky bets went sour, - through massive injections of liquidity and reductions in interest rates, - was seamlessly replaced by the “Bernanke Put.” Since Bernanke gained control over the money spigots, the Fed continued to expand the MZM money supply by +65% to a record $11.3-trillion today. That’s an increase of about +9.4% per year, on average. The yellow metal never traded a nickel lower since Mr Bush tapped Bernanke to become the next Fed chief in Nov 2005, when the price of Gold was $468 /oz. Today, Gold is hovering around $1,735 /oz, up +370% for an annualized gain of +57%, - highlighting the most devastating blow to the purchasing power of the US-dollar of all-time. 

Following the stock market crash of 2008, Bernanke decided to take US-monetary policy down a very dangerous path that his predecessor had never explored. Bernanke experimented with the nuclear options of central banking, - unleashing powerful weapons for the first time in the US, such as “Quantitative Easing,” (QE), the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), and “Operation Twist.” These weapons were forcefully deployed in order to artificially re-inflate the value of the US-stock market, and in turn, help to boost President Barack Obama’s chances at winning re-election. Bernanke borrowed the blueprints of the Bank of Japan, - the original pioneer in QE and ZIRP, dating back to March of 2001. The Fed was able to engineer a doubling of the S&P-500’s market value in just three-years, for a gain of $7-trillion, from the bottom of the brutal Bear market that came to a merciful end in March of 2009.

However, the Fed chief broke his promise to stay above the political fray, when on Sept 13th, Bernanke and his band of super doves, decided to unleash “Infinity QE-3” or the unlimited printing of money, at an initial rate of $40-billion per month, with less than eight weeks left in the race for the White House. The Fed crossed the line by brazenly supporting the President in his bid for re-election. By jolting the stock market higher, Fed aimed to conjure-up the illusion among the general public of an economic recovery looming on the horizon that would in the short-term, boost consumer confidence, and the opinion polls for Barack Obama.  (more)

Foreclosures fall in 62% of U.S. cities

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Foreclosures fell in nearly two-thirds of the nation's largest metro areas during the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac Thursday.

With 62% of the nation's 212 largest markets seeing foreclosure activity shrink during the latest quarter, the ongoing decline is yet another sign that the housing market is starting to stabilize.

During September, foreclosure activity in 58% of the major metro markets had even dropped below September 2007 levels.

The numbers indicate that "most of the nation's housing markets are past the worst of the foreclosure problem," Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac's vice president said in the report.

Major cities like San Francisco, Detroit, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Diego saw foreclosures fall by double-digit percentages of 26% or more. (more)

Friday, October 26, 2012

James Turk – The Entire German Gold Hoard Is Gone

from KingWorldNews:

Today James Turk shocked King World News when he stated, “The entire German gold hoard was gone because it had been leased into the marketplace. Meaning, the vaults holding German gold were emptied by 2001 because of the Bundesbank leasing activities.”
Turk added, “Half of the gold they (the Germans) leased themselves. The other half of Germany’s gold hoard was eventually leased into the market as well through complicated swaps with the US. But the reality is that as of 2001, all of that German gold was gone. Meaning all German gold worldwide, which was supposed to be stored in vaults, the vaults were emptied of German gold and the gold was leased into the market.”
Turk went on to say, “It’s uncertain if any that leased gold has ever been returned to those vaults. Meaning, the vaults which are supposed to be storing the German gold hoard may still be empty.”
James Turk continues @

If You Are Holding This Investment, It's Time to Go to Cash

Relative strength (RS) is a useful indicator, but it can be difficult to apply to the broad stock market averages. Although there are minor differences in their short-term moves, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and other indexes tend to move in the same direction over weeks and months. Because RS calculations usually use 3-12 months worth of data, the small differences in the daily price moves are missed and the RS of any index tends to move erratically.

One way that I address this problem is to compare ETFs like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) to a list of more than 27,000 stocks that trade around the world. This technique shows when SPY is among the best investments in the world, or, at times like this, when it is actually among the worst performers.
SPY Chart
With a RS rank of 23 we can see that 77% of the stocks traded around the world are outperforming SPY. At the bottom of the chart is the 26-week rate of change (ROC) of SPY, along with a 39-week moving average of the ROC. This indicator is bearish with ROC below the moving average. (more)

The Road to Bullion Default: Part I

Momentous events have taken place in global markets. With both the U.S. and EU announcing “open-ended”/”unlimited” money-printing (respectively); the exponentially increasing money-printing taking place in bankrupt Western economies has escalated to simply infinite money-printing.
This is nothing less than a death-knell for all Western fiat currencies, and our final warning that hyperinflation is now an inevitable fate. All that remains is for the (currently) clueless masses to realize that the paper they are carrying in their wallets is (in fact) nothing but paper – and then our own, modern Tulipmania will come to an ignominious end.
Gold and silver prices naturally reacted to this monetary insanity by jumping higher, reflecting the explosion which must take place in most asset prices; as our paper currencies plunge to their real value: zero. However, the rally was halted by a desperate counter-attack on bullion markets – with the result being that bullion prices have now trended sideways to lower for the past several weeks.
It’s important for readers to understand that there is no way the newly-announced money-printing has been (or could ever be) “priced into” metals markets. As the simplest of tautologies, you can never “price in” infinity into any market. Open-ended/unlimited money-printing means nothing less than an endless spiral higher in asset prices – until all this banker-paper meets the same fate as all previous fiat currencies: utter worthlessness.  (more)

Canada Finance Minister Flaherty eyes privatization of CMHC

When Finance Minister Jim Flaherty took steps to cool the housing market over the past four years, he largely did so via the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the Crown corporation that dominates the mortgage insurance market.

Now he says his interventions in the housing market are at an end – and he would like to see the CMHC privatized in the next five to 10 years.

“We’ve taken four steps over the last four years to reduce the exposure there for taxpayers, so I don’t think there’s a lot more to do with CMHC or mortgage insurance, certainly not in the foreseeable future,” Mr. Flaherty said in an interview.

Mr. Flaherty’s goal has been to steer the market away from the extremes that rocked the U.S. economy, and to keep mortgage debt loads under control despite the lure of low interest rates.

But the Finance Minister has also been aiming to cut the amount of exposure that taxpayers have to the housing market by way of mortgage insurance and CMHC.  (more)

US 30YR Bond Futures Could Head to 142

US equity markets have experienced an overnight bounce and the SP 500 futures are currently trading slightly positive at +.32%. We speculate that there are many bullish fund managers out there that are finding these levels very attractive to buy. We also see the 1380 level as the next key support for this market. However, we will be very surprised at this point if the market holds beneath that level for long. US economic data is coming out neutral to positive, and yesterday’s earnings for larger companies were stronger than the recent earnings season trends. Of course the pending election may still be keeping money on the “sidelines” waiting for econo-political clarity. We may be in for a very interesting close to 2012. Santa Claus rally anyone? We shall wait and see.
We really would like you to focus on the US 30 year bond market today, and look at our chart analysis. We notice a key resistance level of 150 which has held nicely since September. The 30 YR made another push to 150 this month but could not hold above that key level.  We also notice a downtrend channel starting in August, which we have indicated by drawing the resistance trend line. You will see an 8 point down-move in September highlighted. If we see another 8 point down-move from October highs of 150, the 30YR bond futures (DEC 12) will get to the 142 area. This is our first target for a bearish move from these levels.
Our downside pivot is 145’16. If the market breaks this level, we look for 142 to be hit. With US economic activity picking up, and the US stock market near yearly highs, we see a Bond down-move as a distinct possibility.
30 YR Treasury Bond chart

KWN Update – Here Is A Huge Key To The Markets

from King World News
With tremendous volatility in global markets, investors and professionals are wondering where the markets are headed from here. This piece will provide a huge clue for investors. Today King World News wanted share with its readers key portions from the latest Investors Intelligence report.
This is an extremely important piece because it shows a significant change in the bullish readings into this recent market decline. Here is the latest Investors Intelligence report: “Index and indicator charts achieved highs on 14-Sep and the overall trading for the last two months shows large tops forming. Recent weeks have included the start of breakdowns from the peaks with down and up trading, including lower highs and lower lows.”
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Dow Jones/UBS Commodities Index Change to Benefit the Precious Metals

by Dan Norcini
Trader Dan Norcini

Every year, the various commodity indices, that are used by hedge funds and index funds to benchmark against, have a reweighting of the various commodity inputs that are used to comprise each particular index. During this reweighting process, the percentage of some commodities are increased while the percentage of others are decreased. As a result, those funds benchmarking against the index, are forced to recalibrate their particular portfolios, selling some commodity positions while buying some new commodity positions in order to come into alignment with the new weightings.
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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Dollar Sell-off and Hyperinflation by 2014 – John Williams

by Greg Hunter, USAWatchdog:
Economist John Williams says the latest round of “open-ended” QE has set the table for a global “dollar sell-off” and “hyperinflation” no later than 2014. Williams says, “There’s no way the consumer can fuel the economic recovery, and there is no way we’re going to see one in the near future.” Williams predicts, “The Treasury is going to have funding problems, and that means the deficit gets a lot worse.”

Now, there is talk the Fed might increase the money printing. Williams charges, “The Fed’s primary concern is to keep the banking system afloat, and they’re not doing so well with that.” Williams contends there is 12 trillion in liquid dollar assets held outside the U.S. Williams says it is only a matter of time before all the Fed money printing will “trigger a sell-off . . . and that will provide the early start of the hyperinflation.” You think the U.S. is better off today than it was in the last meltdown? Not according to Williams, he thinks, “. . . things have gotten a lot worse.” Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with John Williams of
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“The Market Isn’t as Bad as You Think” – Rick Rule

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

A Meeting With the Brightest Minds

- What happens if interest rates stay low for years?
- What does oil inflation look like?
- With gold it’s all about low supply and high demand.
Read | Subscribe@iTunes

This 464% Gainer Still Has Plenty of Room to Run: DPZ

Back in 1960, this Michigan-based company was purchased for $500. Today, it's worth billions. Over this same period, the company has grown from one store to thousands across the United States.
Today, Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) is the second largest pizza chain in America, behind only Pizza Hut, which is owned by Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM).
Domino's also has a strong -- and growing -- international presence. It currently operates over 10,000 franchised and company-owned stores in 60 countries. In the most recent third-quarter, Domino's opened 121 new international stores. By the end of this year, management plans to open 500 new overseas locations.
In addition to international expansion, continual product innovation is helping drive growth. In 2011, the company changed its primary pizza recipe, adding a sweeter tomato sauce, higher quality cheese and a garlic-seasoned crust. This September, Domino's began offering deep dish pizza. According to Domino's CEO, 20% of U.S. pizza sales are deep dish, so Domino's is tapping into a large market -- one that not a lot of other pizza chains cater to. Online sales are also helping spur growth with over 40% of sales now taking place online.
All of these factors are helping drive the stock price up.
DPZ Chart
Shares have been on a major uptrend for the past three years, rocketing over 464%, from their November 2010 low of $7.09, to the current share price near $40. And the stock shows no signs of slowing down here.  (more)

Richard Russell – The Bear Is Angry & Bernanke Wants Out /

Today the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, writes, “Friends of Fed chief Ben Bernanke say that Bernanke may not want a second term as Fed head.  The Russell opinion is that Bernanke realizes that he is losing his war against the primary trend, and that he has had enough.”  Right into the teeth of Bernanke’s troubles, Russell added, “I believe the bear is angry and is re-establishing himself.”

In his latest note to subscribers, here are Russell’s thoughts: “Many subscribers think that Richard Russell is a perpetual bear and that nothing will turn him bullish.  They could not be more wrong.  I call ‘em the way I see ‘em.  In 1957 I built my business on my lone bullishness, and I wrote a bullish article for Barron’s in late 1957 which sought to prove that a bull market was still in force, despite almost universal bearishness at the time (the nation was in the throes of a severe recession at the time).”

Richard Russell continues:
“Back in late 1974, I stood alone as probably the only bullish analyst in the business.  What I mean to say is that I call it the way I see it, based on my own reading of the market, and regardless of what the popular opinion is at the time.  Frankly, I would love to be bullish today, for the sake of my business and for the sake of my five children and for the sake of the United States, the land that I love.
I’ve stated that a primary bear market started in October 2007, with the Dow at 14,164, and that the same primary bear market is still in force.  The period of 2009 to its recent high was an upward correction, a ‘breather’ that came within the confines of the continuing bear market.

As I write this, I believe that the bear market is resuming.  The ‘breather’ convinced many experts and name analysts that a new bull market had arrived.  I disagreed.  The Bernanke Fed came in with their QE4 to infinity, and that further convinced many analysts that the worst was behind us and that the Fed had the situation well in hand.

Peter Grandich: Precious Metals is in the Mother of All Bull Market

Wall St for Main St interviewed former Wall St trader and analyst Peter Grandich. We asked him about the lack of quality education in the U.S. and student loan bubble, why gold and silver will continue to outperform the rest of the market, the bond market and Americans personal finance attitude and behavior.

Gasoline Losing Streak Hits Longest in 26 Years on Supply

Gasoline fell for a 10th consecutive day, extending a losing streak to the longest since the start of New York futures trading in 1986, as fuel supplies surged to the highest level in almost two months.

Futures slipped after the Energy Department reported stockpiles rose 1.44 million barrels to 198.6 million, the highest level since Aug. 31. The median forecast by 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg called for an increase of 500,000 barrels. The fuel is down 22 percent this month as refineries, including Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)’s Trainer plant, started units.

“We’ve seen the restart of the Trainer refinery and restart of a number of other units that could supply the East Coast, so the supply situation has improved,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC, an energy consulting firm in Houston, Texas, said by phone. “In conjunction with the supply improvement, this is the time of year we expect this type of pressure on gasoline.” (more)

Chart of the Day - Harley-Davidson (HOG)

The "Chart of the Day" is Harley-Davidson (HOG), which showed up on Tuesday's Barchart "3-Month High" list. Harley-Davidson on Tuesday posted a new 3-1/2 month high and closed +7.72%. TrendSpotter has been long since last Thursday at $44.53. In recent news on the stock, Harley-Davidson on Tuesday reported Q3 EPS of 59 cents, slightly above the consensus of 58 cents. JP Morgan on Oct 19 upgraded Harley-Davidson to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target sharply to $56 from $38. Goldman Sachs on Oct 18 upgraded Harley-Davidson to Buy from Neutral with a target of $54 based on valuation, an acceleration in motorcycle registrations, and expectations for an improvement in construction employment. Harley-Davidson, with a market cap of $10 billion, is an American motorcycle manufacturer.


Wednesday, October 24, 2012

People Are Getting Scared And Liquidating & Germany’s Gold

from KingWorldNews:

With global markets trading in the red, including gold and silver, today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about the action in the metals, and the Germans looking to audit and repatriate some of their gold: “Desperation leads to desperate measures, and yes, could entities be hiding gold or not having what they say they have? Absolutely.” Leeb also said, “… somebody is holding (the price of) gold back.”
Here is what Leeb had to say: “People are getting scared. I guess there’s some liquidation of virtually everything on the basis of these fears. Gold, though down, is certainly down less than virtually every other asset. Even silver, which is extremely volatile both on the upside and downside, is down about 1%, which is a lot less than the market.”
Stephen Leeb continues @

Briggs & Stratton Corporation (NYSE: BGG)

Briggs & Stratton Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, and services air cooled gasoline engines for outdoor power equipment worldwide. It operates in two segments, Engines and Power Products. The Engines segment offers aluminum alloy gasoline engines for lawn and garden equipment applications, including walk-behind lawn mowers, riding lawn mowers, garden tillers, and snow throwers, as well as engines primarily to original equipment manufacturers for use in industrial, construction, agricultural, and other consumer applications that include generators, pumps, and pressure washers. It also manufactures and sells replacement engines, and service parts to sales and service distributors. The Power Products segment offers portable and standby generators, pressure washers, snow throwers, and lawn and garden powered equipment. This segment sells its products through various channels of retail distribution, including consumer home centers, warehouse clubs, mass merchants, and independent dealers under brands such as Briggs & Stratton, Snapper, Simplicity, Ferris, Snapper Pro, Murray, and Victa, as well as other brands consisting of Craftsman, John Deere, GE, and Troy-Bilt.

To review Briggs & Stratton's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of BGG (Briggs & Stratton, Inc.) below with my added notations:

1-year chart of BGG (Briggs & Stratton, Inc.)

BGG had been trading mostly sideways from March through August. However, during that period of time the stock created a key resistance level at $18.50 (navy). That resistance level was a 52-week high breakout when the stock broke above it in September. That breakout was a signal that the stock should be moving higher, which the stock did do. Now that BGG is pulling back, the old $18.5 resistance should provide support for the stock, which it has already done once this month.

The other thing to notice about BGG is the downtrending resistance (red) that the stock has created over the last month. Soon the stock will have to break through that resistance if the stock is to continue it's 52-week breakout move higher.