David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research: Gold Up Through the End of August

from Financial Survival Network
David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research Center joined us today.
Gold and silver are looking very good through the end of August. After that it’s uncertain and it could test new lows.
Nat Gas is looking strong the next year. Oil is uncertain. Dollar is looking weak.
More to come from David and Charles. Stay tuned.
Click Here to Listen to the AudioPlease share this article

Sell TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO)

TiVo Score: 34

TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), best known for its digital video recorders (DVRs), is having its lunch absolutely devoured by on-demand services from cable companies and video streaming services from Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Hulu.

On the chart, we see a large, irregular triple-top in place since 2013. If the neckline at $10.50 is broken, it would target a drop to $7. Given TiVo's paltry score of 34 on my metric, I think this is a likely scenario.


Please share this article

The impact of the U.S. dollar

The 1st major corrective phase in almost 10 months for the U.S. dollar continues to unfold. With the US$ declining 7.5% since March, it has provided a boost for many global currencies and a much needed lift for commodity bulls.

The dollar's drop has escalated the Euro by almost 10%, lifted the British Pound by 8%, raised the Australian dollar by 6.6% and increased the value of the Canadian currency by 6.4%.

But the biggest impact of the recent U.S. dollar's pullback is on commodities.

The world's heaviest traded resource (Light crude oil) has rose a remarkable 44% since March, gold is up 6.5%, silver has advanced 13.7% and the S&P Industrial metals index (GYX) is up 9.9%.

And all since the start of the dollar's decline just 60 days ago.

But the current soft economics indicates the weakness in the dollar is likely not complete.

Weak retail sales data for April does not bode well for Q2 GDP. Also the large inventory build-up in Q1 GDP means that in Q2 we could see some of this inventory buildup drawn down resulting in lower growth.

The strength of the U.S. Dollar is importing deflation into the US and has pushed the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) lower to minus 1.3% which is the lowest we have ever seen.

US jobless claims are a bright spot in the U.S. economy falling a further to 264,000 which pushed the 4-week average to a 15 year low.

Bottom line: The weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data has been a boom for commodity markets.

The dollar's decline since March has lifted most natural resource prices off their bases.

We expect slightly more downside pressure for the US$ in the next few weeks and ultimately reaching the $0.90-$0.92 range.

Nevertheless, the long-term picture for the dollar continues to be bright. With many superior economic elements to other G8 countries and the promise of an interest rate increase in the second half of 2015, we believe there is additional upside for the greenback in the months to come.

Our long range target for the dollar remains at $1.20.
Please share this article

Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) is a Sell

Wynn Resorts Score: 38

The bad news just keeps rolling in for Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), which has seen its shares almost sliced in half over the past year.

In late April, first-quarter earnings missed analysts' estimates by a wide mark thanks to a major slowdown in revenue from Macau, and the company cut its dividend by two-thirds.

As if that wasn't bad enough, this week, WYNN's largest shareholder, mega mutual fund firm T. Rowe Price cut its stake in the stock by nearly 40%.

And the latest sell-off was sparked by a downgrade from a Barclays (NYSE: BCS) analyst who said on Friday that it was "too early to call a bottom" in the Macau gaming market. He lowered his price target from $160 to $105.

Given WYNN's score of 38 out of a possible 200 on my own system, I think that's much too generous. I see shares headed to the support zone below $100 and likely much lower.
Please share this article

Rosetta Resources Inc. (NASDAQ: ROSE)

Rosetta Resources Inc., an independent exploration and production company, acquires and develops onshore energy resources in the United States. It owns producing and non-producing oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas properties in proven or prospective basins that are primarily located in the Eagle Ford shale in South Texas and in the Permian Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2014, the company owned approximately 64,000 net acres in South Texas and 57,000 net acres in West Texas; and had proved reserves of 282 million barrels of oil equivalent that comprised 68 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, 105 million barrels of NGLs, and 655 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
Take a look at the 1-year chart of Rosetta (NASDAQ: ROSE) below with added notations:

After a long decline from June until December, ROSE has been trading sideways during the most recent 5 months. While in the sideways move, the stock has formed a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern.
ROSE’s rectangle pattern has formed a resistance at $25 (red) and a $16 support (green). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels.

The Tale of the Tape: ROSE is trading within a rectangle pattern. The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $16 or on a breakout above $25. The ideal short opportunity would be on a break below $16.
Please share this article