Saturday, August 31, 2013

Former US Treasury Official – U.S. To Experience Total Collapse / August 30, 2013
Today a former US Treasury Official shocked King World News when he warned that the U.S. would experience a total collapse.  He also warned that the entire Western financial system will be brought to its knees because, unlike 1980 when he and others saved the United States from collapse, the collapse cannot be stopped this time.  This is without question one of the most powerful interviews Dr. Paul Craig Roberts’ has ever done.

Dr. Roberts:  “The (U.S.) deficit projections, if they are honestly done by the Congressional Budget Office and the Office of Management and Budget, will show a larger deficit projection then Congress faced the last time they refused to deal with the issue.

So, what will they do when as of mid-October the new Treasury Secretary has said that ‘The Treasury will have run out of tricks’ to get around the debt ceiling limit.  For example, what the Treasury has done to evade this limit is to pay itself dividends out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (laughter ensues)….
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When a little birdie dropped the End Game memo through my window, its content was so explosive, so sick and plain evil, I just couldn't believe it. 
The Memo confirmed every conspiracy freak’s fantasy: that in the late 1990s, the top US Treasury officials secretly conspired with a small cabal of banker big-shots to rip apart financial regulation across the planet. When you see 26.3 percent unemployment in Spain, desperation and hunger in Greece, riots in Indonesia and Detroit in bankruptcy, go back to this End Game memo, the genesis of the blood and tears.
The Treasury official playing the bankers’ secret End Game was Larry Summers. Today, Summers is Barack Obama’s leading choice for Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, the world’s central bank. If the confidential memo is authentic, then Summers shouldn’t be serving on the Fed, he should be serving hard time in some dungeon reserved for the criminally insane of the finance world. (more)
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Warning: The last two times this happened, stocks fell 50%

When investors get cocky, they end up borrowing money to invest in the stock market, via margin accounts.  The above outstanding chart, created by Doug Short, reflects that margin debt remains near record levels. 
Why could this be important?  The last two times in the past 13-years, when margin debt was this high the S&P 500 declined 50% in value.  Does it mean SPY will decline 50% again? NOPE!!!
If history is a guide, it does reflect that stocks are above average in risk at this time!
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Your Money Is Not Safe In The Banks

Money Is Not Safe In The Big Banks
Glass Steagall is a solution. Otherwise, the tax-lords will continue to play the Wall Street Casino, with stolen public money. If the computers crash; the next action will be to bail in peoples savings accounts down into a black-hole robber-baron cesspool of inequality.

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Kondratieff Wave ~ The Economic Winter is Here with Peter Baxter

Kondratieff Wave theory details how capitalist economies experience a recurring cycle. It's a boom and bust of around 60 years that coincides with a peak in credit. The cycle consists of four distinct phases based on mood changes. The tone determines the actions of individuals involved in the economy. The cycle duration of the so-called K-Wave is also similar to the human lifespan. So, when each economic "winter" rolls around, the problem is cultural memory loss. Bob talks to Peter Baxter, author of, about deflation in the winter cycle.

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Nearly 90 Million Americans No Longer In The Labor Force

A record 90 million Americans who are no longer even looking for work.Boomers retiring really is a big chunk of this. This is actually bad news though, because these people aren't going back to work under any circumstances apart from imminent starvation. In other words, the labor participation rate will necessarily continue to fall.
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How to Invest with Zero Downside and Unlimited Upside

In 2005, I found a no-downside, unlimited-upside deal...
It seemed to be too good to be true. So I flew to London to check it out.
The worst-case return was 7% annual interest for 10 years. But if the asset went up more than that, I could sell it and pocket the gain.
In short, there ARE deals out there with zero downside and unlimited upside... even today, as I'll show you...
When I found that deal in 2005, the asset was Beatles autographs. So the Beatles have been hanging on my wall for eight years now. (I have two more years to go on this contract before I decide whether to sell or take my 7% a year.)
The terms were so good, it almost didn't matter what the asset was...(more)
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The Trillion Dollar Crisis Facing the U.S.

Fears of climate change seems to rise and fall with natural disasters. The East Coast has been fortunate to avoid a hurricane so far this season but out West wildfires have been destroying homes, businesses and forests.

More than 200 square miles are now burning in Yosemite National Park threatening groves of giant sequoias as well as a reservoir that supplies water and power to San Francisco.

Thirty-six large fires are raging in eight western states, from Wyoming to Washington State, plus Texas and Alaska, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Its web site says the “fire potential remains above normal for a large portion of the Northwest and California Mountains” because “fuels remain much drier than normal.”

That dryness is due to climate change, according to Ramez Naam, a technologist and author who has written extensively on climate change. “Wildfires are about four times more common in the U.S. now because of climate change,” says Naam.  (more)

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Friday, August 30, 2013

5 Ways To Protect and Grow Your Retirement: Whether You’re 45 or 75 or Somewhere In Between

from Gold Seek
We just recently Money Weekly‘s first birthday, and this milestone also got me thinking… If I had a magic wand and could instantly pass along a bundle of critical information to my peers, what would that message include? Since I don’t have a magic wand, I had to distill a bit of my practical wisdom down to five points (no easy task).
#1. We Are All Pension Fund Managers Now
These days, unless you are a government employee, there is a 97% chance you will not retire with a pension. Instead, you probably have some sort of IRA or 401(k) and other personal savings that you will need to supplement those measly Social Security checks. We have all been thrust into the job of managing our own personal pension funds, so we might as well embrace the challenge and continue our financial education.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Southern Copper Corp (NYSE: SCCO)

Southern Copper Corporation engages in mining, exploring, producing, smelting, and refining copper and other minerals in Peru, Mexico, and Chile. It is involved in the mining, milling, and flotation of copper ore to produce copper and molybdenum concentrates; smelting of copper concentrates to produce anode copper; and refining of anode copper to produce copper cathodes, as well as refined silver. The company operates the Toquepala and Cuajone mine complexes and the smelting and refining plants, which produce copper with production of by-products of molybdenum, silver, and other material. It also has the La Caridad and Buenavista mine complexes and the smelting and refining plants that produce copper with production of by-products of molybdenum, silver, and other material. In addition, the company operates five underground mines that produce zinc, copper, silver, and gold; a coal mine, which produces coal and coke; and a zinc refinery. It has 80,512 hectares of exploration concessions in Peru; 123,293 hectares of exploration concessions in Mexico; 100,383 hectares of exploration concessions in Argentina; 35,958 hectares exploration concessions in Chile; and 2,544 hectares of exploration concessions in Ecuador.

To review Southern’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of SCCO (Southern Copper Corporation) below with my added notations:


SCCO has been in a persistent downtrend since January of this year. During that time the stock has also formed an important trend line of resistance (red). Always remember, any (2) points can start a trend line, but it’s the 3rd test and beyond that confirm its importance. As you can see, SCCO’s trendline was very important. Now that the stock has broken that resistance SCCO should either move higher or begin to form a base.

The Tale of the Tape: SCCO has broken a downtrending resistance. The stock should be bottoming out and eventually moving higher. Now would be a good time to watch the stock to identify a key level of entry, like for example, on a pullback down to $26.
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Sprott Resource Corp. (TSX: SCP) : Has a Misstep by Management Created an Opportunity for Value Investors?

It was only eight months ago when the management of Sprott Resource Corp. (TSX: SCP) announced that it would institute a lucrative dividend.  At the time, current Sprott Resource investors, while maybe a little confused, were for the most part willing accomplices.  After all, the initial rate would give them a handsome yield and pushed the price of the stock up over 10% on the day of the announcement.  The stock continued to soar as income oriented investors piled in, laying there claim to a juicy yield of over 10%. A few weeks after the announcement, the stock was up over 24%.

Fast forward to the present.  The stock price is now down roughly 20% from where it closed the day prior to the dividend announcement and down over 40% from its 2013 peak.  Why the crash?  Management decided to pull the plug on the dividend and in the process, pulled the rug out from under its investors.  Even with the hefty yield, investors that bought after the dividend announcement still find themselves, for lack of a better term, holding the bag.   The only good news…the bag is loaded with potentially valuable assets. (more)

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Trader alert: One of the world's biggest banks could be on the verge of another big decline: JPM

JPMorgan has declined 50% in value – twice, along line (1) – since 1998.

Now this leading financial company is back at this key resistance line again, and has formed a bearish rising wedge. It's now looking like support of the wedge is breaking...

Read full article (with chart)...

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COTD: Earnings & Profits Per Share Suggest Overvalution

Today’s chart of the day was the result of a question by my friend Richard Rosso who asked if corporate profits were suggesting that the current market environment was becoming overvalued.  The timing of the question was apropos as I was already pondering a statement made by Matthew O’Brien at the Atlantic who stated:
“Just because the price of something is going up doesn’t mean it’s a bubble. Even if it’s going up a lot. And even if it’s something you don’t like. After all, there might be a good reason it’s going up so much. A good reason like … record profits.”
While Matthew was addressing whether, or not, the artificially inflated markets have once again started to reach “bubble” territory, and there are certainly arguments that suggest it well could be, the importance of his argument really focuses around the notion of record profits.
The mistake that is likely being made by many is the assumption that when profits reach a new “record” it is the beginning of a new trend rather than the end of something that begin some time ago.  The issue comes when mainstream analysts begin manipulating data in order to justify current market dynamics.  In this instance in order to justify high market prices one must assume that the current “record” levels of profits will continue forward indefinitely.  The problem with that assumption is that this has never been the case historically and one that will likely not manifest in the future.
The chart below shows several things of importance relating to the current valuation of the financial markets.  The only valid measure of market valuation that is historically consistent is trailing twelve month REPORTED earnings per share.  Using other measures such as operating, or pro-forma, earnings to try and justify current market levels is both inconsistent and inaccurate when performing valuation analysis.  I have also included price to corporate profits (NIPA) per share for a comparative measure.
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Why Oil Could Rise Even Without Syria Tensions

Oil markets got a bit of a shocker Wednesday from a SocGen prediction that Brent could reach $125 a barrel in the coming days in connection with a U.S.-led retaliation against Syria. And if there’s a big regional spillover from this, SocGen says $150 Brent could be not far off.

But the investment bank isn’t the first to the game on a bullish oil call.

Yves Lamoureux, president of Lamoureux & Company, a market advisory firm based on behavioral economics, set a new price target of $140 for WTI crude about two weeks ago. Unlike SocGen, his call has little to do with the Syrian conflict.

Lamoureux backs up his oil call with these three reasons:
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Thursday, August 29, 2013

Gold Poised To Super-Surge 150% & Silver A Staggering 300%

from KingWorldNews:
Eric King: “Tom, we are continuing to see these advances in gold and silver that you predicted would happen. Let’s start with gold.”
Fitzpatrick: “Yes. Overall we are still of the view that what we saw was a very deep correction in secular bear market, but a correction nonetheless. The platform which has now been established with the recent low, below $1,200, is going to be a platform for a substantial move higher….
“The price of gold is now advancing above the area that really marked the breakdown point in gold. This area is where gold has the rising trendline and the 55-month moving average. These zones come in around the $1,390 to $1,405 levels.
Tom Fitzpatrick continues @
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Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO)

Tesoro Corporation engages in refining and marketing petroleum products in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining and Retail. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feed stocks into transportation fuels, such as gasoline, gasoline blend stocks, jet fuel, and diesel fuel, as well as other products, including heavy fuel oils, liquefied petroleum gas, petroleum coke, and asphalt. This segment also sells refined products in the wholesale market primarily through independent unbranded distributors; and in the bulk market primarily to independent unbranded distributors, other refining and marketing companies, utilities, railroads, airlines and marine, and industrial end-users in the western United States. It owns and operates 7 refineries with a combined crude oil capacity of approximately 675 thousand barrels per day. The Retail segment sells gasoline, diesel fuel, and convenience store items through company-operated retail stations, and third-party branded dealers and distributors in the western United States.

To review a current H&S pattern on Tesoro’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TSO (Tesoro Corporation) below with my added notations:


TSO had rallied from a low of $35 in November to a peak of $65 in May. Over the last (6) months the stock had created a very important level of support at $50 (purple), which was also the “neckline” support for the H&S pattern. Above the neckline you will notice the H&S pattern itself (blue). Confirmation of the H&S occurred yesterday when TSO broke its $50 “neckline” support. So, the stock should be moving lower overall from here.

Keep in mind that simple is usually better. Had I never pointed out this H&S pattern, one would still think this stock is moving lower simply if it broke below the $50 support level. In short, whether you noticed the pattern or not, the trade would still be the same: On the break below the key $50 level.

The Tale of the Tape: After embarking on a nice rally higher, TSO confirmed a head & shoulders pattern. A short trade could be placed now, or could be entered on any rallies up to or near the $50 area.
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

John Embry on Gold

About this week’s show:
-Official stats bogus, basis for most decisions
-Western central banks running out of gold
-Gold to rise in early fall
About the guest: 
Mr. John P. Embry serves as the Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP and Member of Social Responsibility Committee at Sprott Inc. Mr. Embry serves as Vice President and Portfolio Manager at RBC Asset Management Inc. Mr. Embry served as the Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager of Sprott Asset Management, LP, the Manager of Sprott Physical Platinum and Palladium Trust.

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Future Silver Supply in Question as Mexico Oil Production Declines

by Steve St. Angelo
SRSRocco Report

The largest silver producing country in the world saw its oil production decline to the lowest level since 1995. Mexico who produced 162 million ounces of silver in 2012 is slated to increase this substantially by the end of the decade… that is, if they have the available energy to do so.
If we look at the chart below, we can see just how much Mexico’s oil production has declined since 2000:
[...] The last plot line on the chart was for June 2013 which was approximately 2.51 mbd (million barrels a day). However, according to PEMEX, Mexico’s state-run oil company, in the month of July its production of crude & condensate declined to 2.48 mbd.
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Chart of the Day - Primo Water (PRMW)

The Chart of the Day is Primo Water (PRMW).  The stock has 96% Barchart technical buy signals and  Trend Spotter buy signal.  I found the stock by sorting the New High List and then using the flipchart feature to pan through the charts to find the one I like.

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Gold mining: Uncertainty in South Africa as unions reject wage hike offer: AU, GF, HMY

Hopes of a speedy solution to the unrest in mining industry in South Africa have receded as the National Union Mineworkers (NUM) which represents about 64% of the mine workers have rejected the mining industry offer to raise wages by six percent.
NUM rejecting the final pay offer made by the Chamber of Mines said the six percent hike was a big joke and they reject the offer with contempt.
The gold mining companies involved in the negotiations were AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) , Gold Fields (NYSE:GF), Rand Uranium, Harmony Gold (NYSE: HMY), Evander Gold, Sibanye Gold, and Village Main Reef.
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Wednesday, August 28, 2013

S&P 500 Futures Lose Critical Technical Level

For the first time since the most recent rally began in November, S&P 500 futures have retested (and broken below) the 100-day moving average within days of a previous break (without making new highs). It would appear the BTFD mentaliity is less exuberant with war and a tapering Fed in the background. And for those great rotators… 30Y yields are at 2 week lows…
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Get Ready For War The Dow Jones – Turning Down?

by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics

The US share market should have bottomed Friday/Monday. Instead, we inverted and made a meager high. This is not good at all. This warns we may see a test of the bottom of that channel next week or as late as the week of October 7th.
Everything is indicating Obama may start a war attacking Syria BEFORE Congress returns. September has been a major target this year all along. The fundamentals keep increasing for this target. We began with the German elections. Then we added the Debt Ceiling issue. But there is something even more serious why Obama needs a war and the mainstream press is lined up goose-stepping to whatever the Obama Administration dictates.
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First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)

First Solar, Inc. provides solar energy solutions. It operates in two segments, Components and Systems. The Components segment engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of solar modules that convert sunlight into electricity. It primarily serves project developers, system integrators, and operators of renewable energy projects. The Systems segment provides turn-key photovoltaic solar power systems to investor owned utilities, independent power developers and producers, commercial and industrial companies, and other system owners. This segment provides project development; engineering, procurement, and construction; operating and maintenance; and project finance services.

To review First Solar’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of FSLR (First Solar, Inc.) below with my added notations:


After a strong rally from $25 in April, FSLR has formed a key level at $40 (navy) over the last (4) months, which has been recently been acting as support. In addition, the stock has formed a trendline of resistance (red) starting in the middle of May. These two levels combined had FSLR sandwiched within a common chart pattern known as a descending triangle. At some point, the stock had to break through one of those two levels and earlier this week the $40 support finally broke. The stock should be moving overall lower from here.

The Tale of the Tape: FSLR broke the support of its descending triangle. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up near $40. A break back above the $40 level would negate the forecast for a move lower and should be an opportunity to enter a long trade.
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Cash Cow Says MOO

The “soft” side of commodities generally means things that are grown, not mined, and includes just about every base ingredient in what we eat and drink.

Grains like wheat, corn, and soybeans, along with protein sources like beef, poultry, and pork combine with fruit, cocoa, sugar, and so on to form the basic staples of the world’s food supply.

These commodities enjoy vibrant and liquid futures markets around the world. Strategically speaking, two things will drive soft commodity prices around the world: the growth in population, and the growth in incomes. (more)

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Pipeline-Capacity Squeeze Reroutes Crude Oil

More crude oil is moving around the U.S. on trucks, barges and trains than at any point since the government began keeping records in 1981, as the energy industry devises ways to get around a pipeline-capacity shortage to take petroleum from new wells to refineries.

Getty Images Oil container cars sit at a train depot outside Williston, N.D.

The improvised approach is creating opportunities for transportation companies even as it strains roads and regulators. And it is a precursor to what may be a larger change: the construction of more than $40 billion in oil pipelines now under way or planned for the next few years, according to energy adviser Wood Mackenzie.

"We are in effect re-plumbing the country," says Curt Anastasio, chief executive of NuStar Energy LP, a pipeline company in San Antonio. Oil is "flowing in different directions and from new places."

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Richard Russell – Gold Set To “Catapult” $220, But Buy Silver

from KingWorldNews:
Richard Russell: “I don’t have to tell you that this is a “spooky” stock market. It’s nervous and spooky because it isn’t a normal supply-and-demand market, its a market that’s trying to psychoanalyze Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve. Will they or won’t they “taper?” (Ugh, that disgusting word). And if they taper or not, will it be Summers or Yellen or someone else as the new head of the Federal Reserve? In all my years dealing with the stock market, I can’t remember anything this ridiculous and annoying.
Here below we have a P&F chart of gold, up-to-date as of Friday’s close. Some may call this a “cup and handle” formation and others may call it a modified head-and-shoulders formation. I just call it a catapult formation with a P&F price target of 1620. Of course, gold doesn’t have to surge straight up to 1620, but by hook or crook, one way or another, I believe we’ll see 1620 gold this year — in 2013.
Rick Rule continues @
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Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Martin Pring: Commodity Prices Are About to Explode

I consider technical analysis a subset of the science of behavioral economics (Note: Behavioral Economics is not a subset of economics, it is its own science). That said, there is a lot of technical analysis that is nothing but voodoo analysis, the best stuff is the analysis that can be explained in terms of human behavior at its base. Martin Pring's technical work falls into this behavioral analysis category.

He writes today at Market Watch:
In June, I posted an article on MarketWatch entitled “Are commodity prices about to explode?” The question mark was there because a lot of ingredients were in place for a major rally, but I also pointed out that we really needed confirmation from some of the key averages.  (more)

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Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG)

It is nearly impossible to talk about chart patterns on stocks without eventually discussing the very common head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. An H&S pattern is a reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend. A textbook H&S pattern starts to form when a stock rallies to a point and then pulls back to a particular level (shoulder #1). Next, the stock will rally again, but this time to a higher peak (head) than the previous shoulder. After forming the head, the stock will pull back to the same support as the first shoulder did. Finally, the stock rallies a 3rd time, but not as high as the head (shoulder #2). The level that has been created by all 3 of the pullbacks is simply a support level referred to as the “neckline”. The formation of an H&S pattern warns of a potential reversal of the uptrend into a possible downtrend.

As with any chart pattern, a trader will usually not want to act on the pattern until the stock “confirms” the pattern. Confirmation is the break of the key level that has been created by the pattern. In the case of an H&S, confirmation would be when the stock breaks the neckline (support).

What some traders do not know is that H&S patterns can also form upside-down after a downtrend as well. This pattern would be called an inverse head and shoulders. It would also be considered a reversal pattern, and the neckline would be a resistance rather than a support. To see such a pattern possibly forming, please take a look at the 1-year chart of GG (Goldcorp, Inc.) below with my added notations:


GG peaked at $47 back in September and worked its way lower until June. The stock seems to be forming an inverse H&S (blue) since May. I have noted the head (H) and the shoulders (s) to make the pattern more visible. GG’s neckline resistance is at the $30 level (navy). GG would confirm the pattern by breaking up through the $30 neckline, preferably on an increase in volume, and the stock should move higher from there.

Lastly, keep in mind that simple is usually better. Had I never pointed out this inverse H&S pattern, one would still think this stock is moving higher simply if it broke through the $30 resistance level. In short, whether you noticed the pattern or not, the trade would still be the same: On the break above the key $30 level.

The Tale of the Tape: GG seems to be forming an inverse head & shoulders pattern. A long trade could be entered on a break above the $30 level with a stop placed under that level.
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"Farmers' Almanac" predicts a "bitterly cold" winter

The Farmers' Almanac is using words like "piercing cold," "bitterly cold" and "biting cold" to describe the upcoming winter. And if its predictions are right, the first outdoor Super Bowl in years will be a messy "Storm Bowl."

The 197-year-old publication that hits newsstands Monday predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.

"We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold," said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.  (more)

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Corn, Soy Jump Most in More Than Year as Heat Hurts Crops

Corn jumped the most in 14 months and soybean futures rallied the most since 2011 as hot, dry Midwest weather threatens to erode crop yields in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower. Wheat also advanced.
Temperatures will average as much as 14 degrees Fahrenheit above normal during the next 10 days, with little rain expected in the Midwest, T-Storm Weather LLC said in a note to clients today. July and August will be the driest since 1936 in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. Corn production will be 2.2 percent below the government’s forecast on Aug. 12, while the soybean harvest will be 3 percent less, Professional Farmers of America said Aug. 23, after a tour of crops in seven states last week. (more)

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Watch For A Move In Natural Gas

Natural Gas has had a quiet year in terms of headlines. In 2011 and 2012 it was heavily tracked as it collapsed in price below $2.00 and as it popped hard all the way to $4.00. However, since topping out in mid 2013, natural gas has been on the decline since then as it fell all the way to almost $3.00 just a couple of weeks ago. However, one thing I noticed is that there has been a fairly orderly decline ever since natural gas put in its double top in mid 2013..
The Chart
Below is a daily chart of Natural Gas ($NG_F) futures. As you see, the selloff has been pretty orderly. No major pukes and it has been channeling on the way down. What I’m watching for here is a break above the channel (to possibly play it on the long side) or failure/a hold at the channel (to play it on the short side). The channel might not be the cleanest one I’ve ever seen but it’s there.
(There’s no guarantee I take a position, but it’s going to be interesting to watch to see how this resolves.)
Natural Gas

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Ocwen Financial Corp (NYSE: OCN)

Ocwen Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the servicing and origination of mortgage loans in the United States and internationally. The company’s Servicing segment provides residential and commercial mortgage loan servicing, special servicing, and asset management services to owners of mortgage loans and foreclosed real estate. This segment primarily offers services for subprime residential loans. Its Lending segment is involved in the origination, packaging, and sale of agency mortgage loans into the secondary market. Ocwen Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Please take a look at the 1-year chart of OCN (Ocwen Financial Corporation) below with my added notations:


OCN had traded mostly sideways from October until breaking higher in May. Since March the stock has shown a tendency to always find support on the increments of $5 (blue). For example, in March and April $35 acted as support. Then $40 was support in May and June. There was support at $45 in July, and $50 here recently. So, identifying this trend should help when it comes to identifying when to enter a trade on OCN.

The Tale of the Tape: OCN is currently trading above the $50 level. A long position could be entered at $50 or on a break above $55 with a stop placed below the level of entry. If OCN breaks below $50, another long play could be made at $45.
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Interest Rates Going Up – The Inform Act – New Fed Head

from Financial Survival Network
Professor Laurence Kotlifoff of Boston University joined us to discuss the impact that rising interest rates will have on the US economy. He’s not overly alarmed. We talked about the real rate of inflation and the Thanksgiving Dinner Index. Then we went on to discuss The Inform Act which will require Congress to actually disclose the debts being shifted to future generations by the underfunded entitlement programs, which total in the hundreds of trillions. Also, Professor Kolikoff believes that Janet Yellen is the better choice to head the Fed as opposed to Larry Sommers.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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Monday, August 26, 2013

What I Plan to Do When the Market Crashes

One of the most common questions financial TV hosts ask their guests is whether they expect a pullback or a crash to hit the market. It's an odd question, akin to asking whether they expect summer to occur. Of course summer will occur, and of course stocks will pull back. Since 1928, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC  ) has declined 10% or more from a recent high 89 times, or about once every 11 months, with just a handful of years escaping a 10% dip. Ten-percent pullbacks are almost as common as summers. Twenty-percent market drops have occurred 21 times since 1928, or about as often as presidential elections.

But investing is emotional and the allure of money makes us delusional, so we train ourselves to both think the market doesn't (or shouldn't) crash from time to time, and panic when it does. Few of us are immune to this, as the number of investors who claiming to be contrarians outnumber actual contrarians by orders of magnitude.

When you become resigned to the frequency of market crashes (and our tendency to panic when they hit), having an investment plan based on strict rules makes way more sense than flying by the seat of your pants and hoping you act rationally when everyone else doesn't.

So I put together a plan to guide how I invest when the market crashes next.

Say I have $1,000 cash set aside to invest (in addition to an emergency fund). It's opportunistic money. Here's my roadmap for deploying it:

These rules apply to the portion of my portfolio that invests in broad-based stock index funds, since opportunities in specific companies and sectors vary in unpredictable ways during each crash. (more)
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This IPO is Expected to Soar

We’ve all seen the red, white, and blue hot air balloons, the readily recognizable logo of real estate brokerage giant Re/Max.

Now that the U.S. real estate market has been ballooning itself, Re/Max has decided it’s time to launch an IPO for a listing on the NYSE.

But after 40 years of running a very successful realty agency as a private company, why go public now?

What is behind Re/Max’s decision? Might our portfolios get a lift from its expanding business?
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Cheap emerging markets: Bargain basement or falling knife?

Emerging markets are looking very cheap and the beaten-down prices could be a solid base for future returns, but funds should be prepared for more short-term losses if they take the plunge.

Stocks, bonds and currencies across the developing world are suffering a rout on a scale not seen for years. Asset price valuations look dirt cheap - versus emerging markets' own history and also possibly against their future prospects.

But on the downside, the impending rollback in Fed money printing will almost certainly drive up U.S. bond yields, the higher global borrowing costs seeping through to hit economic growth across the developing world.

And falls in currencies such as Indian rupee and Brazilian real are a worry, eroding foreign investors' returns from local stocks and bonds.

Yet, even as such fears feed the selling momentum, cheap valuations are starting to catch the eye of some investors who are looking at the sector from the perspective of a few months or even a few years down the road. (more)

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Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ: SWKS) Poised for a Double-Digit Rally

The semiconductor industry has been around since the 1960s and has grown to be a nearly $300 billion global business. Basically, semiconductors control the flow of electricity by forming the basis of integrated circuits, transistors, solid state electronics and solar cells, among many other functions. In other words, semiconductors form the base of our modern electronic-driven society.

Over the years, investors have made trillions of dollars investing in this sector. Most everyone is familiar with the major semiconductor companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN).

However, there are dozens of smaller companies that don't have the market share of the top names, but are masters of their particular niches. My stock scanning recently discovered one of these under-the-radar semiconductor companies that is setting up to be a great investment.

The company is Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ: SWKS). This Massachusetts-based semiconductor company was founded in 1962. It provides products for the GPS, broadband, cellular infrastructure, smartphone and tablet markets, among other applications. 

Skyworks has a $4.65 billion market cap, an EPS growth rate of 15% over the past three years, and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) under 10. The company sells primarily to the Asia-Pacific region, with only 6% of sales in the United States.  It beat estimates for its fiscal third quarter, ended June 28, with $436 million in revenue, up 12% from the same quarter last year. Gross margins came in at 43% with expectations of 44%-44.5% for the next quarter. Net income was just under $66 million, which is more than 33% over the same period last year. The company also ramped up its R&D spending, which is key for the future of any tech company.

What I like best about this company is its key relationships with both Samsung and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Skyworks supplies chips for the iPad, iPhone and iPad mini, as well as for Samsung's Galaxy S4 handset.  

In addition, the company is innovative and seeking to benefit from the future "Internet of Things." This next wave in technology is projected to create 50 billion connected devices by 2020. Skyworks is correctly positioned to capitalize on this next revolution. 

Taking a look at the technical picture, SWKS is setting up to be an ideal breakout buy candidate. There is strong triple-bottom support at the $21 level, and resistance exists at $25. Buying on a daily close above $25 makes ideal technical sense.

SWKS Chart
The combination of fundamental growth and breakout potential makes a powerful case for this stock. The diversification and positioning of this company to profit from future trends, as well as its current business, make SWKS a compelling investment.

Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Buy SWKS on a daily close above $25
-- Set stop-loss at $23
-- Set initial price target at $33 for a potential 32% gain in six months
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Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) Stock is Ready to Climb

Technical analysis of stocks depends on interpreting patterns in price charts in order to decide how to play a stock.
One pattern, in particular, is pretty common and profitable.
It’s called an “upward channel.”
An upward channel basically means that the price of a stock is bouncing back and forth between resistance and support levels, while generally trending upwards. Prices don’t always stay exactly within the lines, but they’re still great indicators of when to either go long or short with your investment.
Here’s an example using Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), which demonstrates this pattern beautifully.
A Clear-Cut Case
By following the upward channel trend shown on the chart below, you can get a better idea of when to buy and sell.
The red line represents the resistance level – the price at which the stock finds more selling pressure than buying pressure. When CVX hits that line, it’s probably a good time to short the stock. (more)
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
8:30 am Durable goods orders July   -4.9% 3.9%
9 am Case-Shiller home price index June   -- 12.2% y-o-y
10 am Consumer confidence index Aug.   78.1 80.3
10 am Pending home sales July   -- -0.4%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 8/24
330,000 336,000
8:30 am GDP revision 2Q   2.3% 1.7%
8:30 am Personal income July   0.1% 0.3%
8:30 am Consumer spending July   0.3% 0.5%
8:30 am Core PCE price index July   0.2% 0.2%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Aug.   53.5 52.3
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment index Aug.   80.3 80.0
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Saturday, August 24, 2013

Billionaire Eric Sprott – How Investors Can Make 3,000% In 1 Year!

from King World News
Today billionaire Eric Sprott stunned KWN when he spoke about how investors can make a staggering 3,000% in less than a year. Sprott called this “the greatest” investment opportunity he has ever seen in his life. He also spoke with King World News about the unprecedented events that are taking place in the gold and silver markets. This is the first in a series of interviews with Sprott that will be released today. Below is what Sprott, who is Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, had to say in part I of this remarkable interview series.
Sprott: “I think the most important thing that your listeners (and readers) would want to understand is that we have a bull market in silver stocks — they are up about 50%, we’ve got a bull market in gold stocks — they are up something approaching 30%, we have a bull market in silver — it’s up over 20%.
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Singapore Source – West Is Now Running Out Of Physical Gold

from KingWorldNews:
Eric King: “When the United States closed the gold window in 1971, gold proceeded to go up six-fold in a very short period of time. But during the 1970s, from time-to-time there were threats from the IMF that they were going to sell some gold to stem the rise in the price. We see all of this gold pouring out of the West, and now there is this pressure on India to lease their 200 tons of gold. Does this have a 1970s feel to it to some degree?”
Williams: “There are two major differences now, Eric: The first big difference is that the sellers have been selling gold. And when you have a finite resource, it’s not like dollar bills — you can’t just print more. If you keep selling, one day you are going to have sold it all and you are not going to have any more to sell….
Grant Williams continues @
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Loonie melting in the August heat

As we had thought likely, the Canadian dollar has fallen more than 10% against the greenback since the commodities rebound peak in 2011, and this week, is trading well below the QE trend line with very little technical support between the present level around 95 and its secular support since 2002 at 90 (marked below). Given deflating demand in Canada’s credit-heavy domestic economy, a weaker Loonie will help make exports more competitively priced in the battle with other countries amid contracting global demand.
Since the commodity super demand cycle burst in 2008 with the credit bubble, and the commodity super speculation cycle burst in 2011 with the QE bubble, we think it likely that the Loonie may well breach its secular support and trade below 90 in the coming weeks and months as global growth comes in softer than the many permabulls have forecast.

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Economic Collapse Blog : Britain's Trillion Pound Horror Story

Britain's Trillion Pound Horror Story explains and analyses in plain language the UK's large and ever growing national debt, possible bankruptcy, gigantic and inefficient public sector, and the Conservative-Liberal coalition government's half hearted attempt at trying to reduce the deficit.

Produced and directed by Martin Durkin, all rights reserved for the creators of the show, I do not own any of this material. 
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Is a Relief Rally Due for Bonds and Yield Stocks?

To sustain a panic, it takes a lot of energy, a constant flow of fear and confusion to power the flight instinct.
In the bond market, the panic that has sent interest rates surging has certainly fed on plenty of worry and has already carried on a long time. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has shot from 1.63% in early May to a two-year high above 2.90% this week, scaring tens of billions of investor dollars out of bond funds and raising the price of credit across the economy.
10-year Treasury
Source: Yahoo Finance
The move from historically low rates to something closer to “normal” levels has been driven by better confidence in U.S. economic growth and the related guidance by the Federal Reserve that it intends, before long, to scale back the pace of its bond-buying stimulus plan from the $85 billion monthly clip it’s employed since September.  (more)
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“Bottom Could Fall Out Of The Economy As It Did In The Great Depression”

While most Fed pundits are focusing on the Arvind Krishnamurthy paper referenced earlier discussing the Fed’s “optimal exit” options, another paper, one by Robert Hall of the Hoover Institution and Stanford titled “The Routes into and out of the Zero Lower Bound” may be worth a perusal. The main reason is that while the author admits QE has been largely a failure for the mainstream economy (“the United States and most other advanced countries are closing on five years of flat-out expansionary monetary policy that has failed in all cases to restore normal conditions of employment and output“) in part due to a collapse in collateral values, and in part due to no capex spending as we have warned for the past two years, i.e., “the combination of low investment and low consumption resulted in an extraordinary decline in output demand.”
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U.S. Feedlots Placed 10.4% Fewer Cattle in July as Numbers Fell

U.S. feedlots reduced the number of cattle added to their herds by 10.4 percent in July amid tight animal supplies after the worst drought since the 1930s spurred higher feed costs.

About 1.722 million head of cattle were moved into feedlots last month, down from 1.922 million in July 2012, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Thirteen analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 1.6 percent drop, on average. The feedlot herd totaled about 10 million as of Aug. 1, down 5.9 percent from a year earlier. Analysts expected a 4.2 percent slump. (more)

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Friday, August 23, 2013

McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) Earn a 6.3% Yield From a Dividend Grower

Every Daily Profit reader knows that I’m a huge fan of dividend growth.

I think it’s the best strategy for building wealth and collecting income along the way.

I like dividend growth for its simplicity. All that’s required is finding high quality stocks led by executives who are committed to the shareholders.

Just buy and hold a portfolio of dividend growers for the long term, and watch your portfolio grow.

As the years roll by, rising streams of cash roll in. Because investors are willing to pay a higher price for more income, the share price rises with rising dividend payouts.  (more)

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BNN Top Picks

Jason Donville, President & CEO, Donville Kent Asset Management give his Top Picks; RIFCO Inc. (RFC TSX-V) , Cipher Pharmaceuticals (DND) , Constellation Software (CSU TSX)

click here to view

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Cemex (NYSE: CX) is in Danger of Plunging 50% -- Sell Now

During the past few months, an economic slowdown in China has led to a series of economic headwinds for many of the country's key trading partners. Indeed, for the first time in several years, economists have raised the prospect of a possible recession in Asia and Latin America, joining the ranks of major European economies already mired in a slump.
For Mexico's Cemex (NYSE: CX), the world's third-largest cement maker and producer of concrete, any additional slowdown could cause real distress for its rebounding stock. For investors who have managed to profit from this stock's heady two-year rally, now is the time to book profits as shares could give back those gains if cash flow doesn't improve.
CX Stock Chart
Even before the recent slowdown in China and elsewhere, Cemex was having a tough time. Anemic levels of construction have hurt pricing and demand for cement, leading this company to bleed cash. Cemex had -$639 million in free cash flow in 2012, and is on track to post another -$410 million loss in free cash flow this year. Negative free cash flow is a real problem for any company carrying more than $15 billion in long-term debt.  (more)
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Default: The Student Loan Documentary

Default: the Student Loan Documentary chronicles the stories of borrowers from different backgrounds affected by the student lending industry and their struggles to change the system. No matter when their loans were taken, many borrowers find themselves in a paralyzing predicament of repaying two, three or multiple times the original amount borrowed, with no bankruptcy protection, no cap on fees and penalties and no recourse to the law. The consequences are dire, with stories of borrowers in financial and emotional ruin.

This version was released on PBS late October 2011 and has since gone on to screen at over 142 public broadcasting stations, screened at over 200 college campuses and events, featured in over 200 media outlets including The Nation, Forbes, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal.

We are happy to release the documentary for free online, for anyone who wants to learn more about student debt and for groups who want to organize for change. 
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Gartman on Stocks vs. Gold

If Dennis Gartman had to commit $10,000 right now, this is where he would put it, with CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis and the Futures Now Traders.
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Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) & Denison Mines (NYSEMKT: DNN): 2 Companies With Explosive Growth Potential

Last week, we looked at a few of the success stories — namely Cheniere Energy (NYSEMKT: LNG) and Energy Transfer Equity (NYSE: ETE).

Well, now we’re going to look at couple of companies that have underperformed.

I’m talking about uranium producers Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) and Denison Mines (NYSEMKT: DNN).

Since we unveiled The 10 Must-Own Energy Stocks of 2013 way back in December, Cameco has edged down a little more than 3%, and Denison is down about 1.5%.

That’s not terrible, but we were expecting more — gains at the very least.

Here’s why…(more)

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Hindenburg Omen Is About Marketing, Not Markets

The actual Hindenburg disaster took about 35 seconds from ignition to crash. The eponymous market omen has been triggered multiple times over the last several months, starting at the end of May. Thus far the Hindenburg Omen has yet to trigger a market crash.

Naturally, believers don't regard this as any sort of proof that the technical indicator is somehow flawed. The indicator doesn't come with a specific time frame. It's more along the lines of a vague suggestion that trouble may be afoot. A quick survey of market omens and prognostications reveals that they tend to come without deadlines. That's largely because they are a function of the imagination and salesmanship more than actual markets.

"They would make an indicator based on how many times your neighbor's dog pooped on your yard if they could," says Jonathan Hoenig, founding member of hedge fund Capitalistpig. "The history of markets is that they have a tendency not to crash. The last hundred years you're looking at five or so legitimate crashes."  (more)

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Thursday, August 22, 2013

The Biggest Gold Story No One Is Talking About (Video)

It’s one of the world’s biggest stories right now and it could dramatically affect the price of gold. But, Americans have heard only a little about it.

The decline in India’s currency, the rupee, is nothing short of stunning. Currently at record lows, the rupee has dropped nearly 18% since May. It now takes 63.25 Indian rupees to buy one US dollar.

Causing the plunge is – who else? – Ben Bernanke. Here’s why:

Back on May 22, the Federal Reserve Bank Chairman spoke before the US Congress and hinted that the Fed could start tapering its $85 billion per month bond buying program. That policy, known as “quantitative easing”, helped keep bond prices up and, thus, interest rates down to near-record lows.

Continue Reading at…
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Rob McEwen: Exploration Miners With A Hot Discovery Deliver Remarkable Returns

Legendary gold mining company builder Rob McEwen did an interview with Eric Jackson from Forbes. Rob McEwen is not only know for his excellent track record in building companies, but also for his deep insights in the gold market, the economic and monetary world.
In this article, we highlight the four most interesting questions/answers, published by Forbes and covering both the gold mining sector and gold’s macro economic aspects.
Question: Is the mining industry different today from 20 years ago? There’s been more consolidation. What’s that meant for a junior like you?
Read More @
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Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA)

Comerica Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services primarily in Texas, Arizona, California, Florida, and Michigan. The company operates in three segments: Business Bank, Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. The Business Bank segment offers various products and services, including commercial loans and lines of credit, deposits, cash management, capital market products, international trade finance, letters of credit, foreign exchange management services, and loan syndication services to middle market businesses, multinational corporations, and governmental entities. The Retail Bank segment provides small business banking and personal financial services consisting of consumer lending, consumer deposit gathering, and mortgage loan origination. The Wealth Management segment provides products and services, including fiduciary services, private banking, retirement services, investment management and advisory services, and investment banking and brokerage services. Please take a look at the 1 yr. chart of CMA (Comerica Incorporated) that I have shown below with my added notations: CMA CMA has formed a long channel upward over the last (8) months. A channel is simply formed through the combination of a trend line support that runs parallel to a trend line resistance.  When it comes to a channel any (3) points can start the channel, but it’s the 4th test and beyond that confirm it. You can see that CMA has multiple test points between the channel resistance (blue) and the channel support (red). Following the CMA channel can provide you with both long and short trading opportunities.

The Tale of the Tape: CMA has formed a common chart pattern know as a channel, in this case, an up-channel. A long opportunity could be entered on a pullback to the channel support, which is approaching $40. Short trades could be entered at channel resistance OR if CMA were to break below the channel support.
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Jay Taylor: Turning Hard Times Into Bad Times

click here to listen   Hour 1      Hour 2
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Mercadolibre Inc. (NasdaqGS: MELI) Will Be the Next ‘eBay’

If you’ve followed along with me over the last few months you know I’m a big believer in U.S. technology.

But I’ll go anywhere in search of profits for you.

So if there’s a foreign firm that offers us a chance to diversify our holdings — and make a killing in the process – you can bet that I’ll tell you about it.

In fact, that’s just what I’ve found – a non-U.S. firm that’s actually one of the world’s most-successful e-commerce plays.  (more)

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Oil Prices will continue to Rise

John Manfreda of Wall Street for Main Street Interviewed Josh Young from Young Capital Management. They discussed, his background in Economics, Gold, Oil prices, Cost of Oil production, Energy Infrastructure, Geo-political Unrest, and many more topics.
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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Charles Nenner: US Headed for Recession and It's 'Going to Be Bad'

Technical analyst Charles Nenner didn’t mince words when asked about the United States facing another recession.

"It's going to be bad," Nenner told Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview.

"It's very scary because we didn't have a lot of growth and when this economic expansion is over, we're going to be in trouble," the founder and president of the Charles Nenner Research Center said. (more)

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Short the Market If This Happens

By some measures, stocks just suffered their worst week in 2013. Despite that setback, the S&P 500 is less than 3.2% from its all-time high. Until prices fall further, the weight of the evidence shows stocks are still in a long-term uptrend.

SPY Nears Support
SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) fell for the second week in a row, losing 2.06% last week. Other major market indexes were also down as traders reacted to news that was generally considered to be negative. Among the most important news stories was that a number of companies, including Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), lowered their outlook for the rest of the year.
Even good news was bad news to traders last week. Retail sales exceeded expectations, and the number of initial unemployment claims fell to a six-year low.

The problem with good news is that the Federal Reserve has said they will taper their buying and eventually stop purchasing $85 billion worth of long-term bonds every month when unemployment declines sufficiently. Traders are concerned that the market could fall if the Fed stops buying long-term bonds.

Continued good news about the economy could be the cause of a stock market decline.

For now, SPY seems to be near a level where it should find support. The chart below shows a small head-and-shoulders pattern. The "S" on the left side is the first shoulder in the pattern. This forms when prices pull back after trending higher. The "H," or head, is the new high reached after the initial pullback. The "S" on the right is the second shoulder, which forms after a rally fails to reach a new high. The pattern could be labeled differently, but the general idea is the same for any type of topping pattern.
SPY Chart
Almost all chart patterns use the idea of symmetry to find price targets. The eventual breakout is expected to be equal to the size of the pattern. In this case, the distance between the bottoms of the shoulders and the top of the head is equal to about $3.50. This value is subtracted from the breakout point and a target of $164 is drawn on the chart above.  (more)

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Fluor Corporation (NYSE: FLR)

It is very common for me to discuss Head and Shoulders (H&S) patterns in my articles. An H&S pattern is a reversal pattern that forms after an uptrend. A textbook H&S pattern starts to form when a stock rallies to a point and then pulls back to a particular level (shoulder #1). Next, the stock will rally again, but this time to a higher peak (head) than the previous shoulder. After forming the head, the stock will pull back to the same support as the first shoulder did. Finally, the stock rallies a 3rd time, but not as high as the head (shoulder #2). The level that has been created by all 3 of the pullbacks is simply a support level referred to as the “neckline”. The formation of an H&S pattern warns of a potential reversal of the uptrend into a possible downtrend. As with any chart pattern, a trader will usually not want to act on the pattern until the stock “confirms” the pattern. Confirmation is the break of the key level that has been created by the pattern. In the case of an H&S, confirmation would be when the stock breaks the neckline (support).

H&S patterns can also form upside-down and the pattern would be called an Inverse Head and Shoulders. It too is considered a reversal pattern after a downtrend, but it can also be a continuation pattern in an uptrend. The neckline would be a resistance rather than a support.

To see such an Inverse H&S pattern potentially being formed, please take a look at the 1-year chart of FLR (Flour Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of FLR (Flour Corporation) FLR rallied strongly from November through January and has since formed what appears to be an Inverse H&S (blue). I have noted the head (H) and the shoulders (S) to make the pattern more visible. (If it helps to visualize, imagine this pattern flipped upside down and you would have a regular H&S pattern.) FLR's “neckline” resistance is at the $67 level (red). FLR would confirm the pattern by breaking up through the $67 resistance, and if it does, the stock should be moving higher from there.
Keep in mind that simple is usually better. Had I never pointed out this Inverse H&S pattern, one would still think this stock is moving higher simply if it broke through the $67 resistance level. In short, whether you noticed the pattern or not, the trade would still be the same: On the break above the key $67 level. If that break occurs, the stock would also be hitting a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: FLR seems to have formed an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern. A long trade should be entered on a breakout above the $67 level with a stop placed under that level.
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The Beginning of The Endgame for the U S Dollar?

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