Monday, March 23, 2015

Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A)

Royal Dutch Shell plc operates as an independent oil and gas company worldwide. It operates through Upstream and Downstream segments. The company explores for and extracts crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It also converts natural gas to liquids to provide fuels and other products; markets and trades natural gas; extracts bitumen from mined oil sands and converts it to synthetic crude oil; and generates electricity from wind energy. The company holds interests in approximately 24 refineries; 1,500 storage tanks; and 150 distribution facilities. It sells fuels under the Shell V-Power brand. Royal Dutch Shell plc is headquartered in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Royal (NYSE: RDS/A) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Royal (NYSE: RDS/A)
Like most energy related stocks, RDS/A fell on hard times during the summer and fall. Even recently the stock hit a new 52-week low. However, yesterday RDS/A actually broke back above the prior level of support at $60. That break should mean higher prices for the stock in the short-term, at minimum.

The Tale of the Tape: RDS/A had a key level of support at $60 that it has now broke back above. A trader could enter a long position at $60 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below $60 a short position could be entered instead.
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Protecting Yourself with Gold, Oil and Index ETF’s


Crude oil and energy stocks are tricky to navigate in a situation like this where the equities market is nearing a bull market top.
It is critical to remember that when the US stock market turns down and starts a bear market virtually all stocks and commodities will fall in value including oil and energy stocks. Investors need to understand that even though the price of crude oil is nearing a bottom it could and will likely stay low for a considerable amount of time “IF” the stock market turns down.
Over the last 100 years we have seen nearly thirty 30 bear markets. The average length of a bear market is 18 months and has an average decline of 30%.
I do feel currency problems and a war breakout will be bullish for both oil and gold. So if we get a bear market in equities, and a war oil and oil should rally while stocks in general fall.
But if we do not have those sever crisis’ then if gold and oil break below their critical support level which is the red line on the charts and a bear market in stocks start you do not want to be long stocks or commodities.


The chart below shows the line in the sand for the price of crude oil. If this level is broken with a monthly bar close below $43 per/barrel I think $30-$33 will be the next stop and the low for the oil market. It seems everyone is bullish on precious metals and have been buying like crazy.
The points I made about gold which I talked about in PART II should be reread because if the support levels are broken oil will fall 40%, and gold another 35% from their current prices.
Below are some ETFs that takes advantage of rising oil prices. While there are other funds that cover oil stocks I feel they may not perform well during the equities bear market. Investing in physical oil is the best play at this stage of the game but when the equities bear market looks to be nearing an end, energy stocks will be the best place to invest.


In short, I feel crude oil will has or will find a bottom within the next couple months. Long term the value is great, but we must be aware that if equities start a bear market it will be best close all equity positions and wait for the bear market to subside. When the time is right investing in crude oil and energy stocks which pay high dividends will generate life changing gains and an income stream. Patients is the key.
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Steelcase (NYSE: SCS): Breakout Predicts This Stock is Headed for a Double-Digit Rally

One of my favorite times to trade a stock is just as it's breaking out of a base. If there is a clear, definable stop-loss nearby, so much the better since my risk is limited.
And when the fundamentals support the bullish technicals, the probability that I have found a successful trade is high.
Enter Steelcase (NYSE: SCS), a Michigan-based manufacturer that was founded in 1912. Its first patent was granted in 1914 for a steel, fireproof wastebasket, revolutionary for its time.
At first glance, the company looks like a maker of conventional office furniture and related products. It makes ergonomic chairs, tables, bookcases and cabinets. It also provides LED desk lamps and presentation technology such as interactive whiteboards that fuse analog and digital content. Its products are delivered through a network of independent dealers with 650 locations around the world. (more)

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The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar Just As Storage Runs Out /  by Tyler Durden on 03/21/2015 17:58
Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.

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GSR Interviews MARTIN ARMSTRONG – March 19, 2015

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL CONSENSUS
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Feb.   -- 0.33 3-mo.
10 am Existing home sales Feb.   4.94 mln 4.82 mln
8:30 am Consumer price index Feb.   0.2% -0,7%
8:30 am Core CPI Feb.
0.1% 0.2%
9 am FHFA home price index Jan.   --  
9:45 am Markit PMI flash March   -- 55.1
10 am New home sales Feb.   453,000 481,000
WEDNESDAY, march 25
8:30 am Durable goods orders Feb.   0.6% 2.8%
THURSDAY, march 26
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims March 21
293,000 291,000
FRIDAY, march 27
8:30 am GDP 4Q   2.4% 2.2%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment March   92.4 91.2
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