Saturday, March 28, 2015

David Gurwitz - Charles Nenner Research: Gold, Stocks, and All Markets

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Superior Energy Services, Inc. (NYSE: SPN)

Superior Energy Services, Inc. provides specialized oilfield services and equipment to oil and gas companies in the United States, the Gulf of Mexico, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Drilling Products and Services; Onshore Completion and Workover Services; Production Services; and Technical Solutions. The Drilling Products and Services segment rents tubulars, and manufactures and rents bottom hole tools, including stabilizers, non-magnetic drill collars, and hole openers, as well as rents temporary onshore and offshore accommodation modules and accessories. The Onshore Completion and Workover Services segment offers pressure pumping services consisting of hydraulic fracturing and high pressure pumping services used to complete and stimulate production in new oil and gas wells. . The Production Services segment provides intervention services. The Technical Solutions segment offers pressure control services, completion tools and services, end-of-life services, and marine technical services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Superios (NYSE: SPN) below with the added notations:
1-year chart of Superios (NYSE: SPN)
SPN declined rapidly last fall, paused for a month or so, and then dropped again to its December low. Over that time the $23 price level (blue) has become very important to the stock. Not only was $23 a key support in October and November, but it has also been a tough resistance for the stock here as of late.

The Tale of the Tape: SPN has a key level at $23. A trader could enter a long position on a break above $23 with a stop placed under the level. However, if traders are bearish on SPN, a short trade could be made instead if the stock rallies up to $23.
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Gold & Silver Stocks Will Rise Again

by Gary Christenson
Deviant Investor

The XAU is an index of gold and silver stocks. It has been hammered hard since the gold and silver peaks in 2011.
The XAU bottomed in November 2014 below 62 at a 14 year low, down approximately 73% from its 2011 high at approximately 230. As of Friday March 20 it closed at 69.27.
I suspect that most investors gave up – long ago – on gold, silver and their stocks. Good! The upcoming multi-year rally will be a surprise and should move the XAU index beyond the 2011 highs.
Examine the 25 year graph of the XAU. The chart has been rising slowly but is currently deeply over-sold.
Continue Reading at…
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Bullish Reversal Could Score Traders Quick Profits in Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN)

The stock market is having a rough week, but I think this could be a short-term opportunity to buy when there's blood in the streets. As 18th century British nobleman Baron Rothschild knew, one of the best times to buy is when everyone else is selling. That's when the astute trader can pick up some good bargains.

I am looking at the market's leading sectors right now for stocks that got hit hard but maintained positive technicals. (more)

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Will You Survive The Next Bear Market ?

Since the beginning of January 2014 stocks have shown signs of institutional selling. This can be seen in the small capitalization stocks index the Russell 2000. This group of stocks generally leads the S&P 500.
Most bull market tops in the S&P 500 shown below take 8-12 months to form before it starts to fall in value. So far the market has been under distribution selling meaning the large traders (institutions, hedge funds) is selling their positions to the average investor to be left holding the bag when things go south.
The chart posted below shows some of my analysis of the SP500 index. This chart shows the 200 day moving average which is a great indicator of the major trend of the market. Green means bull market, red indicates bear market.
Also you will see the red ATR (Average True Range) indicator at the bottom. This tells us if the average daily movement for the index is high or low. When this red area rises we know there is a large amount of money flowing in and out of the equities market. It takes large amounts of capital to do this and is why the sellers are most likely hedge funds and institutions rebalancing their portfolios for an upcoming trend change.

If we step back and take a look at the bigger picture using the monthly chart of the S&P 500 we can foresee what is likely to happen in the next 12-36 months. The US stock market is losing momentum which can be seen by the relative strength indicator at the top of the chart.
Also the support trend line give us a feel on how soon a breakdown in price may happen. It appears to be just months away…

Taking things one large step further back, roughly 70 years you can see some patterns of that in the past. The question is not will there be a bear market, but how far will it correct?
The cart below shows a very bullish outlook of a minor correction of 30% in the next 36 months. Also I do have analysis that shows that if we break below the 30% level we could have a 50-60% correction which could trigger a chain reaction of issues including the US bond bubble to burst.

US Stock Market Conclusion:

In short, the US stock market continues to grind higher but with several warning signs to investors who know how to spot them.
There are three ways to play a bear market. The first is to do nothing, which is what most people do as they watch their life savings slowly evaporate right in front of them month after month.
Second, is to liquidate a large portion of equities and sit safely in cash while others lose money.
The third and last is to position yourself to profit from a falling market. It’s known that stocks fall 4-7 times faster than they rise, which means you can potentially make 7 years’ worth of profits in just 1-2 years if done correctly.
These are ways to play a bear market, and I say play because you do need to be a little more active to enter and lock in profits in this market condition.
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The Dollar Rally Is Over... For Now

The dollar rally is over... at least for the short term.
For the past eight months, the U.S. Dollar Index has been on fire – rallying from a low of 80 last July to a high of more than 100 early last week. That's a remarkable 25% gain for a currency.
And up until last week, most folks thought the gains would continue. You couldn't watch the financial networks for more than a few minutes without some talking head commenting on the strength of the dollar. (more)

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