U.S. Stocks Rise, S&P 500 Extends Best Quarterly Gain Since ‘98

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, extending the best quarterly rally for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1998, as higher oil prices lifted energy shares and speculation grew that the recession is easing.

Exxon Mobil Corp. gained 2.2 percent as crude climbed above $71 a barrel. Microsoft Corp. added 2.2 percent after Deutsche Bank AG raised its price estimate for the world’s biggest software company. Ford Motor Co. rallied 3 percent after predicting the slowest slide in sales among major automakers. Treasuries advanced for a third day, sending 10-year yields to the lowest level in a month. (more)

VIX Drops to Lowest Level Since Lehman’s Collapse as Fear Ebbs

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- The benchmark index for U.S. stock options returned to its level before the September collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., as an almost four-month rally in equities and signs the economy is improving helped calm concern spurred by the worst recession in 51 years.

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, lost 2.2 percent to 25.35 at 4:14 p.m. New York time, putting it below the Sept. 12 close of 25.66. It measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which added 0.9 percent. (more)

Pickens: Oil Could Go to $300 a Barrel

Legendary oil man T. Boone Pickens says that if the U.S. doesn’t take major steps to curb its reliance on foreign oil, the consequences will be drastic.

“Let’s say in 10 years, you do nothing,” Pickens tells Fortune.

“You will be importing 75 percent of your oil (up from 68 percent now), and you’ll be paying $300 a barrel.” (more and watch the video)

Wall Street Journal June29, 2009

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Bond Dealers Say Worst Over as Demand Soars at Sales

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s largest bond-trading firms say the worst may be over for investors in Treasuries after government securities posted their biggest first-half losses in at least three decades.

The 16 primary dealers, which trade directly with the Federal Reserve and are obligated to bid at Treasury auctions, forecast the benchmark 10-year note yield will finish the year little changed at 3.58 percent, after rising from 2.21 percent at the end of 2008, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.

The dealers, which include JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., say the sell-off will slow after signs emerged this month that foreign buyers are scooping up record amounts of debt being sold by the Obama administration. Plus, yields at the highest since November are luring investors speculating that the economy’s recovery may be slow. (more)

Dollar to Rise Most Since 1981, Best Predictor Says

June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Strategists who came closest to predicting the dollar’s value against the euro so far this year see it strengthening as much as 17 percent in the second half as the U.S. recovers from the recession faster than Europe.

CIBC World Markets Plc, Deutsche Bank AG, Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. estimate the U.S. currency will rise more than 4 percent by Dec. 31 after May ended with its sharpest three-month fall since 2002. At the start of the year, all had second-quarter forecasts within a penny or two of the $1.4056- per-euro close on June 26, Bloomberg’s currency survey shows. (more)

Trend Trader For June 29, 2009