We watch the analyst recommendations on
stocks closely for a couple of reasons. First, we like to know when the
analyst community has become overly optimistic on a stock as it often
identifies that it has run its bullish
course. The simple rule to follow here is that if everyone is bullish
it's usually not a bad time to be locking in your profits.
Case-in-point, Apple (NASDAQ:
AAPL).
With nearly 90% of the analysts covering the stock rating it a "buy" or
"strong buy," it has turned into a stock with avalanche potential,
i.e., a relatively small amount of sellers can cause it to cascade down
to lower prices. It doesn't
mean that the stock is necessarily bad, just that it has more selling potential due to the large crowd of investors holding it.
The
reverse is also true in that a stock that is performing well with low
analyst ranks has the potential to explode higher. Why, you ask? Simply
put, Analysts aren't paid to be wrong on a stock, which means that a
stock that outperforms the
market
should grab analysts' attention and drive upgrades. For this reason, we
closely monitor a list of stocks that are outperforming the market with
low analyst recommendations as these stocks are more likely to see
upgrades and, thus, even higher prices.
The table below identifies
10 stocks that are beating the S&P 500 over the past three months,
with 50-day moving averages that are trending higher (a simple measure
of technical strength), and fewer than 30% "buy" recommendations from
the analyst community. This serves as a great list of stocks that
traders have the ability to buy ahead of potential upgrades from the
analyst community.
Below we'll go into more depth on three stocks we like right now from the list.
Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT)
Investors are deathly afraid of the "fiscal cliff" knocking the market and
economy
for a loop in 2013. From a logical standpoint (which could be a
problem) the politicians in Washington are far better served by solving
the situation before the Dec. 31 deadline, which would likely tack an
easy 1,000 points onto the Dow and give companies like LMT a boost.
Analysts
and traders are afraid to touch LMT now given its revenue from defense
spending, which could catch the axe if we go over the cliff. We're
betting that this doesn't happen and that this 5% yielder
will attract not only traders, but also continue to get the attention of high-yield investors.
Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy LMT at the
market price-- Set stop-loss at $90
-- Set
price target at $100 for a potential 8% gain by year-end
Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC)
We move into 2013 with the knowledge that "
Obamacare"
will continue to move toward full implementation. For the most part,
the law is seen to put additional pressure on insurance providers while
providing somewhat of a tailwind for health care providers like Tenet.
From a sheer technical perspective, this company is a dream as it has been a
relative strength
leader against the market and is breaking to new 52-week highs.
Sentiment on THC remains negative, which suggests that robust upside
potential exists as the bears could change posture and turn into buyers.
We favor a target of $30 before year-end.
Recommended Trade Setup:-- Buy THC at the market price
-- Set stop-loss at $26
-- Set price target at $30 for a potential 6% gain by year-end
Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO)
Don't
call
it a comeback, they've been here for years (sorry for the LL Cool J
reference). It's true, though, Yahoo has been around and had the tools
for success; its lack of it appears to have been a personnel issue,
which may now be on the mend.
Wall Street votes with its accounts, and YHOO
shares
are reflecting some trust in new management. We don't typically like
stocks that are trading nearly 30% higher over a three-month period, but
Yahoo is likely to march higher as traders and analysts improve their
outlook for the shares.
Look for a price of around $21 by
January, a return of almost 12%. Not bad for a company that was all but
dead a few quarters ago.
Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy YHOO at the market price
-- Set stop-loss at $18.50
-- Set price target at $21 for a potential 12% gain by year-end