Monday, November 8, 2010

World Markets Update: Blastoff To New Highs!

Here's a weekend snapshot of major world indexes. The table at right shows the performance over the past week.

All six of the major world indexes closed the week with extravagant gains, with four of the six setting new interim highs. The Far East fared best with the Hang Seng up 7.71% and the Shanghai up 5.06%. Even the chronically underperforming Nikkei gained 4.60%. The US and Europe finished in the second tier, with the DAX at the bottom despite its 2.32% advance.

Thank you, Ben Bernanke! Asset inflation is off to a brilliant start! (more)

Technically Precious with Merv

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The 7 biggest mistakes fund investors make

(MarketWatch) — There’s a difference between trying to do the right thing and actually getting it done.The biggest mistakes mutual-fund investors make fall right in the middle, where an investor trips over the fine line that separates good investing habits from bad.

In talking to financial experts and fund specialists, as well as reviewing industry statistics about ownership and asset flows, it’s clear that the investing public keeps trying to do the right thing, it just doesn’t always get the best results.

Here are the seven biggest mistakes fund investors make. If they describe the way you have been investing, it might be time to check your portfolio — and your mindset:

1. Chasing returns: Buying what’s been hot makes intuitive sense — you’re riding the express train — but all too often results in disappointment. Ideally, the idea is as simple as “buy low, sell high,” but investors who chase performance typically are late to whatever market sector or investment style is hot. As a result, they buy at high prices, and when the market turns and starts to favor something else, these investors then sell low.

2. Rearview-mirror investing: It’s hard to go forward when you are only looking backwards. This problem is related to performance-chasing. You can’t just buy funds that did reasonably well in the past; you need to invest in parts of the market that are likely to do well going forward. Too many investors know what a fund has done recently but have little idea of the fund’s prospects. (more)

Bankruptcy of U.S. is ‘Mathematical Certainty'

John Allison, who for two decades served as chairman and CEO of BB&T, the nation's 10th largest bank, told it is a “mathematical certainty” that the United States government will go bankrupt unless it dramatically changes its fiscal direction.

Allison likened what he sees as the predictable future bankruptcy of the United States to the problems at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose insolvency he also said was foreseeable to those who studied their business practices and financial situation.

“I think the first thing we have to realize is where we’re going and to face it objectively,” Allison told, when asked about the trillion-dollar-plus deficits the federal government has run for three straight years, the more than $13 trillion in federal debt, and the $61.9 trillion long-term shortfall the government faces (according to the analysis of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation) if the government is to pay all the benefits it has promised through entitlement programs. (more)

Bullish Trading Pattern in Oats?

In technical analysis, when the front month starts increasing in price by more than the distant months it is generally bullish.
In the beginning of September we saw December Oats go from -11 to almost even vs March 2011 Oats. The December Oats traded from 280 to 360 giving a profit of $4000 per contract for the longs.
Is the December / March Oats spread giving us a buy signal again?

The age of the dollar is drawing to a close

Right from the start of the financial crisis, it was apparent that one of its biggest long-term casualties would be the mighty dollar, and with it, very possibly, American economic hegemony. The process would take time – possibly a decade or more – but the starting gun had been fired.

At next week's meeting in Seoul of the G20's leaders, there will be no last rites – this hopelessly unwieldy exercise in global government wouldn't recognise a corpse if stood before it in a coffin – but it seems clear that this tragedy is already approaching its denouement.

To understand why, you have to go back to the origins of the credit crunch, which lay in the giant trade and capital imbalances that have long ruled the world economy. Over the past 20 years, the globe has become divided in highly dangerous ways into surplus and deficit nations: those that produced a surplus of goods and savings, and those that borrowed the savings to buy the goods. (more)

Conspiracy Theory Jesse Ventura S02E03 Wall Street 1/3

click here for part 2

click here for part 3

US Economic Calendar for the Week

DateTime (ET)StatisticForActualBriefing ForecastMarket ExpectsPriorRevised From
Nov 910:00 AMWholesale InventoriesSep-1.5%0.6%0.8%-
Nov 107:00 AMMBA Mortgage Applications11/05-NANA-5%-
Nov 108:30 AMInitial Claims11/06-450K450K457-
Nov 108:30 AMTrade BalanceSep-NA-$46.2B-46.3B-
Nov 108:30 AMContinuing Claims10/30-4350K4350K4340K-
Nov 108:30 AMExport Prices ex-ag.Oct-NANA0.3%-
Nov 108:30 AMImport Prices ex-oilOct-NANA0.3%-
Nov 108:30 AMTrade BalanceSep--$43.0B-$45.0B-46.3B-
Nov 108:30 AMExport Prices ex-ag.Oct-NANA0.3%-
Nov 108:30 AMImport Prices ex-oilOct-NANA0.3%-
Nov 1010:30 AMCrude Inventories11/06-NANA1.95M-
Nov 102:00 PMTreasury BudgetOct--$140.0B-$140.0B-$176.4B-
Nov 118:30 AMInitial Claims11/06-NANANA-
Nov 118:30 AMContinuing Claims10/30-NANANA-
Nov 129:55 AMMich SentimentNov-68.569.067.7-