from King World News
In
the aftermath of the takedown in gold and silver, today the man who
predicted this downside action ahead of time spoke with King World News
about what investors should expect next. William Kaye, who is one of
the savviest and most well-connected hedge fund managers in the world,
also told KWN exactly why the plunge is being orchestrated and what will
emerge from all of this. Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman
Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, had this to say in his fascinating
interview.
Kaye: “I’m focused on the footprints which strongly suggest that the
gold cartel isn’t done yet. I continue to see the cartel making
strategic moves at the PM fix in London. The PM fix is a critical time
when countries like China show up to buy sizable amounts of gold….
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…
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Saturday, October 12, 2013
This Indicator Is Pointing to a Market Rally
Fear is in the air. The Volatility Index is spiking higher.
Washington is shut down. And the country is approaching its debt limit.
It's no wonder stocks are falling.
After hitting an all-time high of 1,725 three weeks ago, the
S&P 500 has tumbled 4%. Analysts and television talking heads are
jumping over themselves, making predictions that stocks have further to
fall.
But there's one indicator that suggests stocks are ready to bounce higher...
Take a look at this chart of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (the NYMO) plotted with its Bollinger Bands...
The NYMO is an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands help to indicate extreme moves on the chart.
Bollinger Bands measure the most probable trading range for a stock or an index. So whenever the NYMO moves outside of its Bollinger Bands, it indicates an extreme move – one that is likely to reverse.
The red circles on the chart show each time the McClellan Oscillator dropped below its lower Bollinger Band within in the past year.
Here's how those circles line up with the action in the S&P 500...
After every drop, the S&P 500 rallied immediately. Some of the
rallies – like the one in April – were short-term and only lasted a few
days. But the gains were there if you were quick enough to take them.
The McClellan Oscillator closed Tuesday at -63.65. That's a mild
negative reading compared to what it reached at the August and November
bottoms. So any rally off this level will likely be mild – maybe only 30
to 40 points.
Of course, nothing in the financial markets is ever guaranteed. And
stocks may keep falling in spite of the oversold reading. But history
is suggesting the market is gearing up for a bounce.
The 7 Critical Economic Indicators You Need To Check Every Morning
Everyone has a different opinion on how best to take the measure of the markets and the economy at large.
Hairs standing up on end, a knee that aches with the weather, tea leaves, earnings estimates, the Hindenburg Omen - it seems like all of these are significant in some way at one time or another.
Here at Money Morning, it's no different. We have an editorial meeting each and every morning - rain or shine - where the editors and writers huddle to pitch the stories and reporting we bring you every day. The meeting covers a huge range of financial and policy topics, and ideas of all stripes are kicked around and discussed until a solid story emerges.
A few days ago, we talked about important financial and economic indicators, where each of us turn to get some idea of the health of the markets and economy. Someone asked, "What's the number you look at first ever day?" We all answered in turn, and a really interesting collection of ideas began to emerge - as it always does. (more)
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Hairs standing up on end, a knee that aches with the weather, tea leaves, earnings estimates, the Hindenburg Omen - it seems like all of these are significant in some way at one time or another.
Here at Money Morning, it's no different. We have an editorial meeting each and every morning - rain or shine - where the editors and writers huddle to pitch the stories and reporting we bring you every day. The meeting covers a huge range of financial and policy topics, and ideas of all stripes are kicked around and discussed until a solid story emerges.
A few days ago, we talked about important financial and economic indicators, where each of us turn to get some idea of the health of the markets and economy. Someone asked, "What's the number you look at first ever day?" We all answered in turn, and a really interesting collection of ideas began to emerge - as it always does. (more)
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Yen may be easiest of upcoming currency trades
Successful trading doesn’t require that you know
where the market will go. It depends a great deal more on recognizing
high-probability set-ups, where entries are optimal and the risk of loss
is well defined (and hopefully small). That’s why the current picture
of the Dollar/Yen market is such a gift. The consolidation pattern that
has lasted through the spring and summer appears nearly complete, and
the currency pair is poised to break out in what should be a strong
move. There’s also a clear line to indicate where the trade would be
wrong, thus defining the risk.
Beginning just a
few days after the October 2011 high in the Yen (NYSEARCA:YCL,
NYSEARCA:YCS), we have charted and traded its progress downward. The
monthly chart below shows how the powerful downward wave of 2012-13
halted when it first found support at the edge of the channel. That also
coincided with the beginning of upward cyclical pressure. After it
found support, then Yen moved into what appears to be a triangle
pattern, which typically (but not always) breaks in favor of the
continuation trade. The next phase in the 11-month cycle also favors
continued downward movement.
The
triangle is easier to see on the weekly chart. If it is going to behave
as an Elliott Wave triangle and break downward, then the current
advance labeled as wave ‘e’ cannot exceed the previous high labeled as
wave ‘c’. This chart is an excellent example of why triangle trades can
present the best opportunities for optimal entry and placement of stops.
Note
also that the commodity channel index at the bottom of the weekly chart
is testing the zero-line from below. The indicator is confirming that
the present area as a decision point. If the indicator were to pull away
from the zero-line, it would support the bearish continuation scenario.
Initial
targets lower would include 0.009575 and 0.009082.
Diebold DBD: My Favorite Little-Known Dividend Stock to Buy Right Now
One of my all-time favorite companies is selling off right now...
And I'm not worried a bit about it falling much more.
How can I be so confident in saying this stock won't plummet?
Because people like income. They like dividends. And they like
safety. That's what this small-cap stock – and a handful of others like
it – provides.
The stock I'm talking about is Diebold (DBD). And while you
probably haven't heard of the company, it's one of the world's best
dividend-paying stocks.
Diebold is the world's No. 1 supplier of automatic teller machines (ATMs)
. It's also a leading supplier of security products, like bank vaults
and safes. It's a 150-year-old company. And it has increased its
dividend payment every year for 59 years, which is the longest streak of
any company in North America.
Over the last few months, Diebold has dropped about 15% from its
highs. But I don't expect the selloff to continue for much longer...
You see, even the 2008 financial crisis didn't stop Diebold from
raising its dividend payouts a few cents each quarter. In 2007, Diebold
paid $0.94 per share in dividends. In 2012, shareholders received a
total of $1.15 per share. That's almost a 4% yield at today's price.
With interest rates so low, there's a huge demand for safe, steady dividend-paying stocks.
And while most investors who want dividend income look to giant firms
like Coke and McDonald's, many small-cap firms also have extraordinary
records of consecutive dividend payments.
Diebold is one of the best. And its high yield is not the only
reason to buy this company. Over the next few years, we will see a huge
replacement cycle in ATMs.
These new ATMs are envelope-free. That means you can deposit checks
simply by placing them into the ATM. You can also buy stamps, transfer
payments between accounts, and have receipts sent directly to your
e-mail.
These machines are already being rolled out. It's just a matter of
time before banks all over the world are using these new Diebold ATMs.
Over the next few months, I expect the market will be weak. Stocks
have enjoyed a great run in the past year. They're due for a
profit-taking pullback. The debt-ceiling debate should put selling
pressure on the market. Plus, the average stock in the S&P 500 index
is trading at 15 times earnings. That's expensive considering earnings
are only expected to grow around 3% in the coming quarter.
The coming weakness could push the broad-market indexes 5%-10% below their current levels.
When this correction comes, look to buy small-cap companies like
Diebold. Although it might decline a few points from here, it's safe,
steady dividend will draw buying interest... just like it has for
decades.
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What history says about volatility and the debt ceiling crisis
Democrats and Republicans have been fighting over budgets and related
matters since before any of us were born and while the debate has been
heated at times, only recently has the credit of U.S. debt been called
into question as a result.
During the impasse that led to the government shutdowns of November 14-19, 1995 and December 16, 1995-January 6, 1996, for instance, there was nary a whiff of panic in the air, as the VIX never made it above 15 and spent a good portion of the shutdown in the 10s.
The last three instances of party budget squabbling have been much different than the Clinton-era budgetary battles. And one only has to watch the trajectory of the VIX during these battles to get a sense of the uncertainty, anxiety, and risk that was priced into SPX options during the period...
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During the impasse that led to the government shutdowns of November 14-19, 1995 and December 16, 1995-January 6, 1996, for instance, there was nary a whiff of panic in the air, as the VIX never made it above 15 and spent a good portion of the shutdown in the 10s.
The last three instances of party budget squabbling have been much different than the Clinton-era budgetary battles. And one only has to watch the trajectory of the VIX during these battles to get a sense of the uncertainty, anxiety, and risk that was priced into SPX options during the period...
Read full article...
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