Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Turk – 15,000 Tons Of Western Central Bank Gold Is Gone

from KingWorldNews:

Today James Turk once again shocked King World News when he stated, “… in 1997 over (a stunning) 2,000 tons of gold moved out of Great Britain.” Turk added, “Now since Great Britain is not a gold miner, we know that gold had to come out of the Bank of England (where they store other countries gold), and it probably went into Zurich (Switzerland) for what’s called ‘leasing’ but I use the word ‘lending,’ or lending into the market.”
Turk added this stunning estimate, “At the time I had concluded that it was about 15,000 tons of gold which had actually been put into the market out of central bank vaults. This is approximately half of what central banks reported to own at the time.”
James Turk continues @ KingWorldNews.com

9 Financial Rules You Should Never Forget

The Motley Fool's mission is to help the world invest, better. To do my part, here are nine things I think investors should never forget.

1. Nine out of 10 people in finance don't have your best interest at heart.
Wall Street is a magnet for some of the nation's smartest students hailing from the best universities. And let me tell you: Few of them go into finance because they want to help the world allocate capital efficiently. They do it because they want to get rich.

And the fastest and most reliable way to get rich on Wall Street isn't to become the next Warren Buffett. It's to find people gullible enough to pay outrageous fees and commissions on products that rarely beat a basic index fund.

IBM estimates that global money managers overcharge investors by $300 billion a year for failing to deliver returns above a benchmark index. If you think the regret and shame these managers feel is stronger than the joy they get from driving their Lexus to their beachfront home, I have a bridge -- and a CDO -- to sell you.

2. Don't try to predict the future.
A little more than a decade ago:
  • Greece was strong.
  • Russia was bankrupt.
  • Oil cost $13 a barrel.
  • AOL dominated the Internet.
  • Smart economists thought the government would pay off the national debt by 2009.
  • Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) was a joke.
  • General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) was at an all-time high.
  • Mark Zuckerberg was in middle school.
  • Y2K was a major worry.
  • Fortune named Enron one of America's "most admired corporations."
The coming decade will be filled with just as many shifts. Learning to deal with them is more important than being able to predict them. Because no one -- no one -- will be able to predict them all.  (more)

Profit From This Surprising Commodity With an Investment You've Never Heard Of

To the surprise of almost everyone, natural gas has turned out to be the fastest rising commodity of 2012. Just six months ago, many assumed that gas would struggle to move higher for years to come, thanks to a production glut that overwhelmed demand.
Throw that playbook out the window.
Natural Gas Chart
Natural gas supply has been throttled back in a meaningful way, and I recently opined on our sister site, StreetAuthority.com, that gas could eventually move past $4.50 per MCF (thousand cubic feet).

Yet here's the tricky part: Though the fundamentals for gas imply yet higher prices ahead, the technical picture is much less robust. Simply put, this is a commodity that has been forced higher very quickly as a result of trading dynamics -- most notably short-covering by bearish traders. And there's a good chance that traders will look to lock in gains at current levels, and selling pressures will dominate in coming weeks and months -- before the bright fundamental long-term picture takes hold anew.  (more)

Is Santa Coming Early for Gold & Gold Mining Stocks?

If you own physical gold, gold mining stocks or plan on buying anything related to precious metals before year end, you are likely going to get excited because of what my analysis and outlook shows.
Since gold topped abruptly a year ago (Sept 2011) with a massive wave of selling which sent the price of gold from $1920 down to $1535, technical analysts knew that type of damage which had be done to the chart pattern could take a year or more to stabilize before gold would be able to continue higher.
Fast forwarding twelve months to today (Oct 2012). You can see that gold looks to have stabilized and is building a basing pattern (launch pad) for another major rally. The charts illustrated below show my big picture analysis, thoughts and investment idea.

Weekly Spot Gold Chart:

The weekly chart can be a very powerful tool for understanding the overall trend. This chart clearly shows the last major correction and basing pattern in gold back in 2008 – 2009. Right now gold looks to be forming a very similar pattern.
Keep in mind this is a weekly chart and if you compare the 2009 basing pattern to where we are today I still feel it could take 3 – 6 months before gold truly breaks out to the upside and kicks into high gear. The point of this chart is to provide a rough guide for what to expect in the coming weeks and months.
Gold Stock Investing

Weekly Chart of Junior Gold Miner Stocks:

If you follow gold closely then you likely already know junior gold mining stocks can lead the price of gold up to two weeks. Meaning gold mining stocks which you can track by looking at GDX and GDXJ exchange traded funds will form strong bullish chart patterns and generally start moving up in price before physical gold.
The chart below shows the junior gold miner ETF with a VERY BULLISH chart and volume pattern. Remember that gold stocks are a leveraged play on gold in most cases. For example, if gold moves up 1% we typically see GDX and GDXJ move 2-4%. Because they act as a leveraged play on physical gold smart money and big institutions start accumulating these investments in anticipation of gold rising.
GDXJ has formed a tight bull flag and the volume levels confirm there is big money moving into these investments. The first price target on GDXJ using technical analysis for a measured move points to the $32 area. Looking forward twelve months with gold trading above $2000 we could see this fund more than double in value.
Bonus: while most traders focus on GDX gold miner fund, I prefer the GDXJ fund because its almost identical in price performance BUT it pays you a 5% dividend…
Junior Gold Mining Stocks

Gold’s Seasonality:

It’s that time of year again where gold tends to move higher. Below you can see where we are and what the price of gold typically does in November.
Gold Seasonality Trading

Gold Investing & Trading Conclusion:

Looking forward one month (November) and factoring in the recent pullback in gold to known support levels along with strong buying of junior gold mining stocks, I feel gold will take another run at the $1800 level and for GDXJ to test its previous higher of $25.50 at minimum. If both those levels get taken out then a massive bull market for precious metals could be triggered. Only time will tell…

Chart of the Day - Eastman Chemical Company (EMN)

The "Chart of the Day" is Eastman Chemical Company (EMN), which showed up on Friday's Barchart "All-Time High" list. Eastman Chemical gapped higher Friday and posted an all-time at $61.22 and closed up +12.19%. TrendSpotter exited a short position on Eastman Friday and got long at $59.57. In recent news on the stock, Eastman Chemical reported Friday that in Q3 it earned $1.57 per share on an adjusted basis from continuing operations, higher than analysts' estimates of $1.42 per share. Eastman also raised its full-year 2012 earnings forecast to $5.30 to $5.40 per share for the year on an adjusted basis, up from its prior forecast of $5.30 per share, as CEO Jim Rogers said that the company's acquisition of Solutia this summer boosted earnings. Eastman Chemical Company, with a market cap of $8.327 billion, is a global chemical company that manufactures and sells chemicals and specialty polymers supplied to the inks, coatings, adhesives, sealants, and textile industries; fine chemicals; performance chemicals and intermediates; specialty plastics; polyester plastics such as polyethylene terephthalate sold under the trademark EASTAPAK polymers; and fibers.

Embry – Truth Exposed About Missing Central Bank Gold

from King World News
Today John Embry told King World News, “I firmly believe that if you look at all of the Western central banks, and the gold they allegedly own, I believe a significant portion of that is not in their vaults.” Embry also stated, “So they can say all they want, but in the end the truth will be revealed by the lack of physical gold in the market as they run out of enough gold to keep the price under control.” Embry also predicted, “The revelation of this central bank conspiracy will make the Libor scandal pale in comparison.”

But first, here is what Embry, who is chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say about missing central bank gold: “Well I’m glad that some light is being shed on this publicly. This has been a contention of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee for years, that a lot of the central bank gold is not in the vaults. Gold ownership has changed hands as it’s been swapped, leased and what have you. I think this is very important that this is coming to light.”
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…

QE3 – Pay Attention If You Are in the Real Estate Market

by Catherine Austin Fitts, Solari:
I used to have a deputy who said that the FHA mortgage insurance funds were where mortgages went to die. That was, however, before the creation of MERS, derivatives and the explosion of mortgage fraud during the 1990′s which in combination with the “strong dollar policy” engineered what I have referred to as a financial coup d’etat.

The challenge for Ben Bernanke and the Fed governors since the 2008 bailouts has been how to deal with the backlog of fraud – not just fraudulent mortgages and fraudulent mortgage securities but the derivatives piled on top and the politics of who owns them, such as sovereign nations with nuclear arsenals, and how they feel about taking massive losses on AAA paper purchased in good faith.

On one hand, you could let them all default. The problem is the criminal liabilities would drive the global and national leadership into factionalism that could turn violent, not to mention what such defaults would do to liquidity in the financial system. Then there is the fact that a great deal of the fraudulent paper has been purchased by pension funds. So the mark down would hit the retirement savings of the people who have now also lost their homes or equity in their homes. The politics of this in an election year are terrifying for the Administration to contemplate.
Read More @ Solari.com

Time to Pull the Lever – On Gold

Gold closed at $1,716 per ounce last Friday, almost $80 below the peak of $1,791.75 it reached three weeks ago. The drop was widely attributed to continuing global economic uncertainty and speculators taking profits – which means the experts have no idea what really happened. We don't try to second-guess short-term fluctuations here at Casey Research, but instead keep our focus on the bigger picture.
In the greater scheme of things, a 4.2% decline is not a significant drop for gold; for a savvy investor, it's another chance to buy bullion cheaper. We're not alone in thinking that way: Reuters reports that gold holdings of metal-backed exchange-traded funds grew over this period. There are indications that Indians preparing for their festival season pushed demand higher as well.
An even better buying opportunity can be found with the gold equities. While gold was down 4.2% from October 4 to 26, gold stocks fell by 5.3% at the same time.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The difference isn't all that big – so why do we think it's important? First, the decrease would have been much greater if we'd cheated a bit and used the numbers as of two days earlier, underscoring yet again how volatile our market is. Second, the current decline in the sector is likely to be short-lived due to the traditionally stronger fall and winter season we're entering. Third, the inherent leverage gold stocks carry over the price of the metal should deliver better-than-bullion returns when they rebound – a fact big investment funds have been taking advantage of for some time (more)