Wednesday, September 30, 2015

A 25% Rally Starting Soon in Coffee : $JO

Coffee prices are on the verge of soaring...
Today, investors hate commodities... and coffee is no exception.
The last time we saw a setup like this, coffee prices rocketed nearly 72% higher in just four months. And over the past decade, these opportunities would have led to 25% average gains in just more than four months.
Coffee isn't a "buy" just yet. But a fantastic opportunity is setting up right now.
Let me explain...(more)

Bitauto Hldg Ltd (NYSE:BITA)

Bitauto Hldg Ltd (NYSE:BITA) could be in the early stages of a technical breakout. A break through today's high on volume could lead this stock to 30-30.51 short-term.

Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK) Ready to Pop?

It is no secret that demand for Apple’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) next-generation iPhone, the iPhone 6s, and its new and larger tablet, the iPad Pro, has been huge. While this good news does not yet seem to have a profound effect on Apple’s share price, 1 bottomed out small cap tech stock that is a are beneficiary of these Apple launches could turn into a big winner.

Under the Radar
The most obvious beneficiary of these new technology gadget releases is Orbotech Ltd. (NASDAQ: ORBK), an under-the-radar stock that is a major player in the technology world. The last sentence buried in the company’s description is the key takeaway: Virtually every electronic device in the world is produced using Orbotech systems. 

The company has the world’s leading market share in the sale of automated optical inspection equipment used in the production of printed circuit boards, flat panel displays, and other micro-electronic components. With the advancement in technology capabilities and the migration to smaller and thinner components, Orbotech’s inspection equipment ensures there are no defects and thus enhances the production yield for manufacturers all over the world, including the producers of the iPhone 6s.

Down over 30% from its June 2015 high due to the recent Asian contagion, Orbotech’s shares trade at a ridiculous valuation. The Street is projecting earnings per share (EPS) to grow from $0.83 in 2014 to $1.98 in 2015 and $2.24 in 2016. Yet, trading in the $15 range, the P/E on 2015 estimated earnings is under 8x, despite the fact that EPS for the first six months of 2015 is already $1.01, a 21% rise over EPS for all of last year! High product demand and profitability should serve as catalysts to drive the low-valuation stock back to the $22 level in the coming months, which would represent a paltry 11 P/E on 2015 earnings per share.

Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN)

Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic analysis in North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and South Africa. The company’s products include sequencing platforms that are based on its SBS technology, which provides researchers with various ranges of applications and the ability to sequence mammalian genomes; and array platforms consist of HiScan and iScan systems, as well as NextSeq 550 system that are array scanners for DNA and RNA analysis applications, including single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, copy number variations analysis, gene expression analysis, and methylation analysis.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN)
ILMN had gotten stuck trading in a sideways range from October through April. Then, in May, the stock finally broke out and ran all the way up to the mid-$240’s. Unfortunately, in July and August, ILMN fell all the way back down to where it started its rally from back in April. During that entire time, the stock created an important level of support at $180 (green). Now that the stock has broken that support, lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: ILMN broke a key level of support at $180. A trader could enter a short position on any rallies up to or near $180 with a stop placed above the level. If the stock were to break back above the $180 level, a long position might be entered instead.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Enviva Partners LP (NYSE:EVA), High-Yield Stock IPO to Watch

Enviva Partners LP (NYSE:EVA) is ready to profit from a unique renewable energy niche. The company produces and sells wood pellets that are used as fuel for electricity generation plants. EVA was also an April IPO. Company management claims that wood pellet sales are a growth business with demand increasing worldwide. Currently most of the demand for pellets is in Europe. Enviva owns and operates five production plants in the Southeastern U.S. The market does not see much value in the business, and the share price is down 40% from the IPO, pushing the yield to over 13%. Enviva has only paid one quarterly distribution, so this is really a watch and wait idea for conservative investors, or a very attractive yield for those who are willing to take on a higher level of risk. The stock is being followed by 4 analysts with price targets between $23.00-$26.00

Wild Ride For Leveraged Biotech ETFs Continues $LABD, $LABU

A week after presidential candidate Hillary Clinton made scathing comments about price gouging by the pharmaceuticals industry, biotechnology stocks and exchange-traded funds remain at the epicenter of what has rapidly become a precariously positioned healthcare sector.
However, some bearish leveraged biotech ETFs, namely the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares LABD 22.07%, are enjoying life in the fast lane.

LABD's Recent Run

After surging more than 30 percent, LABD is up another 15.7 percent at this writing Monday on volume that is already more than double the daily average.
LABD underscores how quickly things can change for triple-leveraged ETFs and why the disclaimer that only active traders planning to hold these funds for just a few days should use these products, not buy-and-hold investors, is so often repeated.

LABD is now up more than 48 percent over the past five trading days, but the ETF entered Monday as Direxion's second-best leveraged ETF on a month-to-date basis, with a gain of 18.6 percent, according to issuer data.

If Disclaimer Awareness Is Minded, More Opportunity May Be Ahead

For traders willing to acknowledge that disclaimer, there appears to be more near-term opportunity with the likes of LABD due to professional investors' long positioning in the healthcare sector and biotech's elevated weights in major U.S. equity benchmarks.
“Friday was the biggest 1 day underperformance of the healthcare sector since April 2009. Currently, Biotech net exposures are still near/at all-time highs since 2010. Following sizable net buying of HC for 9 consecutive months, the pace has slowed materially in Sep. HC net flows have been mixed over the past few days although volumes have remained elevated,” according to a Morgan Stanley note out Monday.
“Although there are some idiosyncratic dynamics driving Biotech, the group was a lead indicator in the growth sell-off in March of 2014. Biotech represents 12 percent of the Nasdaq and 3.68 percent of the S&P 500, which is elevated versus history. It is also worth noting that Biotech vs E&Ps has been correlated to Long/Short 12M Momentum and there is a bit of disconnect there currently.”

Turnover In Healthcare Linked To LABD Action

Morgan Stanley's assessment of increased turnover in the healthcare space is confirmed by the action in LABD. Last week, the ETF's five-day volume was nearly 46 percent above the trailing 20-day average, according to Direxion data. Only four Direxion leveraged ETFs saw bigger increases, including LABD's bullish cousin, the Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bull 3X Shares LABU 22.74%, which saw its five-day volume climb 58 percent above the trailing 20-day average.

Is Yen Setting Up For An Epic Rally?

Over the past few months I’ve been focusing a lot of my attention on the Japanese Yen. As an American investor who trades U.S. stocks (among other asset classes), I think it would be irresponsible of me to ignore a currency with such a high negative correlation with the S&P500. I’ve been pounding the table lately about how obnoxiously high the negative correlation currently is between Yen and U.S. stocks and I still think it’s extremely important that we pay attention. (more)

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE: KORS)

Michael Kors Holdings Limited engages in the design, marketing, distribution, and retailing of branded women’s apparel and accessories, and men’s apparel. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and Licensing. The Retail segment is involved in the sale of women’s apparel; accessories, which include handbags and small leather goods, such as wallets; footwear; and licensed products comprising watches, jewelry, fragrances and beauty, and eyewear. The Wholesale segment sells accessories, such as handbags and small leather goods, footwear, and women’s and men’s apparel to department stores and specialty shops in North America, Europe, and Asia. The Licensing segment licenses its trademarks on products, such as fragrances, beauty, eyewear, leather goods, jewelry, watches, coats, men’s suits, swimwear, furs, and ties, as well as licenses rights to third parties to sell the company’s products in geographical regions, such as the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, Asia (excluding Japan), and Australia.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Kors (NYSE: KORS) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Kors (NYSE: KORS)
KORS has been in a major decline for most of the past year. However, over the past 4 months the stock has created a key price level to watch at $45 (blue). As you can see, $45 was both support back in May, and resistance over the most recent 2 months. A break above that $45 level should mean higher prices for the stock.

The Tale of the Tape: KORS has a key level of resistance at $45. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level. However, if you are bearish on the stock, a short trade could be made on any rallies up to $45.

Monday, September 28, 2015

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM/PB)

Company Profile: JPMorgan Chase & Co. provides various financial services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset Management. The Consumer & Community Banking segment offers deposit and investment products and services to consumers; lending, deposit, and cash management.

Fundamental data:
Trailing P/E: 11.10
Forward P/E: 9.53
EPS: 5.54
Dividend Yield: 2.90%
Beta: 1.22
PEG: 1.40
P/S: 2.46
P/B: 1.03
Profit Margin: 25.05%
Operating Margin: 36.69%
ROA: 0.91%
ROE: 9.70%
Qtrly Earnings Growth: 5.20%

Additional fundamental data:

Recently broke out of a 6-month triangle consolidation
New 52-week High
New all-time high
Buying momentum (RSI) is positive and advancing
Buying volume is neutral
The stock has been outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 since July 2015
Support is at $26.60

The target is $30.50

Note: If JPM/PB moves past the target, we suggest using a 3% trailing stop.

Gold/Platinum Spread Bullish?

This week platinum prices moved to new lows that we haven’t seen for seven years.  Both technical traders and fundamentalists had reason to sell, as we broke through long term support levels and several news stories are working against the metal.  Gold futures meanwhile, continue to trade favorably and outperform the other metal markets.  The divergence between these two metals has created an opportunity in the relative price of each contract.  (more)

Sell Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY)

The biotech sector garnered headlines as it plunged this week, but big pharmaceuticals stocks were hit just as hard. Most have similar patterns to the broader market indices. In other words, they have renewed their downside breaks.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) was one drug stock that bucked the trend in September with a much stronger rebound than its peers following the broader market's breakdown in late August. While the pharmaceutical sector index formed a rising wedge pattern, which is typically bearish, from its late August lows, BMY scooted sharply higher.
The stock even managed to poke its head above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Considering the total breakdown across most sectors of the market, that was rather impressive.
But the good times ended abruptly with a bearish reversal on Sept. 21, the day presidential candidate Hillary Clinton tweeted she would release a plan to tackle rising drug prices the next day.

Still, I believe the real driver for the decline was overall weakness as many market and sector indices broke down.
Regardless, this bearish reversal ended BMY's defiance of its sector's foibles on the charts. The stock could not hold above its major moving averages. As prices hit resistance set by the ragged bottom of the mid-2015 trading range, the bears took over. 
The next downside stop is the $57.50 area, not far below current trading. This marks the November and December lows, as well as the twin highs from January and March of 2014 (not shown on the chart), setting a nice floor for the stock. The rising trendline from November 2012 will also be in this area within a day or so. Recall that the broader market started a multimonth rally in November 2012, so this trendline is rather important.
Should this support level fail to hold -- and given the overall weakness in the market it seems quite likely that it will -- the downside objective would be much lower. A breakdown would target the trendline from the start of the bull market in 2008 in the $50 area. There is also horizontal chart support there from the trading range seen late last year.

Recommended Trade Setup:
-- Sell BMY short at the market price
-- Set stop-loss at $66.50
-- Set initial price target at $57.50 for a potential 7% gain in two weeks
-- Set secondary price target at $50 for a potential 19% gain in six weeks

Will Markets Plunge Below 2009 Low? Tim Wood

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous
8:30 am Personal income Aug.   0.4% 0.4%
8:30 am Consumer spending Aug.
0.3% 0.3%
8:30 am Core inflation Aug.   0.1% 0.1%
10 am Pending home sales Aug.   -- 0.5%
8:30 am Trade in goods deficit Aug.   N/A -$59.1 bln
9 am Case-Shiller home price index July   -- -0.1%
10 am Consumer confidence index Sept.   94.5 101.5
8:15 am ADP employment Sept.   -- 190,000
9:45 am Chicago PMI Sept.   -- 54.5
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Sept. 26   N/A N/A
9:45 am Markit PMI Sept.   -- 53.0
10 am ISM Sept.   51.1% 51.1%
10 am Construction spending Aug.   0.8% 0.7%
TBA Motor vehicle sales Sept.   17.4 mln 17.7 mln
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Sept.
190,000 173,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Sept.   5.1% 5.1%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Sept.   0.1% 0.3%
10 am Factory orders Aug.   N/A 0.4%

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Stock investors haven’t been this bearish in 15 years

Bearishness has reached an extreme not seen at least since the top of the Internet bubble in early 2000.
Yet this is a bullish omen, according to the inverse logic of contrarian analysis: Extreme levels of bearishness indicate that there is a very robust “wall of worry” for the market to climb.  (more)

Outlook for USDCAD and 30-year treasury yields

It has been a number of months since we last looked at the USDCAD relationship and the CBOE 30 Yr Interest Rate, and in the that time there have been some interesting movements in both those charts. So for this week's SIA Equity Leaders Weekly we are going to look back on both of these and see what has happened recently.

United States Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD)

Back on July 15th, 2015 we reported that the currency pair just broke through resistance at the $1.2854 level and was closing in on further resistance at $1.31. Looking at the chart we can see that the USDCAD broke through that level earlier this month and is now wide open for further possible moves up to the $1.40 major resistance and psychological level. If by chance the momentum runs out, support levels are now seen at $1.2727, $1.1870, and lower at $1.1182.
With the continued strength in the US dollar we have seen the continued weakness in most commodity influenced economies as well as specific investments within both the Energy and Materials sectors.
Click on Image to Enlarge
outlook for usdcad

CBOE Interest Rate 30 - YR (TYX.I)

When we last looked at the TYX.I back in mid-May, we discussed the substantial bounce off the 2.442% level up to resistance at around 3.097%. Up until late June, the index continued its upside move all the way up to current resistance at 3.272%. But since then, we have been range bound between the 2.709 support and that 3.272 resistance.
Much of the tug-a-war has to do with the continued debate on the strength of the economy, inflation outlook, and the never ending discussion on possible interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the US. Last weeks decision not to raise rates but comments afterwards that a rate increase this year still remains in the cards added continued uncertainty as to the when, and by how much.
What is interesting is that the SMAX is still at a 10, again showing short term strength across all the asset classes.
Both of these charts continue to give us relevant information that we need to monitor in order to make important decisions for our clients. Further updates can be anticipated.
Click on Image to Enlarge

Volkswagen's $VLKAY 35% Stock Drop Overdone?

Volkswagen, a German auto manufacturer with 212 billion Euros in revenue over the past year, was on a public opinion collusion course this past week after the company was caught cheating on its emissions tests.
The backlash caused Volkswagen's stock price to tumble sharply and its CEO, Martin Winterkorn, announced his resignation.
A look at the stock price chart will show just how material this piece of news was to the wellbeing of the stock. However, as with all major drops in such a short time span, we need to understand if it is warranted, or if investors are simply looking to cash out.

A good example of a time when significant news broke out, investors fled, and then the stock recuperated thereafter, was the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, involving an O&G giant, BP. Following the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig, a sea-floor oil gusher flowed for 87 days, until it was capped on July 15, 2010. BP's stock was slashed in half, but has bounced back quite substantially several months post-incident.
BP BP 0.9% – July 2009 – July 2011
Just goes to show that stock markets are never fully efficient, and it takes time for investors to figure out the real material impact of a major news event. In the case of Volkswagen, we may see a similar bounce. Volkswagen's woes seem to weigh on other auto-related stocks, such as the ones on our list, but they too seem poised to recover.

Is This Why Biotechs $NBI Are Tumbling: "Head And Shoulders Top" Spotted In The NBI

While no chart could have possibly predicted the populist outcry against Martin Skreli's widely publicized, and panned, decision to crassly boost the price of a Toxoplasmosis drug by over 5000% (doing something all other biotech companies have been doing but with all the grace of a bull in a china shop thus prematurely ending the party for everyone) only to promptly undo his decision following a furious public backlash which also resulted in Hillary Clinton proposing a price cap on specialty drugs and unleashing the worst drop for biotech stocks in 2015, now that concerns about a biotech top are in play, the biotech sector just can't seem to catch a bid, and as of moments ago was down over 3% dragging the Nasdaq just barely positive for the day even with the S&P up 0.8%
One reason for the continuied weakness may be that, as Bank of America points out, there are signs the dreaded head and shoulders top has appeared in the Nasdaq Biotech Index. (more)

Gold, Gold Stocks, Shining Opportunity. Mike Swanson

Friday, September 25, 2015

Stocks to Watch: VTL, PLUG, GPRO

Vital Therapies Inc (NASDAQ:VTL) Today's rally confirms that the bounce is still in play and far from over. The stock broke out of a consolidation range as the stock closed up 91c on the day. Thursday’s high was $4.79, which is resistance for Friday’s continuation move. As long as the stock stay above the $4 area, the short-term bullish scenario is still intact.

Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG) surged in the final hour of trading closing slightly higher. The stock continues to show some nice strength in this market. Technical chart shows bullish sign with A/D rising and MACD on top of signal line. Keep it on your watch list going forward.

GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) looks like it is starting to turn back up and the daily technical indicators are giving the first bullish signs. The Stochastic oscillator is registering a bullish signal, as the %K has crossed above the %D and the RSI is rising slowly but hasn’t reached the 35% level. The stock has the following important levels. Resistance at $34 and support at $32.26

Biotech $IBB on Sale, Get Ready to Buy

Stocks opened the week with on-balance gains, but biotechnology stocks fell sharply with iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (ETF) (IBB) plummeting 4.5% on the day. This made health care the only sector of the S&P 500 to show a loss, down 1.4%.

Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton was blamed for the sell-off following a tweet that she is ready to propose a plan that would target “price gouging” by specialty drugmakers.

Despite Monday’s biotech losses, IBB is still up 12.2% year to date.

At the beginning of a correction or bear market, even previously strong sectors — like biotech — are subject to highly volatile days.

The heavy selling in IBB drove the ETF below its 200-day moving average and confirmed an intermediate downtrend by failing to rise above its 50-day moving average.

The breakdown from an ascending wedge will probably end in at least a 20% decline from the July 20 high at $400 for a minimum downside target of $320. IBB could even challenge the low of $284, made on Aug. 24, but that is unlikely.

While IBB looks poised for a deeper decline, the growth rate of the biotech group is spectacular. Traders may want to place good ’til cancelled (GTC) orders to buy their favorite biotech stocks at a 20% discount to their recent highs.

NorthStar Asset Management Group Inc (NYSE: NSAM)

Northstar Asset Management Group Inc. provides asset management and other services in the United States and internationally. It also offers securitization transaction services. The company is based in New York, New York. Northstar Asset Management Group Inc. operates independently of NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. as of June 30, 2014.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Gulfport (NYSE: NSAM) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Gulfport (NYSE: NSAM)
After rallying from October into March, NSAM consistently declined over next five of months. Since bottoming in August, the stock has been consolidating within a sideways range. While in that sideways move, the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
NSAM’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $17.50 (red), which has also been a prior support, and a $16 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: NSAM is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $16 or on a breakout above $17.50. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $16.

Breakdown in Rockwell $ROK Stock Could Make Traders 20%

Rockwell Automation (ROK) — This manufacturer and developer of equipment, software and engineering solutions for factories and process automation has had a steady record of growth. While analysts forecast earnings will increase 7.5% in fiscal 2015 (ended in September) to $6.63 per share, they estimate revenue will decline 3.5% to $6.4 billion. The company is scheduled to report in mid-November.

Rockwell Automation has seen a rise in factory utilization rates, but this has been offset by currency difficulties and problems with the European economy. Spending on new product development could also limit profits.

And S&P Capital IQ says that although demand for automation products is likely to increase over the next 12 months, its analysts feel this is already discounted into the share price.

The chart is bearish with a death cross at about $115, strong negative volume building, a sell signal from the internal MACD indicator and a sharp intermediate downtrend line.

It is however possible that ROK stock could have a recovery bounce to the intermediate resistance line at $106. Therefore, my recommendation is to either sell shares short on a rally to $106 or on a break below $102. My downside target for this short sale is $85 for a potential gain of 17% to 20% depending on your entry point.

As with all short sales, check with your broker for any restrictions. And be aware that if you hold shares short through the ex-dividend date in mid-November you will have to pay the owner the 65 cents per share due.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

The Forecaster Martin Armstrong Documentary, Watch Online Free

MARTIN ARMSTRONG, once a US based trillion dollar financial advisor, developed a computer model based on the number pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy. In the early 80s he established his financial forecasting and advising company Princeton Economics. His forecasts were in great demand worldwide. As Armstrong's recognition grew, prominent New York bankers invited him to join "the club" to aid them in market manipulation. Martin repeatedly refused. Later that same year (1999) the FBI stormed his offices confiscating his computer model and accusing him of a 3 billion dollar Ponzi scheme. Was it an attempt to silence him and to prevent him from initiating a public discourse on the real Ponzi Scheme of debts that the world has been building up for decades? Armstrong predicts that a sovereign debt crisis will start to unfold on a global level after October 1, 2015 - a major pi turning point that his computer model forecasted many years ago.

PLEASE RECOMMEND with Facebook, Twitter, and G+1

Nine Weak Downtrending Stocks in the S&P500: JOY, DNR, AVP, X, WYNN, ATI, MNK, FCX, GMCR

Here’s the list of weak stocks downtrending in the S&P 500:

These stocks continue to show relative weakness and downtrends as defined by lower price lows with lower price highs; we also note the bearish orientation of the moving averages.
In no particular order, we note the weakness of the following:
Joy Global (JOY)
Denbury (DNR)
Avon Products (AVP)
US Steel (X)
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Allegheny (ATI)
Mallinckrodt (MNK)
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
Keurig Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
The strategy would be to trade (short-sell) retracements (like bear flags) in these stocks as the trends weaken.

Gulfport Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: GPOR)

Gulfport Energy Corporation engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, and production of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and crude oil in the United States. The company’s principal properties are located in the Utica Shale primarily in Eastern Ohio; Louisiana Gulf Coast in the West Cote Blanche Bay; and Hackberry fields. It also has interests in the Niobrara Formation of Northwestern Colorado; Bakken Formation; entities that operate in Southeast Asia, including the Phu Horm gas field in Thailand; and Alberta oil sands located in Canada. As of December 31, 2014, the company had 933.6 Bcfe of proved reserves, as well as undeveloped reserves totaled 3,778 thousands of barrels oil, 373,840 millions of cubic feet natural gas, and 13,889 thousands of barrels of NGLs.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Gulfport (NASDAQ: GPOR) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Gulfport (NASDAQ: GPOR)
After its April through July decline, GPOR started trading sideways over the next couple of months. While in that sideways move, the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
GPOR’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $36 (red), and an $32 support (green), which it barely held yesterday. At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: GPOR is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $32 or on a breakout above $36. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $32.

Youku Tudou Inc (NYSE: YOKU)

Youku Tudou Inc. operates as an Internet television company in the People’s Republic of China. Its Internet television platform enables users to search, view, and share video content across various devices. The company’s services for users comprise online video content library consisting primarily of professionally produced content, including television serial dramas, movies, current event reports, variety shows, and music videos. It also provides guided user-generated content through Youku Paike and Youku Niuren programs; and produces a range of content, such as sponsored Web serial dramas, reality shows, interviews, and variety shows under the Youku Originals brand, as well as on Tudou platform.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Youku (NYSE: YOKU) below with added notations:
1-year chart of Youku (NYSE: YOKU)
YOKU skyrocketed back in the spring, but after a persistent selloff in June, July and August, the stock started trading sideways over the past month. While in the sideways move, the stock has formed a key pair of price levels that are worth watching. YOKU has a current resistance at $18 (red), which has been both prior support and resistance earlier in the year, and a $16 support (green) that has also been both support and resistance in the past. At some point one of those levels will have to break.

The Tale of the Tape: YOKU is trading inside a trading range. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $16 or on a breakout above $18. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $16.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Stocks To Watch: CDTI, DD, AEZS, GPRO

Strong breakout of resistance on volume confirmation. The heavy buying makes this an interesting situation and one worth watching on Wednesday. The technical chart shows the stock is in a short term bull market rally with MACD on top of signal line and %K line on top of %D line. This momentum could push this stock much higher from here. Next resistance is now seen around $2.50. VW scandal could benefit this company. CDTi's Chief Technology Officer will participate at the 6th Annual Global Congress of Catalysis 2015 (GCC-2015) being held September 24th to 26th in Xi'an, China.

E I Du Pont De Nemours And Co (NYSE:DD) looks like it may have found a bottom already. The daily technical indicators are looking better for the stock with MACD indicator above its sell signal line, %K line on top of %D line and RSI indicator moving up from the 30 level. A close above $49.51 will impart bullishness and will help the stock move to the $52 area.

AEterna Zentaris Inc. (NASDAQ:AEZS) I grabbed the pullback under 8c and took a long position. If it can holds this support area we might see another leg up.

GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) MACD is showing signs of bottoming. Go long on the break of Tuesday’s high at 33.75.

A Second Chance to Buy China

If you missed the Chinese stock market rally last month, you now have another chance to profit...
Around four weeks ago, I told you why I was buying China. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (the "SSEC") had fallen double digits and was sitting on a significant support line.
There was also "positive divergence" on the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) momentum indicator. In other words, as the index was falling to lower lows, the MACD indicator was making higher lows. So the SSEC looked poised to bounce. (more)

Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR)

Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets home appliances and related products worldwide. The company’s principal products include laundry appliances, refrigerators and freezers, cooking appliances, dishwashers, mixers, and other portable household appliances. It also produces hermetic compressors for refrigeration systems. The company markets and distributes its products under various brand names, such as Whirlpool, Maytag, KitchenAid, Jenn-Air, Amana, Roper, Admiral, Affresh, Gladiator, Inglis, Estate, Acros, Supermatic, Consul, Brastemp, Indesit, Bauknecht, Ignis, Laden, Hotpoint, and Privileg. It sells its products to retailers, distributors, dealers, builders, and other manufacturers.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Whirlpool (NYSE: WHR)
WHR has been trending lower since the beginning of March. Over the most recent 3 months the stock has repeatedly found support around $160 (green). Now that the stock appears to be falling back down to that support level again, traders might be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $160 support level breaks, lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: WHR has an important level of support at $160. Traders could enter a long position at $160 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.

Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. (NYSE: HOS)

Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates offshore supply vessels (OSVs) and multi-purpose support vessels (MPSVs) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Latin America, and internationally. It provides marine transportation, subsea installation, and accommodation support services to exploration and production, oilfield service, offshore construction, and U.S. military customers. The company owns and operates a fleet of U.S.-flagged OSVs and MPSVs that support the deep-well, deepwater, and ultra-deepwater exploration, development, production, construction, installation, inspection, repair, maintenance, well-stimulation, and other enhanced oil recovery activities of the offshore oil and gas industry. It also operates a shore-base support facility located in Port Fourchon, Louisiana, as well as provides vessel management services, such as crewing, daily operational management, and maintenance activities for other vessels owners.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Hornbeck (NYSE: HOS) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Hornbeck (NYSE: HOS)
HOS has formed a key support level at $16 (green) over the past two months. In addition, the stock is declining against a short-term, down trending resistance level (red). These two levels combined had HOS stuck within a common chart pattern known as a descending triangle. Eventually, the stock will have to break one of those two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: HOS is sitting at its triangle support. A short trade could be made on a break of support or on a rally up to resistance. A long trade could be made at support or on a break through the triangle resistance.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Tableau Software Inc (NYSE: DATA)

Tableau Software, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides business analytics software products in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers Tableau Desktop, a self-service analytics environment that empowers people to access and analyze data independently; and Tableau Server, a business intelligence platform with data management, scalability, and security to foster the sharing of data, as well as to improve the dissemination of information in an organization and promote enhanced decision-making. It also offers Tableau Online, a cloud-based hosted version of Tableau Server; and Tableau Public, a cloud-based platform that allows bloggers, journalists, researchers, and government workers to visualize public data on their Websites.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Tableau (NYSE: DATA) with the added notations:
1-year chart of Tableau (NYSE: DATA)
DATA rallied strongly higher from its October low. Now that the stock has declined lower, the most recent month has found DATA hitting support at $90 (green). That same $90 support was also support earlier in the year, and it was also a resistance back in December. Now that the stock appears to be testing that support level again, traders should be able to expect some sort of bounce. However, if the $90 support were to break, lower prices should follow.

The Tale of the Tape: DATA has a key level of support at $90. A trader could enter a long position at $90 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support a short position could be entered instead.

Have Soybeans Really Bottomed Out?

Soybeans may have made significant lows, but it doesn’t mean there will be a big rally due to any fundamental information that we know now. As we look at what may happen at harvest and into 2016, it is very possible that soybeans can trade back down to the lows made when traders sold futures as soon as the September 11th WASDE Report was released.

On September 11th the low on the November 2015 soybean contract was $8.53 ¼. January 2016 was $8.57, March 2016 was $8.59 ¾ and July 2016 was $8.66 ½.  Unfortunately and unlike corn, there is not enough price increase to justify carrying, or storing soybeans from harvest into 2016. Unless there is a way to find free storage, or the spreads go to carry, it will cost to store beans after harvest.  (more)

Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC)

Norfolk Southern Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods. As of December 31, 2014, it operated approximately 20,000 miles of road in 22 states and the District of Columbia. The company also operates scheduled passenger trains; transports overseas freight through various Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports; and provides logistics services. In addition, it provides bimodal truckload transportation services primarily utilizing RoadRailer trailers, a hybrid technology that facilitates over-the-road and on-the-rail transportation in the eastern United States, as well as in Ontario and Quebec through a network of terminals.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Norfolk (NYSE: NSC) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Norfolk (NYSE: NSC)
NSC has been on a steady downhill slide over the past 10 months. During the last 2 months of the decline, and recent rally, NSC created a clear level of resistance at $80 (green), which had also been support prior. A break above that $80 level should mean higher prices for the stock, and yesterday NSC broke that level.

The Tale of the Tape: NSC broke through its key level of resistance at $80. A long trade could be entered on a pull back down to that level. However, a break back below $80 could negate the forecast for a higher move and would be an opportunity to get short the stock.

Ross Clark – Central Banks. James Corbett – China. Robert Campbell – Real Estate Bubbles

Monday, September 21, 2015

Stocks To Watch: VRNG, PLUG, TTPH, VTL, JUNO

I've been stating for days that the Vringo, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRNG) stock was trying to bottom as it had nice positive divergence developing, now stock is near to cross the $.675 level, which could give a strong boost for run to $.82 (200EMA) Keep an eye on stock. I'm Bullish on VRNG.

Plug Power Inc (NASDAQ:PLUG) had a strong breakout Friday with a pop of 11 cents to 1.89 or 6% on 5.5 million shares, the biggest volume in a couple of weeks. Friday's strength could lead to more upside.

Tetraphase Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:TTPH) was a nice winner for my readers and twitter followers. I brought this stock to your attention last week sub-10 and on Friday it closed at $12.54 on high volume. As i mentioned on twitter I took some profits at $12 but i will try to re-enter again.

Vital Therapies Inc (NASDAQ:VTL) shares successfully broke the $4 resistance level Friday on high volumes. This is a very bullish development. Short-term technical indicators are looking bullish and the MACD on the daily chart recently produced a new buy signal. If the stock can break the 13-day EMA at 4.17 next week, we should see a strong follow through move.

Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:JUNO) has been on a nice uptrend and could be ready to breakout after strong volume in the last trading session. I wouldn't be surprised to see this stock trade back to $45 or better in the short term.

S&P500 Index Update – End Run Smash Looks Imminent

by Clive Maund
Gold Seek

The market didn’t waste any time “getting on with it” yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating “end run around the line” smash – if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner.
A few days back we were a little too accommodating in adjusting the upper boundary of the Pennant shown on the 3-month chart below when the index pushed out of the top of it. We shouldn’t have and on this chart we are going back to our original Pennant boundaries, which is important as it enables us to define where the support is at the apex of the Pennant. As you will recall the upside breakout from the Pennant, on the basis of its original boundaries, was regarded with deep suspicion, and it appears to have been the product of manipulation – Fed buying to “paint the tape”, especially as there was no such breakout in other markets like the London FTSE and Tokyo Nikkei, where a parallel Pennant had formed. If so then they may soon end up with egg on their faces.
Continue Reading at…

US Dollar ETFs $UUP Really Need Interest Rates To Rise This Year

The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP , the U.S. Dollar Index tracking exchange traded funds, and the actively managed WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund USDU  are up 3.2 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, year-to-date.
Those gains have been fueled in large part by market participants baking into the dollar an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, something the central bank eschewed at the conclusion of its September meeting Thursday.

Post-Meeting Reactions

The immediate reaction was forgettable for the greenback and ETFs such as UUP and USDU. However, on Friday the dollar ETFs are trading higher, led by a gain of half a percent at this writing for UUP.
What that says is that the door is still open to a rate hike sometime this year, either at the Fed's October or December meetings. More good news for UUP and USDU: Expectations for a 2015 rate hike were not significantly damaged by the Fed's decision Thursday to pass on such action this month.

“The fact is that the interest rate market’s implied probability for a rate hike in 2015 did not shift greatly. What has occurred was the removal of the embedded risk premium for a hike at yesterday’s Fed meeting, and a small reduction from the October meeting due to a number of professionals expecting the Fed to make some sort of pre-commitment to a hike at that meeting,” said Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous in a note out Friday.

What Expectations Remain?

With 2015 rate hike expectations barely lower Friday than they were Thursday, perhaps that is a sign investors were too hasty in departing the greenback. For example, UUP has bled almost $362 million in assets over the past 90 days, according to issuer data. Only one PowerShares ETF has lost more money over that period.
Since the start of the current quarter, USDU has lost a more modest $16.2 million. Still, that number is confounding when considering all the negative headlines regarding emerging markets currencies investors have been treated. USDU, by way of being actively managed, can short emerging currencies. For example, over 11 percent of the ETF's weight is short the sagging Mexican peso and Brazilian real.

Near-Term Catalysts

In the simplest of terms, the most important near-term upside catalyst for UUP and USDU is market participants reconfiguring expectations that a rate hike is going to happen this year.
“As a result, the decline in the US dollar is mostly a function of the decision not to hike at the September meeting, and a marginal decline in the probability of a move at the October meeting. The key risk in the near-term remaining for US dollar longs is that the market removes the implied probability – or risk premium –of an interest rate hike in 2015.
"At this point there has not been a major shift to that view as the unconditional probability of a move in December was effectively unchanged after yesterday’s meeting,” added Azous.

US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period ACTUAL forecast previous
10 am Existing home sales Aug.   5.52 mln  5.59 mln
9 am FHFA home price index July   -- 0.2%
9:45 am Markit PMI flash reading Sept.   -- 53.0
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims Sept. 19   275,000 264,00
8:30 am Durable goods orders Aug.   -1.3% 2.2%
10 am New home sales Aug.   515,000 507,000
8:30 am GDP revision 2Q
3.7% 3.7%
10 am Consumer sentiment Sept.   87.0 85.7

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Correction in Equities, Rebound Coming in Mining Stocks – Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter

When Gold Escapes the Trap, You Wants to Own These Seven Companies

by JT Long
The Gold Report

When is gold more than a commodity? When it is recognized as the last safe haven in a volatile world. In this interview with The Gold Report, Casey Research Senior Analyst Louis James warns that “there are so many fragile points around the global economy today any jolt can cause follow-on crashes, collapses—all the volatility we have come to know and love since 2008.” To prepare for the inevitable, James shares the seven advanced junior names that he thinks could move up fast when the hard reality of gold’s value starts hitting the bottom line.
The Gold Report: You recently observed in your newsletter that gold has been acting more like a commodity, like pork bellies, than like a currency. That misclassification has discounted the value of precious metals, depressing the price. Why do you think that is?
Louis James: Commodities, as a group, tend to move together. We see it with copper and other industrial metals, and we see it in other commodities, including pork bellies. The commodities index is not just an average line. It actually is fairly representative of the sector as a whole. That matters right now because the trend for commodities is downward, plus the fundamentals are. . .scary.
Continue Reading at…

Time Bomb under Canada’s Housing Bubble

The Bank of Canada has been fretting about the ballooning debt of Canadian households. Last year, it repeatedly called it a risk to “financial stability,” perhaps in preparation for raising its benchmark interest rate. Then Canada’s economy tanked.
In July, when the freaked-out Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate for the second time this year, it admitted that the rate cut comes at the price of “financial stability risks” which “remain elevated.” Governor Stephen Poloz added: “Of particular note are the vulnerabilities associated with household debt and rising housing prices.”
These rate cuts didn’t do much to support Canada’s resource economy that has been spiraling down in the wake of the commodities rout. But they made up for it by inflating the housing bubble even further.
The Teranet–National Bank house price index, released September 14, hit new records every month this year. In August, it was up 5.4% year-over-year. Note how the index has soared since the peak of the prior housing bubble that ended with the Financial Crisis:
The index masks what Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist at NBF’s Economics and Strategy, calls the “dichotomy” of Canada’s housing market. In some cities, price increases are cooling, year over year: Victoria +3.2%, Edmonton +0.8%, Calgary +0.7%. In other cities, prices are actually falling year-over-year: Winnipeg -0.4%, Ottawa-Gatineau -0.4%, Montreal -0,5%, Quebec City -0.7%, and Halifax -1.4%.
But they’re sizzling in Vancouver +9.7%, Hamilton +8.8%, and Toronto +8.7%. And prices for non-condo homes in Vancouver and Toronto – the two cities account for 54.1% of the index – jumped over 10%!

On cue, total consumer debt rose 4.9% year-over-year in July to C$1.86 trillion. A trend that has been picking up speed recently: on a monthly basis, consumer debt jumped in July at an annualized rate of 5.4%. Mortgage debt – over two-thirds of total consumer debt – soared at an annualized rate of 6.9%.
Yet disposable incomes only inched up 0.8% in the second quarter, Statistics Canada reported on September 11. So the household-debt-to-disposable-income ratio, a measure of household leverage, hit a record 164.6%, the largest jump in the ratio since 2011:
“Fortunately, there’s little need to fret about households’ ability to carry all that debt,” BMO Capital Markets senior economist Benjamin Reitzes wrote in a note. Interest rates are super-low, and thus the burden of carrying all this debt still manageable. But even he conceded that “further increases would start to ramp up our level of concern.”
The ratio is an average. There are many Canadian households with little or no debt. But then there are many other households whose incomes have not fared well, and who have piled on debt to buy a modest home in one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world.
And they’re not just borrowing to buy homes. In its consumer credit report for the second quarter, released September 15, Equifax Canada reported that auto-loan balances increased by 3.9% year-over-year. And installment-loan balances (credit cards, etc.) jumped 8.0%.
Consumers are beginning to stretch.
But no problem. Despite increased debt loads, the 90-day-plus delinquency rate is down 1.6% and bankruptcies are down 9.4%, Equifax reported, as they should be, given the increasingly easy and cheap credit sloshing through the land: borrowers aren’t going to fall behind if they keep getting new money. It’s when they can’t get anymore new money….
But suddenly there are problems: rising delinquencies in “some of the sub-segments” of the population, the report warned.
We’re starting to see the impact of low oil prices in the West as these prices are forcing a new reality on Alberta and Saskatchewan in particular. In these two provinces the debt levels are stable, but the delinquency rate has started to increase.
On a demographic basis, the 90+ day delinquency rate for Canadians aged 65+ rose for the first time since 2010. The rate increased by 2.4% this quarter versus a decrease of 5.1% in the previous quarter.
So the oil patch is experiencing rising delinquencies. And across Canada, for the first time since the Financial Crisis: seniors!
Equifax promised to “monitor this trend closely in the coming quarters.”
This ballooning household debt “puts Canadian consumers in a precarious situation,” Scott Hannah, CEO of the non-profit Credit Counselling Society, told the Toronto Star. “If they’re struggling to manage their increasing debt obligations now, a sudden change in external factors — like a rise in interest rates or the loss of a job — will leave many Canadians in greater financial difficulty.”
It’s for a reason that the Bank of Canada called this enormous amount of household debt a “financial stability risk.” The fact that delinquencies have started to rise in the first subsectors – despite historically low interest rates and super-easy money – is the audible ticking of a time bomb under one of the most overpriced housing markets in the world.
Spiking numbers of “half-empty” office buildings? “Canada is also in the midst of an ill-timed supply surge that caused vacancy rates to rise, warns a new report. It paints a picture of an epic office boom turned into an epic office glut.

Friday, September 18, 2015

3 Oil Stocks to Buy for a Sudden Rebound: EOG, XOM, SLB

EOG Resources (EOG)

Source: OptionsAnalytix
One of the best-looking names among big-cap energy stocks is EOG Resources (EOG). Its bottoming process is the most developed of the bunch making it one of the first oil stocks to reclaim the higher ground.
With yesterday’s oil pop, EOG stock was able to vault back above the pivotal 50-day moving average — a level it hasn’t seen since April. The sideways base formed prior to this week’s breakout illustrates the bears’ impotence. Despite multiple attempts to take EOG stock lower in recent weeks, each and every selling raid was rebuffed rapidly by buyers.
While the bottoming attempt in EOG may yet experience a few setbacks, now is as good a time as any to dip your toes in the water.
Buy the Jan $80 calls for $6.30.  (more)


ICON Public Limited Company, a contract research organization, provides outsourced development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries in Ireland, rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally. It develops, manages, and analyzes programs that support various stages of the clinical development process from compound selection to Phase I-IV clinical studies. The company also offers clinical trials management, biometric activities, consulting, imaging, contract staffing, informatics, and laboratory services.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of ICON (NASDAQ: ICLR) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ICON (NASDAQ: ICLR)
ICLR has formed a clear resistance at $80 (red) over the last month, and that $80 level has also been support prior. In addition, the stock has been climbing a trend line of support (green) since the end of August. These two levels combined have ICLR stuck within a common chart pattern known as an ascending triangle. Eventually, the stock will have to break one of those levels.

The Tale of the Tape: ICLR is trading within an ascending triangle. A long trade could be made at the trendline support or on a break above $80. A break below trendline would be an opportunity to enter a short trade.

Housing Bubbles Cause Inaccurate Stats. Ross Kay – September 15, 2015

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Petrobras PBR Hits Record Production Amid Brazil Crisis; Stock Climbs More Than 7%

  • Shares of Petroleo Brasileiro SA - Petrobras (ADR) PBR  rose more than 7 percent on Wednesday trading.
  • The surge was triggered by the announcement that the company had hit record production in August.
  • Most of the oil and gas was produced in Brazil; however, the company also extracted resources from the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Brazil’s state-controlled Petrobras said, on Wednesday, that its average production of oil and natural gas (both in Brazil and overseas) had reached 2.88 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in August.
    This compares to the 2.8 million boed produced on average in July and implies a 3.1 percent surge, month-over-month.
    Moreover, the company assured, this is a new output record, surpassing the last high of 2.86 million boed set in December 2014. Year-over-year, production saw a 4.5 percent boost – from the 2.76 million boed registered in August 2014.

    Corruption Scandal

    The news came as a surprise to many investors and analysts, as the company is going through a massive corruption scandal that involves high ranked politicians and public servants.
    Despite the turbulence, the company explained that it had managed to hit a new record on the back of the commencement of operation of the FPSO Cidade de ItaguaĆ­ on July 31. This platform is anchored in Iracema Norte, in the northwest section of the Lula field, and can process 150 thousand barrels of oil and 8 million cubic meters of gas each day.

    Brazil's Production Numbers

    In Brazil, the company disclosed production of 2.69 million boed, meaning that most of the oil and gas came from within the country. Moreover, if the company’s partners’ production is taken into account, Petrobras’ total production in the country reached 3.01 boed.

    Stocks To Watch: BBRY, AMDA, BV, JUNO, ATHX

    BlackBerry Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) displayed some impressive relative strength with a 2.27% gain. The area comprehended between 7.70 and 7.85 represents a strong resistance. The power of today's move suggests an upward breakout that could impulse the stock to test the July highs at 8.16. Indicators are turning up. The RSI crossed above 50 and +DI crossed above -DI today indicating renewed buying pressure.

    Amedica Corporation (NASDAQ:AMDA) has had a rough time over the past weeks but today’s bounce could be the first move to recovery. I'm using 51c as resistance for this upside move. If the stock can break through this level, we should see a reversal of this down trend. On watch.

    Bazaarvoice Inc (NASDAQ:BV) broke and closed above its 20-day exp moving average with high volume. Short-term technical indicators are improving and the MACD rising. If the stock can break Wednesday’s high, we should see a strong follow through move. BV will move very quickly, so keep a very close eye on the stock.

    Juno Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:JUNO) Break out watch over $42.08 with volume. Technicals look Bullish to me.

    If Athersys, Inc. (NASDAQ:ATHX) can close above $1.33 this week, there should be some nice momentum in the stock. The RSI analysis is signaling a bullish outlook which can be further confirming in MACD and ADX charts.