Saturday, June 29, 2013

China's "Dr. Doom": The Chinese bubble is about to burst

Chinese investors are holding their collective breaths to see if the banking crisis predicted two years ago by renowned Chinese economist Li Zuojun will come to fruition in the next couple of months. Li's astounding accuracy in predicting China's economy has led to him earning the nickname "China's most successful doomsayer."

Though far from perfect, a lot of what he said here rings true. But the interesting insight is that he forecasts that the incoming regime will want to take its lumps early, in 2013, so as to minimize blame ("it was the old crew's fault") and maximize praise for subsequent recovery...

He notes three other drivers (aside from this political one) including external flows and credit expansion, and fears social instability should the status quo be maintained...

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Here’s How to Play America’s Energy Boom

For years, the United States was known for being the world's largest energy-consuming nation, with imports from abroad making up for its inability to produce enough fuels for its appetite. Now, the U.S. is entering an energy renaissance, one that's leading to a marked shift in that position.

The International Energy Agency recently predicted America's oil production will exceed Saudi Arabia's output by 2017, and three years after that, it's expected to be a net natural gas exporter. Major oil finds in California, North Dakota, Texas and Pennsylvania have already put the country on a course toward energy independence, and even more energy fields have yet to be proved out. Developing these new resources and the infrastructure to transport, process and deliver this energy could take decades. Along the way, the biggest benefactor may well be master limited partnerships, or MLPs.

MLPs build, own and operate the pipelines, barges, railcars and storage tanks to deliver natural resources, and the opportunity in front of them is potentially massive. In February, U.S. News & World Report quoted an investor who estimated that more than $300 billon of new infrastructure development is needed within the next decade to accommodate the energy boon. For some time, this wasn't widely recognized -- Warren Buffett bought railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $26 billion a few years ago partly for this reason -- but that's changing. (more)

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Shiller: a rare, honest economist, admits what most financial types never will

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How To Invest: Learn To Spot The Double-Bottom Base

The double-bottom base reflects an investor's harshest emotions: crushing disappointment, capitulation and humiliation. If you can spot this pattern, you can add jubilation to that list.
A double-bottom base looks like a "W" with a slightly lower right side than left side. That second bottom should undercut the first.
Why? That's where the market makes a fool out of us, flush ing folks out of a perfectly good stock before making its bull run.
Here's what you need to see. First, the stock declines. Then it rebounds, but not as high as the point where the first decline started. This is where the feeling of hope surges that your stock is a winner.
Then it falls again. Many holders, losing patience with the stock, will bail out if it makes a new low. The next thing you know, it takes out that first bottom. So far all you have is a stock that's falling, and a lot of broken hearts.
But if the stock then reverses higher in increasing volume, you have the makings of a double bottom.
Crucially important, the apex of the "W" must stand above the 10-week moving average. It also must appear in the upper half of the entire structure.
If your double-bottom candidate fails to meet these two criteria, it's flawed. The all-important inflection point — the apex — is so low that any rush to buy would still be met by older longs grateful for a way out of a bad position.
Avid Technology (AVID) — a developer of software and hardware for digital movie production — built a classic in 2003. The first down leg appeared from Jan. 7 to Jan. 27, with the stock falling 22% to 18.76. (1)
The stock bounced to 23.46 by Feb. 11 (2) — above the 10-week line and, you'll see later, in the upper half of the entire yet-to-be-finished structure (although you don't know that yet).
Then came the second down leg, which took out the first by two full points and bottomed out March 7. (3) Other than an upside reversal with colossal volume, there's no reason to believe Avid would find any support at the second bottom's neighborhood. After all, it was sitting below the moving averages and as much as 31% below its 52-week peak.
Still, it started to rise. The stock showed significant volume on the upside. Still, you shouldn't get excited unless and until it takes out that apex price — 23.46 — plus a dime. As with all base breakouts, look for confirmation in the form of a volume surge.
Such confirmation didn't appear the first time Avid hit that apex, on March 26. The stock's feeble attempt fizzled.
But April 2 saw the stock soar 11% in double-paced trade (see a daily chart). That move proved to be the start of a run that lasted six months, and saw the stock rally 154% to as high as 59.77.

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Don Coxe: What Happened To Fear OF Inflation?

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UnderTheLens Bond Crisis

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The Coming Economic Collapse - Global Economic Crisis 

$59 trillion dollars in debt, how much interest on money borrowed from the private global FED RESERVE banks. How much hard assets or cash does that amount of money wield. How much bribery, influence or flat out ownership of the media, colleges, and both political parties, does that kind of power buy? The more debt we are in, the more money the FED makes on interest, from the money we borrow from them; via the IRS, and income taxes. Which they produce from thin air. What a racket!.

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Student-Loan Rates Set to Double

With just two working days left before the U.S. government doubles a student-loan interest rate, lawmakers are haggling over what to do about it.
The argument isn't over whether to allow the rate on the most popular type of federal loan to rise above 3.4 percent, the level set by law until July 1. It's about how much borrowing costs will increase.
"The likelihood of students keeping the interest rate they had for the last two years is diminishing by the hour," said Terry Hartle, senior vice president at the American Council of Education, the largest lobbying group for colleges and universities. "The outcome will be students will pay more than 3.4 percent in the short term," he said in a telephone interview. (more)

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Miners Can’t Operate With Gold Below $1500, Gold Fields Says

Bullion must rise to $1,500 an ounce for the gold mining industry to be sustainable, according to Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI)’s Chief Executive Officer Nick Holland.

“The industry is not sustainable at $1,230 an ounce, which is where the gold price is at the moment,” Holland said today in a telephone interview. “We’re going to need at least $1,500 an ounce to sustain this industry in any reasonable form.”

Gold entered a bear market in April on signs the U.S. economy was improving and fell further this month as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he may slow bond purchases should the U.S. recovery continue. The plunging price of bullion is squeezing producers who spent $195 billion on acquisitions in a decade-long price boom that peaked in 2011, when prices reached $1,900 an ounce.

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Scary times hit mortgage shoppers

With mortgage rates rising at a record rate, it's become a scary time for mortgage shoppers.

Homebuyers got blindsided by an interest rate hike of more than half a percentage point Thursday, the biggest increase in more than 26 years. Now, many shoppers don't know whether they should scramble for a loan or wait on the sidelines.

Mike Brewer and his wife, Laura, shopped for a home for months before they finally gave up and decided to build a new place in Warrenton, Va. Since the new home won't be ready until November, however, they can't lock in a mortgage until September, said Brewer.

With rates rising by a percentage point over the past two months, they're already looking at an extra $200 a month -- and climbing -- on a 30-year mortgage.

"We had been hopeful that rates would stay low through 2013, which is why we made the jump when we did," said Brewer, who works as an IT director for a construction company. "Had we known the rates would spike, we might have changed our minds." (more)

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Friday, June 28, 2013

Precious Metals Life Cycle Nears an End - Final Stage of Denial

The life cycle of most things not matter what it is (living, product, service, ideas etc...) go through four stages and the stock market is no different. Those who recently gave in and bought gold, silver, mining stocks, coins will be enter this stage of the market in complete denial. They still think this is a pullback and a recover should be just around the corner.
Well the good news is a recovery bounce should be nearing, but if technical analysis, market sentiment and the stages theory are correct then a bounce is all it will be followed by years of lower prices and dormancy.
I really do hate to be a mega bear or mega bull on anything long term but the charts have painted a clear picture this year for precious metals and I want to share what I see. Take a look at the chart below which shows a typical investment life cycle using the four stage theory.

The Four Stages Theory
Classic economic theory dissects the economic cycle into four distinct stages: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Decline.  Stock, index or commodities are no different, and proceeds through the following cycle:
  • Stage 1 - Accumulation: After a period of decline a stock consolidates at a contracted price range as buyers step into the market and fight for control over the exhausted sellers.  Price action is neutral as sellers exit their positions and buyers begin to accumulate.
  • Stage 2 - Markup: Upon gaining control of price movement buyers overwhelm sellers and a stock enters a period of higher highs and higher lows.  A bull market begins and the path of least resistance is higher.  Traders should aggressively trade the long side, taking advantage of any pullback or dips in stock price.
  • Stage 3 - Distribution: After a prolonged increase in share price the buyers now become exhausted and the sellers again move in.  This period of consolidation and distribution produces neutral price action and precedes a decline in stock price.
  • Stage 4 - Decline: When the lows of Stage 3 are breached a stock enters a decline as sellers overwhelm buyers.  A pattern of lower highs and lower lows emerges as a stock enters a bear market.  A well-positioned trader would be aggressively trading the short side, taking advantage of the often quick decline in share price.

Gold Price Weekly Chart - Stages Overlaid

Silver Price Weekly Chart - Stages Overlaid

Gold Mining Stocks - Monthly Chart
This chart is a longer term picture using the monthly chart. I wanted to show you the 2008 panic selling washout bottom in miners which I think is about to happen again. While physical gold and silver are in a bear market and should be some a long time, gold mining stocks will likely find support and possibly have a strong rally in the coming months.
Many gold stocks pay high dividends and are wanted by large institutions and funds. The lower prices go the higher the yield is making them more attractive. So I figure gold miners will bottom before physical metals do. A bounce is nearing but at this point selling pressure and momentum continue to plague the entire PM sector.

Precious Metals Investing Conclusion:
In short, I feel with Quantitative Easing (QE) likely to be trimmed back later this year, and with economic numbers slowly improving along with solid corporate earnings the need or panic to buy gold or silver is diminishing around the globe.
While there are still major issues and concerns internationally they do not seem to have any affect on precious metals this year. Long terms trends like the weekly and monthly charts shown in this report tends to lead news/growth/lack of growth by several months. So lower precious metals prices may be telling us something very positive.
The precious metals sector is likely to put in a strong bounce this summer but after sellers will likely regain control to pull prices much lower yet.
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Liquidity Services, Inc. (NASDAQ: LQDT)

Liquidity Services, Inc. operates various online auction marketplaces for surplus, salvage, and scrap assets in the United States. The company's auction marketplaces include that enables corporations to sell surplus and salvage consumer goods and capital assets;, which enables selected federal government agencies to sell surplus and scrap assets; and that enables local and state government entities, including city, county, and state agencies, as well as school boards and public utilities to sell surplus and salvage assets. It also operates that enables corporations to sell idle, surplus, and scrap equipment in the oil and gas, petrochemical and power generation industries; for corporations located in the United States, Europe, and Asia to sell manufacturing surplus and salvage capital assets. The company's marketplaces provide professional buyers access to supply of surplus and salvage assets presented with customer focused information, including digital images and other relevant product information along with services to complete the transaction; and enable corporate and government sellers to enhance their financial return on excess assets by providing liquid marketplaces and value-added services that integrate sales and marketing, logistics, and transaction settlement.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of LQDT (Liquidity Services, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of LQDT (Liquidity Services, Inc.) After peaking at $57 in September, LQDT has gradually worked its way lower. From November until May the stock had shown a tendency to react to the level of $35 (red) and LQDT showed a sign of life when it broke back above $35 in mid-May. Unfortunately, the stock stalled again and broke back below that level in June. The stock is now approaching the 52-week low level of $30 (blue) that it has tested multiple times since the end of January.
The Tale of the Tape: LQDT is approaching its key level of $30. A trader could enter a long position at $30 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below that support a short position would be recommended instead.
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5 Ways to Profit From Gold and Silver’s Drop


Anyone thinking about how to invest in precious metals right now has been watching the plunging prices of gold and silver.

Both metals are firmly in bear market territory. By the end of last week, gold was down about 27% from its 52-week high of $1,803 and silver had cratered by a whopping 43%.

But the recent downward slide in the price of silver and gold has once again revealed to investors the most important fundamental fact about precious metals — they’re incredibly volatile. Swings of 50% in value in a single year are not unheard of.  (more)
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As Stocks, Bonds and Gold Fall, Where’s the Cash Going?

June is when spring turns to summer, but this year it’s felt like fall for investors in nearly every market.

Bonds have tumbled in value, from Treasuries to corporate debt to municipals, as the focus on a possible end to the Federal Reserve's asset-buying prompted heavy withdrawals from fixed-income funds. Gold is collapsing and is on its way to posting the metal’s worst quarter on record. Non-shiny commodities have also been weak. Emerging markets have led the declines, as China’s banking system heaves. Stocks are down from their highs of May, though they’ve bounced the past couple of days.

 This recent across-the-waterfront swamping of most every investment market raises two key questions: Where is the money that is exiting these assets going? And what happened to the balanced interplay among markets that produced offsetting movements and flattered a diversified portfolio? (more)

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Gold Is Unsafe at Any Price: Dicker

Another day another beating for gold. The yellow metal fell another 3.5% overnight bringing it to prices unseen for almost three years. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) is now down over 25% year-to-date as retail investors find themselves on the wrong side of what is suddenly looking like one of the great boom-bust cycles in precious metal history.
As for what's driving the plummet, MercBloc president Dan Dicker says it's all about Main Street coming to the sudden realization that there is no safety whatsoever in gold. "When the retail customer gets frightened, they get frightened in a hurry and they get frightened for big numbers," Dicker says in the attached clip. (more)

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Ford: It’s Time to Buy

For the first time since its near total collapse in 2009, the American auto industry is hitting top gear.

And I’m talking about the entire industry — from major car manufacturers to small parts suppliers.

Vehicle sales are on track to reach about 15 million units this year, up from 10.4 million in 2009.

As a result, factories are now operating at 95% capacity — and for the first time in four years, they’re looking to add more workers, floor space and machinery. (more)

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Thursday, June 27, 2013

Small-Cap Biotech Poised for a Quick Double-Digit Pop: INSM

When it comes to investing in young and unproven biotech stocks, you want to look for a few key characteristics. First, the company should be targeting a market for which current treatments are less than ideal. Second, this potential market should be fairly large in size and scope. And third, you want to focus on companies that have already established compelling, robust results in clinical testing trials.
New Jersey-based Insmed (NASDAQ: INSM) checks all those boxes. Better still, a clear imminent catalyst exists to send this stock to fresh highs. With a market cap of roughly $350 million, Insmed qualifies as a small cap, but it is hardly a well-kept secret. But with a few good breaks on the regulatory front, this company's market value could easily -- and quickly -- tack on millions more. Notably, the stock has slumped more than 20% since hitting a new 52-week high in late May, providing a fresh entry point. (more)

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17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse

Tornado-Damage-Photo-by-JOE-M500-300x300The vast majority of Americans are going to be absolutely blindsided by what is coming.  They don’t understand how our financial system works, they don’t understand how vulnerable it is, and most of them blindly trust that our leaders know exactly what they are doing and that they will be able to fix our problems.  As a result, most Americans are simply not prepared for the massive storm that is heading our way.  Most American families are living paycheck to paycheck, most of them are not storing up emergency food and supplies, and only a very small percentage of them are buying gold and silver for investment purposes.   They seem to have forgotten what happened back in 2008.  When the financial markets crashed, millions of Americans lost their jobs.  Because most of them were living on the financial edge, millions of them also lost their homes.  Unfortunately, most Americans seem convinced that it will not happen again.  Right now we seem to be living in a “hope bubble” and people have become very complacent.  For a while there, being a “prepper” was very trendy, but now concern about a coming economic crisis seems to have subsided.  What a tragic mistake.  As I pointed out yesterday, our entire financial system is a giant Ponzi scheme, and there are already signs that our financial markets are about to implode once again.  Those that have not made any preparations for what is coming are going to regret it bitterly.  The following are 17 signs that most Americans will be wiped out by the coming economic collapse…

#1 According to a survey that was just released, 76 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.  But most Americans are acting as if their jobs will always be there.  But the truth is that mass layoffs can occur at any time.  In fact, it just happened at one of the largest law firms in New York City.

#2 27 percent of all Americans do not have even a single pennysaved up.

#3 46 percent of all Americans have $800 or less saved up.  (more)

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Taubman Centers, Inc. (NYSE: TCO)

Taubman Centers, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust. As of June 30, 2005, the company owned a 63% managing general partner's interest in The Taubman Realty Group Limited Partnership (the operating partnership). The operating partnership is a subsidiary that engages in the ownership, management, leasing, acquisition, development, and expansion of regional retail shopping centers and interests therein. As of August 23, 2007, it owned and/or managed 23 urban and suburban shopping centers in 11 states the United States. These centers are located in metropolitan areas, including New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Detroit, Phoenix, Miami, Dallas, Tampa, Orlando, and Washington, D.C. The operating partnership also owns certain regional retail shopping development projects, as well as approximately 99% of The Taubman Company LLC, which manages the shopping centers and provides other services to the operating partnership and to the company. Taubman Centers qualifies as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of TCO (Taubman Centers, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TCO (Taubman Centers, Inc.) TCO has been holding a very important level of support at $75 (blue) for almost the entire duration of the 1-year chart. No matter what the market has or has not done over that period of time, TCO has held that $75 level. The stock approaching $75 again should provide another bounce higher, but if the overall market continues to sell-off, TCO could break that support.
The Tale of the Tape: TCO has a very strong level of support at $75. A trader could enter a long position at $75 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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Texas' Next Big Oil Rush

New pipelines are beginning to carry a glut of domestic crude from the middle of the country to Texas' Gulf Coast, boosting the fortunes of the area's big refineries and further fueling a decline in oil imports.
 Magellan Midstream Partners' Longhorn pipeline began shipping oil from West Texas to Houston in April—the first of at least seven pipeline projects that could send as much as two million barrels a day from oil-saturated choke points in Oklahoma and the interior of Texas to the largest concentration of refineries in the country. But domestic oil production is at such a high level that the Gulf Coast refineries won't be able to process all of the crude.
The pipelines, all set to come online by the end of next year, mark a new phase in the U.S. oil boom.
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

James Rickards: Currency Wars and $7,000 Gold

About this week’s show:
-Outcomes: Conflict, chaos or a gold standard?
-2008 crisis risks magnified
-Danger: Fed gets more than bargained for
-Be sure to read, Currency Wars, Purchase  here
Currency Wars300
About the guest: James Rickards is the author of the national bestseller, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and a Partner in Tangent Capital Partners, a merchant bank based in New York. He has been interviewed in The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox, CNN, BBC and NPR and is an Op-Ed contributor to the Financial Times, New York Times and Washington Post.

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Chart Pattern Projects This 3D Printing Stock Could Soar 55% by Year-End: SSYS, XONE, DDD

3D printers are little machines, but they're making a big impact. Some analysts even speculate they could soon change the way copying is done.
3D printers use special material to "print" physical, three-dimensional objects. Just as traditional printers use ink to create words on a page, 3D printers use tiny strips of plastic and other materials to build actual, hand-held objects.
Manufacturers like Ford (NYSE: F) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) already use 3D printing technology to recreate engine parts. Scientists presently use the printers to model body parts. Even NASA plans to ship a 3D printer into space so astronauts can print replacement space parts in orbit.
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What Happened The Last 2 Times Mortgage Rates Spiked Like This?

Perhaps – as we are always reminded – it will be different this time but following this morning’s surge in Consumer Confidence, we got to thinking, just why is everyone so confident? The facts are, as Citi’s FX Technicals group notes, the last times we saw mortgage rates surge like they just have, that marked the peak in consumer confidence and the market followed shortly after. It seems that the Fed, by engineering ever lower rates, can lift confidence; but as is clear from this chart (and as we noted previously) there is a limit to this effect (ZIRP) and each cycle has diminishing returns.
Chart adapted from Citi FX Technicals
Zero Hedge
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Wednesday, June 26, 2013

3 Oversold REITs: MAA, CHSP, HIW

Since May 22 - the first day Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at "tapering" quantitative easing - the S&P 500 has fallen nearly 7% while the yield of the 10-year Treasury note has risen from 1.89% to 2.55%.
Some of the hardest hit stocks during this selloff have been those with strong yields as higher interest rates have made their dividends comparatively less attractive.
But is this selloff in dividend stocks overdone?
The Fed Giveth, the Fed Taketh Away
A common misperception is that over the last couple of years, yield-starved investors bid up all dividend stocks to untenable valuations and that this recent selloff is just a normal correction for these overbought securities.
That may be the case for some dividend stocks - but not all.
In fact, one of the hardest hit groups has been real estate investment trusts (REITs). But there are many REITs with strong fundamentals there were trading at very reasonable prices before the recent "dividend off" trade. (more)

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Italy Could Need EU Rescue Within Six Months, Warns Mediobanca

Italy is likely to need an EU rescue within six months as the country slides into deeper economic crisis and a credit crunch spreads to large companies, a top Italian bank has warned privately.
by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Mediobanca, Italy’s second biggest bank, said its “index of solvency risk” for Italy was already flashing warning signs as the worldwide bond rout continued into a second week, pushing up borrowing costs.
“Time is running out fast,” said Mediobanca’s top analyst, Antonio Guglielmi, in a confidential client note. “The Italian macro situation has not improved over the last quarter, rather the contrary. Some 160 large corporates in Italy are now in special crisis administration.”
The report warned that Italy will “inevitably end up in an EU bail-out request” over the next six months, unless it can count on low borrowing costs and a broader recovery.
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IMAX Corporation (NYSE: IMAX)

IMAX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment technology company specializing in motion picture technologies and presentations worldwide. The company operates in seven segments: IMAX Systems, Theater System Maintenance, Joint Revenue Sharing Arrangements, Film Production and IMAX Digital Re-Mastering (DMR), Film Distribution, Film Post-Production, and Other. The IMAX Systems segment designs, manufactures, sells, or leases IMAX theater projection system equipment. The Theater System Maintenance segment maintains IMAX theater projection system equipment in the IMAX theater network. The Joint Revenue Sharing Arrangements segment provides IMAX theater projection system equipment to an exhibitor in exchange for a share of the box-office and concession revenues. The Film Production and IMAX DMR segment produces films and performs film re-mastering services. The Film Distribution segment distributes films for which the company has distribution rights. The Film Post-Production segment offers film post-production and film print services. The Other segment owns and operates IMAX theaters; rents two-dimensional and three-dimensional (3D) large-format film and digital cameras to third party production companies; and offers after market sales services for projection system components and 3D glasses.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of IMAX (IMAX Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of IMAX (IMAX Corporation) IMAX has been holding a very important level of support at $25 (blue) since the middle of February. No matter what the market has or has not done over that period of time, IMAX has held that $25 level, which was also a brief resistance in January. The stock approaching $25 again should provide another bounce higher, but if the overall market continues to sell-off, IMAX could break that support.
The Tale of the Tape: IMAX has a very good level of support at $25. A trader could enter a long position at $25 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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Zillow 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Skyrockets By Massive 50 bps In One Week To 4.38%, Most Since 2011

from Zero Hedge:
Goodbye housing (non)recovery… except for those private equity-cum-landlord firms and offshore oligarchs who pay all cash of course. “The 30-year fixed mortgage rate on Zillow(R) Mortgage Marketplace is currently 4.38 percent, up fifty basis points from 3.88 percent at this time last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered between 3.82 and 4 percent late last week, before spiking up near the current rate over the weekend. This represents the highest rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace since July 2011.”
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Marc Faber: S&P Could Drop 30% From High

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Chinese Stocks Drop To Lowest Since Jan 2009; Down 20% From Feb Highs / By Tyler Durden / June 24, 2013, 21:48 -0400
With US equities 7.5% off their all-time highs and on the verge of instigating a ‘Markets In Turmoil’ special, we thought it perhaps of note that the growth engine of the world continues to see real turmoil. Short-term funding rates remain elevated (7-day repo jumping 240bps to 10% today) as the ‘engineered’ credit crunch continues for China. The Shanghai Composite opened down today, crossing the 20% drop level from the recent Feb highs (and -16.5% in the last 16 days!)pushing the index to its lowest level since January 2009.
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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

76% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck

Roughly three-quarters of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck, with little to no emergency savings, according to a survey released by Monday.

Fewer than one in four Americans have enough money in their savings account to cover at least six months of expenses, enough to help cushion the blow of a job loss, medical emergency or some other unexpected event, according to the survey of 1,000 adults. Meanwhile, 50% of those surveyed have less than a three-month cushion and 27% had no savings at all.

"It's disappointing," said Greg McBride,'s senior financial analyst. "Nothing helps you sleep better at night than knowing you have money tucked away for unplanned expenses." (more)

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Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADI)

Analog Devices, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits (ICs) for use in industrial, automotive, consumer, and communication markets worldwide. The company offers signal processing products that convert, condition, and process real-world phenomena, such as temperature, pressure, sound, light, speed, and motion into electrical signals. Its product range includes data converters to translate real-world analog signals into digital data and translate digital data into analog signals. The company also offers micro-electro mechanical systems technology based sensors comprising accelerometers to sense acceleration, gyroscopes to sense rotation, inertial measurement units to sense multiple degrees of freedom, and microphones to sense audio; isolators for various applications, such as universal serial bus isolation in patient monitors, smart metering applications, and satellites. Its products are used in a range of electronic equipment, including industrial process control, factory automation, instrumentation and measurement, energy management, and optical systems, as well as aerospace and defense electronics, automobiles, digital televisions, medical imaging equipment, patient monitoring devices, wireless infrastructure equipment, networking equipment, digital cameras, and portable electronic devices.
To review Analog's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ADI (Analog Devices, Inc.) While trading primarily sideways over the last (5) months, ADI has formed a solid resistance at $47 (red). That resistance would also provide a 52-week high breakout if the stock could manage to break above it. In addition, the stock has been climbing a long trendline of support (blue) since last July. At some point, the stock will have to break one of those two levels.
The Tale of the Tape: ADI has an up trending support and a 52-week resistance level to watch. A long trade could be made on a breakout above the $47 resistance or on a pullback to the support, which is currently approaching $44. A break below the up trending support could be an opportunity to enter a short trade.
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Chinese Banks’ Bond Risk Rises Most in Asia Amid Moody’s Warning

Bank of China Ltd. (3988), Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank Corp. led gains in Asian bond risk last week as Moody’s Investors Service warns credit curbs could threaten small and mid-sized lenders.
Prices of swaps tied to Bank of China, the nation’s fourth-largest lender, rose 70.4 basis points last week to 192.4, the biggest increase among members of the Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan, according to data provider CMA. The cost of insuring Asian corporate and sovereign bonds from default surged 27.6 basis points last week, the most since November 2011, CMA prices show.
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The World Is Now Headed Into A Depression / June 24, 2013
Today one of the top economists in the world told King World News that despite bounces, stocks will continue to crater and he has positioned his clients short for a collapse in global markets.  Michael Pento, founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, also warned that central planners now have the world headed into a depression.
Pento:  “It looks like the central bankers around the world have, after years of saying they were going to keep interest rates low and they weren’t going to allow markets to work, decided to change their minds.
And I’ve seen a watershed moment for Mr. Bernanke….
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Housing Stocks Near Bear Market; Turn Red Year-To-Date / By Tyler Durden / June 24, 2013, 11:21 -0400
Maybe, just maybe, those pesky plunging lumber prices were on to something after all…
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Investment 101: Risk and Reward Introduction

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Monday, June 24, 2013

Lindsey Williams NEW INFO ~ Financial Market Collapse 2013-06-21

Pastor Lindsey Williams starts at 10:50 in the Video Financial Market Collapse (2013-06-21) :Pastor Lindsey Williams received two emails today (20th June 2013) from his elite friend bearing some startling news that could mean collapse. - Expose Cinema presents Pastor Lindsey Williams for half of the show speaking about the current economic crisis and how the economies of the world are ready for a major economic collapse through the derivative markets. This information is breaking HERE nationally. He has not talked about it anywhere else. NEW INFO.

 Email #1
A large Chinese bank just last night ran out of liquidity and was bailed out by the government. Furthermore: “The seven-day repo rate, the benchmark rate for funding costs between banks, surged to 12.33% Thursday afternoon from the 8.26% rate at Wednesday’s close. It had averaged around 3.30% this year before the liquidity crunch began at the end of last month.” This is the same phenomenon that occurred globally in September 2008.’

Email #2
‘The U.S. market has DECLINED over the past month, the Japanese stock market has recently dropped 20%, the U.S. bond market sold-off, gold (GLD) is down 20% year-to-date (YTD), Chinese stocks (FXI) have fallen 19.69% YTD, emerging markets stocks (EEM) have depreciated 11.3% IN THE LAST MONTH, copper—a premiere asset considered to indicate growth or contraction, has contracted 18% YTD, etc… Investors should not ignore this massive deflation in global markets and assets.’
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Technician John Betz: Healthy Correction – Buying Opportunity Ahead

Also, Ryan Puplava With the Market Wrap-Up, Erik Townsend on Commodities and Rob Bernard on Fixed Income
by James J Puplava CFP
Financial Sense

Jim welcomes John Betz CMT, Technical Strategist at Vermilion Technical Research, LLC. John sees the current market pullback as a healthy correction, which could touch the 200-day moving average. He sees a buying opportunity ahead, as overextended stocks become attractive again. If things were to worsen from here, he would look for a change in rotation, back to a more defensive “risk off” trade. Also in this segment, Ryan Puplava wraps up this week in the markets, Erik Townsend covers the commodity markets, and Rob Bernard has the Fixed Income Report.
Click Here to Listen to the Audio
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DigitalGlobe Inc. (NYSE: DGI)

Digital Globe, Inc. provides commercial earth imagery products and services in the Americas and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Defense and Intelligence, and Commercial. It offers satellite imagery contents, aerial orthomosaic imagery, and elevation series of digital surface and terrain models, as well as analysis products and services to provide context and insight to imagery. The company allows its customers in Direct Access Program, to directly task and receive imagery from its satellites. It also provides a range of on-and off-line distribution options, which enable its customers to access and integrate imagery into their business operations and applications. The company's products and services are used in defense, intelligence, and homeland security applications, as well as mapping and analysis, environmental monitoring, oil and gas exploration, and infrastructure management uses. Its principal customers include governments, civil agencies, and providers of location-based services, as well as various companies in other industry verticals, such as the financial services, energy, telecommunications, utility, forestry, mining, environmental, and agricultural industries.
To review Digital Globe's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of DGI (Digital Globe, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of DGI (Digital Globe, Inc.) DGI has been working its way higher since bottoming at $14 in July. Over the last (5) months the stock had been hitting $30 as resistance (blue), which was also a 52-week high resistance. The stocks formation of higher lows (red) was probably a good sign that the stock was going to finally push above that resistance, which it did at the end of May. DGI has already tested the $30 level as support once and it appears to be pulling back down to it again.
The Tale of the Tape: DGI broke out to a new 52-week high and now seems to be pulling back. A long trade could be made at $30 with a stop placed below that level. A break below $30 would negate the forecast for a continued move higher.

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Former US Treasury Official – Fed Orchestrated Gold Plunge

from King World News
Today a former US Treasury Official told King World News that the U.S. Federal Reserve orchestrated Thursday’s massive gold plunge which shocked market participants. Dr. Paul Craig Roberts also warned that we are on a path which will send the U.S. into “total chaos.” Below is what Dr. Roberts had to say in this powerful interview.
Eric King: “We had the Fed out with two straight days of propaganda and that was followed up by a smash in gold and silver.”
Dr. Roberts: “Yes, that’s true. It shows how irrational markets are. In fact, there was nothing new in the Fed’s statement. The markets have known for a long time that at some point the Fed is to taper down its bond purchases and eventually stop them.
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The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over / By Tyler Durden / June 23, 2013, 16:10 -0400
When a month ago the Central Banks’ Central Bank, aka the Bank of International Settlements (or BIS) in Basel where the MIT central-planning braintrust meets every few months to decide the fate of the world, warned that the Fed-induced collateral shortage is distorting the markets, few paid attention. That the implication behind said warning was that QE can not continue at the current pace, was just as lost. A few short weeks later following the biggest plunge in markets since 2011 in the aftermath of Bernanke’s taper tantrum, some are finally willing to listen.
However, they will certainly not like what the BIS just released as a follow up, both in the form of the BIS’ 83rd Annual Report, and the speech by Jaime Caruana to commemorate said annual meeting. For the simple reason that it reads like a run of the mill Sunday morning Zero Hedge sermon, which says, almost verbatim, that the days of kicking the can via flawed monetary policy are now over, and that the time for central banks to end the monetary morphine drip has finally come.
The BIS message, as summarized by the FT, is that “central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery… cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets.”
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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
  None scheduled  
8:30 am Durable goods orders May   4.2% 3.5%
9 am Case-Shiller home prices April   -- 10.9%
9 am FHFA home prices April   -- 7.2%
10 am Consumer confidence index June   74.0 76.2
10 am New home sales May
464,000 454,000
8:30 am GDP 1Q
2.4% 2.4%
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 6/22
350,000 354,000
8:30 am Personal income May   0.2% 0.0%
8:30 am Consumer spending May   0.3% -0.2%
8:30 am Core PCE price index May   0.1% 0.0%
10 am Pending home sales May   -- 0.3%
9:45 am Chicago PMI June   54.2% 58.7%
9:55 am Consumer sentiment index June   83.0 82.7
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Saturday, June 22, 2013

Nigel Farage – The Government Is Going To Steal Your Money

from King World News
On the heels of yesterday’s drubbing in the gold and silver markets, MEP Nigel Farage spoke with King World News about recent turbulence in key markets, and also warned KWN readers to expect more government theft as Cyprus is used as a template to steal money from citizens in the future. Below is what Farage had to say in part II of his powerful interview series.
Eric King: “I wanted to ask you about your thoughts on the propaganda coming out of the Federal Reserve (as we go through this orchestrated smash in gold and silver).”
Farage: “The fact is that America is living massively beyond its means. Pursuing policies that really are not in the interests of America. They are just a means of keeping the whole thing (financial system) propped up.
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Sub $20 Silver: David Morgan & Andy Hoffman

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Markets Approaching Key Support

Its Jerry Lee Lewis day at all about trends today namely: ”Great Balls Of Fire” And there’s a “Whole Lotta Of Shaking Goin On”
And that is what we are seeing here folks today.
Yesterday folks the 1600 zone on the SPX was holding all until? The afternoon when it broke and free fell into the close. Since then? We are in the process of seeing some confluence that tells us to beware on the short side and if the what to watch out for on the short side is starting to rear its head? Well then its the what to watch for on the long side that’s also in play.
Lets get into the charts here shall we.

So like it or not from an emotional standpoint here the best course of action is to probably do nothing here and wait for Jerry Lee Lewis to exit the stage, the charts are sure saying so. Who knows maybe the next act on American Bandstand is going to be Elvis and everyone went gaga when he took the stage. After all volatility goes both ways as we’ve seen recently. We’ve seen big moves to the upside and of course we’ve seen big moves to the downside so expect that to continue.
Its the weekend and who knows, MAYBE the new mainstream media battle cry emerges of the reason they are talking about scaling back tapering is because the economy is strong enough to stand on its own and that is a good thing. At some point that will be the next ra ra ra you watch. You see folks at extremes the market always looks for a catalyst or something it can hang its hat on to move it the other way if even for a few days.
Game Plan Week of 6-17
We have a fair enough of exposure right now with our current positions. Now it’s all about managing our risk here. In the end it’s going to be gain wash or loss. We know where supports are, we employed trade size risk management.
6-21 Given the markets have just sold off , given its options expiration, given the end of the quarter is next week, given we are getting some extreme short term indicators kicking in some deep oversold levels we are probably best served to bend like a willow tree in the wind right here for the day and use any strength next week to lighten the load on the longside.
Not fun here I get that, I get the emotional stance of wanting to kill everything here I really do (in order to stop the emotions of fear), but that is also about the time they turn the markets. Its an internal indicator Nervous Nellie uses to stop the emotions she feels and that’s about the time (after she walks away) the markets tend to turn around (without her) and show some sort of bounce.
Yesterday we said:
We work with what we have currently and should we see bounces in our issues we may start to cull some names and reduce exposure as we’re not sure big picture we are done going down till we take a look at the support zone of 1575-1580 ish when all said and done.
And here we are looking at the 1575 ZONE into the weekend. We’ll talk about this weekend about the short side, what to do with a bounce, where are we big picture? All of that so stay tuned, in the meantime like we said, bend like a willow tree in the wind vs an oak tree who’s limbs tend to break in the wind.
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Five Miners Chen Lin Expects to Buck the Trend

The Gold Report: As you noted in your last interview with The Gold Report in February, Goldman Sachs was predicting that gold would to go down to $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz) in several years, and now "Dr. Doom," Nouriel Roubini, says it's going to $1,000/oz. What's your view?

Chen Lin: In the near term, I think gold is being controlled by the paper market on Wall Street, which is unfortunate. However, I'm still bullish for the long run.

TGR: Do you see anything on the economic horizon that could create a more positive environment for gold in the near term?

CL: Personally, I'm not sure all the problems are behind us. Japan just had a big swing in the stock market and is going through a risky experiment to do a quantitative easing (QE), which is actually on a much larger scale than that of the U.S. I think Japan, for the next few months if not year or two, will decide how successful QE can be. Japan is doing much, much stronger QE than that of the U.S, which has 100% debt to gross domestic product (GDP). Japan has over 200%. So actually it's a blessing to the U.S. to see what is going to happen with the Japanese experiment. I think that will be a key indicator for the longer term effectiveness of QE. (more)

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Unretirement ahead for more than half of Canadians

A businesswoman is considering retiring later than 65.Just 27% of working Canadians expect to be retired at 66. That’s the key finding of this year’s Sun Life Canadian Unretirement™ Index. Almost the same number (26%) believe they’ll be working full-time at 66. Another 32% say they’ll be working part-time.
Five years ago, when we asked the same question in the heat of a global financial crisis, 51% of Canadians said they expected to be retired at 66. Interestingly, the percentage was even higher a year later. In 2009, 55% of Canadians expected retirement by 66. This year’s result is less than half that number.

While the data doesn’t tell us why attitudes began to grow more negative after 2009, the timing does coincide with a growing realization that the recovery following the 2008-2009 recession was relatively weak. After a period of optimism in 2009 — during which Canada’s economy was held up as a source of stability in a volatile world — it had become clear by 2010 that economic growth across much of the country would probably be soft for the foreseeable future.
Few retirees, more workers after age 65
The study also asked those who expect to be working at 66, why they believe that will be the case. Will they keep working because they want to or because they need to? Here, too, we see a sharp contrast between our first two years of Unretirement™ research and the three years since.
This year, among the 58% of Canadians who expect to be working either full- or part-time at 66, more than six in 10 (63%) say it’s because they’ll have to. The other 37% say it’s because they’ll want to. The gap between the percentages that want to and need to has never been wider.
These numbers tell us a lot about how much Canadians’ retirement expectations have changed in the five years since the financial crisis. The top reasons Canadians gave for working past 65 in 2008 and 2009 were about enjoying their work and wanting to stay mentally active. That changed in 2010. Since then, the top reason has been “to earn enough money to pay basic living expenses.” Back in 2008, just 11% cited that reason for working at 66. This year, one-quarter of the Canadians who expect to be working at 66 say it’s so that they will be able to cover the basics.
Other key findings this year:
  • Six in 10 working Canadians (59%) expect to retire with less than $250,000 in savings. Thirty-eight per cent say they’ll retire with less than $100,000 saved.
  • Just one-third (34%) say they are either “very satisfied” or “somewhat satisfied” with their retirement savings. Four in 10 (42%) are “very dissatisfied” or “somewhat dissatisfied.”
  • Almost four in 10 (38%) say there is a “serious risk” that they will outlive their retirement savings. Thirty-one per cent are not confident they will be able to cover their medical expenses in retirement.
  • Paying down debt is far and away the top financial priority. Forty-five per cent say paying off a loan or paying down a credit card balance is their No. 1 priority. Just 23% say the same about saving for retirement.
There is a bit of good news in this year’s results. Eighty per cent of working Canadians said they’ve taken at least one step toward achieving their retirement goals. In some cases, that step has been pretty rudimentary. Forty-three per cent have “started thinking about it” and 30% have discussed retirement plans with their spouse or partner. Others are taking more meaningful action: 42% are investing in a personal registered account; 29% have met with a financial advisor; and 22% make automatic/regular deposits to a retirement savings account.

One in five (20%) Canadians have taken no steps at all.

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The Coming Bond Bubble

Michael Synder from the popular Economic Collapse Blog joins us today.
He discusses:
(1) How he believes that Gold + Silver look attractive at these levels (even though he believes there could be more downside)
(2) Why the economy may be headed towards a short term deflationary crash. But then, the inflation genie may come out of the bottle.
(3) How he believes the bond market may crash.

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Treasuries’ Worst Week In 50 Years; Stocks Worst Week In 2013

from Zero Hedge:
5Y yields rose a stunning 37% this week – the most in the 50 year record of Bloomberg data. The 38bps increase in yields is also among the worst absolute shifts over that period but off such low levels it is quite a shock. Credit markets saw hedge protection bought early on in the week and then covered as real money started to sell their bonds on the back of redemptions in the last two days. The high-yield bond ETF had its biggest weekly loss in 13 months (notably clinging to the Lehman ledge levels). Equity markets suffered too (down 3.5 to 4.0% from the FOMC) with the S&P’s worst week of the year (even as it bounced off its 100DMA). Most sectors hung around the 3-4% drop but homebuilders are down over 8% since the FOMC. The USD surged over 2.1% on the week with JPY’s worst week in 43 months. VIX ended the day down 1.7 vols at 18.8% but beware as OPEX and hedge unwinds into underlying covers seems prevalent. Gold’s worst week in 21 months left it back under $1300.
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Friday, June 21, 2013

Gerald Celente: Trend Alert: War!

War! Ready or not, here it comes. As a former Trends Journal subscriber, you know our Top Trend for 2013 was “War.” Our forecast could not have been more clear: “The world is at war. And if the current trend lines continue, a war will soon be coming to a neighborhood near you.”

Today, the headlines are beginning to write the history we forecasted:

  • BBC: "Assad forces used chemical weapons - White House"  
  • AP: Russia questions Syrian chemical weapons evidence
  • The Washington Post: CIA preparing to deliver rebels arms through Turkey and Jordan 
  • The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Military Proposal to Arm Rebels Includes No-Fly Zone in Syria
  • The New York Times: Assad Warns Israel, Claiming a Stockpile of Russian Weapons
  • The Times of India: Don't repeat Iraq mistake in Syria, Russia warns America
  • Al Jazeera: Egypt cuts diplomatic ties with Syria 
Prepare yourself. President Obama warned Syria not to cross that chemical "red line." If it did, the Commander-in-Chief made it clear "all options" would be in play. And those options include war.

The same military industrial complex and governmental sociopaths who brought us the Vietnam, Afghan, Iraq and Libyan wars are at it again. Never mind that all of their “foreign entanglements” were monumental failures, ending in abject defeats that produced tragic results.

Here is a trend forecast you can take to the bank. If these mad men and mad women insist on waging war against the Syrian government, it will mark the beginning of World War III. And you don't have to be a trend forecaster, or Einstein, to predict how that one will eventually end. "I do not know how the Third World War will be fought, but I can tell you what they will use in the Fourth — rocks!" said Albert Einstein.

Last December, seeing war coming and refusing to obediently follow that bloody path, I promised Trends Journal subscribers that “I would provide a prescription for peace and offer remedies that could reinvigorate the world economy and advance civilization.”

Not only did I put my work and integrity on the line, I put my money on the line. I said that if readers found my “Four Rules of Peace” without merit and wished to cancel their subscriptions, we would send them a full refund.

I delivered. I kept my word.

But as the news breaks that war could very well be coming again, where do you stand today?

Do you believe war is on the horizon? Do you feel like a helpless citizen with no choice but to be led by a cabal of self-appointed somebodies? Are you among those who actually believe that when your leader takes you to war yet again – and a few million more innocent people are slaughtered, entire nations destroyed, and the chronically destabilized Middle East is set aflame – that peace will follow?

Do you believe that when one, some, or many of the people whose husbands, wives, children, relatives, friends and loved ones are killed by foreign invaders seek revenge they are nothing more than “terrorists?” Could it be they are just “getting even?”

The news of the day – the news we forecasted – compels you to ask yourself: Do you want to go to war, or do you want to advance toward peace?

Want peace? Here, again, are
Gerald Celente’s Four Rules of Peace.

As I repeatedly warned on the air, in print and in the Trends Journal since the Panic of '08, President Obama’s economic recovery plan, with its “shovel ready” jobs, was a sham and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing/cheap money/bond buying/low-interest rate schemes would all end in failure.

And I warned: “When all else fails, they’ll take us to war.”

All else has failed and now “they” are taking us to war.

There was no recovery, there is no recovery, there will be no recovery. As with medications that relieve symptoms but cannot cure the disease, the heavy doses of DC/Fed monetary medicine will not cure the nation’s chronic degenerative economic disease.

Included in my economic trend forecast, detailed at length in the forthcoming Summer Trends Journal, I will show how, should central banks begin to wind down their stimulus programs as interest rates continue to rise, the global economy will suffer an economic collapse of historical proportions.

How will the government respond? What steps will they take next?
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Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (NYSE: ATW)

Atwood Oceanics, Inc., an offshore drilling contractor, engages in the drilling and completion of exploratory and developmental oil and gas wells. The company owns a fleet of approximately 11 mobile offshore drilling units primarily located in the United States, Gulf of Mexico, the Mediterranean Sea, offshore West Africa, offshore southeast Asia, and offshore Australia. It also has three ultra-deepwater drill ships, and two high-specification jack ups under construction. The company was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
To review Atwood's stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of ATW (Atwood Oceanics, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of ATW (Atwood Oceanics, Inc.) ATW has tried to break through the $55 resistance (red) a couple of times over the last (5) months, including a false breakout in May. A break through that $55 resistance would be a new 52-week high for the stock and should mean higher prices moving forward.
The Tale of the Tape: ATW has a 52-week high resistance at $55. A long trade could be entered on a break through that level with a stop placed under it.

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The Don Coxe Call a weekly review of the Global Capital Markets

The Don Coxe Call
a weekly review of the Global Capital Markets
Ben’s Last Stand

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Housing Recovery is “Precarious,” Says Economist Gary Shilling

When the housing market cratered in 2007-2008, pulling the banking sector down with it, the U.S. economy fell into recession. Five years later the recession is over and housing has recovered.
Consider these markers:
  • Homebuilder confidence breached the key 50-level mark in June—for the first time in seven years—indicating that builders have turned optimistic about the market.
  • New home sales are up 29% from a year ago, and existing home sales – for April—hit a three-year high.
  • Home prices continue to climb. The benchmark S&P/Case-Shiller home price index posted its biggest gains in seven years, and compared to a year ago, the the median sales price for new homes are up 15%; and for existing homes up 11%, at $271,600 and $192,800, respectively.

Even the Fed is becoming more optimistic about housing. Its latest monetary statement, issued Wednesday, says housing has “ “strengthened further.” (more)

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