Thursday, March 20, 2014

David Gurwitz at Nenner Research – We Are All Slaves Of The Cycles

from Financial Survival Network
David Gurwitz says that when it comes to investing in stocks, gold, silver or anything else, the most important thing is to catch the cycle right. Right now he’s concerned about the hundred year war cycle. The second decade of every new century has always seen a major world war, going back hundreds of years. He expects this one to be no different. Perhaps he’s right, in which case you need to be prepared.
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The Canadian Dollar Sell-off Should Continue

One of my favorite charts in the world is still the $USDCAD weekly. After a monster breakout to start the year, prices have been consolidating very nicely throughout the past couple of months.
Here are the weekly candlesticks for US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar. Look at the multi-year base that it’s been putting in since 2009. Big round bottoms like this create some of the most powerful trends:
3-18-14 USDCAD
Notice the 40-week moving average flatten out a few years ago and then turning higher early last year.  (more)

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Russian Sanctions May Create Serious Supply Shortages For Platinum and Palladium

Any sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. on the export of Russian palladium group metals would create a serious supply shortage that may be difficult for industries to replace. This year will show the third consecutive deficit year in global palladium supply, according to a Bloomberg Industries  survey of analysts.
Russia provided 44% of global palladium supply and 13.6% of platinum last year, according to Johnson Matthey.

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The Cooper Companies, Inc. (NYSE: COO)

The Cooper Companies, Inc. operates as a medical device company worldwide. The company develops, manufactures, and markets a range of contact lenses, including spherical lenses and toric and multifocal lenses that correct near and farsightedness, as well as address various complex visual defects, such as astigmatism and presbyopia. It also offers medical devices, diagnostic products, and surgical instruments and accessories for healthcare professionals and institutions to support healthcare delivery to women in hospitals, clinician offices, and fertility clinics. The company markets its products through field sales representatives, independent agents, and distributors
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of COO (The Cooper Companies, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of COO (The Cooper Companies, Inc.)
Over the last 6 months COO has created a clear level of resistance at $135 (blue). During that same period of time the stock has also created a trendline of support (red) that has been heading lower since August. If the stock’s pattern holds true, COO should be preparing to drop to new lows of the pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: COO has a key area of resistance at $135. A long trade could be made on a break above $135 with a stop placed below that level of entry. However, short traders might want to look to get into the stock soon in expectation of an eventual fall back down to the trendline support.
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The 'Dow Jones of China' is About to Reach a Bargain Level: iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)

Trading stocks is often an exercise in pattern recognition. Certainly, this is how the chartists earn their keep, as charts will often tell you much of what you need to know about the potential future of a stock or ETF.
I say "potential" because no prior pattern in a chart guarantees a future outcome. And while nothing in the investing game is guaranteed, smart traders can put the power of probability, logic and past patterns on their side.
The pattern that's jumping out at me right now is in the iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI).
This ETF tracks the FTSE China 25 Index, which is comprised of 25 large-cap Chinese equities that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Think of FXI as the Dow Jones Industrial Average of China. Its top holdings include Tencent Holdings, China Construction Bank and China Mobile.
As you can see in the chart below, over the past two years, shares have been on a roller-coaster ride.
China ETF FXI Chart
While the price action may seem a bit schizophrenic at first, a pattern emerges upon a closer look.  (more)
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