Tuesday, November 29, 2011

SocGen Sees $600 Billion QE3 Starting In March 2012 Sending Gold Up Between $1900 And $8500/Oz

SocGen has released its much anticipated Multi Asset Portfolio Scenario/Strategy guide titled simply enough "Patience: bad news will become good news" where, as the insightful can guess, the French bank makes the simple case that the worse things get, the stronger the response by global central banks will be. Here is the key quote for those worried that : "A major liquidity crisis should not occur this time, as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ." We don't disagree and if there is anything that can send BAC higher it will be the announcement of QE3. Of course, BAC will first drop to a $2-3 handle so question is who has the balance sheet to hold on to the falling knife. The next question is "How big will QE3 be"? Well, according to SocGen, the Fed will preannounce it in the January 2012 FOMC statement, the monetization will last from March 2012 until the end of the year, and will buy a total of $600 billion. We believe the actual LSAP total (not to be confused with the "sterilized" QE3 known as Operation Twist) will be well greater, probably in the $1.5 trillion range as the Fed will finally say "enough" to piecemeal solutions. As to what to do, besides going long some financial stock and hoping it is not the one that is allowed to fail, SocGen has some simple advice: "Buy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices" - in other words just as we suggested yesterday courtesy of the Don Coxe correlation chart. Why gold and not BAC? Because, "Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD. Gold = $ 8500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s). Gold = $1900/Oz: to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)." So go long a bank that may well go bankrupt and return nothing before it at best doubles, or go long a real asset, which will always have value and may quadruple in short notice? The answer seems simple to us...

From SocGen:

A combination of weak Q1 2012 GDP and softening inflation could push the Fed to another round of monetary expansion.

SG economists look for a two-step easing process:

1) In January 2012, a major announcement with the Fed promising to keep rates at zero until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3% on aa sustained basis.

2) In March 2012, the announcement of another round of QE. We expect the next round of QE to be concentrated on MBS purchases and be worth about $600bn over six to eight months. This would increase the Fed’s securities portfolio from currently $2.65trn to $3.25trn by the end of 2012.sustained basis.

The specifics of what to expect from the Fed:

And why gold:

And the full presentation:

Socgen Patience - Bad News Will Become Good News

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Is the Sovereign Debt Crisis a Replay of the Versailles Treaty?

Here at The Daily Bell we track dominant social themes of the Anglosphere power elite (the only elite that matters) and recently we’ve been pointing out that much of what is going on in the (Western) world is a repeat of the early 20th century.

In an article entitled “Parallels Between Early 20th Century and Present Are Scary,” we pointed out that history is indeed seemingly repeating itself. You can see the link here, and some previously created charts below.

We’ve pointed out these parallels in order to make the argument that much of what’s going on now is intended to speed up the process of creating one-world government. We regularly try to explain that there is likely a power elite behind this state of affairs – a small group wielding enormous Money Power via its control of central banking.

It is this “cabal” that seeks formal world government and – then – control of it behind the scenes. In order to implement world government, this impossibly rich cabal or mafia uses dominant social themes (fear-based promotions) to frighten middles classes into giving up power and authority to specially prepared globalist institutions.

But it is not enough to use themes. These themes have to be reinforced by ACTIONS. That is, if one wants to scare people about, say, an oil crisis, one has to implement measures to raise prices by creating an oil shortage. This has been done (even in the recent past) by restricting oil exploration, creating wars in sensitive oil-producing areas, etc.

Here at DB we call the strategies of the power elite in aggregate “directed history” – the idea that the powers-that-be are orchestrating a maximum amount of CONTROLLABLE chaos. Once the chaos has been created, authoritarian solutions can be applied. These solutions are presented as dominant social themes.

The elites use dominant social themes that are not scarcity-based as well. A different kind of theme is one that leads to political unrest and authoritarian solutions that can then be used to advance either one-world government or wars.

Today, we have what is called a “sovereign debt crisis” wracking Europe. Many believe this crisis is merely a coincidental outgrowth of what came before, in the booming, early 2000s.

We’ve gone back and forth on this issue, but increasingly we come down on the side of directed history. Increasingly, we think the elites are planning and creating economic chaos in order to do what they’ve done before – implement authoritarian solutions as result. Out of chaos … order.

Are there historical parallels? Maybe so. The question I want to address today is whether the current “sovereign debt crisis” is actually a replay of the infamous Versailles Treaty. The Treaty was “forced” on the Germans, and conventional history tells us that this was a “mistake.”

Was the Treaty of Versailles such an innocent mistake? There are three major issues to consider here: First, German leaders were made to agree to a “War Guilt Clause” in which they admitted Germany had stared the war.

Second, Germany, having started the war, would pay reparations – a figure that ended up at an impossible (for the times) £6,600 million. Third, a League of Nations was to keep world peace. (This failed, leading to World War II and the establishment of the United Nations.)

Let’s look at the parallels between the Treaty and the “sovereign debt crisis” in Europe. Do they exist? Are they identifiable? I think an argument can be made that there are. Here’s a broad chart that seems to show parallels.

Versailles Treaty Sovereign Debt Crisis
• German Leaders Admit Guilt • PIGS Leaders Admit Profligacy
• Impossible Reparations • Impossible Austerity
• League of Nations IMF/ECB/SDR Expansions
• Rise of Fascist Leaders • Rise of Technocrats

The overall aim of this historical manipulation in my view is to reinforce the progress the elites are making toward a one-world order. Just as in the 20th century, economics are being manipulated to create misery, despair and ultimately further concentrations of elite power. You can see a related article on this issue here: The Technocrat Meme Descends.

The back story to all of this is the incredible aggressiveness with which elite commercial banks lent to Europe’s Southern PIGS. This is perhaps the “smoking gun.” If one accepts this was a deliberate effort to create first a boom and then a terrible, international bust to bring the PIGS further under control of Brussels, then the rest of the manipulation becomes clearer. It is a kind of economic terrorism aimed at creating a European super state.

Are the top elites capable of such malevolent manipulations? This strategy does not seem without precedent. One could argue that the Versailles Treaty (which determinedly doomed millions to poverty and even starvation) was a deliberate attempt to ensure that certain sociopolitical events took place in Germany, and that Germany, in fact, would turn in an authoritarian direction that would eventually, perhaps, lead to another war.

The end game, it seems to me, is formal world government. It seems on its way to happening, though the Internet Reformation is, as we often mention, proving an obstacle to its progress, in our view. In fact, the elites have taken a great risk in implementing their economic destabilization – if that’s what they’ve done. They risk undermining the very Union they wish to consolidate. That’s an article we’ve already written and will return to on another day.

Anyway, within the context of these larger suppositions, the above chart may prove useful. It shows, I think, how the power elite really tends to work. Those involved repeat the same historical patterns in order to achieve the intended result (consolidation of power).

Of course, those who wish to rebut such arguments will simply claim that the parallels are coincidences. When it is pointed out that modern history is replete with such coincidences, the response will be that what looks suspicious is merely a “mistake.”

But there are so many mistakes! Strangely enough, the Yalta Treaty that gave away half of Europe to the Soviet Union was a mistake. The Gulf of Tonkin incident that led to the Vietnam War was also a mistake.

From an economics standpoint, the over-inflating of the New York Fed that led to the Crash of ’29 and the subsequent Depression was a mistake. The great mortgage bubble of the 2000s was a mistake. The sovereign debt crisis itself was also a mistake.

EVERY time a mistake is made, the solution seems to involve increased centralization of power at the top, increased global governance, increased authoritarianism.

Here are two other charts we’ve presented recently. Coincidence or deliberate historical manipulation? You decide.

Progressive Movement Occupy Wall Street
• Trust Busting • Breaking Up Big Banks & Big Corporations
• Wall Street regulation • Re-regulating Wall Street
• Voting through referendum • Direct Democracy
• Graduated Income Tax • Making the Rich Pay their “Fair Share”

Early 20th Century Early 21st Century
• Central Bank Inflation (Roaring ’20s) • Central Bank Inflation (Housing Bubble)
• Depression & Progressive Movement • Depression & Youth Movements Worldwide
• Occupy Washington DC (WW I Veterans) • Occupy Wall Street (Disaffected Youth)
• Reichstag Fire • 9/11
• Second World War War on Terror Escalating to Bigger War
• FDR-Like Figure to Provide Leadership Obama, who Models Himself on FDR

James Turk - Bullish Flag Pattern to Quickly Send Silver to $70

With gold, silver and stocks all moving strongly to the upside, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain to get his take on what is happening. When asked about the action in gold and silver, Turk responded,
“What a great way to start the week, Eric. This move is going to catch a lot of people by surprise as evidenced by the extremely low sentiment readings. Those low readings are a clear indication that there is a lot of money on the sidelines that is waiting to jump on board.”(more)

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John Williams: Hyperinflation Warning, Preserve Value with Gold

The Gold Report: When we talked in May, you predicted that hyperinflation could be a reality as soon as 2014, something you addressed at length in your Hyperinflation Special Report. Have six months of euro debt crises, Middle East revolts and U.S. Treasuries' downgrading altered your outlook?

John Williams: Not a bit. We still seem to be moving down that road to a relatively near-term break toward hyperinflation. The most important thing that's happened since we last talked was the global response to the U.S. legislators' negotiations over the debt-limit ceiling and the deficit reduction problems at that time. Clearly, no one controlling the White House or Congress was serious about addressing the nation's long-term solvency issues. That sparked a panic selloff on the dollar against currencies such as the Swiss franc, and of course gold, which made the gold price rally sharply.

TGR: Did the politicos learn anything from those "negotiations," as you just described them?

JW: Not at all. In fact, I'll contend that everything that's happened since then has been just a playing out of what resulted in a complete collapse in global confidence in the dollar. The ensuing rapid shift of market focus to crises in the euro area was really more of a foil to distract the global markets from the dollar. Following that horrendous performance by Congress and the White House, the global markets indicated a major loss of confidence in the dollar that had been coming. I think that's now established and in place. The dollar is doomed to lose its reserve status eventually, and any day now, we may see things heat up again over the deficit negotiations.

TGR: What steps would we see on the way to the dollar losing its reserve status?

JW: Probably the biggest thing would be heavy selling pressure against the U.S. dollar, along with a spike in the stronger currencies such as the Swiss franc. The more the pressure builds for selling of the dollar, the more expensive and disruptive it will be for the Swiss National Bank to keep supporting the euro so I don't think that intervention will last long.

As heavy selling of the dollar develops against the Swiss franc, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, and the gold price rallies, we'll see a very strong effort by those who are dependent on the dollar—such as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)—to have the dollar removed from the pricing of oil. Along with that will come a movement to change the dollar's reserve status. (more)

Did JP Morgan Just Convert 614,000 Ounces of MF Global Clients' Silver into JPM Licensed Vaults?

Blythe just tried to sneak a massive 613,738 ounce silver adjustment past the market this afternoon on one of the thinnest trading days of the year, but The Doc's all over it like white on rice- and WAIT TILL YOU SEE WHERE THE RABBIT TRAIL THE DOC JUST RAN DOWN LEADS!

The Morgue adjusted 613,738 ounces of silver from eligible vaults into REGISTERED vaults on Wednesday!
Not to be beaten, Scotia topped its 1.2 M oz deposit reported Wednesday, by receiving a massive deposit of 2,395,835 ounces!
Rather coincidental seeing Brink's had a nearly identical withdrawal Tuesday of 2,346,587 ounces!


*Delaware had a small withdrawal of a single bar (999 ounces) from eligible vaults

*HSBC had a small withdrawal of 2,035 ounces from eligible vaults

*No Changes for Delaware

*Scotia Mocatta reported a massive deposit of 2,395,835 ounces into eligible vaults!

*JP Morgan adjusted 613,738 ounces out of eligible vaults and into REGISTERED VAULTS!
Don't forget this number, we'll get back to it at the end up the inventory update.

*TOTAL COMEX REGISTERED SILVER increased to 34,051,874 ounces
*TOTAL COMEX ELIGIBLE SILVER increased to 73,893,167 ounces
*TOTAL COMEX SILVER INVENTORIES increased to 107,945,041 ounces

Ok. Now back to the 613,738 ounce adjustment by The Morgue. This silver is the 613,738 ounces that was deposited into The Morgue's eligible vaults last Friday, Nov 18th.
Where might this silver have come from?
This is not an ignorant client depositing his phyzz at The Morgue, because it was adjusted today into REGISTERED inventory-meaning its silver that is available for Blythe's delivery needs.

We have been updating readers that 1,420,916 of registered silver is currently unavailable as it is nowhere to be found in the aftermath of the Corzine/ MF Global scandal.
With today's update from The Morgue, The Doc decided to break down the numbers of the unavailable/stolen silver .

Here are the numbers again:

*Registered ounces of metal currently not available for delivery
as of 11/4/11 due to MFGI bankruptcy. Included in above totals.

Brinks 210,320
Delaware 65,706
HSBC 793,734
Scotia Mocatta 351,156
Total: 1,420,916
Now I'm not sure why I never noticed this previously, but isn't it interesting that in the wake of the MF Global client silver theft, there is registered silver missing from EVERY SINGLE VAULT EXCEPT JP MORGAN'S!?!

The Doc decided to break the numbers down one step further, by removing the missing MF Global silver in the HSBC vault (HSBS is the other big bullion back allegedly manipulating the price of silver to the downside) from the totals.

Outside of The Morgue's manipulation buddy HSBC, there are 627,182 ounces of MF Global clients' silver that remain missing.

Now for the timeline:
MF Global is taken down on Oct 31st/Nov 1st. About a week later the CME begins reporting that 1.4 million ounces of registered silver is unaccounted for and unavailable for delivery-including 627,182 ounces from non-cartel banks.
Roughly 7-10 days afterwards, JP Morgan suddenly reports a deposit of 613,738 ounces into eligible vaults.
Exactly 7 days later, JP Morgan adjusts this silver into registered vaults.
JP Morgan has not had a significant silver deposit in MONTHS prior to this 613,738 deposit if my recollection serves me.

This is not an allegation:
Make your own conclusions, I've made mine.

Still think that your silver is safe ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF YOUR OWN POSSESSION!?!
The F***ing Morgue can burn- this is BANKSTER WAR PEOPLE!

Jim Rogers: Japan Stocks Are ‘Very Cheap’

International investor Jim Rogers says buying Japan's bourse is a bargain these days, and domestic investors incurring losses overseas are likely to repatriate funds into the local equity market.

“They will soon start losing money on the money invested abroad so a massive amount of that money is going to come back home,” Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said at a forum in Tokyo, The Taipei Times reports. “I doubt that will go into bank deposits or bonds because interest rates are so low."

"Then at least they can go to commodities or stocks.”

Rogers said he holds shares of Sanrio Co., the Hello Kitty brand licenser, and toymaker Tomy Co. Sanrio has soared 110 percent this year, but Tomy, the Japanese maker of Transformer and Pokemon toys, has slid 27 percent.

Despite these buys, Rogers remains pessimistic about most of the global economy as it faces the prospect of inflation and currency-market turmoil, noting that, in Japan, problems associated with a declining population and a swelling public debt will grow in 10 to 20 years.

Rogers added that he is “very, very bullish on Asia, especially China,” but is waiting for a rout in the Chinese stock market before buying more China shares.

India isn’t attractive because of the nation’s high debt, says Rogers, but Myanmar, with its abundant natural resources and ongoing government reforms, is the “most promising and exciting” Asian market of all.

RTT News reports that Myanmar's recently elected parliament has passed a bill allowing citizens to stage peaceful protests, marking the latest in a series of reforms initiated by the civilian government.

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Good Time to Buy? Housing Cheaper to Own vs. Rent in 12 U.S. Metro Areas

Five years after the market peaked, the housing market remains depressed. October new home sales, released this morning, totaled 307,000, slightly below estimates. Meanwhile, prices rose slightly.

But, as your real estate broker will happily mention - 'Now is a great time to buy!' Unlike 2007, when that obviously was not the case for most, now it might actually be true. Ironically, the reluctance for many to buy a home is what makes it a good (relatively) time to purchase.

As Aaron and Henry discuss in the accompanying clip, owning a home is now more affordable than any time in the last 15 years, based on a new Wall Street Journal survey. In fact -- with the average price of a home $242,300 -- it is now cheaper to own than rent in 12 metro areas including Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando and Phoenix.

As the WSJ article points out, the discrepancy between buying and renting can be extreme in some areas:

"In Atlanta, which had the most favorable values for owning versus renting, the monthly payment on the average home was $539 assuming a 20% down payment during the third quarter. By contrast, the average asking rent stood at $840."

Sagging prices and sub-4% interest on a 30-year fixed mortgage are the biggest drivers behind the trend of record housing affordability. However, unlike the glory days when buying a home merely took a pulse, securing a loan today is much tougher. And, flipping property is a dead game.

No Laws Were Broken

It looks like the EU is getting a bailout from the IMF that could be nearly $800 billion. Gold is going straight up, and I am sure global stock markets will also surge on the bailout news. This will not really fix what is wrong. It will also not put an end to the chronic crisis mode Europe and the U.S. have been in for the past 3 years. I mean, if all the global bailouts didn’t fix the problem, including $16 trillion pumped out by the Fed after the 2008 meltdown, what’s another $800 billion going to do? The reason why things are not going to get better is that corruption is rampant and the financial system is totally broken. Bailouts are treating the symptom, but the disease is unbridled fraud. Many people don’t realize this because the corporate controlled mainstream media will not report on crimes of the financial elite.

Last week, I wrote a piece called “False Narrative.” I was stunned by a comment from a guy named Jim that said, “It amazes me that you maintain the narrative of the “guilt” of private business that asked for consideration from Congress and the president and it was granted. Nobody has gone to jail because no laws were broken.” This is the most false of the false narratives. The 2008 meltdown is 70 times bigger than the S&L crisis of the 1980’s and early 1990’s. Back then, more than 1,000 financial elites were convicted of felonies. According to Professor William Black, the reason why we have “recurrent intensifying crises . . . is these epidemics of fraud from the C-Street—from the CEOs and CFOs.” Professor Black holds duel PhD’s in economics and law, but he is not just some run-of-the-mill academic. Professor Black is also a former bank regulator who spearheaded the cleanup of the S&L crisis. In a speech Black gave last week, he said, “In the Savings and Loans crisis, the inevitable National Commission said that fraud was invariably present at the typical large failure. In the Enron era, always frauds from the very top of the organization, and in this crisis the frauds came from the very top of the organization again. But what’s different in this crisis? In this crisis, the same agency that I worked with that made over 10,000 criminal referrals in a tinier crisis made zero criminal referrals. They got rid of the entire function. And so there are zero convictions of anybody in the elite ranks of Wall Street. And if they can defraud us with impunity they will cause crisis after crisis and they will produce maximum inequality. . . . And that’s why we have a crisis and it came from the very top of these organizations, and it went through—as the FHFA said in its complaint—the largest banks in the world were endemically fraudulent. It is not a few rotten apples. It is an orchard of one percenters who are rotten to the core.” (Click here to read his complete speech.)

Don’t believe the professor, then how about the “maestro” Alan Greenspan. The former Fed Chief admitted the system was fraudulent and needed to be cleaned up last November. He said, “If you cannot trust your counter-parties it won’t work and . . . it didn’t.” He was sitting on set with Ben Bernanke when he said it. Look at the video below, and watch Mr. Bernanke’s face when Greenspan dishes the dirt.

Look at the latest blowup with MF Global. There is more than $1 billion of segregated customer funds missing and not a single criminal charge. Does anyone think Jon Corzine is going to get prosecuted? I’ll be shocked if he is because he has friends in high places including the White House.

Just because nobody has gone to jail doesn’t mean everything is going to be ok and we all get a free pass. According to Karl Denninger at Market-ticker.org, the markets will be the ultimate regulator. Denninger wrote last week, “Without enforcement of the law — swift and certain — there is no deterrent against this behavior. There has been no enforcement and there is no indication that this will change. It will take just one — or maybe two — more events like MF Global and Greek CDS “determinations” before the entire market — all of it — goes “no bid” as participants simply stuff their hands in their pockets and say “screw this.” It’s coming folks, and I guarantee you this: Whatever your “nightmare” scenario is for such an event, it’s not bearish enough.” (Click here for the complete Denninger post. It’s really good!)

You cannot have a thriving economy that is shrouded in fraud and mistrust. Crimes continue to go unpunished, and mistrust is growing. No bailout, no matter how big, will ever fix that.

Is Frontier Communications’ 14% Dividend Yield Safe?

I’ve always been a big fan of Frontier Communications (NYSE:FTR). It’s a quiet little independent telecom company that handles regional services in just a few states like Northern California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Minnesota and New York. It’s the classic under-the-radar play that has done very well for investors over several years — the kind of play you have to find in a specialized screen and one that also must execute its business well.

Things have gotten tough for the company, though. In its recent third-quarter report, the company told of a 30% decline in net income, and an 8% decline in revenue, led by a 12% drop in local and long-distance service revenues. Talk about a hang up! So what’s going on with Frontier and, more importantly, will its 13.7% yield remain intact?

The problem is that, like most other phone companies, Frontier is losing subscribers to cell phone service as folks cut their landlines. Residential customer count fell by 2.3% over the sequential quarter and 10% over the previous year. Business customers fell by almost the same rates. When you lose subscribers like that, you can expect to see revenue and net income get slammed as they did.

What’s hidden in these numbers is that the company bought almost 5 million landline customers from Verizon (NYSE:VZ) several quarters back and, as you might expect, that temporarily boosted revenue and earnings. Now, however, it’s comparison time and the chickens have come home to roost on those telephone wires, so to speak. The company has started new initiatives such as expanding Internet service and satellite TV services by partnering with the big players in that arena.

Still, the problem facing Frontier is that landlines are going the way of the dodo bird. They won’t disappear entirely, but the company may continue losing customers until this trend abates. We’ve already seen Frontier cut its dividend — it did so last year when it chopped it from a buck per share to 75 cents. The company had to do it because it had some big capital expenditures coming down the pike after buying those Verizon lines. Is there another cut in the company’s future?

I like to look at free cash flow to determine if a company is using too much of its assets to pay shareholders. So far this fiscal year, the company has had FCF of $1.21 billion and has paid out dividends of $560 million. That’s about a 2-1 ratio, so about 50% of free cash flow is going to dividends. That’s a perfectly acceptable ratio.

If Frontier continues to lose customers in large numbers, this dividend could be cut. However, if that happens, I don’t suspect it would be more than 50%, which means it would still pay a healthy dividend of almost 7%. Investors looking for rock-solid safety may want to avoid buying now since the future is uncertain. Holders of the stock or those watching the company and trying to decide may want to think about holding for the next two or three quarters to see what develops.

Average New House Price Drops To Lowest Since 2003

Today's new annualized home sales print was 307k, below expectations of 315k (yet oddly better than last month's downward revised which moved from 313k to 303k, wink wink nudge nudge Census bureau). This is not to be confused with the actual number of houses sold which came at a whopping 25k, and the third month in a row in which under 500 homes sold in the over $750,000 category. Yet the most notable data point was the average new house sale price which dropped to $242,300. This is the lowest price since 2003! Something tells us that an MBS LSAP is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

Average New House Sale:

Number of houses in the $750,000 category:

And why the actual sales print was very much irrelevant:

Billionaires’ Top 10 List for Success

Barbara Walters on 20/20 (via The Wealth Report) interviews four billionaires, and culls out some wisdom for managing success.

You may recall that this is an area I have some interest in. Back in June, I wrote up something along similar lines: 7 life lessons from the very wealthy.

Back to The Wealth Report: Here is the top 10 list culled from billionaires:

1. Figure out what you’re so passionate about that you’d be happy doing it for 10 years, even if you never made any money from it. That’s what you should be doing.
2. Always be true to yourself.
3. Figure out what your values are and live by them, in business and in life.
4. Rather than focus on work-life separation, focus on work-life integration.
5. Don’t network. Focus on building real relationships and friendships where the relationship itself is its own reward, instead of trying to get something out of the relationship to benefit your business or yourself.
6. Remember to maximize for happiness, not money or status.
7. Get ready for rejection.
8. Success unshared is failure. Give back — share your wealth.
9. (A secret so powerful, we simply cannot tell you)
10. Successful people do all the things unsuccessful people don’t want to do.

Not a bad list . . .

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