Commodity collapse leads to rare opportunity

Commodities have had a rough go of it the past 4-years, declining almost 40%. The above charts look at the Thompson Reuters Commodity Index since the 1980’s.
The left chart is based upon “monthly closing prices,” reflecting that a neckline support test is at hand at (1).
The right chart is the same chart, based upon Hi/Lo/Closing prices. A dual test of support is in play at (1) in this chart.
Both charts reflect that  long-term tests of support are in play and support is support until broken. Often support like this is a place where at least a counter trend rally takes place.
US Dollar weakness and Commodity strength might surprise a few and could be a sign of some macro global strength could be at hand.
Joe Friday just the facts…. Commodities are testing strong support lines. What they do going forward could tell us a good deal about global growth or lack of going forward. A break of this support could signal growth concerns.
Bottom line-A rare an important price point for commodities is in play right now!

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Stocks To Watch: JCP, TASR, DGLY, XGTI, ZIOP, HTZ

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J C Penney Company Inc (NYSE:JCP) On a technical basis, the daily chart shows higher lows and higher highs, which is a positive trend suggesting bulls are still in control. The next high should be another higher high around the $10 level. Immediate resistance remains at 8.75, with a break above it required to confirm another leg higher. Weekly call options were hot on Friday. Additionally, this stock has been showing signs of accumulation over past couple weeks. Keep it in your watchlist for next week.

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Shares of TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR) made a new 52 week high on Friday closing at $32.37 on heavy volume. The stock hit a high of $33.23, which is now resistance for Monday’s continuation move. If the stock can break through resistance, we should see another upside move. The momentum indicators are all in bullish territory.

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Digital Ally, Inc.(NASDAQ:DGLY) showed buying strength all day on Friday. Price is slowly recovering. The 16-16.27 area is a critical resistance region that can determine overall bias for the stock in medium-term. Keep an eye on these levels. So far, momentum indicators are in favor of an upward price movement: The MACD has generated a buy signal and is currently above the 0 line and RSI is above its 50% level. On watch.

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xG Technology Inc (NASDAQ:XGTI) is approaching a key resistance level at 40c, a break above that resistance level would lead to an initial target in the 58-60c area, its January high and then to levels not seen since December 2014. Technical chart shows bullish sign with RSI above 50% levels and MACD on top of signal line.

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ZIOPHARM Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ:ZIOP) surged over 8% on decent volume, what looks like the start of a potential bounce. The stock is still oversold as evidenced by the stochastics and RSI, so there is still some chance that the stock may test the $11 levels in coming days. Stop loss must be placed at $8.6

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Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE:HTZ) had a solid breakout Friday on almost double its average volume in the midst of strong call option activity. The stock hit a high of $22.41 which is now resistance for Monday’s follow through move. Daily technical indicators are looking bullish. The MACD is negative but is rising above its signal line and Slow stochastic and RSI have re-entered their respective Bullish zones.

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Bonds (TLT) Generate Trend Model Neutral Signal on Breakaway Gap

Yesterday an Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal was generated on TLT, the ETF we use to calculate our official Trend Model signal. This combined with a breakdown from the congestion zone and a what appears to be a breakaway gap tells us there is likely more downside to come for bonds.
Let's look at the six-month bar chart for TLT. We can see that the Trend Model Neutral signal generated because the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA (seen best in the thumbnail). It was a Neutral signal and not a SELL signal because technically we consider TLT to be a "bull market" because the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. A Neutral signal implies that you go into cash or fully hedge. A SELL signal on the other hand would be a possible shorting opportunity. On the TLT chart there are also a few gaps that I'd like to point out.  (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et)	report	period	ACTUAL	CONSENSUS forecast	previous
MONDAY, MAY 4
10 am	Factory orders	March		2.4%	0.2%
TUESDAY,  MAY 5
8:30 am	Trade deficit	March		-$43.0 bln	-$35.4 bln
10 am	ISM nonmanufacturing	April		56.5%	56.5%
WEDNESDAY, MAY 6
8:15 am	ADP employment	April		--	189,000
8:30 am	Productivity	Q1		-1.4%	-2.2%
8:30 am	Unit labor costs	Q1		4.0%	4.1%
THURSDAY, MAY 7
8:30 am	Weekly jobless claims	May 2		277,000	262,000
3 pm	Consumer credit	March		--	$16 bln
FRIDAY, MAY 8
8:30 am	Nonfarm payrolls	April		220,000	126,000
8:30 am	Unemployment rate	April		5.4%	5.5%
8:30 am	Average hourly earnings	April		0.2%	0.3%
10 am	Wholesale inventories	March		--	0.3%

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