Tuesday, March 11, 2014

10 Warnings Signs Of Stock Market Exuberance

stawealth.com / by Lance Roberts / March 10, 2014
Imagine that you are speeding down one of those long and lonesome stretches of highway that seems to fall off the edge of the horizon.  As the painted white lines become a blur, you notice a sign that says “Warning.”  You look ahead for what seems to be miles of endless highway, but see nothing.  You assume the sign must be old therefore you disregard it, slipping back into complacency.
A few miles down the road you see another sign that reads “Warning: Danger Ahead.”  Yet, you see nothing in distance.  Again, a few miles later you see another sign that reads “No, Really, There IS Danger Ahead.”  Still, it is clear for miles ahead as the road disappears over the next hill.

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Long Crude Oil Speculative Bets Rise To All Time High

Whether or not institutional investors, read large speculators, decided to invest alongside Putin in the one trade that is most critical to the future prosperity and positive cash flow balance of Russia, namely keeping the price of Crude high, and rising, is unknown, however, as the following chart the net position in crude oil futures as of the week of March 4, just hit an all time high of $44.0 billion up from $42.4 billion the week prior, surpassing all prior peaks, and certainly any set during the summer of 2008 when oil was threatening to make a run on $150, and was set to hit $200 if one believes Goldman (which nobody does).
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Groupon Inc (NASDAQ: GRPN)

Groupon, Inc. operates online local commerce marketplaces that connect merchants to consumers by offering goods and services at a discount worldwide. It also offers deals on products for which it acts as the merchant of record. The company offers deals in various categories, including food and drink, events and activities, beauty and spa, health and fitness, home and garden, and automotive; deals on various product lines comprising electronics, sporting goods, jewelry, toys, home, and apparel; features travel offers that include hotels, airfare, and package deals, which covers domestic and international travel; and tools, such as payments and credit card payment processing service, as well as point-of-sale solutions to merchants. It distributes its deals to customers through mobile applications and mobile browsers that enable consumers to browse, purchase, manage, and redeem deals on their mobile devices; Websites; emails that are targeted by location, purchase history, and personal preferences; and publishes its deals through various social networks.
To review potential trading opportunities with Groupon’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of GRPN (Groupon, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of GRPN (Groupon, Inc.)
TEX appears to have formed a double top price pattern (blue) from January though mid-June. Double tops are reversal patterns and are as simple as they sound: Rallying up to a point (T), selling off to a support, and then rallying back up again to approximately the same top (T). As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. GRPN confirmed its pattern by breaking the $9 support (blue) that was created by the double top pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: GRPN has broken down from its double top and should be moving lower overall. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up to $9, while a long trade could be made if the stock were to break back above the $9 level.
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Did Ukraine Just Airlift Its Entire Gold Hoard To The U.S. Fed?

kingworldnews.com / March 10, 2014
Today an outspoken hedge fund manager out of Hong Kong stunned King World News when he said that the entire Ukrainian gold hoard may have just secretly been flown from Ukraine to the United States.  William Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, also spoke about the incredible implications of this astonishing development.  Below is what Kaye had to say in this powerful interview.
Kaye:  “There are now reports coming from Ukraine that all of the Ukrainian gold has been airlifted, at 2 AM Ukrainian time, out of the main airport, Boryspil Airport, in Kiev, and is being flown to New York — the presumable destination being the New York Fed….
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Aeropostale Inc (NYSE: ARO)

AĆ©ropostale, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a mall-based specialty retailer of casual apparel and accessories. It provides a collection of apparel, including graphic t-shirts, tops, bottoms, sweaters, jeans, outerwear, and accessories for 14 to 17 year-old young women and men. The company also offers casual clothing and accessories focusing on kids between the ages of 4 and 12. As of December 4, 2013, it operated 902 Aeropostale stores in 50 states and Puerto Rico, 79 Aeropostale stores in Canada, and 151 P.S. from Aeropostale stores in 31 states and Puerto Rico. In addition, AĆ©ropostale, Inc. markets its products through its Websites, www.ps4u.com, and www.aeropostale.com, as well as its licensees operate 88 Aeropostale stores, and 1 Aeropostale and P.S. from Aeropostale combination store in the Middle East, Asia, Europe, and Latin America under various licensing agreements. It also sells fashion footwear, contemporary apparel, and other accessories through GoJane.com.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of ARO (Aeropostale, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ARO (Aeropostale, Inc.)
This stock is very simple. ARO had held a very important level of support at $8 (blue) for over 4 months. Regardless of what the market had or had not done over that period of time, the stock had never broken the $8 level – up until mid-January. After falling down to $6 the stock has now managed to rally back up and appears to be on course for a test of that previous $8 support.

The Tale of the Tape: ARO had a key level of support at $8 that should now act as resistance. A trader might want to enter a short trade at or near the $8 level with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $8 would negate the forecast for a move lower.
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