Saturday, August 8, 2009

Tudor Investment Calls Stock Gain a Bear-Market Rally

- Tudor Investment Corp., the $10.8 billion hedge-fund firm run by Paul Tudor Jones, said equity markets could decline later this year, creating buying opportunities.

Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.

Tudor said the 47 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies since March 9, when it fell to a 12-year low, is a “bear-market rally.” The index topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months this week after companies reported better-than-expected profits. (more)

Recession is over, says economist

When economist Dennis Gartman told subscribers of his newsletter in the fall of 2007 that the U.S. was entering a recession, the Dow was at 13,500, and the official government call wouldn't come for another full year.

Now he's ahead of officials and forecasters again. According to Gartman, the U.S. recession that started in December 2007 is done.

"We saw it happen two weeks ago -- it's over," he said in a recent interview. (more)

‘Lost Couple of Decades’ Looming for U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy may be just as sluggish during the next 20 years as Japan’s economy was in the last 20, according to Comstock Partners, a money manager founded and run by Charles Minter.

Stimulus programs and a surging money supply aren’t likely to “solve a problem of excess debt generation that resulted from greed and living way beyond our means,” the firm wrote yesterday in an unsigned report on its Web site. “We could wind up with a lost couple of decades.”

The CHART OF THE DAY shows U.S. total debt and gross domestic product since 1952, along with the ratio between them, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The ratio rose in the first quarter to 372 percent even as household borrowing dropped for a second straight quarter, an unprecedented streak. (more)

Baltic Dry Index Has Worst Week Since October as Demand Slows

The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, had its worst week since October as Chinese demand for shipments of coal and iron ore slowed.

The index tracking transportation costs on international trade routes today slid 135 points, or 4.6 percent, to 2,772 points, according to the Baltic Exchange. That took its weekly drop to 17 percent, the most since the end of October.

“The Chinese have backed off and it’s starting to show in the number of shipments this month,” Gavin Durrell, a Cape Town-based official at Island View Shipping SA, Africa’s biggest commodities shipping line, said by phone today. “Iron ore and coal seem to be slowing down.” (more)

The Wall Street Journal Asia - August 07-09, 2009 (Weekend Section)

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World Financial Report August 7, 2009

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Business Week - August, 17 2009

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