Canada's existing home sales fell 3.2% in October compared to
September, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. No big
deal right? After all
housing sales were brisk through the summer and bigger picture-wise
Canada's housing market has been on a near-constant upward trajectory
since 1997, hitting all-time highs on a regular basis.
While bearish commentary from most Canadian economists who has been
scarce, other institutions, and media outlets many of them outside the
country, have
been sounding a warning call for some time. Goldman Sachs, International
Monetary, The Economist and the Financial Times have argued the
Canadian market is
overcooked and ripe for a correction.
David Madani, Canada Economist with Capital Economics in Toronto has
been bearish on the Canadian housing market since 2011. He believes
Canada is in for a
prolonged and painful correction that could see prices fall by as much
as 25 percent.
That would be comparable to the last time the market crumbled in 1989/1990, which dragged on for the better part of a decade.(more)
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Monday, November 18, 2013
Trulia Inc (NYSE: TRLA)
Trulia, Inc. provides tools to research homes and neighborhoods for
consumers through Web and mobile applications. The company, through its
tools, also enables real estate professionals to market their listings.
It provides subscription and free products for real estate
professionals, as well as sells display media advertising. In addition,
the company offers information on schools, crime, neighborhood
amenities, home values, and other communities. It serves buyers,
sellers, and renters. The company was formerly known Realwide, Inc. and
changed its name to Trulia, Inc. in September 2005. Trulia, Inc. was
founded in 2005 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
To review a current H&S pattern on Trulia's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TRLA (Trulia, Inc) below with my added notations:
TRLA had rallied from a low of $15 last November to a peak of $52.50 in September. Over the last 3 months the stock had created a very important “neckline” of support at $40 (blue). Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (green). Confirmation of the H&S occurred earlier last week when TRLA broke its $40 “neckline”. So, the stock should be moving lower overall from here.
The Tale of the Tape: After rallying higher for (10) months, TRLA confirmed a head & shoulders pattern. A short trade could be entered on any rallies up to or near the $40 area. A significant break back above $40 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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To review a current H&S pattern on Trulia's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TRLA (Trulia, Inc) below with my added notations:
TRLA had rallied from a low of $15 last November to a peak of $52.50 in September. Over the last 3 months the stock had created a very important “neckline” of support at $40 (blue). Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (green). Confirmation of the H&S occurred earlier last week when TRLA broke its $40 “neckline”. So, the stock should be moving lower overall from here.
The Tale of the Tape: After rallying higher for (10) months, TRLA confirmed a head & shoulders pattern. A short trade could be entered on any rallies up to or near the $40 area. A significant break back above $40 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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My System Signals It's Time to Sell Italy, Buy Spain: EWI, EWP
Europe continues an uneven economic recovery, but the stock markets
of that region do have significant trading potential. This week, my 26-week rate of change (ROC) system is rotating from one European market into another.
Eurozone GDP data helps explain why the European Central Bank (ECB) recently surprised investors with an interest rate cut. Economic growth was lower than expected, and expectations had actually been very low to start with. GDP grew just 0.1% in the third quarter, down from the 0.3% expansion of the second quarter.
Germany led the eurozone with an expansion of 0.3%, in line with expectations but down sharply from the 0.7% growth of the previous quarter. Italy also met expectations with a decline of 0.1% for the quarter, the ninth straight quarterly contraction. Over the past 12 months, the Italian economy has contracted by 1.9%.
On the news, European markets were generally weak. The reaction to the news about Italy's mediocre performance caused my 26-week rate of change (ROC) system to issue a sell on iShares MSCI Italy Capped (NYSE: EWI). The relative strength (RS) rank of EWI also dipped below 70, which reinforces the sell signal.
While EWI has delivered a sizable gain this year, it is down about 4% since my system signaled a buy in mid-October,
and the ETF is still more than 50% below its 2007 high. U.S. stock
markets have fully recovered their bear market losses, but European
stocks are struggling to regain ground in a slow economy. (more)
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Eurozone GDP data helps explain why the European Central Bank (ECB) recently surprised investors with an interest rate cut. Economic growth was lower than expected, and expectations had actually been very low to start with. GDP grew just 0.1% in the third quarter, down from the 0.3% expansion of the second quarter.
Germany led the eurozone with an expansion of 0.3%, in line with expectations but down sharply from the 0.7% growth of the previous quarter. Italy also met expectations with a decline of 0.1% for the quarter, the ninth straight quarterly contraction. Over the past 12 months, the Italian economy has contracted by 1.9%.
On the news, European markets were generally weak. The reaction to the news about Italy's mediocre performance caused my 26-week rate of change (ROC) system to issue a sell on iShares MSCI Italy Capped (NYSE: EWI). The relative strength (RS) rank of EWI also dipped below 70, which reinforces the sell signal.
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2 Top Tech Stocks for 2014: Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM), Vringo Inc. (VRNG)
Around mid-December, financial analysts and commentators from all over will start releasing their forecasts for the upcoming year.
Whether it’s the economy, stock market, top trends, or companies — few areas are off limits.
That’s great and all. But for me, it’s not quite good enough… I mean, why wait until December?
You and I both know that when it comes to technology, the smart money is in before the rush. So let’s not hang around till next month and end up following the masses. Let’s get ahead of the curve instead. (more)
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Whether it’s the economy, stock market, top trends, or companies — few areas are off limits.
That’s great and all. But for me, it’s not quite good enough… I mean, why wait until December?
You and I both know that when it comes to technology, the smart money is in before the rush. So let’s not hang around till next month and end up following the masses. Let’s get ahead of the curve instead. (more)
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US Weekly Economic Calendar
time (et) | report | period | Actual | CONSENSUS forecast |
previous |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MONDAY, NOV. 18 | |||||
10 am | Home builders' index | Nov. | 55 | 55 | |
TUESDAY, NOV. 19 | |||||
8:30 am | Employment cost index | 3Q | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20 | |||||
8:30 am | Retail sales | Oct. | 0.0% | -0.1% | |
8:30 am | Retail sales ex-autos | Oct. | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
8:30 am | Consumer price index | Oct. | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
8:30 am | Core CPI | Oct. | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
10 am | Business inventories | Sept. | 0.4% | 0.3% | |
10 am | Existing home sales | Oct. | 5.10 mln | 5.29 mln | |
2 pm | FOMC minutes | 10/30 | |||
THURSDAY, NOV. 21 | |||||
8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 11/16 | 334,000 | 339,000 | |
8:30 am | Producer price index | Oct. | -0.1% | -0.1% | |
8:30 am | Core PPI | Oct. | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
8:58 am | Markit flash PMI | Nov. | -- | 51.8 | |
10 am | Philly Fed | Nov. | 16.5 | 19.8 | |
10 am | Leading indicators | Oct. | -- | ||
FRIDAY, NOV. 22 | |||||
10 am | Job openings | Sept. | 3.9 mln |
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