Chart of the Day: Stock Dividend Yields

"What about the S&P 500 dividend yield, and this comes courtesy of an old pal from Merrill Lynch who is currently an investment advisor. Over the course of 2010, numerous analysts were saying that people must own stocks because the dividend yields will be more than that of the 10-year Treasury. But alas, here we are today with the S&P 500 dividend yield at 2% and the 10-year T-note yield at 3.3%.

From a historical standpoint, the yield on the S&P 500 is very low ― too low, in fact. This smacks of a market top and underscores the point that the market is too optimistic in the sense that investors are willing to forgo yield because they assume that they will get the return via the capital gain. In essence, dividend yields are supposed to be higher than the risk free yield in a fairly valued market because the higher yield is “supposed to” compensate the investor for taking on extra risk. The last time S&P yields were around this level was in the summer of 2000, and we know what happened shortly after that. When the S&P yield gets to its long-term average of 4.35%, maybe even a little higher, then stocks will likely be a long-term buy. "

Jim Cramer Picks His Top DOW Stocks For 2011

(TheStreet) -- People do a lot of top down analysis at this time of the year, trying to figure out how much the Dow and the S&P could go up--or down--in the coming year. That's not my style. As someone who is a stock picker, I like a bottoms up approach, analyzing each Dow component to come up with what I think the most visible index will deliver in 2011.

Here's my annual analysis, case by case, that adds up to a target of 13,365 for the Dow Jones next year -- a 16% gain from current levels and a bountiful return -- based on a prognostication of the performance of the individual members of the venerable index.

Although I am a bottoms up guy, as a backdrop I am presuming a resumption of decent U.S. growth courtesy of the Fed -- call it 3% to 4% -- continued worldwide growth, a stable to slight decline in the dollar and a decent rise in rates (30-year Treasury bond going to 4.8%) as befitting a return to economic health.

Still, I don't want to overplay the macro hand. I am seeing these terrific gains on the Dow from the players within, not the trends outside. Here's how I get to my 13,365 target. (more)

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BYD: Buffett's Favorite Auto Stock

When I went to the Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) annual meeting in 2009, there was something I really wanted to do.

No, it wasn't a chat with Warren Buffett.

That's almost impossible at the yearly "Woodstock for Capitalists," and only first-timers make the trek to Omaha, Nebraska, to see Buffett anyway. Longtime shareholders make the trip to listen to Berkshire's vice chairman, Charlie Munger.

But even speaking with the inimitable Munger, who's probably the smartest guy in U.S. business, wasn't at the top of my list.

I really wanted to see a floor model of one of Berkshire's newest acquisitions -- the BYD (BYDDF.PK) car.

You see, all of Berkshire's companies display their wares in the exhibition hall at the Qwest Center in Omaha, from the GEICO gecko to Fruit of the Loom, and tucked off to one side was a BYD vehicle, complete with a leather interior, an atypical option for BYD cars, which are barebones and compete on price. (more)

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John Embry: "Gold, Silver Could Go Ballistic By Year End"

Sprott's John Embry is in fine form today: in a just released oped in the Investor's Digest of Canada, the Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP, and one of the biggest fans of shiny metals in history, makes the following bold prediction, which also explains how he views the concerted attempts by the LBMA to keep gold below the $1,420 all time high: "I am not in the least bit concerned about these shenanigans because I believe considerable additional quantitative easing is inevitable, irrespective of what the Fed says or does in the short term. Goldman Sachs's chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius clearly shares my view as he has suggested that ultimately as much as $4 trillion maybe required although he anticipates that it will be staged. In my opinion this will act as catnip for gold and silver prices, which could go ballistic by year-end." Presumably, he means 2011. So forget all you have heard about interest rate (real or otherwise) correlations: they don't exist. All that does exist is the willingness of the Fed to 'print.' And with China increasingly starting to tighten, the Fed will need to do double duty if it wishes to keep global liquidity well-offered with near-free fiat paper. While we don't quite share Embry's enthusiasm for gold's imminent escape velocity, we are confident that as long as loose monetary policy is the only means to extend and pretend the ponzi, gold will, in turn, be well-bid.

"Gold, Silver Could Go Ballistic By Year End" published in Investor's Digest of Canada

The gold price experienced a virtually uninterrupted rise of more than $200 in a 2 1/2 month period from the end of July through mid-October. This came on the heels of an orchestrated $100 price takedown following an all-time price high in mid-June as the authorities took great pains at that time to ensure that the gold price wasn't flying as the necessity for further quantitative easing (QE) became obvious.

Not surprisingly, we saw a replay of this mindset in late October as the gold price came under renewed attack in the aftermath of a large buildup in Comex open interest during the aforementioned price rise. With the U.S. elections and an important Federal Open Market Committee meeting (where another massive QE operation was expected to be announced) in the offing, the U.S. powers-that-be wanted to make sure that the gold price wasn't surging to new highs. (more)

CBC Doc Zone 2010.12.09 - Blowout: Is Canada Next?

On April 20, 2010, BP's Deepwater Horizon rig exploded unleashing 5 million barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. It has been nothing short of catastrophic, causing extensive damage to marine and wildlife habitat, as well as to the Gulf's fishing and tourism industries. In May 2010, Chevron began drilling Canada's deepest well off the coast of Newfoundland, begging the question: Could an oil spill of the same magnitude happen in Canada?

Blowout: Is Canada Next? , is a documentary that tracks the aftermath of the worst oil spill in U.S. history, and transposes the oil spill to Canada's Grand Banks. By documenting the latest scientific findings in the Gulf, Blowout: Is Canada Next? builds a picture of what an offshore drilling disaster would look like on Canada's East coast.

Just weeks after the Deepwater Horizon blowout in the Gulf, Chevron began drilling Canada's deepest oil exploration well off the coast of Newfoundland. Located 430 kms from shore, the Chevron well is twice as deep as BP's Deepwater Horizon well, six times further out to sea, and in much rougher seas. In the event of a blowout, it would take 11 days for emergency response ships to even reach the spill. An oil blowout off the coast of Newfoundland would decimate the world's last remaining Atlantic cod fishery, along with several species of whales, seals, turtles, coral habitats and seabirds that feed in the basin. These rich and fertile seas are the backbone to Newfoundland's tourism industry. An oil spill would create dead zones within the ocean and potentially devastate this economic mainstay that brings in over 1 billion tourist dollars annually.

Canada has entered the race to drill oil in deeper and deeper waters, but safety procedures and cleanup techniques have not kept pace with the petrochemical industry's pursuit of oil. Is it only a matter of time before an oil catastrophe happens in Canada?

John Embry: "Gold, Silver Could Go Ballistic By Year End"

Sprott's John Embry is in fine form today: in a just released oped in the Investor's Digest of Canada, the Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP, and one of the biggest fans of shiny metals in history, makes the following bold prediction, which also explains how he views the concerted attempts by the LBMA to keep gold below the $1,420 all time high: "I am not in the least bit concerned about these shenanigans because I believe considerable additional quantitative easing is inevitable, irrespective of what the Fed says or does in the short term. Goldman Sachs's chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius clearly shares my view as he has suggested that ultimately as much as $4 trillion maybe required although he anticipates that it will be staged. In my opinion this will act as catnip for gold and silver prices, which could go ballistic by year-end." Presumably, he means 2011. So forget all you have heard about interest rate (real or otherwise) correlations: they don't exist. All that does exist is the willingness of the Fed to 'print.' And with China increasingly starting to tighten, the Fed will need to do double duty if it wishes to keep global liquidity well-offered with near-free fiat paper. While we don't quite share Embry's enthusiasm for gold's imminent escape velocity, we are confident that as long as loose monetary policy is the only means to extend and pretend the ponzi, gold will, in turn, be well-bid.

"Gold, Silver Could Go Ballistic By Year End" published in Investor's Digest of Canada

The gold price experienced a virtually uninterrupted rise of more than $200 in a 2 1/2 month period from the end of July through mid-October. This came on the heels of an orchestrated $100 price takedown following an all-time price high in mid-June as the authorities took great pains at that time to ensure that the gold price wasn't flying as the necessity for further quantitative easing (QE) became obvious. (more)

Copper May be in 550,000 Ton Deficit in 2011 on Low Stocks, Macquarie Says

The global copper market is estimated to have a 550,000-metric ton deficit next year as falling stockpiles push prices to $5 a pound, Macquarie Bank Ltd. said in a research report today.

The forecast was based on an assumption of 4 percent mine supply disruption, or 720,000 tons, with global stocks falling to below three weeks of world consumption, according to the report. It also excluded material that may be held by exchange- traded products launched by BlackRock Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., it said.

The final 2011 copper deficit could be bigger as the bank believes the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the introduction of the ETF products, said Macquarie.

Euro Pain Turns to 23 Percent Gain for Europeans in S&P 500 Read more: Euro Pain Turns to 23 Percent Gain for Europeans in S&P 500

For all the losses facing Europeans this year, investors from the region who bought U.S. stocks as the euro weakened are getting the best returns in a decade.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 23 percent this year when translated to euros, the most since the currency was formed in 1999 and almost double the 13 percent gain for Americans, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Buying the Nikkei 225 Stock Average in Tokyo produced a 20 percent increase for Europeans, compared with a 2.5 percent loss when priced in yen, the data show.

Record budget deficits and bailouts of Greece and Ireland sent the European currency down 8.4 percent in 2010, boosting winnings for anyone converting dollar-denominated investments back into euros. Concern about further declines may spur more overseas investment in 2011, according to Dirk Pattyn at Degroof Fund Management Co. in Brussels, whose U.S. fund gave European investors a 24 percent return this year.

“The focus is still the debt problem in Europe, and many clients might be looking at the U.S. as a first alternative,” said Pattyn, who held Chevron Corp. and Microsoft Corp. among $33 billion in investments at his company this year. “It’s been an excellent year for U.S. investors in Europe. You have the currency that added a lot, and also you had the performance of the underlying index.” (more)

How the Mortgage Market Will Look in 2011

This was kind of a bizarre year for the mortgage market. In the first half of the year, you had a decent number of home sales keeping mortgages for purchases stable, thanks to the home buyer credit. In the second half of the year, that changed as demand crumbled when the credit was withdrawn. At the same time, you had very low mortgage interest rates throughout much of the year cause a mini-refinancing boom. 2011 will look very different, as the housing demand continues to struggle and mortgage interest rates have begun rising.

Michele Lerner has a pretty good list of seven mortgage trends we can expect to see in 2011, over at Investopedia. A few are relatively trivial if you assume her first trend, rising mortgage interest rates, will hold. That will predictably continue to lower the demand for mortgages and refinancing, while increasing the portion of purchase applications. Lerner's last three predictions are a little more interesting, however.

First, she says that jumbo mortgages, those which exceed the conforming limit (between $417,000 and $729,750, depending on location) will become cheaper. Lerner notes that these mortgage interest rates were higher than conforming rates in 2009 and early 2010, but began to fall in the latter part of this year. This mostly has to do with the funding available for mortgages. Since the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market died with the financial crisis, banks had to rely on government sources of financing. As investors become more comfortable again with private MBS, jumbo loans will become cheaper. For this to happen in 2011, the MBS market will have to improve accordingly. (more)

Crude Oil Declines From 26-Month High on Concerns China's Growth May Ease

Crude oil fell from a two-year high in New York as China’s second interest-rate increase since October bolstered concern that economic growth will slow in the biggest energy-consuming country.

Futures snapped five days of gains after the People’s Bank of China boosted benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points Dec. 25 to curb inflation. Oil advanced earlier as temperatures fell and storms blanketed the eastern U.S. with snow, raising demand for heating fuels.

“There’s a feeling that the Chinese interest-rate move will slow economic growth,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover Inc., a trading-advisory company in New Canaan, Connecticut. “This could diminish demand for energy or at least slow projected growth, which has powered the recent rally.”

Crude oil for February delivery fell 51 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at $91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures earlier climbed to $91.88 a barrel, the highest intraday level since Oct. 7, 2008. Prices are up 15 percent this year. (more)