Wednesday, August 28, 2013

S&P 500 Futures Lose Critical Technical Level

For the first time since the most recent rally began in November, S&P 500 futures have retested (and broken below) the 100-day moving average within days of a previous break (without making new highs). It would appear the BTFD mentaliity is less exuberant with war and a tapering Fed in the background. And for those great rotators… 30Y yields are at 2 week lows…
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Get Ready For War The Dow Jones – Turning Down?

by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics

The US share market should have bottomed Friday/Monday. Instead, we inverted and made a meager high. This is not good at all. This warns we may see a test of the bottom of that channel next week or as late as the week of October 7th.
Everything is indicating Obama may start a war attacking Syria BEFORE Congress returns. September has been a major target this year all along. The fundamentals keep increasing for this target. We began with the German elections. Then we added the Debt Ceiling issue. But there is something even more serious why Obama needs a war and the mainstream press is lined up goose-stepping to whatever the Obama Administration dictates.
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First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)

First Solar, Inc. provides solar energy solutions. It operates in two segments, Components and Systems. The Components segment engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity. It primarily serves project developers, system integrators, and operators of renewable energy projects. The Systems segment provides turn-key photovoltaic solar power systems to investor owned utilities, independent power developers and producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. This segment provides project development; engineering, procurement, and construction; operating and maintenance; and project finance services.

To review First Solar’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of FSLR (First Solar, Inc.) below with my added notations:


After a strong rally from $25 in April, FSLR has formed a key level at $40 (navy) over the last (4) months, which has been recently been acting as support. In addition, the stock has formed a trendline of resistance (red) starting in the middle of May. These two levels combined had FSLR sandwiched within a common chart pattern known as a descending triangle. At some point, the stock had to break through one of those two levels and earlier this week the $40 support finally broke. The stock should be moving overall lower from here.

The Tale of the Tape: FSLR broke the support of its descending triangle. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up near $40. A break back above the $40 level would negate the forecast for a move lower and should be an opportunity to enter a long trade.
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Cash Cow Says MOO

The “soft” side of commodities generally means things that are grown, not mined, and includes just about every base ingredient in what we eat and drink.

Grains like wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with protein sources like beef, poultry, and pork combine with fruit, cocoa, sugar, and so on to form the basic staples of the world’s food supply.

These commodities enjoy vibrant and liquid futures markets around the world. Strategically speaking, two things will drive soft commodity prices around the world: the growth in population, and the growth in incomes. (more)

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Pipeline-Capacity Squeeze Reroutes Crude Oil

More crude oil is moving around the U.S. on trucks, barges and trains than at any point since the government began keeping records in 1981, as the energy industry devises ways to get around a pipeline-capacity shortage to take petroleum from new wells to refineries.

Getty Images Oil container cars sit at a train depot outside Williston, N.D.

The improvised approach is creating opportunities for transportation companies even as it strains roads and regulators. And it is a precursor to what may be a larger change: the construction of more than $40 billion in oil pipelines now under way or planned for the next few years, according to energy adviser Wood Mackenzie.

"We are in effect re-plumbing the country," says Curt Anastasio, chief executive of NuStar Energy LP, a pipeline company in San Antonio. Oil is "flowing in different directions and from new places."

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Richard Russell – Gold Set To “Catapult” $220, But Buy Silver

from KingWorldNews:
Richard Russell: “I don’t have to tell you that this is a “spooky” stock market. It’s nervous and spooky because it isn’t a normal supply-and-demand market, its a market that’s trying to psychoanalyze Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. Will they or won’t they “taper?” (Ugh, that disgusting word). And if they taper or not, will it be Summers or Yellen or someone else as the new head of the Federal Reserve? In all my years dealing with the stock market, I can’t remember anything this ridiculous and annoying.
Here below we have a P&F chart of gold, up-to-date as of Friday’s close. Some may call this a “cup and handle” formation and others may call it a modified head-and-shoulders formation. I just call it a catapult formation with a P&F price target of 1620. Of course, gold doesn’t have to surge straight up to 1620, but by hook or crook, one way or another, I believe we’ll see 1620 gold this year — in 2013.
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