Thursday, July 14, 2011
Lindsey Williams - radio liberty 01 July 2011
Pastor Lindsey Williams is back with some explosive updates , about gold Silver and crude oil prices , how the Americans are being impoverished , how can you save your assets , the revolution in the middles east will escalate to levels we can hardly imagine and will spread to more countries in the region , Lindsey Williams explains why Obama was ordered to sell America's strategic oil reserves ...and a lot more
Moody's Puts US AAA Rating On Downgrade Review
Moody's Places US Aaa Government Bond Rating and Related Ratings on Review for Possible Downgrade
New York, July 13, 2011 -- Moody's Investors Service has placed the Aaa bond rating of the government of the United States on review for possible downgrade given the rising possibility that the statutory debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis, leading to a default on US Treasury debt obligations. On June 2, Moody's had announced that a rating review would be likely in mid July unless there was meaningful progress in negotiations to raise the debt limit.
In conjunction with this action, Moody's has placed on review for possible downgrade the Aaa ratings of financial institutions directly linked to the US government: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks, and the Federal Farm Credit Banks. We have also placed on review for possible downgrade securities either guaranteed by, backed by collateral securities issued by, or otherwise directly linked to the US government or the affected financial institutions.
RATIONALE FOR REVIEW
The review of the US government's bond rating is prompted by the possibility that the debt limit will not be raised in time to prevent a missed payment of interest or principal on outstanding bonds and notes.
As such, there is a small but rising risk of a short-lived default.
Moody's considers the probability of a default on interest payments to be low but no longer to be de minimis. An actual default, regardless of duration, would fundamentally alter Moody's assessment of the timeliness of future payments, and a Aaa rating would likely no longer be appropriate. However, because this type of default is expected to be short-lived, and the expected loss to holders of Treasury bonds would be minimal or non-existent, the rating would most likely be downgraded to somewhere in the Aa range.
The specific rating that would be assigned at the conclusion of the review once such a default is cured would depend on (1) the speed with which the default is cured; (2) an assessment of the likely effect on future borrowing costs; and (3) whether there is a change in process for raising the debt limit that would preclude another default. A return to a Aaa rating would be unlikely in the near term, particularly if there were no progress on the third consideration.
While the debt limit has been raised numerous times in the past, and sometimes the issue has been contentious, bond interest and principal have always been paid on time. If the debt limit is raised again and a default avoided, the Aaa rating would likely be confirmed. However, the outlook assigned at that time to the government bond rating would very likely be changed to negative at the conclusion of the review unless substantial and credible agreement is achieved on a budget that includes long-term deficit reduction. To retain a stable outlook, such an agreement should include a deficit trajectory that leads to stabilization and then decline in the ratios of federal government debt to GDP and debt to revenue beginning within the next few years.
Moody's does not take a position on what measures should be included in any deficit reduction package. Instead, it is the resultant deficit and debt trajectories that are relevant to the rating and its outlook.
Safe Havens In Foreign Currency ETFs: BZF, CEW, FXE, FXF, FXY
Investing in currencies remains a foreign concept to most investors for two major reasons. First of all, the average investor does not have the knowledge to determine how currencies fit into their portfolio and they do not know which currencies to own. The second factor has to do with how an investor will gain access to currencies.
Whether you have ever invested in currencies in the past or not, I suggest you continue reading to determine if currency ETFs are a good fit for your portfolio. The obvious benefit of a currency ETF is diversification away from a traditional equity portfolio. They also could hedge a portfolio against situations such as a bear market or the demise of the U.S. dollar.
The Euro Versus the Dollar
The euro spiked to an 18-month high in May versus the U.S. dollar, only to begin a short-term downtrend on the back on concerns about the health of the Eurozone. By this week, the Rydex CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (NYSE:FXE) was trading at a fresh 4-month low. As the fear of more bailouts sweeps through Europe from Greece to Ireland - and newly added Italy - investors are have been dumping the European currency.
Even though the issues in the Eurozone may be real, so are the debt ceiling talks across the pond in the United States. The U.S. dollar has been in a decade-long downtrend even as the government has been promoting a strong dollar policy. The recent bounce in the U.S. dollar can be attributed to the fact the currency is the lesser of two evils. This is why the PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (NYSE:UUP) is near a multi-month high.
Emerging Markets
The emerging market currencies have been holding up well as their underlying economies continue to grow at above average paces. This niche sector can add diversification to a portfolio and offer opportunities to gain exposure to emerging markets.
The WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency ETF (NYSE:CEW) invests in money markets in 12 different emerging market countries. The goal of CEW is to generate a return that reflects the money market rates in the foreign countries as well as the exchange rate with the United States. Some of the countries included in the ETF are South Africa, China, Mexico, Turkey and India. The current distribution yield is 3.6% and the expense ratio is 0.55%.
Brazil is included in CEW, however, if you want to focus solely on the Brazilian real there is the WisdomTree Dreyfus Brazilian Real ETF (NYSE:BZF). The ETF has been very strong over the last few years as the Brazilian currency continues to climb along with the country's economy and stock market. This is one of my favorite single-country currency ETFs.
Safe Haven
The two foreign currencies that are the safe haven during rough times in the equity market are the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc.
The Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSE:FXY) has been my "insurance" investment during rough times for equities. In 2008 when the S&P 500 fell 38%, FXY gained 20%. The ETF is currently near a new high and has been extremely strong over the last two weeks of volatility in the stock market.
The Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF (NYSE:FXF) has the best chart of all foreign currencies and is a few ticks from a new high. The ETF has been the leader in 2011, up 12% and beating its peers and the equity indexes. The currency has always been viewed as a safety play due to the country's strong economic background, low unemployment and low debt ratio.
The Choice
The choice comes down to which currency ETF, if any, you should own. Unfortunately, all investors are different and that decision needs to be made by you or your advisor. For our clients, we look to create a mix of currency ETFs depending on the current market environment. The safe havens appear to be the most attractive at this time.
The No-Experience Resume For College Grads
You've donned the cap and gown and you are staring down years' worth of student loans – congratulations, you've graduated! For those looking to enter the job market, you probably triumphantly added your new degree to your resume - and nothing else. After years in academics, any area of your resume except education might feel a bit empty. Here are a few tips to highlight your true potential to your first employer.
Highlight the Experience You Do Have Consider using this trick. Look up your ideal job and read through the posting (it doesn't have to be geographically desirable, just the right career opportunity). Highlight or keep a list of the keywords used and find a way to incorporate them into your own resume. Even if you don't have the exact experience they are requesting, think about parallel experience that you do have. For example, that perfect job posting may request experience in project management; you may never have done that in a formal office setting, but organizing the large charity event you ran last summer will undoubtedly have required a similar skill set. Make sure you do yourself the credit of highlighting all of your relevant experience – there's likely to be more than you think!
Add Unpaid Experience Just because you didn't get a paycheck doesn't mean you didn't walk away with something valuable. Consider any volunteer experience you might have as if it had been a job; list the responsibilities you had, the skills it required, and the goals you achieved.
Include Soft Skills We've probably all found ourselves in this situation: your interviewer asks if you have any experience in a particular field or situation, for example, conflict resolution with a coworker. Luckily, you remember a time when you had to resolve a scheduling issue with someone you worked with. You do have conflict resolution experience! But is this skill listed on your resume?
Mark Jeffries, a leading expert on soft skills in career management, describes soft skills as "anything that enables you to influence others, to pitch ideas, and to successfully persuade others to take action," according to CareerJoy.com. Do you take initiative on new projects? Do you have a tendency to rework organizational systems for the better? These are all highly marketable skills.
The catch is that you can't just list them out on a resume. Imagine if you were the hiring manager reading a list of 30 soft skills: leadership, communications, people skills, zzzzz… Don't do yourself the disservice of boring the person who is reading your resume. Instead, look for ways to incorporate these keywords into concrete examples. It will keep a human reader engaged, and still help an automated resume scanner or bot to flag you as a possible candidate.
Consider Your Education Completing your education is nothing to sneeze at. It may seem to you as if everyone has a degree, but that's simply not the case; and having that diploma means more than just a framed piece of paper. Successful students must exhibit exceptional time management skills, project management, attention to detail, and be strong readers, writers and (though it may seem obvious) learners. These are all skills your potential boss needs to know about.
Beyond the skills it took to get you through school, consider highlighting what you actually did. Did you earn any scholarships? Take on extra-curricular responsibilities like student government? Perhaps you organized an event for your dorm-mates. On the academic side, did you complete a thesis? Assist a professor? Go over your academic career carefully and make note of all of your accomplishments, no matter how small they may seem.
Highlight, Don't Lie There's a slippery slope between shining a spotlight on an accomplishment (and, let's be honest, polishing it up a bit) and outright lying. If you really did start a small summer business selling homemade greeting cards, play it up! You probably did some marketing, client schmoozing, and kept your own books. But don't lie about the size or profits of your business just to make it seem more legitimate. Lying on your resume, even seemingly harmless lies, is the fastest way to get your resume ripped up.
The Bottom Line Recent graduates face a unique challenge when they enter the working world for the first time. But just because you've been in school for the last few years doesn't mean you aren't a desirable candidate. It just means you need to find a way to showcase your best without relying on a ton of work experience. And really, marketing yourself effectively is the goal of all jobseekers.
Fertilizer Stocks Ready To Sprout?: CF, MON, POT
The agriculture chemicals and fertilizer stocks have been a great group for traders both before and after the steep bear market. This group has been incredibly volatile, while also enjoying several sustained trends. Recently, this group has fallen under the radar as it consolidates and other groups step in to capture investor's attention. However, some of these stocks are starting to perk up and, due to their history, traders should be paying attention.
Monsanto Company Common Stock(NYSE:MON) is one of these stocks that has started to show some life as it recently cleared a channel it had been following during its consolidation. MON appeared to be lifeless in mid-June, until a sharp gap on increased volume ignited the stock. It subsequently rallied through the top of the channel and has been consolidating near its recovery highs. This is bullish action and traders should monitor these highs near $76 to see if MON can overcome this resistance level. (For more, see Monsanto Makeover Pays Off
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, Inc. (NYSE:POT) is another stock that has started to show some life. It also has been following a channel as it consolidates, and rallied along with MON in late June. It hasn't cleared the channel definitively like MON, but is in the process of testing for a breakout. Traders should keep a close eye on it to see if buyers can assume control at this point. (For related reading, also see 5 Things To Know About Potash.)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. Co (NYSE:CF) hasn't quite followed its peers in either the consolidation, or the attempted breakout. In fact, this stock has been more volatile as it shakes both shorts and longs out near the boundaries of the current base. However, one thing it does have in common is that CF is showing some signs of life as it rises to test aresistance level. The $155 area has been capping recent rally attempts, and traders should keep a close eye on this area as CF attempts to push through again.
Summing Up
How the markets trade through the rest of the summer will likely have a deep impact in how these stocks behave as they attempt to clear these resistance levels. If the markets fall apart, then these stocks will likely suffer alongside them. However, with the power of the recent market bounce, it is possible that the markets can resume heading higher in the near future. If this does transpire, then the agriculture stocks could easily reclaim their spot in the limelight and provide a great trading opportunity.
McAlvany Weekly Commentary
An Interview With 2012 Presidential Candidate Herman Cain
Posted on 13 July 2011.
A Look at This Weeks Show:
-The middle class: “When they feel the heat, they’ll see the light.”
-Replace the flawed U.S. tax code with a national sales tax.
-Work toward a gold standard.
Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Coming to an End as Index Falls
The best currency forecasters say the dollar’s 12 percent slide over the past year is coming to an end as Europe’s deepening debt crisis discourages bets against the world’s reserve currency.
Led by Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd., the five most- accurate firms during the six quarters through June 30 as measured by Bloomberg see the dollar trading at $1.42 per euro on average by year-end, compared with $1.43 on July 8. Against the yen, they predict the greenback will rise to 83 from 80.64.
While Moody’s Investors Service added to Europe’s woes last week by lowering Portugal’s credit ranking to junk, the dollar is regaining its status as a haven after the worst performance over the past year among 10 developed-market currencies based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar is up 5.9 percent from a 17-month low on May 4 against the euro.
“There’s not a lot of room left for it to weaken beyond $1.50 to the euro, and we still see it recovering to about $1.40 by year-end,” said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider in London, who had an average margin of error of 5.05 percent across all currency pairs. “The risk of a disorderly default is, for now, much higher in Europe than in the U.S.”
Hedge Fund Bets
Hedge funds and other large speculators are no longer betting the dollar is going to collapse.
Wagers on a decline against peers including the euro, yen and pound were 203,230 on July 5, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed last week. That’s down from 405,267 in March, the most since at least November 2003.
“It’s difficult for the dollar to fall out of bed,” said Paul Mackel, director of currency strategy in London at HSBC Holdings Plc, the eighth most-accurate forecaster. “The euro- zone crisis has definitely slowed the pace of dollar weakness. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and will be for some time to come.”
HSBC sees it ending the year at $1.44 per euro, compared with $1.4037 as of 10:23 a.m. in New York. It earlier strengthened to $1.4026, the highest since May 25. The greenback accounted for 60.7 percent of the world’s currency reserves in the first quarter, compared with 61.8 percent a year earlier, the International Monetary Fund in Washington said June 30.
The U.S. currency rallied 1.8 percent last week against the 17-member euro and has dropped 5.4 percent this year. It fell 0.3 percent today to 80.42 yen.
Dollar Index
The dollar has stabilized as the euro-region debt crisis worsened, forcing Greece to seek a second bailout in little more than a year from the European Union and the IMF, stirring speculation Portugal and Ireland will follow.
The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against those of six trading partners, rose in four of the past five weeks as the German government and the European Central Bank debated how best to ward off a Greek default and investors fled riskier assets.
EU leaders are pushing banks and insurance companies who hold Greek bonds to contribute to a new aid package after last year’s 110 billion-euro ($156 billion) rescue failed to stop the region’s debt crisis from spreading.
The threat of contagion has sparked a surge in the cost of insuring against Spanish and Italian defaults, with the yields on the 10-year securities rising to euro-era record spreads with equivalent German debt today.
“Everyone is aware inside and outside of the euro area that these countries cannot bail themselves out of these debt burdens,” said Schneider’s Gallo in a Bloomberg Television interview with Betty Liu on “In the Loop.” “The bottom line is there is no way to ring fence this entirely the losses are going to have be swallowed.”
Earnings Growth
Earnings growth is rebounding in the U.S., albeit at a slower pace. Companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index are poised to boost income by 19 percent in 2011, including a 13 percent advance in the second quarter, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
The gain will push profits back in line with their average increase of 6.9 percent over the last 51 years, data compiled by Brockhouse & Cooper Inc. and Bloomberg show.
“Our central scenario is that the U.S. dollar is bouncing along the bottom,” said Richard Grace, chief currency strategist and head of international economics in Sydney at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the ninth-best forecaster.
Concern the U.S. economy will falter and a growing debt load may hurt the dollar.
Data from the Labor Department in Washington on July 8 showed employers added jobs in June at the slowest pace in nine months. Payrolls rose by 18,000, less than the 105,000 positions forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy may grow 1.1 percent in the 12 months ending June 2012, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelandusing Treasury yields and growth data for the past five years to project output for the coming 12 months. That’s less than half the 2.7 percent to 2.9 percent range projected by the Fed in its official estimates.
The U.S. risks missing debt payments should Republicans and Democrats fail to agree on raising the $14.3 trillion federal borrowing limit before an Aug. 2 deadline. S&P said June 30 it would cut the U.S.’s credit rating to D, the lowest level on its scale of creditworthiness, should a failure to raise the debt limit lead to a default.
“It’s really hard to build a near-term to six-month story where the U.S. dollar rallies when they have no credible fiscal plan in place,” saidCamilla Sutton, chief currency strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia. The firm is the seventh- ranked forecaster in the survey.
‘Negative on Dollar’
The dollar will slide to $1.52 per euro by year-end, following a decline to $1.50 by the end of the third quarter, according to Societe Generale SA, the second-most accurate forecaster, whose average margin of error was 5.21 percent.
“I’m negative on the dollar,” said Kit Juckes, London- based head of foreign-exchange research at the company. “The U.S. favors a weaker currency as part of its economic solution and with employment well below where they want it to be, the Fed will keep rates lower for longer.”
The Fed won’t raise its target interest rate for overnight loans between banks, currently a range of zero to 0.25 percent, until the second quarter of 2012, according to the median forecast of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Schneider’s Gallo estimates the dollar will end the year at $1.40, about 1.9 percent stronger from last week, and number three Wells Fargo & Co. predicts a recovery to $1.39.
Fourth-ranked JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the dollar weakening to $1.48 by year-end. Credit Agricole SA, the most bullish dollar forecaster and ranked fifth in the survey, estimates $1.30.
‘Safest Bet’
“The safest bet is to stay long the dollar against the yen,” said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo in New York, the third-most accurate forecaster. “As soon as the market starts to see a shift in interest-rate futures, that would be enough for the dollar to move higher. We expect this to happen by the end of the fourth quarter.”
While the Fed repeated after last month’s meeting it will keep its key rate at a record low for an “extended period,” the U.S. currency may find support from the June end of the central bank’s asset-purchase program, or quantitative easing, known as QE2, which helped depress bond yields this year.
“We don’t have a scenario where the U.S. economy weakens a lot further or in a prolonged sense such that the Fed then undertakes another round of quantitative easing,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, the number six forecaster. “We don’t see a further large fall in the U.S. dollar.”
‘Positive Dollar Impact’
The dollar appreciated on June 22 after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke ruled out a third round of asset purchases.
“As U.S. bond yields begin to gradually drift upwards in anticipation of policy normalization from the Fed, a lot of the liquidity that has drained out of the U.S. is going to flow back again,” said Daragh Maher, deputy head of global foreign- exchange strategy at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London, which had a margin of error of 5.65 percent. “That’s going to have some positive dollar impact.”
Currency forecasters were ranked according to the accuracy of their estimates for the six quarters beginning with the first three months of 2010. Long-term accuracy was judged by a forecast for the twelve-months to end-June 2011.
Only firms with at least four forecasts for a particular currency pair were ranked, and only those that qualified in at least five of eight pairs were included in the ranking of best overall predictors. In all, 50 firms submitted enough forecasts to be ranked in at least one currency.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)