Monday, August 3, 2009
Peter Grandich Commentary
U.S. Stock Market – I said in my July 17th update the attitude is to “Party on dude” and ignore the real problems for now. In my July 24th commentary, I noted we should not expect any bear sightings until at least the fall. I noted the technical picture had improved as well. It would be foolish to suggest from a technical outlook that the stock market is not technically strong at the moment. These are quite bullish formations and while they show the markets to be overbought, there’s no argument to be made that they suggest any serious declines for the foreseeable future. Technically, these charts suggest at the moment another 10% higher before any good selling opportunity presents itself. Ideally, it would be great if we went straight up to those levels without any meaningful correction as that would almost certainly become a screaming sell. But markets usually don’t make things easy so I remain on the sideline with mucho cash waiting for a real good opportunity. (more)
The Nature of Deception, Usury, and ETFs
When I first began studying Bible Prophecy just over 10 years ago, I was curious about the fact that there are False Prophets, or false interpretations. What's interesting is that false prophets are deceived, and they deceive their followers. And what's amazing is that those who are deceived don't know they are deceived. But what's more, it's truly frightening to realize that God Himself can deceive the false prophets! (more)
Market Review: Weakening Dollar, Rising Urban Unemployment
On Wednesday the Treasury’s five-year auction yield was 2.69% with 21.15% allotted at the high and bid to cover was 1.92 to 1. The average of the past ten auctions has been 2.20%. Indirect, central bank participation was 35.7% versus an average of 36.8%. Overall that was weak demand. Do not forget the Treasury has to raise $2 trillion by 9/30/09.
The result of these mediocre to poor auctions has to be more pressure on the dollar, as budget deficits continue to widen.
Mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks, driven by a drop in demand for refinancing loans. Both purchase and refi loans fell 6.3%.
This is an early appraisal of the Chinese visit to Washington. There is no question the Chinese have the Illuminists stymied. The big question is has China demanded the rest of our high technology expertise that Bill Clinton was unable to deliver to them? Or have they pledged government properties to the Chinese? (more)
The result of these mediocre to poor auctions has to be more pressure on the dollar, as budget deficits continue to widen.
Mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks, driven by a drop in demand for refinancing loans. Both purchase and refi loans fell 6.3%.
This is an early appraisal of the Chinese visit to Washington. There is no question the Chinese have the Illuminists stymied. The big question is has China demanded the rest of our high technology expertise that Bill Clinton was unable to deliver to them? Or have they pledged government properties to the Chinese? (more)
Obama officials: No guarantee taxes won't go up
President Barack Obama's treasury secretary said Sunday he cannot rule out higher taxes to help tame an exploding budget deficit, and his chief economic adviser would not dismiss raising them on middle-class Americans as part of a health care overhaul.
As the White House sought to balance campaign rhetoric with governing, officials appeared willing to extend unemployment benefits. With former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saying he is "pretty sure we've already seen the bottom" of the recession, Obama aides sought to defend the economic stimulus and calm a jittery public. (more)
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.
Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.
In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated. (more)
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