Monday, March 31, 2014

Make Money with Marijuana Stocks: GWPH, CBIS, VAPE, MJNA, MDBX, CANV

In a moment, I will tell you about what I think is by far the best cannabis tech play available today.
It involves a highly respected biotech firm with truly great science that has used a series of compounds known as cannabinoids to create breakthrough drugs to treat everything from pain to epilepsy to schizophrenia.
Before I do that, I want to give you some context to measure it against by taking a moment to analyze what have become highly popular marijuana stocks.
As I see it, these investments have received way too much hype. Yes, in the long run the industry will do well.  (more)

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Guess?, Inc. (NYSE: GES)

Guess?, Inc. designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of contemporary apparel and accessories for men, women, and children that reflect the American lifestyle and European fashion sensibilities. The company’s clothing collection includes jeans, pants, skirts, dresses, shorts, blouses, shirts, jackets, knitwear, and intimate apparel. Guess?, Inc. also grants licenses to manufacture and distribute a range of products that complement its apparel lines, including eyewear, watches, handbags, footwear, kids’ and infants’ apparel, leather apparel, swimwear, fragrance, jewelry, and other fashion accessories.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of GES (Guess, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of GES (Guess, Inc.)
GES has held a very important level of support at $27 (purple) since August of last year. No matter what the market has done lately, GES has not broken $27. Now, the stock has approached $27 again and that might provide another bounce higher. However, the stock’s recent lagging of the overall market could be setting the stock up for an eventual breakdown.

The Tale of the Tape: GES has a key level of support at $27. A trader could enter a long position at $27 with a stop placed under the level. If the stock were to break below the support, a short position would be recommended instead.
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Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG): This Dividend ETF Just Got a Steroid Injection

Back in January, I predicted that three companies would soon become Dividend Achievers – an elite group of companies with 10 or more years of increasing annual dividend payments.
Sure enough, CVS Caremark (CVS), Texas Instruments (TXN) and QUALCOMM (QCOM) were added to the Nasdaq U.S. Broad Dividend Achievers Index last week.
These companies, along with Intel (INTC) and Dominion Resources (D), are the five largest companies being added.
You can view the full list of index changes here.
Now, to be fair, determining which specific companies will join the index ahead of time is the easy part.
The true challenge is evaluating how the new additions will affect the index as a whole. (more)
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The Real Price Of Gold Since 1791

With gold's last few days of weakness being extrapolated to the end of the precious metal once again, we thought a look back at 220 years of military spending, economic growth, presidents, and inflation may be a useful comparison to the 'real' price of gold...


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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
forecast
previous
MONDAY, MARCH 31
9:45 am Chicago PMI March   60 59.8
TUESDAY, APRIL 1
9:45 am Markit PMI March   -- 55.5
10 am ISM March   53.9% 53.2%
10 am Construction spending Feb.   -0.3% 0.1%
TBA Motor vehicle sales March   15.8 mln 15.3 mln
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 2
8:15 am ADP employment March   -- 139,000
10 am Factory orders Feb.   1.2% -0.7%
THURSDAY, APRIL 3
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3-22
320,000 311,000
8:30 am Trade deficit Feb.   -39.6 bln -$39.1 bln
10 am ISM nonmanufacturing March   53.2% 51.6%
FRIDAY, APRIL 4
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls March   200,000 175,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate March   6.6% 6.7%
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Saturday, March 29, 2014

10 Actions that Will Make You Rich



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People Have No Idea A Terrifying Global Meltdown Is Coming

kingworldnews.com / March 28, 2014
Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that unsuspecting people around the world have no idea that a terrifying global meltdown is coming, because if they did, there would be panic like we are seeing right now in Japan.  Below is what Egon von Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this extraordinary interview.
Greyerz:  “Eric, it’s interesting to see that people are queuing up for 3 hours in Tokyo to buy gold bars.
A shop reported the busiest period in its 120-year history.  So, clearly some Japanese are seeing that Japan is on its way to bankruptcy, with massive money printing and a collapsing currency….
READ MORE
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Why do people believe the home ownership myth?

In my previous article I explained why buying a house is often a very silly financial decision, especially for people who are young, or those that have a low net worth.
In this article I’m going to explain why I think people are so infatuated with the idea of buying and owning a house, even though, if you look a the facts, it goes against many of the investment principles they believe in and hold dear.
But first, I need to address one of the myths about buying residential property, which was brought up in the comments section of my previous article.

Myth #1: Buying a house is a way to beat inflation

The theory is:
It is worth borrowing a huge amount of money to purchase a house because, not only will your property appreciate in value over time, your loan amount will also decrease in value in record time, partly because you are paying off a bit of your loan every month and partly because inflation eats away at the value of the amount you still owe!  (more)

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James Rickards (March 2014) Interview on Sprott Money News



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David Morgan — Palladium Is Leading The Precious Metals



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Man Who Made Legendary Call In Silver Tells KWN What’s Next

kingworldnews.com / March 28, 2014
Two days ago KWN published a piece titled One Of The Greatest Market Calls In History Happened In Silver.  This piece received a great deal of attention from readers around the world because it featured the astonishing market calls made by the CEO of Hinde Capital, Ben Davies, in the silver market.  The first call was for an upside explosion in the price of silver in August of 2010.  The price of silver then soared $32 in a matter of months.
Astonishingly, Davies then called for a crash in the price of silver on May 2nd, 2011.  The price of silver immediately plunged nearly 30% in just 4 days.  It was one of the greatest markets calls I have ever seen because, amazingly, Davies predicted the crash would happen within 3 to 5 days.  KWN was able to secure an interview with the man who made one of the greatest market calls in history, and yes, Davies talked about where the price of silver is headed in the future.  Below is what the Davies had to say in this timely interview.
READ MORE
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Corn Looks Like It’s Flagging Nicely

3-27-2014 zc daily
A breakdown below this flag (or pennant as some might call it) would signal to us that some further consolidation is necessary here and Corn is not quite ready for the next leg higher. I believe this is the lower probability outcome, but keeping an open mind to all possibilities is very important. I think the false breakdown to start the year is the catalyst necessary to keep this uptrend going.  (more)

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Friday, March 28, 2014

Green Dot Corporation (NYSE: GDOT)

Green Dot Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a technology-centric, pro-consumer bank holding company that provides personal banking for the masses. It offers prepaid debit card products and prepaid card reloading services in the United States, as well as mobile banking services with its GoBank mobile bank account offering. The company’s products include Green Dot MasterCard, Visa-branded prepaid debit cards, and various co-branded reloadable prepaid card programs; Visa-branded gift cards; and MoneyPak and swipe reload proprietary products, which enable cash loading and transfer services through its Green Dot Network.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of Green Dot (NYSE: GDOT) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of Green Dot (NYSE: GDOT)
GDOT had held an important level of support at $20 (blue) for the last 9 months, and that level had also been a previous resistance. After rallying back up near $22 earlier this month, the stock came back down to $20 yet again. Yesterday GDOT finally closed below the $20 support and should be moving overall lower from here.

The Tale of the Tape: GDOT had a key level of support at $20. Now that the stock has broken support, a trader might want to enter a short trade at or near the $20 level with a stop placed above that level. A break back above $20 could negate the forecast for a move lower.
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Emerging Markets Are Attractive, and Under-Invested

Emerging Market stocks are cheap & ripe for buying pretty soon
GEM Equities PBV
Source: Barclays Research
Some of you are wondering, with all of the negative media coverage, why in the world should one buy Emerging Market equities?
Well, the answer is precisely because everyone dislikes them so much. Even more importantly, GEM Equities are starting to look extremely attractive from long term valuation standpoint. Last week, the overall MSCI EM Index traded at 1.4 price to book value, cheapest since the depths of the Lehman panic in 2008. As we can see in the chart above, that is usually a buy zone (even though I personally think that P/BV could fall closer towards 1 before the major low is in).  (more)
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McCormick & Company (NYSE: MKC) Chart Is a Screaming 'Buy'

"Sugar and spice and all things nice" comes to mind when I think of Tuesday's rally in McCormick & Company (NYSE: MKC) following its better-than-expected fiscal first-quarter earnings report.
McCormick, which manufactures and distributes spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings and more, posted earnings of $0.62 per share, up 9% from the year-ago period. First-quarter revenue rose 6% year over year to $993.4 million. Analysts were expecting EPS of $0.58 on revenue of $974.5 million.
Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2014 earnings forecast of $3.22 to $3.29 per share, in line with analysts' estimates of $3.27 per share.  (more)

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Financial Select Sector Fund (XLF) One Chart You Need to Watch Right Now

If you're worried about trouble in the stock market, there's one sector you need to keep an eye on.
 
Banking stocks are the market's version of the canary in the coal mine. If there's going to be a correction, it'll show up first in these stocks.
 
The Financial Select Sector Fund (XLF) broke out to a new high last week. And so far, it has been immune to the volatility this week. That makes it tough – even for diehard skeptics like me – to argue there's trouble brewing in the stock market.
 
But the momentum of the financial sector could change course at any moment...
 
Take a look at this chart of XLF...
 
stock chart XLF
 
The red lines represent the support and resistance lines of a rising channel. It's a series of higher highs and higher lows – which is bullish.  (more)

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SouFun Holdings Ltd (NYSE: SFUN)

SouFun Holdings Limited operates a real estate Internet portal, and a home furnishing and improvement Website in the People’s Republic of China. The company offers marketing services on its Websites, primarily through advertisements, to real estate developers in the marketing phase of new property developments, as well as to real estate agencies; and suppliers of home furnishing and improvement, and other home-related products and services. It also provides basic listing services that enable customers to post information of their products and services on Websites, and special listing services, which offer customized marketing programs involving online listings and offline themed events to real estate agents, brokers, developers, and property owners and managers; and suppliers of home furnishing and improvement and other home-related products and services.
To review potential trading opportunities with SouFun’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of SFUN (SouFun Holdings Limited) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of SFUN (SouFun Holdings Limited)
SFUN may be forming a bearish chart pattern known as a double top. Double tops are reversal patterns and are as simple as they sound: Rallying up to a point (T), selling off to a support, and then rallying back up again to approximately the same top (T).
SFUN appears to have formed a double top price pattern (red) from December of last year until this week. As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. SFUN would confirm its pattern by breaking the $70 support (green) that was created by the double top pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: SFUN has formed a potential double top. A short trade could be made on a break of the $70 level. Since there is no guarantee of a breakdown, a long trade could be made at $70 if a trader is willing to disregard the pattern.
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Short-term interest rates likely to stay near zero for 2 more years

A week after Janet Yellen unnerved financial markets in her first press conference as Fed chair, markets have settled down. The Dow (DJI), which fell 114 points after she suggested the Fed could raise interest rates "something on the order of six months” after ending its asset purchases, has made up for close to half its losses that day. And the 10-Year Treasury yield (^TNX) has dropped slightly, to 2.7% from 2.78%, raising Treasury prices, which move inversely to yields.  (more)

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Thursday, March 27, 2014

Rick Rule – We’re Going To See 300% To 400% Gains From Here

from KingWorldNews:
Eric King: “Rick, we’ve had this pullback off the recent highs in gold. Where are we headed from here?”
Rule: “I think it’s interesting to describe this as a pullback because it depends on the time frame you examine. If you take the period from June of 2013 to today, that pullback actually represents a 12% gain….
“It’s very important for investors to take a longer view of a market so that they remain grounded in reality. The reality is the market is now digesting the gains that it has enjoyed. You know, Eric, that markets need to consolidate, and that’s precisely what we are doing — we’re consolidating.
Rick Rule Continues @ KingWorldNews.com
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Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY)


Incyte Corporation, a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of proprietary small molecule drugs primarily for oncology and inflammation. The company markets JAKAFI, an oral janus associated kinase (JAK) inhibitor for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis (MF), including primary MF, post-polycythemia vera MF, and post-essential thrombocythemia MF. Its product pipe line includes ruxolitinib, a JAK inhibitor, which is in Phase III clinical trial for polycythemia vera; in Phase II trial for pancreatic cancer; and in Phase I trial for the treatment of malignancies, as well as baricitinib, a JAK inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial for rheumatoid arthritis, in Phase IIb trial for psoriasis, and in Phase II trial for diabetic nephropathy.
To review potential trading opportunities with Incyte’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of INCY (Incyte Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of INCY (Incyte Corporation)
A rounding top is a reversal pattern that is as simple as it sounds: After an extended rally, a stock “rolls over” from the left to right by the formation of low peaks to higher peaks back down to lower peaks. The top that is formed looks somewhat like an upside down “U”.
INCY appears to have formed a rounding top price pattern (blue) from the beginning of the year until the end of last week. As with any price pattern, a confirmation of the pattern is needed. INCY confirmed its pattern by breaking the $60 support (red) that was created by the rounding top pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: INCY has broken down from its rounding top and should be moving lower overall. A short trade could be made on any rallies back up to the $60 area, while a long trade could be made if the stock were to break back above the $60 level.
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A Russian REIT and a Polish Play: RUS, EPOL

Steve Halpern: We're here today with Vivian Lewis, Editor of Global Investing. How are you doing today, Vivian?
Vivian Lewis: Great.
Steve Halpern: Welcome. I'd like to talk to you a little about the Global Investing Newsletter, one of the top performing newsletters in the industry. While you search worldwide for investments, you focus on stocks that are readily available for you as investors to buy. Can you explain that strategy?
Vivian Lewis: Yes, when we started, it was just the beginning of something called the American Depository Receipt, which is a thing that banks create from foreign stocks, which are then tradable in the US, so that is our main focus.
But we also include Canadian shares, which are usually offered by US brokers, and increasingly, in the last few years, we've added shares that only trade on foreign markets, but, to which, Americans using discount brokerages can gain access and where the brokerage commission is not excessive. (more)

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McAlvany Weekly Commentary

James Rickards: The Death of Money

About this week’s show:
-Collapse not unprecedented, 3X in last 100 years
-Gold required in crises portfolio
-Buffet dumps Dollars for hard assets
-Previous interview with James Rickards you will not want to miss: Currency Wars and $7,000 Gold
-New to the McAlvany Commetary? – Be sure to sign up for FREE - Click here
-Be sure to order The Death of Money, click below:
The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System


Read | Subscribe@iTunes
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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Why is the Nasdaq Such an Easy Short Here?

When I go through my charts every day, there are a lot of things that I look for. Price is the most important of course, but momentum, moving averages, relative strength and price patterns are just a few of the other details that I try to focus on. The goal with all of this is to find risk/reward opportunities where the reward potential is exponentially greater than the risk involved.
This is why the Nasdaq Composite is such an easy short. Not because trading is easy, but because the risk here is so well-defined, and the reward possibilities are substantially greater. This is all that really matters. Look at the new highs in February and into early March. Momentum was nowhere near confirming them and now momentum is making lower lows.
3-24-2014 COMPQ daily
In my opinion, the big level here is 4250. This represents the highs from January 22 that turned into support throughout the month of March. As long as prices are below that, the Nasdaq Composite is a short all day long. Above that and things get messy skewing the risk/reward ratio away from being in favor of the bears.  (more)
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Get Out Of Gold Stocks -- Right Now

Few investments are driven by psychology and fear as much as gold. Concerns about ruinous inflation, global tensions or economic instability can send investors out of stocks and right into the seemingly safe harbor of gold.
Is the fear trade back on? A double-digit rebound in gold prices since the year began has led some investors to wonder if gold is poised for a great 2014 after a dismal slump in 2013 when gold prices fell more than $400 an ounce. Junior gold miners have fared even better: The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is up roughly 35% in the past three months.
Much of the impetus for an upward move in gold prices was the building tensions in Ukraine, which led to concerns about potential military escalation. It's now apparent that financial sanctions, and not a deepening of a war posture, will characterize the hardening Russia/European Union relationship, and the risk factor is slowly receding. (more)

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Ferro Corporation (NYSE: FOE)

Ferro Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells specialty materials and chemicals in the United States and internationally. The company operates in five segments: Pigments, Powders, and Oxides; Performance Colors and Glass; Performance Coatings; Polymer Additives; and Specialty Plastics. It offers various performance materials, including frits, porcelain and other glass enamels, glazes, stains, decorating colors, pigments, inks, polishing materials, specialty dielectrics, electronic glasses, and other specialty coatings; and performance chemicals comprising polymer additives, engineered plastic compounds, and pigment dispersions. The company’s products are used in appliances, automobiles, building and renovation, electronics, household furnishings, packaging, and industrial products. It sells its products primarily to the manufacturers of ceramic tiles, appliances, construction materials, automobile parts, glass, bottles, and wall coverings directly, as well as through agents and distributors.
To review Ferro’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of FOE (Ferro Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of FOE (Ferro Corporation)
Since November FOE had essentially been trading sideways while forming a common pattern known as a rectangle. A minimum of (2) successful tests of the support and (2) successful tests of the resistance will give you the pattern. FOE’s rectangle pattern had formed a $14 resistance (red) and a $12 support (green). The break above $14 was not only a break out of the pattern, but it was also a new 52-week high.

The Tale of the Tape: FOE broke its rectangle pattern to a new high. The possible long position on the stock would be on a pullback to $14, while a break back below $14 could negate the expectation for higher prices.
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First bank runs in China reported today may signal the start of an old fashioned banking crisis

arabianmoney.net / Peter Cooper / 25 March 2014
There have been runs on two small banks in China with depositors fighting to get through the doors to make withdrawals when they opened. Is this the first crack in the great wall of Chinese credit?
Reuters reported local news about queues outside the Sheyang Rural Commercial Bank in Yancheng yesterday and the Rural Commercial Bank of Huanghai faced similar rushes by depositors today after rumors of insolvency at Sheyang. Officials say it is impossible for a Chinese bank to go bankrupt.
Real estate crash
However, financial institutions have made large loans to private and state developers whose project lie abandoned and their loans cannot be repaid. Where are the banks to find the money to pay out to depositors who want to withdraw their money?
READ MORE
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Nasdaq Biotech Index Re-Plunges To 10-Week Lows

UPDATE: Sure enough the 100DMA was met with buying… for now…
The Nasdaq Biotech index is down 4% from earlier opening highs and is once again testing the 100-day-moving-average that provided some impetus for a modest bounce yesterday. This is a 10-week low level (-14% from Feb highs) and has retraced over 60% of the gains since the Fed announced the taper in December. Volume has been very heavy.
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Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Alex Green: How To Analyze Growth Stocks



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10 Days Of Strength For Crude Coming

The Gold Cycle might be confusing to read, but there is no such lack of clarity with Crude.  The current action makes analysis straightforward because we now have a textbook Cycle low in place.  Very few Daily Cycles make it beyond 45 days, and this slightly longer Cycle was likely compensating for a shorter 1st Daily Cycle.
This deep in a Cycle, key reversals in price almost always turn out to be new Cycles.  We have seen a solid Swing Low result in a clean break of the down-trend, and price end the week with a close above the 10dma.  In addition, our technical indicators turned higher, perfectly supporting a new Cycle.
3-22 Crude Daily
With a 3rd Daily Cycle now in play, we should be prepared to see at least 10 sessions higher before we entertain the possibility of a Left Translated Cycle.  With normal Crude Investor Cycles, we typically see just 3 Daily Cycle span a total of 20-24 weeks.  Excepting the last IC, which was an extended 32 weeks, all recent Crude Cycles have been reliably within that range.  (more)
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LaSalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO)

LaSalle Hotel Properties, a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the purchase, ownership, redevelopment, and leasing of primarily upscale and luxury full-service hotels in convention, resort, and urban business markets in the United States. It owns 34 hotels, totaling approximately 9,200 guest rooms in 15 markets in 11 states and the District of Columbia. The company qualifies as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal corporate income tax to the extent that it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of LHO (Lasalle Hotel Properies) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of LHO (Lasalle Hotel Properies)
LHO has come down to a very important price of $32 based on two different levels of potential support. First, the $32 level itself (red) has simply been key to the stock on multiple occasions already. In addition, LHO is approaching a short-term, up-trending level of support (blue) and that trendline is also sitting at the $32 level.

The Tale of the Tape: LHO has a key area of support at $32. A long trade could be made at $32 with a stop placed below that level of entry. However, if the stock were to break below $32 traders might want to look to get short on the stock.
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Guess which precious metal is controlled by the Russians…

sovereignman.com / by Tim Staermose / March 24, 2014
Palladium is like the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals. It never gets any respect.
If you ask someone about precious metals, in fact, just about everyone has heard of gold and silver. And occasionally platinum.
But palladium is one of those obscure precious metals that few people think about, or even know about.
Aside from actually having its own currency code (XPD), palladium is widely used in a variety of industrial applications, from spark plugs to catalytic converters to hydrocarbon ‘cracking’ to electronic components.
And here’s something most people don’t know: most of the world’s palladium is mined in Russia.
READ MORE
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Gold Price Performance After Golden Crosses In The Last 4 Decades

from Gold Silver Worlds:
Gold’s daily chart is currently showing its 50 day moving average crossing over its 200 day moving average. In technical analysis, this situation is known as a “golden cross”, as it marks an uptrend.
Commonly, the golden cross confirms a new uptrend. One should expect a golden cross to be good news. While we are not saying the opposite, we only point out that not all similar cases in the past have turned out to be very profitable for gold.
Readers know that our focus is to bring unbiased news and analysis. In that respect, the following research, based on facts and figures, should bring an unbiased view on the history of gold’s golden crosses.
Read More @ GoldSilverWorlds.com
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Furious Chinese Demand Money Back As Housing Bubble Pops

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/24/2014 09:24 -0400
Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned or, it seems, like a Chinese real estate speculator who is losing money. After four years of talking (and not doing much) about cooling the hot-money speculation that is the Chinese real-estate bubble (mirroring the US equity market bubble since stock-ownership is low in China), the WSJ reports that the people are restless as the PBOC actually takes actions – and prices are falling. With new project prices down over 20%, ‘homeowners’ exclaim “return our hard-earned money” and “this is very unfair” - who could have seen this coming?
Via WSJ,
After a four-year campaign by the government to cool spiraling property prices, rises inhome prices are starting to slow and in some smaller cities they are weakening.
Growth in average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities moderated in February for the second-straight month though they were still nearly 9% higher compared with a year ago.
But weaker economic growth, slower home sales and rising volumes of unsold houses haveconvinced developers in a number of cities to cut prices to raise cash quickly.
READ MORE
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Monday, March 24, 2014

James Dines – Gold & The Next “Super-Major Bull Market”

kingworldnews.com / March 21, 2014
Today a legend spoke with King World News about a new “Super-Major Bull Market” and what is happening in the gold market.  KWN readers around the world will be stunned by what Dines has identified as the next “Super-Major Bull Market.”  Below is what legendary forecaster, James Dines, had to say in this remarkable interview.
Dines:  “Something very big is happening.  It’s historic, and a great profit opportunity….
READ MORE
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Is The Biotech Bubble Bursting?

zerohedge.com / by Tyler Durden / 03/21/2014 10:43 -0400
Having been among the best performing sectors of the stock market for so long (up around 70% alone last year), the moves of the last few days – and especially today – are extremely worrying for the ‘trend-is-your-friend’ momo-following fickle investing public. The Nasdaq Biotech index is getting monkey-hammered this morning and is now 10% off its late-Feb highs. Crucially, this sector has been a major pillar of strength for the overall Nasdaq and that means the Nasdaq is also getting crushed – now down 0.9% from the FOMC and dramatically underperforming.
The Nasdaq Biotech index is plunging today and down 10% from Feb highs…
READ MORE
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ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: TBT): How to Capitalize on a Bond Fallout in the Next 6 Months

I'm not a fan of the Federal Reserve, and I don't like the role it plays in the free market. Of course, I don't expect the Fed to go away anytime soon, and that reality is something we all have to adjust to. That said, what I am a fan of is smart traders taking advantage of the conditions in the market created in large part by the central bank's manipulation of the money supply and interest rates.
On Wednesday, new Fed Chair Janet Yellen flexed her policymaking muscles atop the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and the result was an interesting reaction in the markets.

First off, the Fed acted as expected and continued the "taper" of its bond buying program. The Fed trimmed its asset purchases by $10 billion per month to $55 billion. Unexpectedly, however, the Fed actually dropped its previous threshold of a 6.5% unemployment rate as a trigger to prompt an interest rate hike. (more)

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The Hidden Costs of Reverse Mortgages

My grandfather liked to use clever sayings to make a point. One of his favorites was, “The same thing, only different!”
As we pulled together this article, I immediately thought of how his funny little saying applied.
When you buy an annuity, you give a private company a sum of money in exchange for its promise to pay you a fixed amount every month until you die. (more)

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US Weekly Economic Calendar

time (et) report period Actual CONSENSUS
forecast
previous
MONDAY, MARCH 24
8:30 am Chicago Fed national activity index Feb. -0.18 3-mo. -- 0.02 3-mo
9:45 am Markit 'flash' PMI March 55.5 -- 57.1
TUESDAY, march 25
9 am Case-Shiller home prices Jan.   -- 13.4% y-o-y
9 am FHFA home prices Jan.   -- 7.7% y-o-y
10 am Consumer confidence index March   78.4 78.1
10 am New home sales Feb.   440,000 468,000
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26
8:30 am Durable goods orders Feb.   0.0% -1.0%
THURSDAY, march 27
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 3-22
320,000 320,000
8:30 am GDP revision 4Q   2.8% 2.4%
10 am Pending home sales Feb.   -- 0.1%
FRIDAY, march 28
8:30 am Personal income Feb.   0.2% 0.3%
8:30 am Consumer spending Feb.   0.3% 0.4%
9:55 am UMich consumer sentiment March   81.0 79.9

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Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD)

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants primarily in the United States. It offers chicken and various food and beverage items, as well as serves bottled beers, wines, and liquor. As of February 4, 2014, the company owned and operated, and franchised approximately 1,000 Buffalo Wild Wings locations in 49 states in the United States, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To review Buffalo’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc.)
Over the last 5 months BWLD had created a strong level of resistance at $152 (blue), which also constituted a 52-week high resistance. A break through that level would most likely mean higher prices for the stock. As you can see from the chart, BWLD finally broke higher yesterday and should be hitting new highs moving forward.

The Tale of the Tape: BWLD broke out to a new 52-week high. A long trade could be made near $152 with a stop placed below that level. A break back below $152 would negate the forecast for a continued move higher.
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Saturday, March 22, 2014

Investing in Mineral Discoveries – March 2014



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“The Market Is Overvalued By 50%-70%” And “Nothing At All” Is Attractively Valued

A month ago we presented a must read interview by Swiss Finanz und Wirtschaft with respected value investor Howard Marks, in which, when explaining the motives driving rational investing he summarized simply, “in the end, the devil always wins.” Today, we are happy to bring our readers the following interview with one of our favorite strategists, GMO’s James Montier, in which true to form, Montier packs no punches,and says that the market is now overvalued by 50% to 70%, adding that there is “nothing at all” that has an attractive valuation, and that he sees a “hideous opportunity set.”
 
Still, despite the clear bubble in stocks, he is unsure what to do since financial repression could last very long with “the average length of periods of financial repression in history is 22 years. We’ve only had five years so far.” Finally on the topic of Japan and Abenomics, “for me, there is too much hope and expectation embedded in Abe, not unlike Obama in 2009: There was so much hope projected into Obama that he could only disappoint.” He did, well… everyone but the 0.001% billionaires. Then again in a world in which there is only hope left, what happens when that too is removed?

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Take These Steps Today To Survive An International Crisis

With the Crimea referendum passed and Russia ready to annex the region, the United States and the European Union have threatened sanctions. The full extent of these sanctions is not yet known, and announcements are pending for the end of March. If these measures are concrete, they will of course be followed inevitably by economic warfare, including a reduction of natural gas exports to the EU and the eventually full dump of the U.S. dollar by Russia and China. As I have discussed in recent articles, the result of these actions will be disastrous.
For those of us in the liberty movement, it is now impossible to ignore the potential threat to our economy. No longer can people claim that “perhaps” there will be a crisis someday, that perhaps “five or 10 years” down the road we will have to face the music. No, the threat is here now, and it is very real.
The loss of the dollar’s world reserve status will destroy the only thread holding up its value, namely, investor faith. There are only two possible outcomes from that point onward:
A) The U.S. will be forced to default because no nation will purchase our Treasury bonds and support our debt spending, causing the dollar’s value to implode.
B) The Fed will choose to restart and expand quantitative easing measures, confiscate pension funds, raid bank accounts or issue new taxes in order to keep the system afloat; this will also end in the eventual collapse of dollar value and hyperinflation.
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The Vast Majority Will Face Starvation — Alasdair MacLeod



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An LBMA Default Was Delayed, But It’s Coming: Andrew Maguire

kingworldnews.com / March 21, 2014
Today London metals trader Andrew Maguire told King World News that an LBMA default was delayed by Western central planners, but it is coming, despite the West’s frantic efforts to avoid it.  Below is what Maguire had to say in Part I of an incredibly powerful series of interviews that will be released today.
Maguire:  “The net result of all of this (gold) leasing activity means that the bullion which is still showing on the central banks’ books as an asset has more than one claim on it.  Worse, the bullion banks don’t have the gold to repay them….
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Insider Selling Reaches 25-year High as Smart Money Dumps Stocks Before The Coming Crash

Ever noticed how a few smart entrepreneurs always manage to sell out in a boom before the bust? In the stock market this is even more apparent and surprise, surprise, insider selling always reaches a climax just before the crash.
The adjusted 25-year high insider index is flashing red right now. It’s a leading indicator, and usually signals imminent danger.
Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest concludes: ‘There have been two prior occasions when the adjusted insider ratio got almost as bearish as it is today — early 2007 and early 2011.
Danger signal
‘The first came a half a year before the beginning of the worst bear market since the 1930s. While the market didn’t fall as much following the second of these two instances, the May-October decline in 2011 did satisfy — based on intraday levels of the S&P 500 index — the semi-official definition of a bear market as a 20 per cent drop.’
After all, who knows more about a company and its business than the people running it? Or at least they ought to. Profits today reflect orders taken many months ago, and executives know from their order books when things are starting to go awry.
This is perfectly legal. Executives are only guilty of a wrongful insider transaction under US law if they act on information that should first have been disclosed to the public, such as an earnings announcement or takeover deal.
Insider selling is currently highest in capital goods, technology, consumer durables (such as automobiles, construction and appliances) and consumer non-durables (food and beverages, clothing and tobacco). It’s lowest in energy, industrials and financials, though you have to wonder how the banks would hold up if stocks really took a dive.
Profit forecasts
It would be very interesting to read a covert survey of how insiders currently view the profits’ outlook for their own companies. That’s probably the main reason for them selling out.
Stocks, investors should recall are valued in terms of multiples of their future profits. If the company profits are heading down, so are their share values. Profit multiples that are applied to reach valuations also looked stretched by comparison to stock market history.
Selling out when your company is trading at peak profits and overvalued by the market always makes good business sense. For how long will it be before that opportunity comes again, if it ever does?
- See more at: http://newswatch.us/insider-selling-reaches-25-year-high-as-smart-money-dumps-stocks-before-the-coming-crash/#sthash.gsPKEW02.dpuf
Ever noticed how a few smart entrepreneurs always manage to sell out in a boom before the bust? In the stock market this is even more apparent and surprise, surprise, insider selling always reaches a climax just before the crash.

The adjusted 25-year high insider index is flashing red right now. It’s a leading indicator, and usually signals imminent danger.

Mark Hulbert of Hulbert Financial Digest concludes: ‘There have been two prior occasions when the adjusted insider ratio got almost as bearish as it is today — early 2007 and early 2011.

Danger signal

‘The first came a half a year before the beginning of the worst bear market since the 1930s. While the market didn’t fall as much following the second of these two instances, the May-October decline in 2011 did satisfy — based on intraday levels of the S&P 500 index — the semi-official definition of a bear market as a 20 per cent drop.’

After all, who knows more about a company and its business than the people running it? Or at least they ought to. Profits today reflect orders taken many months ago, and executives know from their order books when things are starting to go awry.

This is perfectly legal. Executives are only guilty of a wrongful insider transaction under US law if they act on information that should first have been disclosed to the public, such as an earnings announcement or takeover deal.

Insider selling is currently highest in capital goods, technology, consumer durables (such as automobiles, construction and appliances) and consumer non-durables (food and beverages, clothing and tobacco). It’s lowest in energy, industrials and financials, though you have to wonder how the banks would hold up if stocks really took a dive.

Profit forecasts

It would be very interesting to read a covert survey of how insiders currently view the profits’ outlook for their own companies. That’s probably the main reason for them selling out.

Stocks, investors should recall are valued in terms of multiples of their future profits. If the company profits are heading down, so are their share values. Profit multiples that are applied to reach valuations also looked stretched by comparison to stock market history.

Selling out when your company is trading at peak profits and overvalued by the market always makes good business sense. For how long will it be before that opportunity comes again, if it ever does?
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Harry Dent -- Timetable For The Next Collapse



Alex welcomes the founder of economic forecasting firm Dent Research, Harry S. Dent, Jr. to discuss why he thinks the Dow Jones industrial average may spike at 17,000 then make a rapid descent to 6,000 by 2016 and why the bankers need to a hit on this one instead of being bailed out.

Harry Dent of HS Dent Investment Management explains why he predicts a market crash in the third quarter of the year and that the U.S. is headed towards bankruptcy. Stock Market.. an aging Bull Market? Real Estate Party Over? Invest In Gold? Europe Crash Impact? The Government Has To Fail... Survive and Prosper in 2013 with Harry Dent. 
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9 Secrets for Successful Speculation

When I started working for Doug Casey almost 10 years ago, I probably knew as much about investing as the average Joe, but I now know that I knew absolutely nothing then about successful speculation.
Learning from the international speculator himself — and from his business partner, David Galland, to give credit where due — was like taking the proverbial drink from a fire hose. Fortunately, I was quite thirsty.
You see, just before Doug and David hired me in 2004, I’d had something of an epiphany. As a writer, most of what I was doing at the time was grant-proposal writing, asking wealthy philanthropists to support causes I believed in. (more)

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Friday, March 21, 2014

Charles Nenner: Why the Dow Jones Will Fall to 5,000



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This 'Bargain' Oil Giant Offers 75%-Plus Upside: Petroleo Brasilero (NYSE: PBR)

Last summer, I wrote about an odd disconnect between rising oil prices and a strong U.S. dollar.
Since then, that disconnect has dissipated. The dollar has appreciated about 6% to 7%, and inversely, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) has fallen at about the same rate. Two of my recommendations, Valero (NYSE: VLO) and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), have gone up an average of 32%.
The third recommendation was integrated Brazilian oil producer Petroleo Brasilero (NYSE: PBR),aka Petrobras. Since then, the stock has fallen 26%.
Do I still like it? More than ever.
Another BRIC Faces Adversity
Not long ago, Brazil and its fellow BRIC nations were the world's fastest-growing emerging-market economies.  (more)

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NatGas Poised To Slide To $4; That’s Good If You’re A Buyer

Natural gas inventories fell by 48 bcf last week, below expectations.

Natural gas was last trading higher by close to 3 percent to $4.35/mmbtu after the Energy Information Administration reported that operators withdrew 48 billion cubic feet from storage last week, below the 55 to 60 bcf that most analysts were expecting.
The latest withdrawal was below last year’s draw of 62 bcf, but above the five-year average draw of 30 bcf.





In turn, inventories now stand at 953 bcf, which is 923 bcf below the year-ago level and 875 bcf below the five-year average (calculated using a slightly different methodology than the EIA). (more)

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Teradata Corporation (NYSE: TDC)

Teradata Corporation provides analytic data platforms, marketing and analytic applications, and related consulting services in the United States and internationally. Its analytic data platforms comprise software, hardware, and related business consulting and support services for data warehousing, active intelligence, big data analytics, and data discovery. The company’s products comprise Teradata Analytic Database Software that delivers near real-time intelligence; Teradata Workload-Specific Platforms; Teradata Aster Discovery Platform, which is pre-configured with Teradata Aster Database; and Teradata Logical Data Models that are blueprints for designing an integrated data warehouse.
To review Teradata’s stock, please take a look at the 1-year chart of TDC (Teradata Corporation) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of TDC (Teradata Corporation)
TDC has been trading sideways for the last 4-5 months. Over that period of time the stock has formed a clear resistance level at $48 (purple). In addition, the stock has also created a strong level of support at $40 (blue). At some point the stock will have to break one of the two levels the rectangle pattern has created.

The Tale of the Tape: TDC has clear levels of support ($40) and resistance ($48). The possible long positions on the stock would be either on a pullback to $40, or on a breakout above $48. The ideal short opportunities would be on either a break below $40 or on a rally back up to $48.
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The Euro Chart

This is a big one. I think the weekly chart of $EURUSD is telling us a lot as we hit levels not seen since 2011. A failure up here could mean trouble for European stocks, and really stocks as an entire asset class.
Here are the weekly candles for $EURUSD – I don’t think it’s a coincidence that we’re failing exactly at this downtrend line from the 2008 highs:
3-20-14 eurusd weekly
Every time prices rally up to this downtrend line, the $EURUSD fails very hard. The first time in 2008 we saw a 23% sell-off in the currency. After failing up there again in 2011, euro fell 20%. What’s going to happen this time?
If this week’s failure is just that, then I would imagine European stocks will also come off. The currency and their stocks are very highly correlated over the past year. If you run the numbers, the Euro and Euro Stoxx 50 (FXE/FEZ) have a 0.9% positive correlation.
Meanwhile, European stocks are very highly correlated to US Stocks as well. We see a 0.94% positive correlation between Euro Stoxx 50 and S&P500 (FEZ/SPY). So I don’t think it matters whether you trade currencies or US stocks, this is a chart that we all need to be watching.
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Thursday, March 20, 2014

David Gurwitz at Nenner Research – We Are All Slaves Of The Cycles

from Financial Survival Network
David Gurwitz says that when it comes to investing in stocks, gold, silver or anything else, the most important thing is to catch the cycle right. Right now he’s concerned about the hundred year war cycle. The second decade of every new century has always seen a major world war, going back hundreds of years. He expects this one to be no different. Perhaps he’s right, in which case you need to be prepared.
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The Canadian Dollar Sell-off Should Continue

One of my favorite charts in the world is still the $USDCAD weekly. After a monster breakout to start the year, prices have been consolidating very nicely throughout the past couple of months.
Here are the weekly candlesticks for US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar. Look at the multi-year base that it’s been putting in since 2009. Big round bottoms like this create some of the most powerful trends:
3-18-14 USDCAD
Notice the 40-week moving average flatten out a few years ago and then turning higher early last year.  (more)

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Russian Sanctions May Create Serious Supply Shortages For Platinum and Palladium

Any sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. on the export of Russian palladium group metals would create a serious supply shortage that may be difficult for industries to replace. This year will show the third consecutive deficit year in global palladium supply, according to a Bloomberg Industries  survey of analysts.
Russia provided 44% of global palladium supply and 13.6% of platinum last year, according to Johnson Matthey.
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The Cooper Companies, Inc. (NYSE: COO)

The Cooper Companies, Inc. operates as a medical device company worldwide. The company develops, manufactures, and markets a range of contact lenses, including spherical lenses and toric and multifocal lenses that correct near and farsightedness, as well as address various complex visual defects, such as astigmatism and presbyopia. It also offers medical devices, diagnostic products, and surgical instruments and accessories for healthcare professionals and institutions to support healthcare delivery to women in hospitals, clinician offices, and fertility clinics. The company markets its products through field sales representatives, independent agents, and distributors
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of COO (The Cooper Companies, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of COO (The Cooper Companies, Inc.)
Over the last 6 months COO has created a clear level of resistance at $135 (blue). During that same period of time the stock has also created a trendline of support (red) that has been heading lower since August. If the stock’s pattern holds true, COO should be preparing to drop to new lows of the pattern.

The Tale of the Tape: COO has a key area of resistance at $135. A long trade could be made on a break above $135 with a stop placed below that level of entry. However, short traders might want to look to get into the stock soon in expectation of an eventual fall back down to the trendline support.
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The 'Dow Jones of China' is About to Reach a Bargain Level: iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI)

Trading stocks is often an exercise in pattern recognition. Certainly, this is how the chartists earn their keep, as charts will often tell you much of what you need to know about the potential future of a stock or ETF.
I say "potential" because no prior pattern in a chart guarantees a future outcome. And while nothing in the investing game is guaranteed, smart traders can put the power of probability, logic and past patterns on their side.
The pattern that's jumping out at me right now is in the iShares China Large-Cap (NYSE: FXI).
This ETF tracks the FTSE China 25 Index, which is comprised of 25 large-cap Chinese equities that trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Think of FXI as the Dow Jones Industrial Average of China. Its top holdings include Tencent Holdings, China Construction Bank and China Mobile.
As you can see in the chart below, over the past two years, shares have been on a roller-coaster ride.
China ETF FXI Chart
While the price action may seem a bit schizophrenic at first, a pattern emerges upon a closer look.  (more)
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Market Outlook: Dow Theory Still Flashing a Warning Signal

All major U.S. stock indices closed lower for the week of March 10, basically giving back all of the previous week's gains. The market was led lower last week by the blue-chip Dow industrials, which lost 2.4%, leaving the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 as the only two major indices that are still in positive territory for 2014, up 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, year to date.

U.S. stocks were particularly weak on Thursday, with the S&P 500 suffering its worst day since early February on rising tensions between Ukraine and Russia and concerns about a slowdown in China. Regarding the latter, I am expecting at least an additional 2.2% decline in China's Hang Seng Index to 21,000.  (more)

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Pacira Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: PCRX)

Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, commercializes, and manufactures pharmaceutical products for use in hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers worldwide. It develops pharmaceutical products based on its proprietary DepoFoam drug delivery technology. The company markets EXPAREL, a liposome injection of bupivacaine, an amide-type local anesthetic, indicated for administration into the surgical site to produce postsurgical analgesia; and DepoCyt(e), a liposomal formulation of the chemotherapeutic agent cytarabine indicated for the intrathecal treatment of lymphomatous meningitis, a cancer of the immune system.
Please take a look at the 1-year chart of PCRX (Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) below with my added notations:
1-year chart of PCRX (Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc.)
PCRX has reached a very important price of $70 based on two different levels of potential support. First, the $70 level itself (purple) has simply been key to the stock on multiple occasions already. In addition, PCRX is approaching a potential up-trending level of support (blue) and that trendline is also getting close to the $70 level.

The Tale of the Tape: PCRX has a key area of support at $70. A long trade could be made at $70 with a stop placed below that level of entry. However, if the stock were to break below $70 traders might want to look to get short on the stock.
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Chart of the Day - IGI Laboratories (IGI)

The Chart of the Day is IGI Laboratories (IG). I found the stock by sorting the All Time High list for frequency in the last month, skipped the stocks that didn't have a positive gain for the last week and month. Last I used the Flipchart feature to review the charts. I skipped a lot of charts till I found one I liked. Since the Trend Spotter signaled a buy on 2/20 the stock gained 47.78%.
IG is the premier global provider of a novel topical patented delivery technology. In addition to having the innovative Novasome delivery technology, their capabilities include: product development, analytical services, commercial manufacturing and the packaging of their topical liquid and semi-solid products. Their expert services will ensure that their product achieves its maximum potential. IGI currently holds 56 U.S. patents, and has more than 100+ products commercialized. In the marketplace, their products continue to demonstrate their value by offering superior results and product differentiation to their customers.

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