Monday, July 19, 2010
Don’t bet on a 2010 economic recovery. 10 stunning charts showing no housing recovery moving forward and weak employment growth. Employment, construct
The bull market ended in the first Qtr of 2000. What followed was a normal correction in 2002, and then a retest of the market high. Why do we call it a retest if a higher high were made in the final Qtr 2007?
It sometimes happens that way, and this was one of those times. Note the size of the bars and the shorter duration in time to reach low in 2002, 11 Qtrs. Contrast that with the smaller ranges on a more labored rally to retest the high, 20 Qtrs, almost twice as long to cover the same ground lost. (more)
I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the sovereign debt crisis, and how it all ends. Today we explore a few musings I have had of late, while we look at some very interesting research. What will a world look like as a variety of nations have to deal with the end of their Debt Supercycle. We’ll jump right in with no "but first’s" this week.
Part of this week’s writing is colored by my next conference. Next week I go to Vancouver to speak at the Agora Investment Symposium. I have a number of very good friends who will be there, both speaking and attending. This is generally a "hard money," gold-bug-type crowd (and a very large conference). Some (but not all) of the speakers believe that all fiat currencies, including the US dollar, will default in one way or another, either outright or through inflation, as mounting debts and out-of-control entitlement obligations force large-scale monetization, leading to high inflation if not hyperinflation. (more)
The cocoa beans, which are sitting in warehouses either in The Netherlands, Hamburg, or closer to home in London, Liverpool or Humberside is equivalent to the entire supply of the commodity in Europe, and would fill more than five Titanics. They are worth £658 million.
Analysts said it was very unlikely that a chocolate company, such as Nestle or Kraft, or even their suppliers, would buy such a huge order in one go and that is was probable that one or a number of speculators, possibly hedge funds, had attempted to corner the market. By doing this, they would have control of the entire supply in Europe, forcing the price yet higher. (more)
Speaking to Bloomberg in a live interview Thursday, Faber said: " I am conviced the Fed will soon implement further quantitative easing," adding "and massively so".
"It will probably happen in september, October," Faber said, putting a timeline to his prediction.
Explaining his reasoning, he said: "The US economy is not robust".
Not buying into the good news brigade of commentators who believe the worst is behind us and the US economy is on the mend, he said: "We have mixed signals, but in general the economy is still weak". (more)
"Our numbers are always very accurate, so I was surprised at the discrepancy with the government's numbers," says Mayur, whose firm owns the TIPP polling unit, a polling partner for Investors' Business Daily and Christian Science Monitor. After all, the headline number shows the U.S. unemployment rate today is 9.5%, with a total of 14.6 million jobless people.
However, Mayur's polls continued to find much worse figures. The June poll turned up 27.8% of households with at least one member who's unemployed and looking for a job, while the latest poll conducted in the second week of July showed 28.6% in that situation. That translates to an unemployment rate of over 22%, says Mayur, who has started questioning the accuracy of the Labor Department's jobless numbers. (more)
|19/07/10 8:00||EZ||Cur/Acct Eur bn May||-3||-5.1|
|19/07/10 8:00||EZ||Inv Flows Eur bn May||n/a||18.5|
|19/07/10 17:00||US||NAHB Index Jul||15||17|
|20/07/10 6:15||CH||Trade CHF bn Jun||n/a||0.818|
|20/07/10 12:30||US||Bldg Permits k May||590||574|
|20/07/10 12:30||US||House Starts k May||600||593|
|20/07/10 13:00||CA||BOC Rates (0.50%)||1.00%||0.50%|
|20/07/10 20:30||US||API Energy||n/a||n/a|
|21/07/10 8:30||UK||Ret Sls mm Jun||0.50%||0.60%|
|21/07/10 8:30||UK||Ret Sls yy Jun||1.00%||2.20%|
|21/07/10 8:30||UK||BOE Minutes||n/a||n/a|
|21/07/10 11:00||US||WK Mortgage Stats||n/a||n/a|
|21/07/10 14:30||US||EIA Crude mn||n/a||-5.06|
|21/07/10 14:30||US||EIA Distillate mn||n/a||1.6|
|21/07/10 14:30||US||EIA Gasoline mn||n/a||2.94|
|21/07/10 14:30||US||EIA Cap Util||n/a||90.50%|
|21/07/10 23:50||JA||BOJ Minutes||n/a||n/a|
|22/07/10 7:58||EZ||Mfg PMI flash Jun||55.2||55.6|
|22/07/10 7:58||EZ||Svc PMI flash Jun||55||55.5|
|22/07/10 9:00||EZ||May New Ind Ord mm||0.00%||0.90%|
|22/07/10 9:00||EZ||May New Ind Ord yy||20.20%||22.10%|
|22/07/10 12:30||CA||Retail Sales - May||n/a||-2.00%|
|22/07/10 12:30||CA||RS x-auto - May||n/a||-1.20%|
|22/07/10 12:30||US||WKInit Claims k||n/a||429|
|22/07/10 12:30||US||WKConClaims m||4.5||4.681|
|22/07/10 14:00||US||Lead Ind Jun||n/a||0.40%|
|22/07/10 14:00||US||Ex Hms m Jun||5.23||5.66|
|22/07/10 14:30||CA||BOC Policy Report||n/a||n/a|
|22/07/10 14:30||US||Nat Gas bcf||n/a||78|
|23/07/10 8:00||DE||IFO Climate Jul||n/a||101.8|
|23/07/10 8:00||DE||IFO Cond Jul||n/a||101.1|
|23/07/10 8:00||DE||IFO Expect Jul||n/a||102.4|
|23/07/10 8:30||UK||GDP qq 2Q||0.60%||0.30%|
|23/07/10 8:30||UK||GDP yy 2Q||1.10%||-0.20%|
|23/07/10 11:00||CA||BOC CPI yy Jun||n/a||1.80%|
|23/07/10 11:00||CA||CPI yy Jun||n/a||1.40%|
|23/07/10 13:00||BE||Lead Ind Jul||n/a||-7.7|