Saturday, February 1, 2014

Dow Dumps To 2nd Worst January In 24 Years

Another volatile day ended with the Dow is down around 5% in January – the worst start to a year since 2009 (and 2nd worst since 1990) and the worst month since May 2012 (a 3-sigma miss of the average +1.5% per month gain since 2009′s lows). Japan, Brazil, and Russia suffered greatly on the month as gold miners, Egypt?, and US Biotech did well. There is a huge 380bps spread between the performance of the Industrials and the Transports YTD. Gold had its best month in the last 5; Treasuries rallied with 10Y yields dropping their most since May 2012; USD rallied the most in 8 months with JPY’s biggest rally (and Nikkei’s biggest loss) since April 2012.
Please share this article

Video: Charles Nenner Sees Long-Term Gold Entry Point Starting In March/April

Mike Norman, Hard Assets Investor (Norman): Hello everybody, and welcome to I’m Mike Norman, your host. My guest today is Charles Nenner, head of Charles Nenner Research, the firm that bears his name. Charles, thanks very much for coming on the show.

Charles Nenner, head, Charles Nenner Research (Nenner): You’re welcome.

Norman: You were formerly an analyst at Goldman Sachs. You went off and started your research company. You have a very unique analytical perspective. You use a lot of cycles or, I guess, human emotion, sentiment, market psychology, investor psychology in what you do. Why don’t we break it down—it’s the beginning of 2014; let’s look at what you see in the major markets—metals, oil, stocks, bonds, the economy. Why don’t you take it from there.

Nenner: Well, the economy I kind of like, may be surprising. I think it’s going to pick up this year. It’s going to be pretty stable, which will bring interest rates higher, but not very high. It’s not that really you will have a spike, now, starting interest rates going up. (more)

Please share this article

10 Secrets of Financial Freedom

Wealth is not gauged by how much money you make, but rather how much you keep.

Accumulating wealth, regardless of your age, gives you options and independence.

It’s sad when people toil in jobs they hate because they need the money. Anyone in that position finds their employer controls their time and, sad to say, much of their happiness (or lack thereof).

We all want to be free to enjoy our lives in the manner we choose.

Those who manage to achieve this state of nirvana have internalized these 10 pillars of financial independence…(more)

Please share this article

Former US Treasury Official – World Faces Catastrophic Danger

from King World News
Today a former US Treasury official warned King World News that the world now faces a catastrophic danger. This is an incredibly important interview, where the former US Treasury official lays out exactly what this catastrophic danger is, as well as what major decisions will have to be made by Western central planners. Below is what Dr. Paul Craig Roberts had to say in this powerful interview.
Eric King: “Dr. Roberts, what is the biggest danger facing the world today?”
Dr. Roberts: “The biggest danger is the drive in Washington for world hegemony because that brings up nuclear war….
Continue Reading at…
Please share this article

Why Will Homebuilders Keep Selling Off?

Today we’re looking at Homebuilders. These guys have been under-performing the market since May of last year. That’s a problem since they had been the leaders for the two years prior. But it’s the actual price action that really concerns me.
The first chart shows weekly candlesticks for the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF. You’ll notice that prices stalled at exactly the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the last real correction in this sector from 2010-2011. But to makes things worse, prices on the second go around temporarily exceeded that key Fibonacci extension and May highs. This false breakout is a big problem, especially as momentum confirmed a bearish divergence last month.
1-31-14 xhb weeklyThe next chart gives us a closer look at these developments over the last year. From false moves come fast ones in the opposite direction. It looks to me based on the weekly and daily charts that there is still a long way down in this space. I’m a seller of any strength.
Please share this article

Long Term, the S&P Has Followed Nikkei’s Bearish Declines

Looking back over the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has done well, up 19%, but the Nikkei did a little bit better, up 41%. When it comes to relative performance, the Nikkei is the clear winner; up 100% more than the S&P.

Twice since 2000, the Nikkei index has formed rising wedges, broke support and fell hard. Each time this took place, the S&P 500 soon followed the Nikkei's lead. Some would say the Nikkei is the canary in the coal mine.

Joe Friday: "The Nikkei has formed a bearish rising wedge (suggest lower prices 65% of the time) at a resistance line where other wedges have broken down and the S&P 500 followed."
Please share this article

Loonie will plummet to 85 cents: TD

TORONTO – Watch for the loonie to lose more of its luster this year, according to two well-known bank economists.
Craig Alexander, chief economist for TD Economics, warned Thursday that consumers could see the Canadian dollar slide as low as 85 cents US by mid-year — a level it hasn’t closed below since May 2009 — if the current environment continues.
He said factors that have impacted the currency so far this year, from an increasingly dovish tone from the Bank of Canada to tapering of monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, will continue to drag down the loonie.
“TD Economics expects that the factors which have taken the Canadian dollar lower are unlikely to shift over the next year or so,” wrote Alexander in the report, titled “The Call of the Loonie.”
“Canada’s economy is forecast to underperform the United States, interest rate hikes remain quite a ways off and the outlook for commodity prices is pretty flat, on average.”
The report noted that a strengthening U.S. greenback and Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz’s perceived stance on a weakened loonie have led the currency’s fall to a four-year low.
Please share this article