Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Just how low can Copper go?

Last week December 2012 Copper opened at 3.6375 and closed at 3.5500. While new home sales did show an increase in September 2012 building will slow down as winter weather approaches here in the US lowering demand for copper. Also if we see continued global economic weakness in Europe and Asia that will also have an effect on demand.

On the daily chart below you can see that ADX reflects increasing strength to trend as the numbers rise now at 31.6. MACD is bearish and Stochastics are in deep oversold territory. You can see the two "red vertical lines" highlighting technical trade signals from one of the tools at Trends in Futures called the TS Analyzer. When the first one showed up I mentioned to wait for a solid break below 2.7000 in my video commentary. The break took place on the second red line on Oct 19.

On the weekly chart you can see weekly ADX reflects increasing strength to the weekly trend with numbers rising now at 33. Weekly Stochastics are mid-range and coming down. On the COT Disaggregated report Producers had a slight drop to net shorts now -51,488 contracts. Managed Money had a slight drop to net longs now at 18,067 and Swap Dealers had a slight increase to net longs now at 45,586 contracts. With today's price action and a continued posture for weaker prices by big money we could see a test of 3.4500.


Was Arch Crawford Right About Delayed Election / Martial Law?

from FinancialSurvivalNet
Arch Crawford of Crawford Perspectives was on the show in August and September of this year. He stated for the record that he believed that the election would be delayed or cancelled and that martial law would be imposed. To our knowledge, these were the only public interviews he gave out with such specific predictions. He felt that September 30th would be the day that all hell broke loose. Here we are, a month to the day and the Northeast is suffering a Perfect Storm, only this time we’re not worrying about George Clooney getting lost in a fishing boat, we’re talking about 10′s of millions of people suffering widespread power outages and lack of food and basic services.
Could this turn into a nature-driven ‘Reichstag’ event? We all know that this administration is the most lawless on record. Basic constitutional limitations that kept presidents in check for over 200 years seemingly have no affect or power over this Chicago thug based power-crazed group of sociopaths. Don’t think for a second that the president is actually calling the shots. Rather it’s a control group of labor union collectivist types combined with a group of America haters that are driving the Country closer and closer to chaos.
Listen to these interviews and decide for yourself.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio

5 Gold Mining Stocks With Major Upside

NEW YORK (Stockpickr) -- Thanks to a strong upward move in recent months, gold prices are back up around $1,700 an ounce, not far from the $1,900 peak seen in the summer of 2011. For anyone who has owned gold since it traded for just $1,100 an ounce at the start of 2011, these have been happy times indeed.

The same can’t be said for companies that mine gold. These miners have traded down from their highs on concerns that rising costs will crimp profits. Yet concerns about mining profits increasingly appear overblown.

Though production costs had been rising in recent quarters, they now appear to be leveling off. And at current levels, their expenses still ensure ample profits, assuming gold prices hang in there around $1,700.

Here are five gold mining stocks that look like solid bargains, with considerable upside even if gold prices themselves fail to rally further.

Barrick Gold

Any gold mining portfolio needs exposure to Barrick Gold (ABX), which is the world’s largest gold producer, with 26 mines spread across the globe. Despite its massive heft, investors soured on the company’s lack of discipline when it came time to measure investments in each mine for its potential return.  (more)

7 Strategies the Rich Use that You Don’t (But Should)

Monopoly Boardwalk HotelAfter reading all the hoopla about Mitt Romney’s tax returns (I think it would be fascinating to read his returns just to see what sorts of loopholes and tricks his accounting/tax team uses… I don’t begrudge him for doing exactly what I’d do – minimize tax payments by following the rules as written), I start doing a little research into the sorts of strategies the rich use to avoid as much income tax as possible. When the wealth have marginal tax rates north of 30%, it’s amazing how much low tax rate income they must have to bring that number down into the low teens.
Here are a handful of strategies that they use that, while not always 100% accessible to the average person, are at least within the realm of possibility: (i.e. you won’t see carried interest mentioned once!)

Build a strong network

I wanted to start the list off with something that anyone can do but that the wealthy, especially those who derived their wealth in business, do very well – networking. One thing you’ll recognize very quickly is that the most successful individuals often know the most number of people. While it may appear that it has to do with the wealth they’ve generated, that’s often the result of the network itself. Think about some of the more successful people in your workplace, the people who can “get things done” and a lot of it has to do with the other people in the organization that they know. When I worked at large companies, some people were able to circumvent the arduous process cycles to get their work at the head of the line or completed with extra attention to minimize errors. It’s entirely based on networking (read: friendships).
And networking is a delicate process. We all know about the guy who introduces himself and within minutes has his business card in your hand. Or the friend who just joined a multi-level marketing “business” and wants you to buy [insert products here]. Networking is about being a nice person, finding out what other people do, and then, at some later time, figuring out if you can work together. You have to build a network before you need it because rushing the process will turn people off. (what this really means is just be nice to people and don’t think about networking as building a network, think of it more like making a lot of friends that you hope, one day, you can help somehow in a tangible way)  (more)

Nigeria: A Primer on the Hazards of Country Risk

by Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist
Casey Research

Nigeria has 37 billion barrels of crude oil reserve and is Africa’s largest oil producer. The country also boasts 187 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, the ninth-largest reserve in the world.
Nigeria has all the right geology for oil and gas. But geology isn’t everything.
The best geology in the world can still be a terrible place to put your money if other risks threaten to steal all of a project’s profits and potential – and country risk can pose precisely that threat.
Think about it this way. In considering any business venture, you need to know several key parameters, such as how much it will cost to establish the operation, how much you will produce, and what percentage of your profits the government will take. In Nigeria, you cannot calculate any of these metrics with confidence because the rules are so complex and corrupt.
Continue Reading at…

Mexico Joins the US and Others in Implementing Capital Controls

by Jim Karger, Dollar Vigilante:
By 2014, the US Department of Homeland Security will be able to scan you at the molecular level from 164 feet, and you won’t even know it. Starting 2013, the US Department of the Treasury will be able to scan every bank and brokerage account you have in the world, save a few possibilities. In both cases, if the government doesn’t like what it sees, they can make short work of you and your money.
Unfortunately, while the US has become the world’s most invasive police state, combining intent with technology, it is not the only state policing its citizens’ financial transactions. Indeed, many other nations are following in its footsteps, limiting individual freedom as well as financial freedom. One of the most common examples of financial fascism today is currency controls, that is, limiting how much cash one can withdraw over a period of time, what can be purchased with cash, and requiring the reporting of purchases and sales above a certain amount with cash. In the US, for example, transactions above $10,000 must be reported by banks and certain vendors, and suspicious transactions (however defined) also reported. Spain recently banned cash transactions above 2,500 euros.
Read More @

WTI Crude Oil & Oil Stocks Seasonality & Year-End Outlook

Crude oil has had some large price swings this year and another one may be on its way. This report shows the seasonality of crude oil along with where oil is trading and what the oil service stocks are telling us is likely to happen going into year end.
Since WTI Crude Oil topped out in September at the $100 resistance level (Century Number) many traders are looking for a bounce or bottom to form in the next week. Historical charts show that on average the price of oil falls during November and the first half of December.
The charts of oil and oil stocks shown below have formed patterns on both time frames (weekly & daily) that lower prices are to be expected. If you did not read my Gold Seasonality Report I just posted be sure to review it here: Gold Seasonal Report
Crude Seasonality

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart:

Here you can see that price tends to fall going into Christmas and rallies during the last week of trading. This price action falls in line with Dimitri Specks seasonal chart providing us with insight as to what we should expect. Later this week I will finish my report on the Election Cycle Seasonality report which shows weakness in the market during Oct & Nov when a president is up for re-election.
Crude Oil Price

Oil Services Stocks – Weekly Chart:

If you follow oil closely then you know likely know already that oil related stocks can lead the price of oil by a couple weeks. What this means is that if big money is flowing into oil stocks (bullish price patterns with strong volume), then you should expect the price of crude oil to rise in the coming days. That said, if money is flowing OUT of oils stocks then lower or sideways oil price should be expected.
The weekly chart oil stocks show a very large bearish head & shoulders pattern. While I do not think the neckline will be broken it is very possible.
One of the most important pieces of data on the chart is the VOLUME. Notice the lack of it… Volume tells us how much interest and power is behind chart patterns and declining volume clearly tells us these investments are out of favor currently and that big money is not moving into them.
Oil Stocks Weekly

Oil Services Stocks – DAILY Chart:

Zooming into the daily chart of the oil service stocks we can see there is yet another bearish pattern unfolding. Another head & shoulders pattern which looks as though it is just starting to breakdown as of this writing. Next support level is $35-36.
Crude Oil Stocks Daily

WTI Crude Oil and Oil Service Stocks Trading Conclusion:

Looking forward 1-2 months (November – December) taking the seasonal price swings in oil, re-election cycle seasonality and price action of oil stocks I feel oil will trade sideways or down from here. With that being said, expect crude oil to rally during the last week of the year. I hope this provides some useful info for your trading!