Saturday, July 11, 2015

Silver at the Mercy of China’s Stock Market

from Dan Norcini:
Silver’s fate will be determined over the next few weeks by the events unfolding around China’s stock market.
If their equity markets stabilize, and if it looks as if the worst is over, silver will stabilize as well. If not, then neither will silver.
The reason is simple – the further the stock market of China falls, the more concerns will grow about slowing global growth overall, but especially growth in China, which is the world’s largest consumers of most raw materials and many commodities. Poor demand never bodes well for commodities, and silver is no exception.
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Have Oil Stocks Bottomed? XLE

The oil sector has been selling off lately...
The price of oil has fallen around 10% over the past two weeks. It closed Tuesday near $53 per barrel. But that's still about 15% higher than its January low.
Meanwhile, the general decline in the broad stock market is putting pressure on oil stocks. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has fallen more than 10% in the past two months. It closed Tuesday at just more than $74 per share – the same price it was back in January.
In other words... oil is up 15% since January, but oil stocks are trading at the same price. So it's time to ask the question... Have oil stocks bottomed? (more)

More Downside Potential in Precious Metals Complex

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by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
The Daily Gold

The precious metals sector is enduring losses for the third straight week. The gold miners and Silver have led the way down, though Silver has rallied over the past two sessions. Gold has also rallied yet remains dangerously close to making a new weekly low for the bear market. While the metals recovered some losses on Wednesday and Thursday, the gold miners failed to generate anything positive and closed near their lows for each session. The inability of the miners to recover to even a small degree augurs badly for the entire sector in the days ahead.
Continued weakness in the miners is not much of a surprise considering they are breaking down from their 2008 and 2014 lows. We plot monthly bars below for GDM (forerunner to GDX) and the HUI. GDM closed at 468 and lacks strong support until 400. The HUI is in full blown breakdown mode and does not have strong support until the low 100s.
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WASDE Report for 7/10/15

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 58 million bushels this month on larger beginning stocks and production. A 10-million-bushel decrease in imports is partially offsetting. Production is raised on increased spring wheat production that more than offsets decreases for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White Wheat. Overall yields for spring wheat are forecast above average. Feed and residual use for all wheat in 2015/16 is raised 5 million bushels to 200 million on the larger crop. All wheat exports for 2015/16 are raised 25 million bushels to 950 million on increased U.S. supplies and reduced wheat production in Canada. 

These exports would be up 11 percent from the low level of 2014/15, but still well below the 5-year average. Ending stocks are raised 28 million bushels to 842 million, the largest since the 2010/11. Despite higher stocks, the season-average price is raised 35 cents to $4.75 to $5.75 per bushel on recently higher cash and futures prices and the rising outlook for corn prices, particularly in the summer months when a majority of this year’s wheat crop will be marketed. Global wheat supplies for 2015/16 are raised 12.1 million tons primarily on increased beginning stocks. (more)

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How to Screen For Strongest Stocks in Strongest Sectors – Swing Trading

The video shows how to easily find the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors to buy, or how to find the weakest stocks in the weakest sectors to sell/short using FINVIZ and other free sites.
Many traders look to buy very strong stocks because they have proven they can move aggressively to the upside, as well sell/short very weak stocks because they offer big moves to the downside.
We can’t just buy and sell the strongest or weakest stock though. I show you how to find these “potential trade” stocks and then quickly zero in on which ones are providing trades, based on your strategy, right now.
Fine tune the list even more by adding in additional criteria on the screener to suit your individual preferences.
This stock screening process is intended for swing traders (day traders may find it useful as well), and the strategies should be based on a technical approach. Look to capture a strong move over a short period of time, such as a few days to a few weeks. This is not an investment strategy.

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