Monday, December 1, 2014

‘We Are Entering A New Oil Normal” / by Jawad Mian via Outside the Box / 11/30/2014 13:14
Investment Observations
The precipitous decline in the price of oil is perhaps one of the most bearish macro developments this year. We believe we are entering a “new oil normal,” where oil prices stay lower for longer.While we highlighted the risk of a near-term decline in the oil price in our July newsletter, we failed to adjust our portfolio sufficiently to reflect such a scenario. This month we identify the major implications of our revised energy thesis.

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Stock Market Bullish Sentiment Back Above 50%

After dipping slightly below 50% last week, bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors rebounded this week, moving bulls back into the majority.  According to the weekly sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), bullish sentiment increased from 49.12% up to 52.15%.  This marks the eighth straight week that bullish sentiment has been above its bull market average of 38.6%, which is also the longest streak we have seen in 2014.

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Best Solar Stocks to Buy for 2015: SCTY, FSLR, SPWR, VSLR, SUNE

As we enter 2015, one of the most exciting emerging industries for investors is solar energy. The industry has been embattled for much of the past decade, but it's now competitive with fossil fuels without subsidies in many parts of the world, and over the next few years more and more markets will become economical.
For investors, there are a number of ways to play the industry, from solar manufacturers to fully integrated companies.
For years, investors have been avoiding solar panel manufacturers. The industry is often viewed as a commodity industry, but the narrative is starting to change as investors and consumers begin to understand solar technology. (more)

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Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL)

Trina Solar Limited operates as an integrated solar-power products manufacturer and solar system developer in the People’s Republic of China, Europe, the United States, and other Asia Pacific regions. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells photovoltaic (PV) modules comprising monocrystalline PV modules ranging in various power outputs; and multicrystalline PV modules ranging from 230 W to 310 W in power output for use in residential, commercial, industrial, and other solar power generation systems. It also provides mono- and multi-crystalline silicon ingots, wafers, cells, and related products, as well as PV modules for customer and end-user specifications.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Trina (NYSE: TSL) below with the added notations:
1-year chart of Trina (NYSE: TSL)
TSL has been slowly chopping its way lower for most of the year. However, since bottoming in October, the stock seems to have stabilized and has been working its way slightly higher. Twice over the last 2 months TSL has found resistance at the $11 level (black), which was also a common support back in the summer. A break back above $11 should result in higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: TSL has a key level at $11. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $11 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on the stock, or the market overall, a short trade could be made at the $11 level instead.
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Swiss voters reject gold initiative

ZURICH (Reuters) - Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected proposals on Sunday that would have forced the central bank to buy huge amounts of gold and imposed strict curbs on immigration, in what is seen as a result strengthening Swiss ties with the European Union.
The measures proposed on Sunday reflect a growing sense that Switzerland is under siege by foreign workers eroding its Alpine culture and trading partners who have insisted in recent years that the Swiss dismantle their business model based on banking secrecy.
The "Save our Swiss gold" initiative failed to secure a winning vote in a majority of Swiss cantons, the so-called "cantonal majority" required for the initiative to pass, according to data from Swiss broadcaster SRF. (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
9:45 am Markit PMI Nov.   -- 54.7
10 am ISM Nov.   57.7% 59.0%
10 am Construction spending Oct.   0.5% -0.4%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Nov.   16.7 mln 16.5 mln
8:15 am ADP employment Nov.   -- 230,000
8:30 am Productivity Q3   2.4% 2.0%
8:30 am Unit labor costs Q3   -0.5% 0.3%
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing Nov.   57.7% 57.1%
2 pm Beige Book        
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Nov. 29   300,000 313,000
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Nov.
235,000 214,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Nov.   5.7% 5.8%
8:30 am Trade deficit Oct.   -$40.9 bln -$43.0 bln
10 am Factory orders Oct.   -0.4% -0.6%
3 pm Consumer credit Oct.   -- $15.9 bln
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