Monday, November 25, 2013

Forget Smith & Wesson, Buy This Instead: Sturm, Ruger & Company (NYSE: RGR)

As a longtime tech analyst and investor, I’ve learned that tracking unstoppable trends is a great way to make money.
For instance, the mobile wave is moving so fast it’s turning small-cap companies into financial juggernauts, seemingly overnight.
The same thing is happening with cloud computing. Simply put, there’s a stampede of firms that want to host their data and applications on the web — and are willing to pay top dollar for those services.
But, strictly speaking, not every big-gain opportunity is a true high-tech trend.  (more)

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Profit From The Shale Boom With 2 REITs Yielding Up To 7.6%: IRET, UMH

One of the boldest energy predictions of the past 10 years is about to become reality.

According to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. will eclipse Russia and Saudi Arabia and become the world's top oil producer by 2015. And looking forward, that trend is going to accelerate, with the agency saying that booming production has the U.S. on track for energy independence in 20 years.

But while that bullish trend will give energy companies a big boost, it's also going to have a huge effect on local and regional economies. High-production states such as North Dakota, South Dakota and Nebraska already enjoy the lowest levels of unemployment in the country. And as energy companies continue to add tens of thousands of new employees, those strong local and regional economies will fuel record demand for temporary housing, permanent housing and commercial real estate.

That's why I'm bullish on a little-known group of real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are exclusively focused on strong regional economies in position to profit from the North American shale boom. (more)

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Can You Name North America's Greatest Dividend-Payer?: RPM International (RPM)

Income investors take note: A company you've likely never heard of just joined the dividend-paying elite.
RPM International (RPM) is a $5 billion specialty chemical manufacturer. It just raised its annual dividend for the 40th year in a row. Only about 50 publicly traded companies in the U.S. can say the same. And most of those are slow-growing blue chips.
But RPM is different... It's growing faster. And it pays a higher yield.
If you're looking for safe, high-yielding stocks, RPM and its peers offer some of the best opportunities...
You can see what I mean in the chart below...
I mentioned RPM back in April. I said, "If you are looking for safe, high-yielding stocks, you should turn to small-caps like RPM."
Since my call, shares are up 35%.
With interest rates so low, there's huge demand for safe, steady dividend-paying stocks – stocks that can compound your wealth over the long term...(more)
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3 Market Bubbles That Could Be Ready to Burst

Predicting the next stock market bubble is a completely inexact science. No one knows when a bubble will pop -- but what we do know is there's practically a 100% chance that some sort of crash will occur at some point, because history points us to this fact, just as there's a nearly 100% chance that stocks will come roaring back following that crash.

Today, rather than pinpoint a specific time of when a bubble might occur, I'm going to pull out my proverbial crystal ball and project what I believe could be the next three bubbles to burst. Again, these are pure speculation on my part and not a doomsday call, so keep that in mind.

As someone who has argued against using real estate as a primary investment opportunity, I see no potentially greater threat out there than China's real estate bubble.

Since 1998, China's real estate values have risen by more than 200%, with only a single year registering a decline (2008). October alone demonstrated year-over-year home price appreciation of 10.5%! The allure of housing in the rapidly growing emerging-market country is that it has provided, at least over the past five years, a considerably better return than the stock market, which has returned only a 6% gain over the same period.  (more)

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Silver, Gold & Miners ETF Trading Strategy – Part II

Precious Metals ETF Trading: It’s been a week since my last gold & silver report which I took a lot of heat because of my bearish outlook. Friday’s closing price has this sector trading precariously close to a major sell off if it’s not already started.
On a percentage bases I feel precious metals mining stocks as whole will be selling at a sharp discount in another week or three. ETF funds like the GDX, GDXJ and SIL have the most downside potential. The amount of emails I received from followers of those who have been buying more precious metals and gold stocks as price continues to fall was mind blowing.
If precious metals continue to fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week selling volume should spike as protective stops will be getting run and the individuals who are underwater with a large percentage of their portfolio in the precious metals sector could start getting margin calls and cause another washout, spike low similar to what we saw in 2008.

ETF Trading Charts:

Below are updated with Friday’s closing prices showing technical breakdowns across the board..
ETF Trading Strategies ETF Trades ETF Trade

Sweet & Sour ETF Trading Analysis:

Just to make things a little more interesting I would like to point out a couple other types of analysis.
cefSweet:  Through analysis of the CEF Central Fund of Canada Ltd. chart and evaluation it is clear precious metals are falling out of favor at an increased rate. This fund owns physical gold and silver bullion and investors are fleeing the fund so fast that it is now trading at a 7% discount of its asset value. While this may not seem good for metals I see it as a positive.
When everyone is running for one door after an extended moves has already taken place it tends to act as a contrarian indicator. Knowing that some of the largest percent moves in a trend takes place before reversing, I see this information as an early warning that a bottom will soon be put in place.

Sour: While the USD index has not been much help compared to 2012, I feel as though a rising dollar is likely to unfold for a couple weeks which may lend a hand to pulling the precious metals sector down.
ETF Trading Chart

Precious Metals ETF Trading Conclusion:

While I am starting to get bullish for a long term investment in precious metals I know that a bottom has likely not yet been made. But even if it has been, it is better to buy during a basing pattern or breakout to the upside from a basing pattern than to be underwater with a position for an extended period of time along with all the other negatives that come along with it.
I do like the idea of CEF as a long term investment when I feel the time is right. I have invested and traded it many times in the past. The key to trading the fund is to be sure you are buying it at fair value or a discount from the net asset value. You do not want to be buying it when it is trading at a 5-7% premium. The fund owns both gold and silver making it a simple diversified precious metals play.
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
10 am Pending home sales Oct.   -- -5.6%
8:30 am Housing starts Oct. DELAYED 919,000 891,000
8:30 am Building permits Oct.   935,000 926,000
9 am Case-Shiller home price index Sept.   -- 12.8% yoy
9 am FHFA home price index Sept.   -- 8.5% yoy
10 am Consumer confidence Nov.   72.4 71.2
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 11/23
330,000 323,000
8:30 am Durable goods orders Oct.   -2.2% 3.8%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Nov.   61.0 65.9
10 am UMich consumer sentiment index Nov.   73.0 72.0
10 am Leading economic indicators Oct.   -- 0.7%
  Thanksgiving Day
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