Friday, December 13, 2019

Friday, December 6, 2019

GBR.VN Great Bear Resources Ltd


Powerful 7 Year Cycles And Gold Just Started One


Our research and predictive modeling systems have nailed Gold over the past 15+ months.  We expected Gold to rally above $1750 before the end of this year, but the global trade wars and news cycles stalled the rally in Gold over the past 2 months.  Now, it appears Gold is poised for another rally pushing much higher.

But wait, if you’re thinking I’m just another one of those traders who is always bullish on gold, just know I have been telling the truth about where gold was headed (lower) for years, but finally, the tide has changed!  (read more here)

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

About To Relive The 2007 Real Estate Housing Crash Again?


Does history repeat itself?  Are price patterns and chart patterns reliable enough to suggest that a global Real Estate market collapse may be set up?  What would it take for another Real Estate collapse to take place in today’s global market?

First, let’s start with this simple chart highlighting the “Bear Flag” setup from 2007 and the current 2019 Bear Flag setup.  This price pattern was enough of an early warning sign for our research team to run into our offices and tell us of the exciting pattern they just identified regarding Real Estate and what they thought could happen.  We listened to them share their ideas and concepts of how we have 11 months to go before the 2020 US Presidential election takes place and how higher risk delinquencies and foreclosures are starting to spike.  They suggested the political theater of the global markets and US election cycle will likely distract from the weakening economic cycle which could present enough “smoke and mirrors” to keep investors’ attention away from this potential collapse in the housing market. (read more here)

AKS AK Steel Holding Corp


Junior Gold Sector to Take Off into 2020


Monday, December 2, 2019

Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next?

As the Thanksgiving holiday passes, traders should begin to understand that liquidity and volume in the US and global markets typically begin to diminish over the next 30 to 45+ days.  Typically, between mid-November and early January, trading volumes weaken dramatically as institutional and retail investors move away from the markets in preparation for year-end celebrations and tax planning.

Historically, the month of November is vastly more positive than negative in terms of overall price action.  Over the past 21 years in the NQ, a total of 15 months have resulted in an average of +122.75 pts whereas only 6 months have resulted in an average of -194.83 pts.  This suggests the downside price moves, when they happen, are nearly 40% larger than the average upside price move for November.  So far for 2019, the NQ is +320.25 pts for November 2019.  (read more here)

GDXJ Junior Gold Miners ETF Vaneck


CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings Inc


FSM Fortuna Silver Mines


Thursday, November 21, 2019

KEL.TO Kelt Exploration Ltd


AYX Alteryx Inc


BDSI Biodelivery Sci Intl


QE vs Managing Benchmark Rates

QUESTION: The Fed buying $60 billion in T-Bills each month is obviously not long-term QE. They are expanding their balance sheet, but this is clearly not the QE as before. As a professional institution we can see the difference. Would you elaborate on the difference? FH




ANSWER: The Fed is buying $60 billion of Treasury bills per month for an entirely different purpose. They are trying to prevent short-term rates from rising. The 2007-2009 QE was an attempt to “stimulate” the economy by encouraging banks to lend, which it failed to accomplish. Here the Fed is trying to prevent repo rates from rising to 10% again because the banks do not trust banks.

We are witnessing the Fed trying to maintain control over the benchmark short-term interest rate it uses to guide monetary policy. They are NOT “stimulating” the economy, bailing out banks, buying US debt because others will not, or anything of the like. Buying T-Bills is short-term not long-term. They are trying to artificially prevent short-term rates from rising which our model shows in underway.

The crisis has NOTHING to do with the economy domestically and it is not Quantitative Easing trying to stimulate the economy by buying in long-term debt. They are trying to keep short-term rates from rising which is being instigated by an entirely different type of financial crisis that has NEVER before been witnessed.

I cannot go into elaborate detail on this blog. I do not want to be accused of starting a financial panic for the way things always work is they need someone to blame. I get calls from those involved so anything I would report would not be opinion or speculation. Hence, I must respect what is unfolding and it has to be in a report or at a conference, not on this blog where we do not restrict who comes in or out.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/qe-v-managing-benchmark-rates/

Monday, November 18, 2019

VIX Volatility Warns Of Imminent Stock Market Correction


The VIX is warning that a market peak may be setting up in the global markets and that investors should be cautious of the extremely low price in the VIX.  These extremely low prices in the VIX are typically followed by some type of increased volatility in the markets.

The US Federal Reserve continues to push an easy money policy and has recently begun acquiring more dept allowing a deeper move towards a Quantitative Easing stance.  This move, along with investor confidence in the US markets, has prompted early warning signs that the market has reached near extreme levels/peaks. (read more here)